CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center, Youngstown, OH

MD Eastern

Efficiency #345

2025-26: 9-23 · 5-10 conf

Youngstown St

Efficiency #204

2025-26: 15-17 · 8-13 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · TBD

62.7

win 17%

Projected

73.5

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: YSU −10.9 · total 136.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Youngstown St 68.3, MD Eastern 65.7 → 65.6 possessions

−5.9

Youngstown St offense vs MD Eastern defense

+0.5

MD Eastern offense vs Youngstown St defense

−6.6

Projected total

136.2

Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Youngstown St offense vs MD Eastern defense

+0.5

MD Eastern offense vs Youngstown St defense

+6.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Youngstown St by 10.9

10.9

MD Eastern side ◂▸ Youngstown St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Youngstown St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Youngstown St is the faster team (68.6, #169 of 365) and MD Eastern the slower (64.4, #343). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

136.2

model

Projected team totals

62.7 / 73.5

MD Eastern / Youngstown St

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.7#352

MD Eastern

68.3#187

Youngstown St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMD Eastern

Where MD Eastern struggles: ball control

MD Eastern turns it over on 23.8% of possessions (#365); Youngstown St forces turnovers on 17.8% of opponent possessions (#106). Expect about 21.5%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Youngstown St averages 68.6 possessions per 40, MD Eastern 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashMD Eastern

Style match: 3-point volume

MD Eastern rarely shoots threes (33.5% of its shots); Youngstown St runs teams off the line (34.3% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 31.3% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageYoungstown St

Where Youngstown St struggles: ball control

Youngstown St turns it over on 18.8% of possessions (#313); MD Eastern forces turnovers on 17.9% of opponent possessions (#102). Expect about 18.6%, 1.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (MD Eastern) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect MD Eastern at about 31.3% of its shots from three, Youngstown St about 47.6%.

ClashMD Eastern

Style match: paint scoring

MD Eastern scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; Youngstown St gives up 46.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 45.0% — both habits push the same way.

MD Eastern has the ball

OffenseYoungstown St allowsvs D1 avg

47.8% #319

52.3% #228

-2.2 pt/100

23.8% #365

17.8% #106

-5.8 pt/100

32.4% #112

30.7% #191

+0.9 pt/100

29.5% #321

36.0% #210

-0.3 pt/100

71.5% #224

—

-0.1 pt/100

MD Eastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.3 pts/100

Youngstown St has the ball

OffenseMD Eastern allowsvs D1 avg

53.7% #76

50.7% #142

+1.6 pt/100

18.8% #313

17.9% #102

-2.3 pt/100

30.4% #182

33.6% #311

+1.0 pt/100

31.4% #272

43.0% #340

+0.4 pt/100

73.3% #159

—

+0.1 pt/100

Youngstown St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

MD Easternoffense vsYoungstown Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

MD Eastern shoots

40.3

4.5

20.7

34.5

Youngstown St allows

42.4

8.0

15.8

33.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.9%#277	59.8%#217	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.4%#259	37.4%#123	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.3%#138	33.6%#41	38.0%
Three	29.0%#354	35.5%#280	33.7%

Youngstown Stoffense vsMD Easterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Youngstown St shoots

39.9

5.3

5.5

49.2

MD Eastern allows

40.3

3.1

17.9

38.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.9%#75	58.3%#155	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#337	35.6%#74	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.4%#176	33.2%#32	38.0%
Three	33.8%#184	33.5%#156	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

MD Eastern

−7.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#361 of 365

Off reb %

32.4%

#112

Def reb %

66.4%

#311

Turnover %

23.8%

#365

Forced TO %

17.9%

#102

FT rate

29.5%

#321

FT allowed

43.0%

#340

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−4.8

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−2.0

Youngstown St

−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#263 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#182

Def reb %

69.3%

#191

Turnover %

18.8%

#313

Forced TO %

17.8%

#106

FT rate

31.4%

#272

FT allowed

36.0%

#210

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Youngstown St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#263 of 365) to MD Eastern’s −7.8 (#361).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

MD Eastern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Michael Teal	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	26.2	5.8	2.1	3.5	2.2	43.8%	17.1%	1.3	76.1%	18.8%
0	Jaden Cooper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	26.0	8.0	3.7	1.7	1.2	49.5%	33.6%	3.6	83.7%	20.5%
5	Dorion Staples	F	Sr	6'8"	32-24	24.3	9.3	3.0	1.8	1.2	52.4%	33.8%	4.3	78.8%	24.4%
1	Zion Obanla	G	Sr	6'8"	32-15	22.1	10.8	5.9	0.9	1.6	60.6%	20.0%	0.2	70.4%	28.1%
12	Justin Monden	G	Jr	6'0"	32-1	20.8	6.0	1.2	1.6	1.5	45.6%	27.0%	2.3	72.2%	23.1%
14	Joseph Locandro	F	Sr	6'9"	32-22	19.3	9.3	3.3	0.5	1.6	56.9%	40.7%	2.8	71.8%	30.7%
24	Levi Beckwith	SF	Fr	6'7"	26-24	17.3	2.0	2.9	0.6	0.8	27.0%	11.8%	1.3	61.1%	14.2%
35	Christopher Flippin	PF	Sr	6'8"	30-1	13.2	5.0	2.8	0.7	1.1	47.0%	—	0.0	55.1%	29.2%
3	Trey Brown	PG	Jr	6'7"	27-0	13.8	3.3	2.4	1.3	1.5	41.0%	31.0%	1.1	66.7%	23.4%
31	Maurio Hanson Jr.	F	So	6'7"	23-0	8.8	2.8	1.7	0.5	0.7	56.8%	40.0%	0.2	70.0%	20.8%
22	Maurice Vassel	F	So	6'9"	25-10	7.6	2.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	58.1%	—	0.0	70.0%	18.9%
23	Trey Hall	F	Sr	6'9"	16-0	11.4	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.2	39.2%	20.0%	1.6	—	18.5%
2	Jaden Johnson	PG	Jr	5'10"	22-0	6.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	26.7%	13.3%	0.7	100.0%	18.8%
11	Javoy Thompson	G	Jr	6'7"	17-0	8.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.4	41.4%	0.0%	0.2	71.4%	15.9%
10	Devin Thomas	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Youngstown St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Cris Carroll	F	Sr	6'6"	32-32	30.3	17.4	5.2	1.8	2.7	59.4%	39.6%	7.1	78.0%	32.7%
9	Bryson Dawkins	G	Sr	6'2"	32-32	26.8	12.6	4.6	1.4	1.5	56.9%	30.7%	3.2	61.4%	27.5%
2	Rich Rolf	F	Jr	6'7"	31-30	26.6	9.1	4.5	2.1	1.0	56.7%	36.8%	4.0	88.1%	19.4%
0	Jason Nelson	G	Sr	5'10"	31-31	25.0	6.9	2.8	2.9	1.6	44.1%	28.0%	2.4	75.0%	20.3%
6	Drew King	G	Jr	6'3"	32-1	17.4	2.8	3.1	2.9	1.2	50.9%	29.4%	0.5	71.1%	12.5%
1	Cam Polak	G	Sr	6'2"	29-10	17.2	5.8	1.6	0.6	1.1	55.3%	38.5%	3.6	79.3%	21.5%
7	Vlad Salaridze	F	Sr	6'7"	27-4	17.7	8.4	4.3	1.5	1.0	50.9%	33.3%	2.4	77.6%	28.3%
10	Imanuel Zorgvol	C	Sr	7'0"	32-14	14.7	5.7	2.8	0.3	0.9	65.2%	33.3%	0.4	69.6%	21.7%
8	Jaiden Haynes	G	Fr	6'3"	21-2	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.3	52.9%	33.3%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Tyler Robinett	F	Sr	6'8"	11-4	12.5	3.0	2.7	0.5	0.5	44.1%	16.7%	1.1	50.0%	18.5%
5	Shaheed Solebo	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	6.7	2.3	1.3	0.9	0.7	40.9%	16.7%	0.9	53.8%	35.7%
3	Derrick Anderson	G	Sr	6'1"	6-0	5.5	2.7	0.7	1.0	0.0	57.7%	16.7%	1.0	50.0%	38.7%
21	Connor Swider	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Markus Navarra	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

MD Eastern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Michael Teal	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	26.2	5.8	2.1	3.5	2.2	43.8%	17.1%	1.3	76.1%	18.8%
0	Jaden Cooper	G	Sr	6'3"	32-31	26.0	8.0	3.7	1.7	1.2	49.5%	33.6%	3.6	83.7%	20.5%
5	Dorion Staples	F	Sr	6'8"	32-24	24.3	9.3	3.0	1.8	1.2	52.4%	33.8%	4.3	78.8%	24.4%
1	Zion Obanla	G	Sr	6'8"	32-15	22.1	10.8	5.9	0.9	1.6	60.6%	20.0%	0.2	70.4%	28.1%
12	Justin Monden	G	Jr	6'0"	32-1	20.8	6.0	1.2	1.6	1.5	45.6%	27.0%	2.3	72.2%	23.1%
14	Joseph Locandro	F	Sr	6'9"	32-22	19.3	9.3	3.3	0.5	1.6	56.9%	40.7%	2.8	71.8%	30.7%
24	Levi Beckwith	SF	Fr	6'7"	26-24	17.3	2.0	2.9	0.6	0.8	27.0%	11.8%	1.3	61.1%	14.2%
35	Christopher Flippin	PF	Sr	6'8"	30-1	13.2	5.0	2.8	0.7	1.1	47.0%	—	0.0	55.1%	29.2%
3	Trey Brown	PG	Jr	6'7"	27-0	13.8	3.3	2.4	1.3	1.5	41.0%	31.0%	1.1	66.7%	23.4%
31	Maurio Hanson Jr.	F	So	6'7"	23-0	8.8	2.8	1.7	0.5	0.7	56.8%	40.0%	0.2	70.0%	20.8%
22	Maurice Vassel	F	So	6'9"	25-10	7.6	2.0	1.2	0.1	0.8	58.1%	—	0.0	70.0%	18.9%
23	Trey Hall	F	Sr	6'9"	16-0	11.4	1.8	1.4	0.4	1.2	39.2%	20.0%	1.6	—	18.5%
2	Jaden Johnson	PG	Jr	5'10"	22-0	6.9	1.0	0.7	0.7	0.7	26.7%	13.3%	0.7	100.0%	18.8%
11	Javoy Thompson	G	Jr	6'7"	17-0	8.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.4	41.4%	0.0%	0.2	71.4%	15.9%
10	Devin Thomas	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

MD Eastern

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

3-5

Road

10-10

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

13-17

Home

3-5

Road

9-11

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +1.6

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	L 76–83 OT	−1.0	L−8.0	132.0	O159	109.5	119.6	69.4
Mar 5	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	L 56–57	−5.5	L−6.5	125.0	U113	94.2	95.9	59.4
Mar 2	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	L 73–77	−2.5	L−6.5	133.5	O150	106.9	112.8	68.3
Feb 28	SC StateAdjEM #357	H	W 69–57	−6.0	W+6.0	132.5	U126	104.0	85.9	66.3
Feb 21	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	L 65–71 OT	−3.0	L−9.0	127.0	O136	88.3	96.4	73.6
Feb 16	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	L 66–70	+2.0	L−2.0	136.5	U136	111.7	118.5	59.1
Feb 14	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 53–79	+11.0	L−15.0	133.0	U132	82.4	122.8	64.3
Feb 7	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 71–79	−1.5	L−9.5	141.0	O150	106.1	118.0	66.9
Feb 4	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	L 54–63	−4.5	L−13.5	134.5	U117	83.7	97.7	64.5
Feb 2	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 63–65	+4.0	W+2.0	135.5	U128	101.7	104.9	61.9

Youngstown St

Against the spread

Season

10-18-1

Home

4-8

Road

5-9-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.9

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-14

Home

5-7

Road

10-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 53–68	+4.0	L−11.0	143.5	U121	84.9	109.0	62.4
Feb 28	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–85	+1.5	L−20.5	142.0	O148	96.4	130.0	65.4
Feb 25	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 65–78	−1.0	L−14.0	148.5	U143	94.9	113.9	68.5
Feb 22	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	W 64–58	−2.0	W+4.0	152.5	U122	86.5	78.4	73.9
Feb 18	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 106–82	−11.0	W+13.0	156.5	O188	151.0	116.8	70.2
Feb 15	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–76	−3.0	L−9.0	150.5	U146	97.9	106.3	71.5
Feb 12	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 86–82	+4.0	W+8.0	156.0	O168	123.1	117.4	69.8
Feb 7	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	H	L 66–72	−3.5	L−9.5	144.0	U138	102.2	111.5	64.6
Feb 4	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	W 90–61	+2.5	W+31.5	147.0	O151	141.6	96.0	63.5
Jan 30	IU IndyAdjEM #315	H	W 85–76	−10.5	L−1.5	154.0	O161	116.0	103.7	73.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MD EasternYoungstown St

Efficiency

98.6

106.8

110.9

108.3

65.7

68.3

—

Shooting

47.8%

53.7%

49.9%

56.6%

29.0%

33.8%

71.5%

73.3%

29.5%

31.4%

Ball control & glass

23.8%

18.8%

17.9%

17.8%

32.4%

30.4%

33.6%

30.7%

13.8%

10.8%

8.6%

9.7%

Style

33.5%

49.4%

46.3%

42.0%

10.1%

14.0%

56.5%

53.8%

42.2%

36.9%

Roster

3.47

3.58

6'5.4"

6'4.3"

—

93.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

MD Eastern

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted MD Eastern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Youngstown St

Returning minutes: 93.2%Returning production: 94.3%

Lost

Tae Blackshear 13.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara

Added

Connor Swider no D1 minutes last season
Markus Navarra no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.