CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceUNF Arena, Jacksonville, FL

C Arkansas

Efficiency #139

2025-26: 22-12 · 17-4 conf

North Florida

Efficiency #338

2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · 7:00 PM ET

82.3

win 67%

Projected

77.2

win 33%

No line posted yet.

Model: CARK −5.1 · total 159.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: North Florida 70.4, C Arkansas 68.7 → 70.8 possessions

+5.4

North Florida offense vs C Arkansas defense

−1.7

C Arkansas offense vs North Florida defense

+7.5

Projected total

159.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

North Florida offense vs C Arkansas defense

−1.7

C Arkansas offense vs North Florida defense

−7.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

C Arkansas by 5.1

5.1

C Arkansas side ◂▸ North Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 159.4 against a projected 159.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and C Arkansas the slower (68.9, #158). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

159.5

model

Projected team totals

82.3 / 77.2

C Arkansas / North Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.7#148

C Arkansas

70.4#29

North Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageC Arkansas

Where C Arkansas scores: shooting

C Arkansas shoots an effective 54.0% (#68); North Florida allows 56.3% (#349). Expect about 55.4%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashNorth Florida

Style match: 3-point volume

North Florida takes 51.7% of its shots from three; C Arkansas lets opponents take 52.3% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 57.5% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversC Arkansas

C Arkansas protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 13.4% is worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions for C Arkansas's offense.

AdvantageNorth Florida

Where North Florida scores: shooting

North Florida shoots an effective 52.9% (#106); C Arkansas allows 54.9% (#328). Expect about 54.1%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassNorth Florida

North Florida gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.3% is worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions against North Florida's offense.

Pace

Track meet

North Florida averages 71.9 possessions per 40, C Arkansas 68.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

C Arkansas has the ball

OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

54.0% #68

56.3% #349

+5.9 pt/100

15.4% #94

12.7% #362

+4.1 pt/100

28.8% #240

37.6% #361

+1.4 pt/100

31.2% #278

31.4% #91

-0.5 pt/100

70.7% #246

—

-0.1 pt/100

C Arkansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.8 pts/100

North Florida has the ball

OffenseC Arkansas allowsvs D1 avg

52.9% #106

54.9% #328

+4.0 pt/100

17.9% #264

19.0% #47

-2.5 pt/100

25.2% #335

27.4% #48

-3.1 pt/100

28.8% #333

30.1% #60

-0.7 pt/100

77.8% #20

—

+0.5 pt/100

North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

C Arkansasoffense vsNorth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

C Arkansas shoots

37.6

5.7

8.4

48.2

North Florida allows

44.5

4.9

12.1

38.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.7%#58	62.9%#321	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.4%#188	47.1%#334	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	28.3%#362	45.1%#350	38.0%
Three	35.5%#89	35.1%#253	33.7%

North Floridaoffense vsC Arkansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

North Florida shoots

35.7

3.2

9.7

51.4

C Arkansas allows

35.7

3.9

8.3

52.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.2%#223	63.7%#337	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.8%#344	30.2%#15	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	46.5%#6	38.6%#185	38.0%
Three	35.0%#117	35.2%#262	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

C Arkansas

+3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#47 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#240

Def reb %

72.6%

#48

Turnover %

15.4%

#94

Forced TO %

19.0%

#47

FT rate

31.2%

#278

FT allowed

30.1%

#60

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.0

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

North Florida

−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365

Off reb %

25.2%

#335

Def reb %

62.4%

#361

Turnover %

17.9%

#264

Forced TO %

12.7%

#362

FT rate

28.8%

#333

FT allowed

31.4%

#91

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−2.3

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn−1.6

Foul shots allowed+1.0

C Arkansas has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.4 (#47 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

C Arkansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Camren Hunter	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	30.9	21.0	4.2	2.7	1.8	58.0%	36.9%	6.0	79.6%	35.2%
32	Luke Moore	G	Fr	6'2"	34-31	29.7	9.4	2.9	3.5	1.4	47.0%	32.1%	3.9	56.5%	21.6%
12	Ty Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	27.6	14.2	5.6	2.0	1.1	57.8%	37.4%	6.0	76.7%	27.0%
24	Cole McCormick	F	So	6'6"	32-15	22.2	9.1	3.4	1.2	1.0	56.0%	31.4%	3.2	73.8%	22.4%
25	Malchiah Marable	F	Fr	6'9"	33-33	20.5	4.2	4.4	1.5	1.3	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.4%	14.3%
0	Truman Byrne	F	Fr	6'10"	34-0	16.4	4.0	3.0	2.0	1.1	53.5%	34.5%	2.5	88.9%	16.2%
9	Harry Beauchamp	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	15.4	4.5	1.4	1.0	0.7	60.3%	42.9%	2.5	85.7%	16.2%
5	Tyler Lee	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	9.4	2.5	1.5	0.4	0.4	54.5%	37.1%	1.0	65.0%	15.7%
13	Parker Applegate	G	Jr	6'8"	29-0	7.1	2.1	1.4	0.1	0.4	43.9%	21.4%	1.0	80.0%	20.3%
11	Rashad Bolden	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	23.0	8.7	4.3	1.0	0.7	35.5%	25.0%	5.3	66.7%	26.9%
23	Chris Mason	F	So	6'7"	4-0	9.8	2.0	2.0	0.3	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	18.5%
10	Owen Derhmann	G	So	6'4"	11-0	3.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.5	—	9.9%
17	Ethan Thomas	G	So	6'1"	8-0	4.5	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.1	37.5%	50.0%	0.3	60.0%	10.9%
4	J.C. Shulman	G	Fr	6'2"	10-0	3.2	0.9	0.6	0.0	0.0	64.3%	42.9%	0.7	—	11.8%
7	R.J. Newton	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Rylie Marshall	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

North Florida2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Kamrin Oriol	G	Sr	6'3"	32-32	35.7	20.9	3.0	4.3	3.2	58.4%	40.2%	7.6	88.7%	30.8%
10	Kent Jackson	G	So	6'2"	32-32	31.9	14.8	3.3	2.2	1.9	51.2%	34.8%	9.5	92.5%	27.0%
1	BJ Plummer	F	Fr	6'6"	32-17	26.9	7.7	3.4	1.2	1.2	51.6%	32.8%	4.0	65.6%	17.3%
2	Mason Lee	F	So	6'7"	32-30	26.1	8.0	5.6	2.0	1.8	64.6%	37.5%	2.8	69.2%	16.7%
21	Dalton Gayman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-13	23.6	10.3	5.6	1.5	1.5	52.4%	36.5%	2.0	76.1%	24.5%
24	Nestor Dyachok	F	Sr	6'9"	32-18	15.2	4.3	2.3	1.0	0.6	49.5%	8.0%	0.8	68.0%	17.0%
4	Devin Hines	G	Sr	6'4"	27-15	17.1	5.5	2.3	0.9	0.9	45.4%	24.4%	1.7	71.4%	20.8%
5	Dante Oliver	G	So	6'5"	31-0	12.8	2.5	1.4	0.4	0.2	51.6%	38.9%	1.2	60.0%	11.1%
22	Trey Cady	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.9	6.1	2.2	0.3	0.7	48.9%	33.9%	1.9	74.2%	28.9%
3	Taylor Thompson	G	Fr	5'11"	19-0	3.9	0.6	0.2	0.7	0.4	38.5%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	16.0%
25	Gabe Jacobs	G	Fr	6'1"	9-0	4.6	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.4	57.7%	30.0%	1.1	100.0%	22.3%
13	Alex Vargo	G	Sr	6'5"	1-0	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
12	Arden Begaj	F	Fr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
0	Mason Watkins	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

C Arkansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Camren Hunter	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	30.9	21.0	4.2	2.7	1.8	58.0%	36.9%	6.0	79.6%	35.2%
32	Luke Moore	G	Fr	6'2"	34-31	29.7	9.4	2.9	3.5	1.4	47.0%	32.1%	3.9	56.5%	21.6%
12	Ty Robinson	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	27.6	14.2	5.6	2.0	1.1	57.8%	37.4%	6.0	76.7%	27.0%
24	Cole McCormick	F	So	6'6"	32-15	22.2	9.1	3.4	1.2	1.0	56.0%	31.4%	3.2	73.8%	22.4%
25	Malchiah Marable	F	Fr	6'9"	33-33	20.5	4.2	4.4	1.5	1.3	55.8%	0.0%	0.0	52.4%	14.3%
0	Truman Byrne	F	Fr	6'10"	34-0	16.4	4.0	3.0	2.0	1.1	53.5%	34.5%	2.5	88.9%	16.2%
9	Harry Beauchamp	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	15.4	4.5	1.4	1.0	0.7	60.3%	42.9%	2.5	85.7%	16.2%
5	Tyler Lee	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	9.4	2.5	1.5	0.4	0.4	54.5%	37.1%	1.0	65.0%	15.7%
13	Parker Applegate	G	Jr	6'8"	29-0	7.1	2.1	1.4	0.1	0.4	43.9%	21.4%	1.0	80.0%	20.3%
11	Rashad Bolden	G	Sr	6'0"	3-3	23.0	8.7	4.3	1.0	0.7	35.5%	25.0%	5.3	66.7%	26.9%
23	Chris Mason	F	So	6'7"	4-0	9.8	2.0	2.0	0.3	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	18.5%
10	Owen Derhmann	G	So	6'4"	11-0	3.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	21.4%	16.7%	0.5	—	9.9%
17	Ethan Thomas	G	So	6'1"	8-0	4.5	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.1	37.5%	50.0%	0.3	60.0%	10.9%
4	J.C. Shulman	G	Fr	6'2"	10-0	3.2	0.9	0.6	0.0	0.0	64.3%	42.9%	0.7	—	11.8%
7	R.J. Newton	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Rylie Marshall	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

C Arkansas

Against the spread

Season

21-10-1

Home

11-1-1

Road

8-8

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +2.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-4-1

Road

6-10

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +5.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 9 as a favorite, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	QueensAdjEM #191	N	L 93–98 OT	−2.0	L−7.0	157.0	O191	116.0	122.3	80.2
Mar 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	N	W 73–63	−4.5	W+5.5	145.0	U136	104.2	89.9	70.0
Mar 6	BellarmineAdjEM #281	N	W 86–73	−8.0	W+5.0	155.0	O159	136.2	115.6	63.1
Feb 28	QueensAdjEM #191	H	W 84–79	−2.5	W+2.5	163.0	P163	118.4	111.3	70.9
Feb 25	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	W 93–88	+5.0	W+10.0	151.5	O181	137.2	129.9	67.8
Feb 21	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 71–75 OT	−1.0	L−5.0	153.0	U146	98.8	104.4	71.9
Feb 19	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	W 88–76	−10.0	W+2.0	149.0	O164	133.0	114.9	66.2
Feb 14	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	H	W 79–62	−11.0	W+6.0	152.0	U141	114.7	90.0	68.9
Feb 11	BellarmineAdjEM #281	H	W 84–76	−7.5	W+0.5	149.5	O160	128.0	115.9	65.6
Feb 9	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	W 72–65	−6.5	W+0.5	145.0	U137	106.8	96.4	67.4

North Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-12

Home

7-4

Road

9-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.3

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-14-1

Home

4-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.3

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	N	L 85–93	+4.0	L−4.0	159.0	O178	113.1	123.7	75.2
Feb 28	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	L 61–85	+1.5	L−22.5	150.0	U146	88.3	123.1	69.1
Feb 26	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 76–70	+7.0	W+13.0	161.0	U146	109.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 21	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 71–76	+1.5	L−3.5	160.5	U147	111.1	118.9	63.9
Feb 19	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 76–77	+11.0	W+10.0	165.5	U153	97.5	98.7	78.0
Feb 14	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 56–63	+7.5	W+0.5	153.0	U119	96.1	108.2	58.3
Feb 11	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 81–90	+12.5	W+3.5	163.5	O171	111.2	123.6	72.8
Feb 7	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 72–91	+15.5	L−3.5	179.5	U163	104.3	131.9	69.0
Feb 5	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	W 81–73	+6.5	W+14.5	166.0	U154	109.0	98.2	74.3
Jan 31	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 94–100	+11.0	W+5.0	166.5	O194	129.0	137.2	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

C ArkansasNorth Florida

Efficiency

109.3

106.9

107.7

118.3

68.7

70.4

—

Shooting

54.0%

52.9%

54.7%

53.4%

35.5%

35.0%

70.7%

77.8%

31.2%

28.8%

Ball control & glass

15.4%

17.9%

19.0%

12.7%

28.8%

25.2%

27.4%

37.6%

9.1%

11.2%

10.7%

12.6%

Style

48.7%

51.7%

40.4%

36.0%

14.5%

11.3%

58.0%

50.6%

35.1%

30.3%

Roster

1.74

2.68

6'5"

6'5.1"

89.6%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

C Arkansas

Returning minutes: 89.6%Returning production: 89.3%

Lost

Javion Guy-King 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Rylie Marshall no D1 minutes last season
R.J. Newton no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

North Florida

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Jan 17	2025-26	North Florida 69 – 98 C Arkansas

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.