CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteLahaina Civic Center, Maui, HIMaui Invitational

Colorado St

Efficiency #88

2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf

Arizona

Efficiency #3

2025-26: 36-3 · 19-2 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · 11:30 PM ET

68.6

win 14%

Projected

81.2

win 86%

No line posted yet.

Model: ARIZ −12.5 · total 149.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Arizona 70.1, Colorado St 65.5 → 67.3 possessions

−2.3

Arizona offense vs Colorado St defense

+8.2

Colorado St offense vs Arizona defense

−4.3

Projected total

149.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Arizona offense vs Colorado St defense

+8.2

Colorado St offense vs Arizona defense

+4.3

Arizona by 12.5

12.5

Colorado St side ◂▸ Arizona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Arizona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Arizona is the faster team (71.4, #38 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

149.8

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 81.2

Colorado St / Arizona

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.5#358

Colorado St

70.1#41

Arizona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageArizona

Where Arizona scores: shooting

Arizona shoots an effective 54.7% (#45); Colorado St allows 52.9% (#263). Expect about 54.1%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Arizona averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Colorado St 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassArizona

Arizona owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.4% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Arizona's offense.

ClashArizona

Style clash: 3-point volume

Arizona rarely shoots threes (26.3% of its shots); Colorado St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

TurnoversArizona

Arizona protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Arizona's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Arizona, Colorado St, Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colorado St at about 46.0% of its shots from three, Arizona about 31.2%.

Colorado St has the ball

OffenseArizona allowsvs D1 avg

57.5% #12

45.3% #4

+0.8 pt/100

18.5% #296

16.3% #200

-0.8 pt/100

30.0% #198

26.9% #34

-1.2 pt/100

39.4% #69

27.1% #25

-0.3 pt/100

77.0% #33

—

+0.4 pt/100

Colorado St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Arizona has the ball

OffenseColorado St allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #45

52.9% #263

+4.0 pt/100

15.1% #72

15.5% #253

+2.2 pt/100

38.4% #5

29.3% #123

+3.0 pt/100

43.9% #11

34.2% #155

+0.5 pt/100

73.4% #156

—

+0.1 pt/100

Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado Stoffense vsArizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Colorado St shoots

32.9

6.7

10.8

49.6

Arizona allows

27.4

11.5

23.6

37.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.1%#15	53.1%#25	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#331	34.9%#55	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.5%#45	35.9%#104	38.0%
Three	38.6%#9	31.4%#42	33.7%

Arizonaoffense vsColorado Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Arizona shoots

40.7

12.4

21.2

25.7

Colorado St allows

34.8

7.2

15.5

42.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.0%#71	59.3%#203	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.0%#50	48.7%#347	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#61	40.6%#263	38.0%
Three	36.6%#37	34.2%#196	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Colorado St

−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#198

Def reb %

70.7%

#123

Turnover %

18.5%

#296

Forced TO %

15.5%

#253

FT rate

39.4%

#69

FT allowed

34.2%

#155

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Arizona

+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#3 of 365

Off reb %

38.4%

Def reb %

73.1%

#34

Turnover %

15.1%

#72

Forced TO %

16.3%

#200

FT rate

43.9%

#11

FT allowed

27.1%

#25

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed+2.1

Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#3 of 365) to Colorado St’s −0.3 (#190).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Colorado St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
55	Jevin Muniz	G	Sr	6'6"	34-26	30.5	9.4	4.0	4.9	1.5	54.9%	35.9%	3.0	70.1%	19.8%
2	Brandon Rechsteiner	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	27.7	12.0	2.2	2.5	1.7	58.7%	40.0%	6.3	80.9%	26.0%
4	Jase Butler	G	So	6'4"	34-17	25.9	9.3	3.1	1.8	1.1	57.1%	41.1%	3.3	81.6%	20.1%
0	Carey Booth	F	Jr	6'10"	34-30	24.6	10.7	5.6	0.7	1.0	60.4%	40.7%	2.5	82.8%	23.1%
1	Josh Pascarelli	G	Jr	6'3"	27-25	26.5	10.2	2.8	1.4	0.8	60.1%	41.5%	5.4	87.0%	21.3%
35	Kyle Jorgensen	F	So	6'9"	28-27	25.5	11.5	4.3	2.2	1.4	61.5%	40.2%	3.6	80.0%	25.3%
11	Augustinas Kiudulas	F	Jr	6'8"	34-4	14.6	5.9	2.7	0.8	1.1	59.3%	41.2%	1.0	69.0%	24.3%
8	Jojo McIver	G	Fr	6'3"	33-0	12.4	2.7	1.8	1.0	0.9	45.1%	18.8%	1.0	74.3%	17.9%
21	Rashaan Mbemba	F	Jr	6'7"	21-6	17.5	8.1	3.7	0.9	1.4	62.4%	50.0%	0.5	72.0%	27.0%
23	Nikola Djapa	C	Jr	6'11"	18-1	9.8	2.5	1.9	0.7	1.0	68.5%	25.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.1%
3	Darnez Slater	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	7.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.2	41.7%	10.0%	0.5	90.9%	15.7%
5	Jon Mekonnen	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	4.9	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	92.9%	33.7%
30	Charlie Dortch	F	So	6'7"	5-0	3.2	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	—	17.9%
41	Docker Tedeschi	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Arizona2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Ivan Kharchenkov	F	Fr	6'7"	39-39	28.4	10.4	4.3	2.3	1.5	54.6%	31.7%	2.7	72.3%	20.9%
13	Motiejus Krivas	C	Jr	7'2"	39-39	25.2	10.4	8.2	1.1	1.4	57.7%	30.8%	0.3	78.0%	21.4%
2	Dwayne Aristode	F	Fr	6'8"	35-0	13.3	3.8	1.7	0.7	0.4	64.6%	46.2%	1.9	50.0%	14.3%
15	Sidi Gueye	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	3.6	1.3	0.8	0.2	0.2	72.2%	—	0.0	63.6%	17.3%
21	Evan Nelson	G	Sr	6'2"	25-0	3.3	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.3	53.8%	40.0%	0.4	—	13.6%
22	Addison Arnold	G	So	6'3"	20-0	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	15.4%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	20.1%
42	Sven Djopmo	G	So	6'2"	19-0	1.9	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	40.0%	15.8%
11	Jackson Cook	G	So	6'3"	10-0	1.4	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	0.0%	13.2%
7	Jackson Francois	G	Sr	6'5"	10-0	1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	—	19.1%
6	Bryce James	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
20	Mabil Mawut	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Colorado St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
55	Jevin Muniz	G	Sr	6'6"	34-26	30.5	9.4	4.0	4.9	1.5	54.9%	35.9%	3.0	70.1%	19.8%
2	Brandon Rechsteiner	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	27.7	12.0	2.2	2.5	1.7	58.7%	40.0%	6.3	80.9%	26.0%
4	Jase Butler	G	So	6'4"	34-17	25.9	9.3	3.1	1.8	1.1	57.1%	41.1%	3.3	81.6%	20.1%
0	Carey Booth	F	Jr	6'10"	34-30	24.6	10.7	5.6	0.7	1.0	60.4%	40.7%	2.5	82.8%	23.1%
1	Josh Pascarelli	G	Jr	6'3"	27-25	26.5	10.2	2.8	1.4	0.8	60.1%	41.5%	5.4	87.0%	21.3%
35	Kyle Jorgensen	F	So	6'9"	28-27	25.5	11.5	4.3	2.2	1.4	61.5%	40.2%	3.6	80.0%	25.3%
11	Augustinas Kiudulas	F	Jr	6'8"	34-4	14.6	5.9	2.7	0.8	1.1	59.3%	41.2%	1.0	69.0%	24.3%
8	Jojo McIver	G	Fr	6'3"	33-0	12.4	2.7	1.8	1.0	0.9	45.1%	18.8%	1.0	74.3%	17.9%
21	Rashaan Mbemba	F	Jr	6'7"	21-6	17.5	8.1	3.7	0.9	1.4	62.4%	50.0%	0.5	72.0%	27.0%
23	Nikola Djapa	C	Jr	6'11"	18-1	9.8	2.5	1.9	0.7	1.0	68.5%	25.0%	0.2	50.0%	18.1%
3	Darnez Slater	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	7.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.2	41.7%	10.0%	0.5	90.9%	15.7%
5	Jon Mekonnen	F	Fr	6'8"	11-0	4.9	2.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	92.9%	33.7%
30	Charlie Dortch	F	So	6'7"	5-0	3.2	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	66.7%	—	0.0	—	17.9%
41	Docker Tedeschi	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Colorado St

Against the spread

Season

18-15

Home

9-8

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-15-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.1

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 18	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	H	L 64–69	−6.0	L−11.0	145.5	U133	95.5	103.0	67.0
Mar 12	San Diego StAdjEM #53	N	L 62–71	+6.5	L−2.5	142.0	U133	89.1	102.1	69.6
Mar 11	Fresno StAdjEM #169	N	W 67–63	−7.5	L−3.5	145.5	U130	106.4	100.1	63.0
Mar 7	Boise StAdjEM #63	H	L 67–78	+1.5	L−9.5	144.0	O145	109.4	127.3	61.3
Mar 4	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	W 82–74	+8.0	W+16.0	151.0	O156	112.9	101.9	72.6
Feb 28	San José StAdjEM #282	A	W 85–73	−8.0	W+4.0	145.5	O158	133.6	114.7	63.6
Feb 24	Fresno StAdjEM #169	H	W 74–70	−8.5	L−4.5	148.5	U144	111.0	105.0	66.7
Feb 21	San Diego StAdjEM #53	H	W 83–74	+2.5	W+11.5	140.0	O157	122.8	109.5	67.6
Feb 18	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	W 91–86	+2.5	W+7.5	148.0	O177	139.2	131.5	65.4
Feb 14	WyomingAdjEM #98	H	W 79–68	−3.5	W+7.5	138.5	O147	128.4	110.5	61.5

Arizona

Against the spread

Season

23-14-2

Home

9-8

Road

4-4-2

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

20-19

Home

8-9

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +2.7

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 73–91	−1.0	L−19.0	157.5	O164	93.6	116.6	78.0
Mar 28	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	W 79–64	−5.0	W+10.0	152.5	U143	121.0	98.0	65.3
Mar 26	#4ArkansasAdjEM #19	N	W 109–88	−8.0	W+13.0	165.5	O197	136.4	110.1	79.9
Mar 22	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	W 78–66	−11.5	W+0.5	154.0	U144	121.2	102.5	64.4
Mar 20	#16Long IslandAdjEM #195	N	W 92–58	−30.5	W+3.5	148.0	O150	130.1	82.0	70.7
Mar 14	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	138.5	O153	120.2	112.6	65.7
Mar 13	#7Iowa StateAdjEM #7	N	W 82–80	−3.5	L−1.5	144.5	O162	123.9	120.8	66.2
Mar 12	UCFAdjEM #70	N	W 81–59	−15.5	W+6.5	158.5	U140	118.4	86.2	68.4
Mar 7	ColoradoAdjEM #91	A	W 89–79	−13.5	L−3.5	156.0	O168	122.5	108.7	72.7
Mar 2	#6Iowa StateAdjEM #7	H	W 73–57	−7.0	W+9.0	149.0	U130	109.3	85.4	66.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Colorado StArizona

Efficiency

114.2

119.5

109.6

96.3

65.5

70.1

—

Shooting

57.5%

54.7%

57.1%

54.6%

38.6%

36.6%

77.0%

73.4%

39.4%

43.9%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

15.1%

15.5%

16.3%

30.0%

38.4%

29.3%

26.9%

10.5%

8.6%

9.0%

8.5%

Style

49.1%

26.3%

35.6%

49.0%

11.1%

16.9%

62.9%

54.0%

30.9%

29.4%

Roster

2.73

1.83

6'5.6"

6'9.4"

—

36.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Colorado St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Arizona

Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 33.7%

Lost

Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mabil Mawut no D1 minutes last season
Bryce James no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.