CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceCharles Koch Arena, Wichita, KS
Texas A&M-CC
Efficiency #181
2025-26: 18-15 · 14-10 conf
@
Wichita St
Efficiency #60
2025-26: 24-12 · 14-6 conf
Mon, Nov 23 · TBD
65.0
win 21%
Projected
74.4
win 79%
No line posted yet.
Model: WICH −9.4 · total 139.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Wichita St 67.9, Texas A&M-CC 67.4 → 67.0 possessions
−2.9
Wichita St offense vs Texas A&M-CC defense
−0.2
Texas A&M-CC offense vs Wichita St defense
−5.7
Projected total
139.4
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Wichita St offense vs Texas A&M-CC defense
−0.2
Texas A&M-CC offense vs Wichita St defense
+5.7
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Wichita St by 9.4
9.4
Texas A&M-CC side ◂▸ Wichita St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Wichita St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Wichita St is the faster team (67.8, #211 of 365) and Texas A&M-CC the slower (66.6, #264). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.4
model
Projected team totals
65.0 / 74.4
Texas A&M-CC / Wichita St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#260
Texas A&M-CC
67.9#218
Wichita St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTexas A&M-CC
Where Texas A&M-CC struggles: shooting
Texas A&M-CC shoots an effective 49.5% (#270); Wichita St allows 47.2% (#24). Expect about 48.2%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashTexas A&M-CC
Style match: 3-point volume
Texas A&M-CC rarely shoots threes (31.4% of its shots); Wichita St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.6% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageWichita St
Where Wichita St scores: the offensive glass
Wichita St rebounds 38.0% of its own misses (#8); Texas A&M-CC lets opponents grab 28.8% of their own misses (#95). Expect about 34.9%, 4.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWichita St
Style match: 3-point volume
Wichita St rarely shoots threes (33.8% of its shots); Texas A&M-CC runs teams off the line (34.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 32.0% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Wichita St's defense, Texas A&M-CC's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Texas A&M-CC at about 29.6% of its shots from three, Wichita St about 32.0%.
ClashWichita St
Strength vs strength: turnover rate
Wichita St (#60 in turnover rate) against Texas A&M-CC (#49 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.2%. Historically Texas A&M-CC's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).
Texas A&M-CC has the ball
OffenseWichita St allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #270
47.2% #24
-4.4 pt/100
19.4% #334
15.7% #235
-1.0 pt/100
31.7% #137
28.8% #93
+0.1 pt/100
41.1% #46
34.3% #158
+0.3 pt/100
67.4% #334
—
-0.4 pt/100
Texas A&M-CC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100
Wichita St has the ball
OffenseTexas A&M-CC allowsvs D1 avg
49.4% #274
50.1% #104
-2.4 pt/100
14.9% #60
19.0% #49
-0.5 pt/100
38.0% #8
28.8% #95
+2.8 pt/100
36.0% #149
46.3% #353
+0.9 pt/100
69.2% #291
—
-0.3 pt/100
Wichita St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Texas A&M-CCoffense vsWichita Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Texas A&M-CC shoots
Wichita St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33453.9%#3958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.2%#7535.5%#7339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.2%#32839.8%#23538.0%
Three35.0%#12231.5%#4433.7%
Wichita Stoffense vsTexas A&M-CCdefense
Share of shots by zone
Wichita St shoots
Texas A&M-CC allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28857.9%#14458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)39.9%#17744.7%#28939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.4%#17436.5%#12038.0%
Three33.5%#19531.6%#4833.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Texas A&M-CC
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#198 of 365
Off reb %
31.7%
#137
Def reb %
71.2%
#95
Turnover %
19.4%
#334
Forced TO %
19.0%
#49
FT rate
41.1%
#46
FT allowed
46.3%
#353
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−2.8
Wichita St
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#34 of 365
Off reb %
38.0%
#8
Def reb %
71.2%
#93
Turnover %
14.9%
#60
Forced TO %
15.7%
#235
FT rate
36.0%
#149
FT allowed
34.3%
#158
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.5
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security+1.3
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.2

Wichita St has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#34 of 365) to Texas A&M-CC’s −0.5 (#198).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Texas A&M-CC2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Texas A&M-CC's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
6Sheldon WilliamsFSr6'8"33-3025.411.86.91.01.456.5%29.7%1.164.3%27.0%
1Nick ShogbonyoGSr6'1"28-2626.911.93.51.41.755.0%42.5%4.080.7%25.6%
3Mason GibsonGSr6'0"30-1621.59.41.81.21.150.7%35.9%4.468.5%27.2%
2Leo TorborGSr6'3"33-1719.25.12.01.61.446.7%30.8%0.448.1%21.0%
22Franck YetnaFSr6'7"33-1518.86.83.51.20.754.5%40.8%1.565.3%20.9%
0D'Avian HoustonGSr6'2"27-1520.58.21.53.12.349.1%37.7%2.965.8%29.2%
99Cenker EvranFSr6'8"26-1821.35.85.10.91.056.9%—0.066.7%16.9%
10Daniel Michelini-JacksonGJr6'5"29-1217.55.53.31.41.046.2%33.3%2.390.5%21.2%
4Kam ParkerGSr6'2"26-817.34.42.11.51.042.5%26.2%2.380.0%18.8%
8Bryson WheatfallGFr6'4"26-511.33.61.90.60.539.5%25.0%0.564.3%23.4%
5Kobi PearsonFFr6'8"31-08.83.11.80.30.756.8%30.0%0.350.0%22.5%
11Jaden HaireFJr6'7"25-310.03.51.90.30.853.1%0.0%0.057.1%22.4%
14Cedric HortonGFr6'5"12-09.43.21.00.80.467.3%45.5%0.975.0%15.4%
24Jamal AmbroseFJr6'10"14-06.01.10.60.10.437.5%0.0%0.180.0%16.3%
13Trenton PaneGFr5'10"4-08.34.01.51.31.357.1%28.6%1.8—30.0%
7Kayden CrosbyFJr6'7"6-04.00.50.50.30.350.0%33.3%0.5—10.7%
20Michael OaksFJr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Texas A&M-CCWichita St
Efficiency
105.1
111.1
105.5
103.4
67.4
67.9
—
—
Shooting
49.5%
49.4%
48.1%
49.0%
35.0%
33.5%
67.4%
69.2%
41.1%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
19.4%
14.9%
19.0%
15.7%
31.7%
38.0%
28.8%
28.8%
10.6%
8.7%
11.6%
8.3%
Style
31.4%
33.8%
46.8%
45.1%
14.6%
9.5%
50.7%
41.3%
40.6%
32.4%
Roster
3.55
3.21
6'4.4"
6'4.5"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Texas A&M-CC
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Texas A&M-CC's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Wichita St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Wichita St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.