CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceOcean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL
Long Beach St
Efficiency #267
2025-26: 10-22 · 6-14 conf
@
FIU
Efficiency #200
2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf
Mon, Nov 23 · 1:00 PM ET
73.6
win 27%
Projected
80.6
win 73%
No line posted yet.
Model: FIU −7.1 · total 154.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: FIU 71.0, Long Beach St 69.1 → 71.7 possessions
+7.4
FIU offense vs Long Beach St defense
+0.7
Long Beach St offense vs FIU defense
−2.2
Projected total
154.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
FIU offense vs Long Beach St defense
+0.7
Long Beach St offense vs FIU defense
+2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.1
FIU by 7.1
7.1
Long Beach St side ◂▸ FIU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.1 against a projected 154.2, and the margin steps add to +7.0 against +7.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FIU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FIU is the faster team (71.5, #33 of 365) and Long Beach St the slower (70.8, #60). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
154.2
model
Projected team totals
73.6 / 80.6
Long Beach St / FIU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#118
Long Beach St
71.0#16
FIU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
FIU averages 71.5 possessions per 40, Long Beach St 70.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageLong Beach St
Where Long Beach St struggles: ball control
Long Beach St turns it over on 18.0% of possessions (#270); FIU forces turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions (#21). Expect about 19.6%, 2.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashFIU
Style match: 3-point volume
FIU rarely shoots threes (32.7% of its shots); Long Beach St runs teams off the line (35.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.4% — both habits push the same way.
DefenseFIU
FIU's ball-hawking
FIU ranks #20 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.2% of Long Beach St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
ClashLong Beach St
Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure
Long Beach St (#19 in shot-blocking exposure) against FIU (#21 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 11.1%. Historically FIU's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).
ClashLong Beach St
Style clash: ball movement
Long Beach St creates off the dribble (assists on 46.2% of its baskets); FIU allows assists on 62.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 54.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
Long Beach St has the ball
OffenseFIU allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #207
52.9% #264
+0.6 pt/100
18.0% #270
20.1% #21
-3.4 pt/100
26.2% #315
34.8% #335
-0.5 pt/100
30.7% #287
35.9% #209
-0.2 pt/100
72.5% #185
—
+0.0 pt/100
Long Beach St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.4 pts/100
FIU has the ball
OffenseLong Beach St allowsvs D1 avg
50.6% #210
53.7% #290
+1.2 pt/100
17.7% #254
17.5% #120
-1.3 pt/100
33.9% #69
27.8% #60
+0.7 pt/100
38.6% #87
42.3% #327
+0.7 pt/100
69.4% #287
—
-0.3 pt/100
FIU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersLong Beach Stoffense vsFIUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Long Beach St shoots
33.1
8.7
23.2
35.1
FIU allows
39.0
5.4
10.0
45.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.6%#27 | 54.1%#41 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.7%#201 | 39.5%#175 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.4%#209 | 42.5%#317 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.7%#245 | 36.2%#313 | 33.7% |
FIUoffense vsLong Beach Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
FIU shoots
45.4
7.7
14.5
32.5
Long Beach St allows
42.3
6.9
15.6
35.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.7%#249 | 63.4%#334 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.6%#233 | 40.0%#191 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.6%#271 | 39.7%#230 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.7%#137 | 34.4%#212 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersLong Beach St
−3.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#318 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#315
Def reb %
72.2%
#60
Turnover %
18.0%
#270
Forced TO %
17.5%
#120
FT rate
30.7%
#287
FT allowed
42.3%
#327
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed−1.8
FIU
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#91 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#69
Def reb %
65.2%
#335
Turnover %
17.7%
#254
Forced TO %
20.1%
#21
FT rate
38.6%
#87
FT allowed
35.9%
#209
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−0.2
FIU has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#91 of 365) to Long Beach St’s −3.6 (#318).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Long Beach St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Petar Majstorovic | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 56.7% | 28.6% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 25.7% | |
| 11 | Gavin Sykes | G | Fr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 32.9 | 19.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 38.7% | 6.0 | 79.5% | 29.9% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Lewis | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-13 | 22.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 42.2% | 31.8% | 2.1 | 76.9% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Rob Diaz III | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-14 | 21.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 32.9% | 2.2 | 80.7% | 21.8% | |
| 2 | Shaquil Bender | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-9 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 49.5% | 36.6% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 31.8% | |
| 4 | Leopold Levillain | F | Fr | 6'9" | 30-24 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 57.0% | — | 0.0 | 61.9% | 16.0% | |
| 33 | Shay Johnson Jr. | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-8 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 70.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 41.7% | 8.4% | |
| 3 | Dallas Washington | F | Fr | 6'10" | 23-1 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 36.6% | 18.2% | 1.4 | 44.4% | 21.9% | |
| 24 | Christian Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 18-1 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 55.0% | 35.5% | 1.7 | 77.8% | 18.8% | |
| 1 | Derrick Michael Xzavierro | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 19.9% | |
| 15 | JJ Chaikovsky | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 7.5% | |
| 14 | Immanuel Lewis | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 22.1% | |
| 8 | Grant Gondrezick II | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Jayden Alexander | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
FIU2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Zawdie Jackson | G | Sr | 6'1" | 31-31 | 29.1 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 50.8% | 37.7% | 2.5 | 86.9% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Eric Dibami | F | Fr | 6'10" | 30-30 | 29.0 | 9.3 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 52.7% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 52.1% | 19.9% | |
| 5 | Hamed Olayinka | F | Jr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 23.7 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 55.0% | 15.4% | 0.4 | 54.5% | 24.8% | |
| 10 | Julian Mackey | G | Sr | 6'2" | 30-9 | 22.7 | 12.4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 52.1% | 36.4% | 5.0 | 72.9% | 30.2% | |
| 1 | Brit Harris | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 18.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 49.7% | 31.5% | 3.5 | 64.7% | 18.4% | |
| 4 | Ashton Williamson | G | So | 6'3" | 26-25 | 22.7 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 46.0% | 31.6% | 3.8 | 81.8% | 24.2% | |
| 34 | Ibrahim Olajuwon | F | Jr | 6'10" | 32-2 | 14.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 55.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 52.3% | 16.6% | |
| 6 | Thiago Sucatzky | G | Fr | 5'10" | 32-0 | 13.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 46.2% | 44.0% | 0.8 | 82.6% | 20.5% | |
| 25 | Kennedy Brown | F | Sr | 6'8" | 20-0 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 44.4% | 16.9% | |
| 11 | Amarion Nimmers | G | Jr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 1.6 | 57.1% | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Renato Ruiz | G | Sr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 8.9% | |
| 23 | Aydan Clinton | F | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 15.2% | |
| 7 | Gvidas Gicevicius | F | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Jorge Santos | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Michael Kelvin II | F | Sr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Long Beach St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Petar Majstorovic | F | So | 6'8" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 56.7% | 28.6% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 25.7% | |
| 11 | Gavin Sykes | G | Fr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 32.9 | 19.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 38.7% | 6.0 | 79.5% | 29.9% | |
| 12 | Isaiah Lewis | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-13 | 22.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 42.2% | 31.8% | 2.1 | 76.9% | 20.5% | |
| 0 | Rob Diaz III | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-14 | 21.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 32.9% | 2.2 | 80.7% | 21.8% | |
| 2 | Shaquil Bender | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-9 | 21.8 | 10.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 49.5% | 36.6% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 31.8% | |
| 4 | Leopold Levillain | F | Fr | 6'9" | 30-24 | 19.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 57.0% | — | 0.0 | 61.9% | 16.0% | |
| 33 | Shay Johnson Jr. | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-8 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 70.8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 41.7% | 8.4% | |
| 3 | Dallas Washington | F | Fr | 6'10" | 23-1 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 36.6% | 18.2% | 1.4 | 44.4% | 21.9% | |
| 24 | Christian Jones | G | So | 6'4" | 18-1 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 55.0% | 35.5% | 1.7 | 77.8% | 18.8% | |
| 1 | Derrick Michael Xzavierro | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 70.0% | 19.9% | |
| 15 | JJ Chaikovsky | F | So | 6'7" | 19-0 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 7.5% | |
| 14 | Immanuel Lewis | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 22.1% | |
| 8 | Grant Gondrezick II | G | So | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Jayden Alexander | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Long Beach St
Against the spread
Season
15-14-1
Home
8-6
Road
7-8-1
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −0.1
Covered the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
19-10-1
Home
9-4-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.8
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | Hawai'i | A | W 84–75 | +14.0 | W+23.0 | 150.0 | O159 | 109.6 | 97.9 | 76.6 |
| Mar 5 | UC Davis | H | L 70–76 OT | +2.0 | L−4.0 | 150.0 | U146 | 88.2 | 95.7 | 79.4 |
| Feb 28 | Bakersfield | A | W 88–87 | −3.0 | L−2.0 | 153.5 | O175 | 118.6 | 117.3 | 74.2 |
| Feb 26 | Cal Poly | A | L 92–102 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 161.5 | O194 | 114.6 | 127.1 | 80.3 |
| Feb 21 | CSU Northridge | H | L 76–78 | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 157.5 | U154 | 105.9 | 108.7 | 71.8 |
| Feb 19 | UC Irvine | H | L 58–69 | +5.0 | L−6.0 | 143.0 | U127 | 78.7 | 93.6 | 73.7 |
| Feb 14 | UC Davis | A | L 54–71 | +5.0 | L−12.0 | 149.5 | U125 | 76.6 | 100.8 | 70.5 |
| Feb 12 | Fullerton | H | L 82–86 | −1.5 | L−5.5 | 156.5 | O168 | 110.5 | 115.9 | 74.2 |
| Feb 5 | UC San Diego | A | L 74–77 | +10.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | O151 | 99.1 | 103.2 | 74.6 |
| Jan 31 | Hawai'i | H | L 82–89 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | O171 | 113.7 | 123.4 | 72.1 |
FIU
Against the spread
Season
16-13
Home
9-6
Road
7-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover +0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
15-14
Home
6-9
Road
9-4
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −1.8
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Missouri St | N | L 72–75 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 110.5 | 115.1 | 65.1 |
| Mar 7 | Western KY | H | W 92–67 | +1.0 | W+26.0 | 160.0 | U159 | 125.7 | 91.5 | 73.2 |
| Mar 5 | MTSU | H | L 67–73 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 153.5 | U140 | 97.4 | 106.1 | 68.8 |
| Feb 28 | Louisiana Tech | A | W 84–76 | +2.0 | W+10.0 | 146.0 | O160 | 120.7 | 109.2 | 69.6 |
| Feb 26 | Sam Houston | A | L 67–100 | +6.0 | L−27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 91.4 | 136.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Missouri St | H | W 70–67 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 155.0 | U137 | 104.2 | 99.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 19 | Liberty | A | L 89–90 OT | +10.5 | W+9.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 112.3 | 113.6 | 79.2 |
| Feb 14 | Louisiana Tech | H | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 146.5 | U141 | 113.9 | 94.7 | 67.6 |
| Feb 12 | Delaware | H | L 66–68 | −8.5 | L−10.5 | 146.5 | U134 | 98.9 | 101.9 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | Western KY | A | L 70–80 | +4.0 | L−6.0 | 156.0 | U150 | 102.8 | 117.5 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLong Beach StFIU
Efficiency
105.0
107.6
110.3
108.9
69.1
71.0
—
—
Shooting
50.6%
50.6%
51.5%
49.9%
32.7%
34.7%
72.5%
69.4%
30.7%
38.6%
Ball control & glass
18.0%
17.7%
17.5%
20.1%
26.2%
33.9%
27.8%
34.8%
9.5%
11.1%
7.2%
8.4%
Style
34.8%
32.7%
44.4%
46.6%
11.7%
16.0%
46.2%
49.9%
35.9%
32.6%
Roster
2.37
2.84
6'5.6"
6'5"
89.8%
85.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLong Beach St
Returning minutes: 89.8%Returning production: 93.5%
Lost
- Cole Farrell 20.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Niagara
Added
- Jayden Alexander no D1 minutes last season
- Grant Gondrezick II no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 90% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
FIU
Returning minutes: 85.1%Returning production: 81.4%
Lost
- Corey Stephenson 30.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jorge Santos no D1 minutes last season
- Gvidas Gicevicius no D1 minutes last season
- Michael Kelvin II no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.