St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs App State Mountaineers basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 23 · 11:00 AM ET · State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL (neutral site)

ESPN Events Invitational - Adventure BracketNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPN2State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL

St Bonaventure

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #118

App State

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #155

Mon, Nov 23 · 11:00 AM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 63.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, St Bonaventure is the faster team (68.6, #248 of 365) and App State the slower (59.4, #359). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

63.8

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.7#244

St Bonaventure

64.6#365

App State

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

App State has the ball−6.1

St Bonaventure has the ball+5.4

App State has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.9% #282 · SBU allows 42.4% #47−7.0

✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.4% #34 · SBU allows 33.0% #214+3.0

✗Coughs it upTO% 21.0% #272 · SBU forces 19.0% #137 · ~13 turnovers−1.6

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 34.0% #215 · SBU allows 37.8% #192 · FT 63.9% #272−0.4

St Bonaventure has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 39.7% #51 · APP allows 37.7% #288+3.4

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.5% #163 · APP forces 13.5% #302 · ~9 turnovers+2.7

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 37.0% #173 · APP allows 30.4% #107 · FT 52.3% #347−1.3

✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.1% #68 · APP allows 43.9% #66+0.6

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

St Bonaventureoffense vsApp Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

St Bonaventure shoots

40.8

11.2

17.3

30.6

App State allows

37.2

12.8

17.0

33.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	72.5%#32	51.4%#93	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.4%#173	33.3%#125	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.3%#164	12.5%#34	34.7%
Three	40.0%#56	31.0%#146	32.5%

App Stateoffense vsSt Bonaventuredefense

Share of shots by zone

App State shoots

22.2

3.3

18.9

55.6

St Bonaventure allows

36.0

8.0

10.0

46.0

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.0%#104	44.4%#34	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	33.3%#183	37.5%#178	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	47.1%#75	0.0%#1	34.7%
Three	25.9%#290	32.1%#169	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

St Bonaventure

+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#129 of 365

Off reb %

39.7%

#51

Def reb %

67.0%

#214

Turnover %

17.5%

#163

Forced TO %

19.0%

#137

FT rate

37.0%

#173

FT allowed

37.8%

#192

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.7

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed0.0

App State

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365

Off reb %

41.4%

#34

Def reb %

62.3%

#288

Turnover %

21.0%

#272

Forced TO %

13.5%

#302

FT rate

34.0%

#215

FT allowed

30.4%

#107

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.3

Defensive rebounding−2.0

Ball security−2.0

Forcing turnovers−3.3

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.0

St Bonaventure has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.4 (#129 of 365) to App State’s −2.9 (#223).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

St Bonaventure2026-27 numbers · last game: Canisius, Nov 7

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
18	G	Sr	6'4"	2-2	27.0	29	—	Started last	22.0	3.0	4.0	0.5	95.0%	66.7%	6.0	66.7%	27.1%
11	G	Jr	6'7"	2-2	26.5	28	—	Started last	9.5	8.0	1.0	2.0	46.7%	40.0%	2.5	55.6%	25.5%
8	G	Jr	6'3"	2-2	25.0	27	—	Started last	9.5	2.5	2.0	2.0	44.1%	33.3%	1.5	50.0%	28.7%
24	C	Sr	6'10"	2-2	24.0	28	—	Started last	12.5	7.0	1.0	3.0	84.6%	—	0.0	75.0%	25.3%
1	G	So	6'6"	2-2	22.5	28	—	Started last	4.0	4.5	4.5	2.5	36.4%	33.3%	3.0	—	20.6%
4	F	Fr	6'8"	2-0	18.0	18	—	Bench	4.0	4.5	0.5	0.5	44.4%	0.0%	0.5	0.0%	17.8%
5	G	Sr	5'11"	2-0	14.5	16	—	Bench	3.0	1.0	2.0	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.2%
30	F	Jr	6'9"	2-0	13.0	11	—	Bench	4.0	2.5	0.5	0.5	66.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	19.0%
3	G	Fr	6'6"	2-0	12.5	8	—	Bench	5.0	4.5	0.0	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	2.0	50.0%	34.9%
20	G	So	6'5"	1-0	12.0	7	—	Bench	3.0	5.0	0.0	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	4.0	—	25.3%
12	F	Fr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	1	—	Bench	2.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.6%
17	C	Fr	6'9"	1-0	6.0	—	—	Active	5.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	66.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	39.9%
15	G	Sr	6'0"	1-0	4.0	—	—	Active	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
10	G	Fr	6'0"	1-0	4.0	—	—	Active	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	15.2%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

St Bonaventure

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-1

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +5.8

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-1

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −7.5

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	CanisiusAdjEM #365	A	W 88–49	−9.0	W+30.0	148.5	U137	133.0	74.1	66.2
Nov 2	Youngstown StAdjEM #167	H	L 71–79	−10.5	L−18.5	153.5	U150	100.0	111.3	71.0
Mar 13	DaytonAdjEM #99	N	L 63–68	+5.0	P0.0	142.0	U131	95.7	103.3	65.8
Mar 12	George MasonAdjEM #80	N	W 63–57	+2.5	W+8.5	142.5	U120	103.5	93.7	60.9
Mar 11	La SalleAdjEM #266	N	W 99–80	−5.5	W+13.5	145.5	O179	138.9	112.3	71.3
Mar 7	DavidsonAdjEM #97	H	L 63–68	−5.0	L−10.0	142.0	U131	98.2	106.0	64.2
Mar 4	G WashingtonAdjEM #39	A	L 82–91 OT	+7.5	L−1.5	157.0	O173	103.7	115.1	79.1
Feb 28	George MasonAdjEM #80	A	L 58–71	+3.5	L−9.5	147.0	U129	97.9	119.8	59.3
Feb 26	Rhode IslandAdjEM #69	H	W 94–76	−3.0	W+15.0	143.0	O170	134.7	108.9	69.8
Feb 21	RichmondAdjEM #86	A	L 94–99	+1.0	L−4.0	148.5	O193	128.0	134.8	73.4

App State

Against the spread

Season

2-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

2-0

avg cover +9.0

Covered 2 straight

Over / under

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-2

avg vs total −19.0

Under 2 straight

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	AuburnAdjEM #33	A	L 53–75	+23.0	W+1.0	143.5	U128	85.8	121.4	61.8
Nov 4	Christendom Crusaders	H	W 108–43	—	—	—	—	145.0	57.7	74.5
Nov 2	MerrimackAdjEM #206	N	W 63–49	+3.0	W+17.0	134.5	U112	110.3	85.8	57.1
Mar 7	Southern MissAdjEM #219	N	L 73–86	−5.0	L−18.0	137.5	O159	106.5	125.4	68.6
Feb 27	Texas StAdjEM #190	A	L 57–60	−1.0	L−4.0	135.0	U117	93.8	98.7	60.8
Feb 21	GA SouthernAdjEM #207	H	W 89–74	−7.5	W+7.5	146.5	O163	125.2	104.1	71.1
Feb 19	MarshallAdjEM #132	H	L 93–94	−3.5	L−4.5	143.5	O187	139.9	141.4	66.5
Feb 14	James MadisonAdjEM #187	A	L 58–69	−1.5	L−12.5	135.0	U127	94.7	112.7	61.2
Feb 11	GA SouthernAdjEM #207	A	W 81–65	−1.5	W+14.5	144.0	O146	122.2	98.1	66.3
Feb 7	E MichiganAdjEM #247	H	W 65–60	−7.5	L−2.5	131.0	U125	100.7	92.9	64.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

St BonaventureApp State

Efficiency

110.2

103.7

105.8

103.0

69.7

64.6

-11.4

6.5

Shooting

57.1%

43.9%

56.0%

50.0%

40.0%

25.9%

52.3%

63.9%

37.0%

34.0%

Ball control & glass

17.5%

21.0%

19.0%

13.5%

39.7%

41.4%

33.0%

37.7%

8.0%

14.3%

2.4%

18.8%

Style

29.4%

54.7%

54.1%

32.8%

17.6%

12.1%

52.5%

59.0%

37.5%

43.5%

Roster

2.80

2.94

6'5.8"

6'4.5"

5.0%

23.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

St Bonaventure

Returning minutes: 14.1%Returning production: 11.9%

Lost

Darryl Simmons II 35.5 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Villanova
Frank Mitchell 33.6 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dasonte Bowen 33.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · transferred to Penn State
Cayden Charles 33.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Daniel Egbuniwe 21.1 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Andrew Osasuyi 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg · transferred to Georgia

Added

Ari Fulton from NJIT · 28.3 mpg, 10.9 ppg last season
Ryan Kalambay from Detroit Mercy · 20.0 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
Mason Blackwood from Penn State · 10.0 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
Benjamin Bill no D1 minutes last season
Cameron Blankenberg no D1 minutes last season
Leo Kirk no D1 minutes last season

Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

App State

Returning minutes: 23.1%Returning production: 17.5%

Lost

Kasen Jennings 32.7 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Alonzo Dodd 31.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to East Texas A&M
Luke Wilson 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
Jalen Tot 24.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Michael Marcus Jr. 24.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to George Mason
Jason Clarke Jr. 9.6 mpg, 2.5 ppg · transferred to IU Indy

Added

Hermann Koffi from Stonehill · 34.3 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
Rrezon Elezaj from UConn · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
Jonathan Moss no D1 minutes last season
Ted Neal no D1 minutes last season
Da'Mori Lytch no D1 minutes last season
Jackson Love no D1 minutes last season

Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 23

Northern Iowa vs Davidson · 11:00 AM ET
Long Beach St at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
Charlotte vs FGCU · 1:30 PM ET
Akron vs Wright St · 1:30 PM ET
Tulsa vs Oregon St · 2:00 PM ET
Ole Miss vs Clemson · 2:30 PM ET
William & Mary vs IU Indy · 3:30 PM ET
Arkansas St vs Southern Utah · 3:30 PM ET
Tulane vs Georgia St · 4:00 PM ET
Yale vs Belmont · 4:00 PM ET
Nevada vs San Francisco · 4:30 PM ET
Washington vs BYU · 5:00 PM ET
MD Eastern at Youngstown St · 6:30 PM ET
Illinois St vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at North Florida · 7:00 PM ET
FDU at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
GA Southern at N Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
NC A&T at SC State · 7:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Wichita St · 7:30 PM ET
Denver at Kansas · 8:00 PM ET
Monmouth at North Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Winthrop at Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
VCU vs Providence · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at California · 10:00 PM ET
E Washington at UNLV · 10:00 PM ET
Colorado St vs Arizona · 11:30 PM ET
UNC Greensboro at Pepperdine · TBD

← Sun, Nov 22 · Tue, Nov 24 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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