CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSuncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FLFort Myers Tip-Off - Palms Division
Charlotte
Efficiency #193
2025-26: 17-17 · 11-10 conf
vs
FGCU
Efficiency #246
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
Mon, Nov 23 · 1:30 PM ET
74.5
win 56%
Projected
72.7
win 44%
No line posted yet.
Model: CLT −1.7 · total 147.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: FGCU 68.5, Charlotte 65.7 → 65.9 possessions
−5.3
FGCU offense vs Charlotte defense
+1.3
Charlotte offense vs FGCU defense
+3.0
Projected total
147.2
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
FGCU offense vs Charlotte defense
+1.3
Charlotte offense vs FGCU defense
−3.0
Charlotte by 1.7
1.7
Charlotte side ◂▸ FGCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help FGCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, FGCU is the faster team (69.1, #142 of 365) and Charlotte the slower (64.3, #349). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.2
model
Projected team totals
74.5 / 72.7
Charlotte / FGCU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.7#351
Charlotte
68.5#167
FGCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCharlotte
Where Charlotte scores: shooting
Charlotte shoots an effective 53.4% (#86); FGCU allows 53.4% (#280). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageFGCU
Where FGCU scores: ball control
FGCU turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#131); Charlotte forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#345). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions.
ClashCharlotte
Style match: 3-point volume
Charlotte takes 45.4% of its shots from three; FGCU lets opponents take 46.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.5% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
FGCU averages 69.1 possessions per 40, Charlotte 64.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashCharlotte
Style match: paint scoring
Charlotte gets only 39.1% of its points in the paint; FGCU protects the paint (39.3% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.7% — both habits push the same way.
Charlotte has the ball
OffenseFGCU allowsvs D1 avg
53.4% #86
53.4% #280
+3.3 pt/100
18.1% #275
16.5% #183
-0.7 pt/100
33.9% #71
28.2% #73
+0.8 pt/100
36.4% #140
38.3% #268
+0.3 pt/100
71.6% #219
—
-0.1 pt/100
Charlotte net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.7 pts/100
FGCU has the ball
OffenseCharlotte allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #147
50.9% #152
+0.3 pt/100
15.9% #131
13.6% #345
+3.1 pt/100
31.1% #161
32.5% #283
+0.9 pt/100
29.1% #331
36.2% #213
-0.3 pt/100
72.1% #207
—
-0.0 pt/100
FGCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Charlotteoffense vsFGCUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Charlotte shoots
FGCU allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.0%#11859.6%#21258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.6%#16039.8%#18839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#13137.6%#14738.0%
Three35.2%#10135.4%#27533.7%
FGCUoffense vsCharlottedefense
Share of shots by zone
FGCU shoots
Charlotte allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.2%#8959.9%#22358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.0%#17126.3%#339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.0%#5536.1%#11438.0%
Three33.2%#21933.5%#15333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Charlotte
−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#282 of 365
Off reb %
33.9%
#71
Def reb %
67.5%
#283
Turnover %
18.1%
#275
Forced TO %
13.6%
#345
FT rate
36.4%
#140
FT allowed
36.2%
#213
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.4
Foul shots allowed−0.2
FGCU
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365
Off reb %
31.1%
#161
Def reb %
71.8%
#73
Turnover %
15.9%
#131
Forced TO %
16.5%
#183
FT rate
29.1%
#331
FT allowed
38.3%
#268
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.8

FGCU has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#221 of 365) to Charlotte’s −2.4 (#282).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Charlotte2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Charlotte's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Ben BradfordGSo6'5"34-3428.213.53.81.62.050.0%29.1%3.278.6%31.0%
2Dezayne MingoGSr6'4"33-1627.712.63.44.62.051.9%37.4%4.575.9%29.7%
49Anton BonkeCJr7'2"34-3225.610.68.31.01.660.2%34.2%1.165.3%24.7%
12Arden ConyersFSo6'7"32-2619.57.51.60.50.755.3%35.8%4.683.3%22.6%
10Damoni HarrisonGSr6'4"30-120.79.72.20.81.061.1%39.4%5.376.2%26.1%
9Spencer ElliottFSo6'10"34-1717.24.12.61.00.750.0%25.9%0.847.9%17.4%
5Major FreemanGSr6'3"28-2217.16.32.01.30.950.3%35.3%3.065.8%24.9%
25Jarne Elouna EyengaFFr6'10"24-1218.43.53.00.80.951.4%29.6%1.156.5%14.2%
44Raul VillarGFr6'3"31-112.33.41.61.30.644.8%29.6%0.981.5%18.1%
15Ethan ButlerFSr6'7"27-713.83.32.00.70.754.0%42.9%0.877.8%15.8%
1Kylan BlackmonGSr6'4"29-211.32.01.20.40.437.1%27.5%1.466.7%15.4%
31Nick RichartFSo6'10"24-06.50.31.30.30.275.0%—0.025.0%4.7%
7Kuluel MadingCSr6'11"18-08.13.31.20.10.563.1%33.3%0.877.8%23.7%
11David GomezFFr6'9"2-019.55.03.50.50.571.4%66.7%1.5—12.4%
22Andrew BaileyFSr6'6"5-01.00.00.00.00.2——0.00.0%24.2%
8Frank OgucheGFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CharlotteFGCU
Efficiency
110.8
107.1
111.8
110.7
65.7
68.5
—
—
Shooting
53.4%
52.0%
53.8%
53.3%
35.2%
33.2%
71.6%
72.1%
36.4%
29.1%
Ball control & glass
18.1%
15.9%
13.6%
16.5%
33.9%
31.1%
32.5%
28.2%
9.9%
9.2%
9.5%
8.6%
Style
45.4%
38.4%
39.1%
43.1%
11.9%
15.4%
51.8%
52.0%
41.9%
33.0%
Roster
2.83
2.83
6'6.9"
6'4.7"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Charlotte
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Charlotte's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

FGCU
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted FGCU's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.