CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteZidian Family Arena at Beeghly Center, Youngstown, OH

William & Mary

Efficiency #127

2025-26: 20-12 · 11-9 conf

IU Indy

Efficiency #315

2025-26: 7-25 · 3-18 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · TBD

88.5

win 76%

Projected

80.2

win 24%

No line posted yet.

Model: W&M −8.3 · total 168.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: IU Indy 72.5, William & Mary 71.8 → 76.0 possessions

+16.6

IU Indy offense vs William & Mary defense

−2.2

William & Mary offense vs IU Indy defense

+6.1

Projected total

168.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

IU Indy offense vs William & Mary defense

−2.2

William & Mary offense vs IU Indy defense

−6.1

William & Mary by 8.3

8.3

William & Mary side ◂▸ IU Indy side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help IU Indy.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 76.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, IU Indy is the faster team (74.9, #4 of 365) and William & Mary the slower (73.6, #9). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

76.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

168.7

model

Projected team totals

88.5 / 80.2

William & Mary / IU Indy

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.8#6

William & Mary

72.5#2

IU Indy

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

IU Indy averages 74.9 possessions per 40, William & Mary 73.6. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 77 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageWilliam & Mary

Where William & Mary scores: shooting

William & Mary shoots an effective 54.3% (#58); IU Indy allows 58.2% (#362). Expect about 56.6%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (IU Indy's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect William & Mary at about 39.8% of its shots from three, IU Indy about 45.4%.

TurnoversWilliam & Mary

William & Mary turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against William & Mary's offense.

ClashWilliam & Mary

Style clash: 3-point volume

William & Mary takes 42.8% of its shots from three; IU Indy runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 39.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

William & Mary has the ball

OffenseIU Indy allowsvs D1 avg

54.3% #58

58.2% #362

+7.5 pt/100

16.5% #169

19.2% #41

-1.7 pt/100

26.0% #324

35.6% #348

-0.4 pt/100

44.0% #9

46.6% #356

+1.4 pt/100

74.9% #87

—

+0.2 pt/100

William & Mary net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.1 pts/100

IU Indy has the ball

OffenseWilliam & Mary allowsvs D1 avg

52.2% #136

51.9% #205

+1.2 pt/100

15.9% #127

19.0% #48

-1.1 pt/100

28.7% #243

31.5% #229

-0.4 pt/100

21.7% #365

35.5% #195

-0.8 pt/100

72.1% #204

—

-0.0 pt/100

IU Indy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

William & Maryoffense vsIU Indydefense

Share of shots by zone

William & Mary shoots

43.8

4.6

8.6

43.0

IU Indy allows

48.7

4.0

11.4

35.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.0%#37	64.3%#343	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.0%#332	41.8%#228	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#120	38.4%#173	38.0%
Three	33.0%#233	38.5%#361	33.7%

IU Indyoffense vsWilliam & Marydefense

Share of shots by zone

IU Indy shoots

34.6

8.1

15.3

42.0

William & Mary allows

38.6

4.2

11.3

45.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#62	59.9%#222	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.3%#11	34.2%#48	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#223	40.2%#249	38.0%
Three	32.4%#258	33.1%#126	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

William & Mary

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#83 of 365

Off reb %

26.0%

#324

Def reb %

68.5%

#229

Turnover %

16.5%

#169

Forced TO %

19.0%

#48

FT rate

44.0%

FT allowed

35.5%

#195

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security+0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+2.3

Foul shots allowed−0.1

IU Indy

−6.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#358 of 365

Off reb %

28.7%

#243

Def reb %

64.4%

#348

Turnover %

15.9%

#127

Forced TO %

19.2%

#41

FT rate

21.7%

#365

FT allowed

46.6%

#356

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.6

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn−3.4

Foul shots allowed−2.9

William & Mary has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#83 of 365) to IU Indy’s −6.2 (#358).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

William & Mary2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi	F	Jr	6'8"	32-31	26.8	11.9	4.1	2.5	1.4	55.0%	35.0%	4.5	78.7%	23.4%
2	Chase Lowe	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	23.4	9.2	5.8	3.8	1.7	58.0%	11.1%	0.3	72.8%	21.0%
0	Reese Miller	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	24.5	12.1	2.5	2.4	1.4	52.9%	32.8%	4.3	73.4%	27.1%
11	Kyle Pulliam	G	Sr	6'4"	30-29	24.4	10.4	3.4	1.9	1.0	51.7%	30.1%	3.1	82.0%	21.9%
23	Jo'el Emanuel	F	Sr	6'6"	31-4	22.1	8.5	3.0	1.6	1.3	58.2%	33.3%	1.4	69.6%	20.0%
15	Ryan Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'6"	31-0	18.6	7.0	3.0	0.8	0.7	69.4%	52.4%	0.7	67.9%	16.8%
1	Cade Haskins	F	Sr	6'6"	32-31	16.9	6.3	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.8%	34.4%	4.1	76.5%	21.3%
8	Jhei-R Jones	G	Sr	6'1"	24-0	17.7	5.4	2.2	1.5	1.2	52.2%	33.3%	2.0	82.9%	17.8%
43	Finn Lally	F	Sr	6'8"	25-1	10.0	3.9	1.9	1.0	0.6	56.5%	38.5%	1.0	66.7%	21.1%
7	Kyle Frazier	G	Sr	6'2"	16-1	5.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.0	39.1%	22.2%	1.1	69.2%	17.2%
24	Kaleb Spencer	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	5.7	3.0	3.7	1.2	0.7	56.7%	25.0%	0.7	33.3%	30.8%
6	Colin Ndaw	G	So	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.0	1.0	0.6	0.4	33.3%	0.0%	0.6	66.7%	25.9%
5	Ethan Connery	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Miles Hicks	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

IU Indy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Finley Woodward	F	Sr	6'7"	32-32	30.8	8.8	5.3	6.3	2.2	51.5%	0.0%	0.0	68.6%	18.0%
12	Kyler D'Augustino	G	Jr	6'1"	30-30	32.3	18.5	3.2	3.4	1.9	58.0%	39.4%	3.5	79.3%	27.9%
13	Maguire Mitchell	G	Fr	6'5"	32-31	26.3	11.8	2.3	1.2	0.9	54.5%	34.9%	7.4	78.4%	22.9%
4	Micah Davis	G	So	6'2"	32-6	25.4	9.4	2.1	2.9	1.8	49.6%	31.3%	5.2	70.0%	22.9%
0	Jaxon Edwards	G	Sr	6'5"	30-14	23.0	11.6	5.6	1.9	1.8	55.1%	21.3%	1.6	73.6%	27.3%
20	Kameron Tinsley	F	So	6'6"	29-5	17.5	7.9	2.4	1.1	0.9	52.0%	34.6%	4.7	83.9%	23.1%
23	Aiden Miller	F	So	6'8"	29-9	14.7	5.0	3.8	1.0	0.8	49.2%	31.6%	3.4	64.5%	20.5%
15	Matt Compas	G	Sr	6'4"	31-5	13.5	7.1	1.2	1.4	0.9	51.9%	20.6%	1.1	68.4%	28.5%
1	Reece Hagy	F	Fr	6'8"	31-23	11.0	2.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	46.9%	21.2%	1.1	56.5%	12.8%
5	JP Dragas	G	So	6'1"	15-0	16.3	6.1	1.6	1.6	1.0	51.9%	34.8%	4.4	71.4%	20.2%
24	Gabe Stewart	F	Fr	6'9"	12-5	5.6	1.1	2.1	0.2	0.3	28.1%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.1%
10	Lav Cvetkovic	F	Sr	6'7"	12-0	3.9	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	57.7%	37.5%	0.7	40.0%	17.6%
22	Ajay Holubar	G	Sr	6'3"	9-0	4.1	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.7	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	—	18.9%
2	Corey Boston	G	Sr	5'10"	6-0	3.5	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.7	44.4%	33.3%	1.0	75.0%	32.6%
11	Garrett Sever	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.7	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	1.0	—	11.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

William & Mary2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
16	Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi	F	Jr	6'8"	32-31	26.8	11.9	4.1	2.5	1.4	55.0%	35.0%	4.5	78.7%	23.4%
2	Chase Lowe	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	23.4	9.2	5.8	3.8	1.7	58.0%	11.1%	0.3	72.8%	21.0%
0	Reese Miller	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	24.5	12.1	2.5	2.4	1.4	52.9%	32.8%	4.3	73.4%	27.1%
11	Kyle Pulliam	G	Sr	6'4"	30-29	24.4	10.4	3.4	1.9	1.0	51.7%	30.1%	3.1	82.0%	21.9%
23	Jo'el Emanuel	F	Sr	6'6"	31-4	22.1	8.5	3.0	1.6	1.3	58.2%	33.3%	1.4	69.6%	20.0%
15	Ryan Jackson Jr.	G	So	6'6"	31-0	18.6	7.0	3.0	0.8	0.7	69.4%	52.4%	0.7	67.9%	16.8%
1	Cade Haskins	F	Sr	6'6"	32-31	16.9	6.3	2.4	0.8	0.8	51.8%	34.4%	4.1	76.5%	21.3%
8	Jhei-R Jones	G	Sr	6'1"	24-0	17.7	5.4	2.2	1.5	1.2	52.2%	33.3%	2.0	82.9%	17.8%
43	Finn Lally	F	Sr	6'8"	25-1	10.0	3.9	1.9	1.0	0.6	56.5%	38.5%	1.0	66.7%	21.1%
7	Kyle Frazier	G	Sr	6'2"	16-1	5.6	1.7	0.6	0.3	0.0	39.1%	22.2%	1.1	69.2%	17.2%
24	Kaleb Spencer	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	5.7	3.0	3.7	1.2	0.7	56.7%	25.0%	0.7	33.3%	30.8%
6	Colin Ndaw	G	So	6'3"	5-0	5.6	2.0	1.0	0.6	0.4	33.3%	0.0%	0.6	66.7%	25.9%
5	Ethan Connery	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Miles Hicks	G	Sr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

William & Mary

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −2.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-6

Road

6-9

Last 10

3-6-1

avg vs total −0.3

Over in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 61–92	+2.5	L−28.5	153.0	P153	92.8	140.0	65.7
Mar 7	ElonAdjEM #228	N	W 72–62	−5.5	W+4.5	163.5	U134	106.4	91.6	67.7
Mar 3	HamptonAdjEM #268	H	W 94–85	−11.5	L−2.5	154.0	O179	130.3	117.9	72.1
Feb 28	NC A&TAdjEM #271	A	W 91–88	−7.0	L−4.0	163.5	O179	121.0	117.0	75.2
Feb 26	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 84–77	−11.0	L−4.0	164.5	U161	105.1	96.4	79.9
Feb 19	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 83–84	−2.5	L−3.5	167.5	U167	111.8	113.1	74.3
Feb 14	ElonAdjEM #228	H	L 78–81	−8.0	L−11.0	165.5	U159	109.6	113.8	71.2
Feb 12	NortheasternAdjEM #274	A	W 94–67	−5.5	W+21.5	167.5	U161	135.0	96.2	69.7
Feb 7	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 74–77	−5.5	L−8.5	152.0	U151	103.6	107.7	71.5
Feb 5	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	W 85–78	+4.5	W+11.5	159.0	O163	125.9	115.6	67.5

IU Indy

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

13-16-1

Home

4-8

Road

9-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.4

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 2	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	A	L 93–101	+1.0	L−7.0	169.5	O194	112.1	121.7	83.0
Feb 28	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	L 81–87	+1.0	L−5.0	160.5	O168	116.4	125.0	69.6
Feb 25	OaklandAdjEM #172	H	L 74–86	+5.5	L−6.5	167.5	U160	101.9	118.5	72.6
Feb 19	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	L 73–85	+12.0	P0.0	160.5	U158	102.5	119.3	71.2
Feb 15	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	A	L 78–83	+6.5	W+1.5	158.5	O161	104.1	110.7	75.0
Feb 12	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	H	L 81–84	+6.0	W+3.0	164.5	O165	114.6	118.8	70.7
Feb 10	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	L 88–92	+2.0	L−2.0	158.0	O180	113.6	118.7	77.5
Feb 7	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	W 82–74	−2.5	W+5.5	168.5	U156	109.3	98.7	75.0
Jan 30	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	A	L 76–85	+10.5	W+1.5	154.0	O161	103.7	116.0	73.3
Jan 28	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 58–74	+8.5	L−7.5	159.5	U132	97.3	124.2	59.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

William & MaryIU Indy

Efficiency

110.1

106.3

107.7

114.9

71.8

72.5

—

Shooting

54.3%

52.2%

57.9%

54.8%

33.0%

32.4%

74.9%

72.1%

44.0%

21.7%

Ball control & glass

16.5%

15.9%

19.0%

19.2%

26.0%

28.7%

31.5%

35.6%

9.9%

10.1%

9.8%

7.9%

Style

42.8%

42.1%

43.3%

48.0%

19.6%

15.6%

63.8%

61.9%

43.8%

38.0%

Roster

3.49

2.64

6'5.3"

6'4.6"

89.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

William & Mary

Returning minutes: 89.1%Returning production: 88.7%

Lost

Kilian Brockhoff 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to E Michigan

Added

Miles Hicks no D1 minutes last season
Ethan Connery no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

IU Indy

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted IU Indy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.