CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSuncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FLFort Myers Tip-Off - Palms Division
Northern Iowa
Efficiency #64
2025-26: 23-13 · 15-9 conf
vs
Davidson
Efficiency #112
2025-26: 20-14 · 11-9 conf
Mon, Nov 23 · 11:00 AM ET
66.3
win 60%
Projected
63.3
win 40%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNI −3.0 · total 129.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Davidson 65.9, Northern Iowa 64.9 → 62.5 possessions
−12.7
Davidson offense vs Northern Iowa defense
−4.5
Northern Iowa offense vs Davidson defense
−1.5
Projected total
129.5
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Davidson offense vs Northern Iowa defense
−4.5
Northern Iowa offense vs Davidson defense
+1.5
Northern Iowa by 3.0
3.0
Northern Iowa side ◂▸ Davidson side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Davidson.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 62.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Davidson is the faster team (64.2, #351 of 365) and Northern Iowa the slower (63.4, #362). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
62.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
129.5
model
Projected team totals
66.3 / 63.3
Northern Iowa / Davidson
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
64.9#365
Northern Iowa
65.9#343
Davidson
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Davidson averages 64.2 possessions per 40, Northern Iowa 63.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNorthern Iowa
Where Northern Iowa struggles: the offensive glass
Northern Iowa rebounds 21.8% of its own misses (#357); Davidson lets opponents grab 30.0% of their own misses (#157). Expect about 24.2%, 6.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageDavidson
Where Davidson struggles: the offensive glass
Davidson rebounds 28.1% of its own misses (#265); Northern Iowa lets opponents grab 26.5% of their own misses (#24). Expect about 26.9%, 3.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Northern Iowa's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Northern Iowa at about 37.4% of its shots from three, Davidson about 45.0%.
Northern Iowa has the ball
OffenseDavidson allowsvs D1 avg
53.8% #73
50.6% #132
+1.6 pt/100
14.4% #41
17.5% #121
+1.0 pt/100
21.8% #357
30.0% #157
-3.8 pt/100
25.6% #362
37.1% #240
-0.4 pt/100
69.2% #294
—
-0.3 pt/100
Northern Iowa net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100
Davidson has the ball
OffenseNorthern Iowa allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #121
47.5% #31
-1.7 pt/100
15.8% #121
18.0% #96
-0.3 pt/100
28.1% #265
26.5% #24
-2.1 pt/100
31.0% #283
29.6% #53
-0.6 pt/100
63.9% #365
—
-0.7 pt/100
Davidson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersNorthern Iowaoffense vsDavidsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
39.9
7.0
14.4
38.7
Davidson allows
39.3
8.9
16.2
35.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#90 | 57.2%#119 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#82 | 36.5%#101 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.5%#44 | 39.2%#207 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#136 | 32.6%#92 | 33.7% |
Davidsonoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Davidson shoots
30.3
9.6
15.3
44.8
Northern Iowa allows
37.3
7.5
14.2
41.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#146 | 56.5%#99 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#80 | 43.4%#257 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.2%#50 | 38.1%#164 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.4%#92 | 29.1%#3 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersNorthern Iowa
0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#179 of 365
Off reb %
21.8%
#357
Def reb %
73.5%
#24
Turnover %
14.4%
#41
Forced TO %
18.0%
#96
FT rate
25.6%
#362
FT allowed
29.6%
#53
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.8
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Davidson
−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#216 of 365
Off reb %
28.1%
#265
Def reb %
70.0%
#157
Turnover %
15.8%
#121
Forced TO %
17.5%
#121
FT rate
31.0%
#283
FT allowed
37.1%
#240
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Northern Iowa has more extra scoring chances per game: 0.0 (#179 of 365) to Davidson’s −0.8 (#216).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Northern Iowa2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Leon Bond III | F | Jr | 6'5" | 36-36 | 32.8 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 53.9% | 36.2% | 3.5 | 75.0% | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Ben Schwieger | F | Sr | 6'8" | 36-21 | 27.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 37.2% | 2.6 | 68.4% | 21.9% | |
| 13 | Will Hornseth | F | So | 6'8" | 35-35 | 26.3 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 60.9% | 44.4% | 0.3 | 52.7% | 25.8% | |
| 3 | Max Weisbrod | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 27.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 4.7 | 84.0% | 14.6% | |
| 14 | Tristan Smith | F | Sr | 6'6" | 28-21 | 21.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 55.1% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 67.8% | 26.5% | |
| 22 | Kyle Pock | F | Jr | 6'6" | 34-1 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 52.3% | 34.5% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 17.4% | |
| 11 | Ismael Diouf | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-1 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 1.3 | 63.6% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | RJ Taylor | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-0 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 55.2% | 37.5% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 14.9% | |
| 2 | Geon Hutchins | G | Fr | 6'4" | 35-0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 44.0% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 16.0% | |
| 20 | Chase Courbat | F | Sr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 13.8% | |
| 30 | Hunter Jacobson | G | Jr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.5 | — | 21.2% | |
| 15 | Cade Courbat | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Jalen Wilson | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Levi Valdo | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Marino Dubravcic | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Redek Born | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Davidson2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Parker Friedrichsen | G | Jr | 6'4" | 34-33 | 25.3 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54.1% | 40.5% | 4.9 | 75.0% | 26.1% | |
| 4 | Josh Scovens | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-33 | 24.8 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 57.4% | 36.7% | 0.9 | 63.9% | 26.6% | |
| 11 | Sam Brown | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 23.7 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 43.2% | 27.2% | 3.9 | 69.6% | 25.6% | |
| 45 | Roberts Blums | G | So | 6'4" | 32-0 | 22.3 | 12.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.6% | 40.7% | 5.9 | 63.6% | 31.7% | |
| 3 | Nick Coval | G | Fr | 6'2" | 33-3 | 19.4 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58.0% | 36.5% | 2.2 | 84.3% | 19.6% | |
| 12 | Hunter Adam | G | Jr | 6'7" | 33-1 | 15.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 63.1% | 39.4% | 2.8 | 76.0% | 19.2% | |
| 16 | Ian Platteeuw | G | Fr | 7'0" | 31-26 | 15.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 43.8% | 21.8% | |
| 15 | Sean Logan | F | Sr | 6'10" | 26-7 | 15.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50.6% | 28.6% | 0.3 | 37.8% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | JaQualon Roberts | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 11.1% | 0.3 | 61.5% | 17.1% | |
| 0 | Manie Joses | F | So | 6'7" | 31-6 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 59.3% | 23.8% | 0.7 | 75.0% | 10.9% | |
| 7 | RJ Greer | G | Fr | 6'3" | 17-0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 56.4% | 42.9% | 1.6 | 93.3% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | Joe Hurlburt | G | Sr | 6'11" | 8-1 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 42.9% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 25.0% | 18.4% | |
| 51 | Brock Matheny | G | Sr | 5'10" | 5-1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 1.0 | — | 23.7% | |
| 14 | Phillip Kavu | G | Fr | 6'2" | 4-0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 20.8% | |
| 50 | John Nowland | F | Jr | 6'8" | 4-0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | — | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 19.1% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Northern Iowa2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Leon Bond III | F | Jr | 6'5" | 36-36 | 32.8 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 53.9% | 36.2% | 3.5 | 75.0% | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Ben Schwieger | F | Sr | 6'8" | 36-21 | 27.8 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 54.8% | 37.2% | 2.6 | 68.4% | 21.9% | |
| 13 | Will Hornseth | F | So | 6'8" | 35-35 | 26.3 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 60.9% | 44.4% | 0.3 | 52.7% | 25.8% | |
| 3 | Max Weisbrod | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-29 | 27.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 4.7 | 84.0% | 14.6% | |
| 14 | Tristan Smith | F | Sr | 6'6" | 28-21 | 21.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 55.1% | 27.3% | 0.4 | 67.8% | 26.5% | |
| 22 | Kyle Pock | F | Jr | 6'6" | 34-1 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 52.3% | 34.5% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 17.4% | |
| 11 | Ismael Diouf | F | Sr | 6'9" | 35-1 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 1.3 | 63.6% | 22.2% | |
| 10 | RJ Taylor | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-0 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 55.2% | 37.5% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 14.9% | |
| 2 | Geon Hutchins | G | Fr | 6'4" | 35-0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 44.0% | 30.8% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 16.0% | |
| 20 | Chase Courbat | F | Sr | 6'10" | 14-0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 62.5% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 13.8% | |
| 30 | Hunter Jacobson | G | Jr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.5 | — | 21.2% | |
| 15 | Cade Courbat | G | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Jalen Wilson | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Levi Valdo | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Marino Dubravcic | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Redek Born | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Northern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
18-17
Home
7-9
Road
8-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +4.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 9 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-21
Home
7-9
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.2
Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
| Feb 21 | S Illinois | H | L 57–59 | −6.5 | L−8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 92.9 | 96.2 | 61.3 |
| Feb 18 | Indiana St | A | W 81–60 | −5.0 | W+16.0 | 135.5 | O141 | 124.6 | 92.3 | 65.0 |
| Feb 15 | Drake | H | W 86–62 | −8.5 | W+15.5 | 138.5 | O148 | 131.0 | 94.5 | 65.6 |
Davidson
Against the spread
Season
14-16-2
Home
5-9-2
Road
8-4
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −0.7
Covered the last gameCovered 0 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-18-1
Home
8-7-1
Road
4-8
Last 10
2-7-1
avg vs total −6.7
Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Oklahoma St | A | L 80–84 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O164 | 109.2 | 114.6 | 73.3 |
| Mar 13 | Saint Joseph's | N | L 58–70 | +2.0 | L−10.0 | 132.5 | U128 | 95.0 | 114.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 12 | Loyola Chicago | N | W 64–59 OT | −5.5 | L−0.5 | 132.5 | U123 | 96.6 | 89.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | St Bonaventure | A | W 68–63 | +5.0 | W+10.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 106.0 | 98.2 | 64.2 |
| Mar 4 | Saint Joseph's | H | L 67–70 | −2.5 | L−5.5 | 137.0 | P137 | 102.1 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 1 | La Salle | H | W 71–64 | −11.0 | L−4.0 | 133.5 | O135 | 105.3 | 95.0 | 67.4 |
| Feb 25 | Duquesne | A | W 67–56 | +3.5 | W+14.5 | 143.0 | U123 | 102.2 | 85.4 | 65.6 |
| Feb 21 | Fordham | A | L 59–63 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 132.0 | U122 | 98.4 | 105.1 | 60.0 |
| Feb 18 | Richmond | H | W 65–63 | −5.0 | L−3.0 | 140.5 | U128 | 101.9 | 98.8 | 63.8 |
| Feb 15 | Dayton | A | L 59–70 | +5.0 | L−6.0 | 140.0 | U129 | 97.0 | 115.1 | 60.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorthern IowaDavidson
Efficiency
108.6
108.7
101.0
105.9
64.9
65.9
—
—
Shooting
53.8%
52.6%
54.9%
52.2%
34.7%
35.4%
69.2%
63.9%
25.6%
31.0%
Ball control & glass
14.4%
15.8%
18.0%
17.5%
21.8%
28.1%
26.5%
30.0%
8.8%
9.1%
8.3%
9.6%
Style
39.1%
44.5%
47.2%
40.0%
8.9%
11.2%
56.6%
53.6%
27.0%
45.0%
Roster
3.24
2.51
6'5.9"
6'5.7"
83.4%
88.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorthern Iowa
Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 81.2%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Levi Valdo no D1 minutes last season
- Marino Dubravcic no D1 minutes last season
- Redek Born no D1 minutes last season
- Jalen Wilson no D1 minutes last season
- Cade Courbat no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Davidson
Returning minutes: 88.5%Returning production: 91.2%
Lost
- Devin Brown 23.4 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.