CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteLahaina Civic Center, Maui, HIMaui Invitational

VCU

Efficiency #39

2025-26: 28-8 · 18-3 conf

Providence

Efficiency #81

2025-26: 15-18 · 8-14 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · 9:00 PM ET

83.6

win 63%

Projected

79.7

win 37%

No line posted yet.

Model: VCU −3.9 · total 163.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Providence 70.9, VCU 69.1 → 71.8 possessions

+7.4

Providence offense vs VCU defense

+1.9

VCU offense vs Providence defense

+5.8

Projected total

163.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Providence offense vs VCU defense

+1.9

VCU offense vs Providence defense

−5.8

VCU by 3.9

3.9

VCU side ◂▸ Providence side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Providence.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Providence is the faster team (72.3, #21 of 365) and VCU the slower (69.2, #132). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

71.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

163.3

model

Projected team totals

83.6 / 79.7

VCU / Providence

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#109

VCU

70.9#18

Providence

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVCU

Where VCU scores: ball control

VCU turns it over on 15.1% of possessions (#75); Providence forces turnovers on 13.1% of opponent possessions (#352). Expect about 13.5%, 3.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.0 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Providence averages 72.3 possessions per 40, VCU 69.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Providence, VCU) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect VCU at about 42.3% of its shots from three, Providence about 37.5%.

ClashProvidence

Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting

Providence (#51 in 2-point shooting) against VCU (#56 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 52.2%. Historically Providence's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).

VCU has the ball

OffenseProvidence allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #78

51.4% #179

+2.0 pt/100

15.1% #75

13.1% #352

+4.0 pt/100

31.6% #139

30.8% #195

+0.7 pt/100

42.0% #30

32.7% #125

+0.3 pt/100

73.6% #150

—

+0.1 pt/100

VCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100

Providence has the ball

OffenseVCU allowsvs D1 avg

55.0% #37

49.0% #69

+1.4 pt/100

16.7% #174

17.0% #158

-0.1 pt/100

31.7% #135

30.0% #162

+0.5 pt/100

36.7% #138

32.8% #126

-0.1 pt/100

75.7% #60

—

+0.3 pt/100

Providence net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

VCUoffense vsProvidencedefense

Share of shots by zone

VCU shoots

39.0

7.4

9.7

43.9

Providence allows

37.3

6.1

18.4

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#271	57.2%#121	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	46.7%#329	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#9	37.9%#154	38.0%
Three	36.3%#46	35.3%#265	33.7%

Providenceoffense vsVCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Providence shoots

40.7

4.6

14.1

40.5

VCU allows

44.1

6.5

14.1

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.2%#88	52.9%#23	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#156	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.2%#107	36.4%#119	38.0%
Three	36.4%#45	33.0%#125	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

VCU

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#33 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#139

Def reb %

70.0%

#162

Turnover %

15.1%

#75

Forced TO %

17.0%

#158

FT rate

42.0%

#30

FT allowed

32.8%

#126

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Providence

−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#228 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#135

Def reb %

69.2%

#195

Turnover %

16.7%

#174

Forced TO %

13.1%

#352

FT rate

36.7%

#138

FT allowed

32.7%

#125

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.1

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.6

VCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.3 (#33 of 365) to Providence’s −0.9 (#228).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Providence2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
7	Stefan Vaaks	G	Fr	6'7"	31-22	31.5	15.8	2.5	3.2	1.9	52.2%	35.0%	8.4	83.9%	27.9%
11	Ryan Mela	G	So	6'7"	33-22	25.9	9.9	5.3	2.0	1.6	53.9%	32.1%	1.7	80.5%	21.6%
55	Oswin Erhunmwunse	F	So	6'10"	33-31	25.0	6.9	8.3	0.8	1.4	67.3%	—	0.0	52.5%	15.0%
1	Jason Edwards	G	Sr	6'1"	23-13	26.7	16.5	2.8	3.0	1.8	51.6%	34.3%	6.1	79.0%	33.8%
14	Corey Floyd Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	24-18	25.4	7.6	4.0	2.5	1.5	49.3%	37.3%	2.1	79.5%	18.5%
13	Cole Hargrove	F	Sr	6'8"	29-1	13.1	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.5	51.4%	0.0%	0.1	66.7%	8.8%
31	Duncan Powell	F	Sr	6'8"	22-5	16.6	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.7	47.7%	30.8%	3.0	60.7%	17.6%
20	Nilavan Daniels	G	So	6'3"	20-1	9.8	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	69.6%	47.6%	1.1	77.8%	8.8%
17	Peteris Pinnis	F	Fr	7'0"	18-0	4.1	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.4	53.8%	—	0.0	33.3%	16.9%
4	Jaylen Harrell	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.8	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.0	59.4%	27.3%	1.8	100.0%	17.8%
3	Daquan Davis	G	So	6'1"	3-0	9.3	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	0.0%	9.9%
8	Jack Williams	G	Sr	6'4"	7-0	1.9	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.4	—	12.8%
10	Rich Barron	F	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

VCU

Against the spread

Season

17-17-2

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-20

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–76	+12.0	L−9.0	150.5	U131	83.4	115.2	66.0
Mar 19	#6North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 82–78 OT	+2.5	W+6.5	151.0	O160	107.1	101.9	76.5
Mar 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	W 70–62	−2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 14	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	W 77–64	−6.5	W+6.5	146.0	U141	118.4	98.4	65.0
Mar 13	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	W 71–66	−7.0	L−2.0	153.0	U137	109.6	101.9	64.8
Mar 6	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 68–62	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U130	112.1	102.2	60.6
Mar 3	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 70–65	−10.0	L−5.0	147.5	U135	115.1	106.9	60.8
Feb 28	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	W 82–63	−12.5	W+6.5	143.5	O145	120.2	92.4	68.2
Feb 20	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 75–88	+7.5	L−5.5	164.5	U163	97.3	114.1	77.1
Feb 17	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 89–75	−6.0	W+8.0	161.5	O164	130.2	109.7	68.3

Providence

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-7

Road

6-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover +0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

22-11

Home

11-5

Road

8-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	#13St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 72–85	+12.0	L−1.0	159.5	U157	95.4	112.6	75.5
Mar 11	ButlerAdjEM #87	N	W 91–81	−2.0	W+8.0	162.5	O172	125.4	111.6	72.6
Mar 7	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	L 79–80	+1.0	P0.0	157.0	O159	108.5	109.8	72.8
Mar 4	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	L 56–78	−4.5	L−26.5	162.0	U134	78.9	109.9	71.0
Feb 28	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 79–76	+4.0	W+7.0	167.0	U155	116.3	111.9	67.9
Feb 25	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 94–84	−5.5	W+4.5	170.0	O178	135.3	120.9	69.5
Feb 21	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 71–68	+3.0	W+6.0	152.5	U139	105.7	101.2	67.2
Feb 14	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 69–79	+7.5	L−2.5	167.0	U148	91.6	104.9	75.3
Feb 11	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 80–87	+5.0	L−2.0	150.5	O167	116.8	127.1	68.5
Feb 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	W 90–72	−5.0	W+13.0	153.5	O162	125.8	100.6	71.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VCUProvidence

Efficiency

115.3

115.4

104.1

109.8

69.1

70.9

—

Shooting

53.6%

55.0%

53.0%

55.3%

36.3%

36.4%

73.6%

75.7%

42.0%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

15.1%

16.7%

17.0%

13.1%

31.6%

31.7%

30.0%

30.8%

9.0%

10.4%

9.0%

8.6%

Style

43.8%

40.5%

40.2%

43.4%

14.3%

51.9%

47.5%

37.9%

30.8%

Roster

2.49

2.57

6'5.4"

6'6.4"

83.8%

73.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

VCU

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 87.1%

Lost

Barry Evans 26.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyshawn Mitchell 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Obinnaya Okafor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Providence

Returning minutes: 73.6%Returning production: 69.1%

Lost

Jaylin Sellers 30.0 mpg, 18.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jamier Jones 24.2 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Missouri

Added

Rich Barron no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 74% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.