Akron Zips vs Wright State Raiders basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 23 · 1:30 PM ET · State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL (neutral site)

ESPN Events Invitational - Adventure BracketNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPNUState Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL
Akron
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #59
vs
Wright St
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #77
Mon, Nov 23 · 1:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Wright St is the faster team (72.1, #130 of 365) and Akron the slower (67.7, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.4
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.8#105
Akron
70.1#216
Wright St

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup
From the four factors
Wright St has the ball+9.9
Akron has the ball+1.0
Wright St has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.6% #137 · AKR forces 10.3% #345 · ~9 turnovers+5.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 45.3% #13 · AKR allows 24.4% #57+2.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 65.2% #10 · AKR allows 35.7% #9+1.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 39.3% #144 · AKR allows 34.9% #167 · FT 83.3% #21+0.8
Akron has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.9% #71 · WRST allows 37.1% #282+3.1
✗Coughs it upTO% 23.6% #319 · WRST forces 18.7% #142 · ~15 turnovers−3.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.0% #80 · WRST allows 47.5% #284 · FT 82.6% #26+1.7
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 56.0% #90 · WRST allows 42.2% #46−0.8

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot
Akronoffense vsWright Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Akron shoots
Wright St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim64.7%#10543.3%#2958.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)50.0%#7533.3%#12538.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)0.0%#32733.3%#15534.7%
Three34.5%#14133.3%#18532.5%
Wright Stoffense vsAkrondefense
Share of shots by zone
Wright St shoots
Akron allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim82.8%#342.1%#2358.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.4%#1310.0%#138.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.9%#9414.3%#4034.7%
Three39.5%#6532.1%#17132.5%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line
Akron
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#71
Def reb %
75.6%
#57
Turnover %
23.6%
#319
Forced TO %
10.3%
#345
FT rate
46.0%
#80
FT allowed
34.9%
#167
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding+2.4
Ball security−3.8
Forcing turnovers−5.5
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Wright St
+2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#144 of 365
Off reb %
45.3%
#13
Def reb %
62.9%
#282
Turnover %
16.6%
#137
Forced TO %
18.7%
#142
FT rate
39.3%
#144
FT allowed
47.5%
#284
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.6
Defensive rebounding−1.8
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed−2.5

Wright St has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.4 (#144 of 365) to Akron’s −1.8 (#204).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not
Akron2026-27 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2GSr6'1"2-230.519.03.02.03.056.5%40.7%13.575.0%35.9%Active
12FSr6'6"2-226.512.06.54.01.066.7%0.0%1.557.1%21.6%Active
8GSr6'6"2-226.516.06.52.52.060.5%30.0%5.069.2%31.1%Active
21FJr6'5"2-021.05.02.02.50.562.5%40.0%2.5—11.8%Active
4FSr6'7"2-020.06.07.00.51.545.5%0.0%1.566.7%21.2%Active
11GSr6'3"2-017.06.04.02.51.066.7%50.0%2.0100.0%15.9%Active
22FJr6'6"2-215.510.03.02.01.580.0%66.7%3.080.0%27.4%Active
5FSr6'10"2-215.05.56.00.51.080.0%0.0%0.575.0%16.2%Active
6GFr6'0"2-010.55.50.52.00.061.1%25.0%2.0—21.9%Active
23FJr6'6"2-09.04.02.50.50.540.0%0.0%0.580.0%24.8%Active
19FFr6'9"1-06.02.02.00.00.0100.0%—0.0—8.4%Active
2GFr6'1"1-06.03.01.02.01.0100.0%—0.050.0%24.8%Active
15GFr6'5"1-05.04.03.00.00.050.0%—0.0—40.3%Active

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home
AkronWright St
Efficiency
113.4
114.5
102.9
106.2
71.8
70.1
-11.1
-8.4
Shooting
56.0%
65.2%
61.9%
68.4%
34.5%
39.5%
82.6%
83.3%
46.0%
39.3%
Ball control & glass
23.6%
16.6%
10.3%
18.7%
37.9%
45.3%
24.4%
37.1%
11.8%
10.4%
9.5%
2.5%
Style
58.0%
35.2%
34.7%
47.2%
13.3%
19.6%
60.9%
49.3%
43.0%
32.9%
Roster
3.53
2.43
6'5"
6'5.5"
25.9%
31.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Akron
Returning minutes: 25.9%Returning production: 25.3%
Lost
  • Tavari Johnson 31.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg · transferred to Charleston
  • Shammah Scott 26.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Amani Lyles 26.4 mpg, 14.9 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
  • Eric Mahaffey 21.3 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
  • Sharron Young 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Western KY
  • Bowen Hardman 18.4 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kamrin Oriol from North Florida · 35.7 mpg, 20.9 ppg last season
  • Tahj Staveskie from Incarnate Word · 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
  • Max Burton from W Michigan · 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
  • Ty Pence from Illinois St · 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
  • Buddy Hammer Jr. from North Texas · 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Colin White from Ohio State · 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season

Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Wright St
Returning minutes: 31.6%Returning production: 31.7%
Lost
  • Solomon Callaghan 26.5 mpg, 9.6 ppg · transferred to Utah State
  • TJ Burch 24.0 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Utah
  • Michael Imariagbe 23.5 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Michael Cooper 23.4 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to California
  • Logan Woods 18.4 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Niagara
  • Sam Alamutu 11.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • C.J. O'Hara from Green Bay · 32.6 mpg, 14.1 ppg last season
  • Chadlyn Traylor from Charleston · 17.3 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Nikola Djapa from Colorado St · 5.2 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
  • Tahj Martin no D1 minutes last season
  • Terrence Hayes Jr. no D1 minutes last season
  • Sam Johnson no D1 minutes last season

Returns 32% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 23

← Sun, Nov 22 · Tue, Nov 24 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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