UNC Greensboro Spartans vs Pepperdine Waves basketball preview & prediction

Mon, Nov 23 · Tip time TBD · Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA

Non-conferenceESPN+Firestone Fieldhouse, Malibu, CA

UNC Greensboro

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #279

Pepperdine

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #270

Mon, Nov 23 · TBD

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Pepperdine is the faster team (75.5, #57 of 365) and UNC Greensboro the slower (65.7, #319). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#299

UNC Greensboro

71.7#107

Pepperdine

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Pepperdine has the ball+9.5

UNC Greensboro has the ball+1.5

Pepperdine has the ball

✓Wins second chancesOR% 42.1% #30 · UNCG allows 43.9% #337+5.7

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.2% #155 · UNCG forces 12.2% #328 · ~10 turnovers+3.8

✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.4% #111 · UNCG allows 41.9% #231 · FT 67.9% #218+0.3

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · UNCG allows 50.0% #163−0.3

UNC Greensboro has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 49.1% #194 · PEPP allows 62.5% #340+5.6

✗Coughs it upTO% 19.8% #242 · PEPP forces 21.2% #81 · ~15 turnovers−2.4

✗Few second chancesOR% 27.9% #250 · PEPP allows 31.3% #180−1.1

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 20.5% #340 · PEPP allows 15.6% #7 · FT 91.7% #2−0.5

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

UNC Greensborooffense vsPepperdinedefense

Share of shots by zone

UNC Greensboro shoots

28.6

3.8

15.2

52.4

Pepperdine allows

42.2

7.8

4.7

45.3

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.3%#240	55.6%#137	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.0%#75	60.0%#305	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.8%#92	33.3%#155	34.7%
Three	31.7%#192	48.3%#349	32.5%

Pepperdineoffense vsUNC Greensborodefense

Share of shots by zone

Pepperdine shoots

45.5

6.1

3.0

45.5

UNC Greensboro allows

37.4

6.5

19.6

36.4

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.0%#261	60.0%#195	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	100.0%#1	42.9%#219	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	100.0%#1	42.9%#240	34.7%
Three	26.7%#261	25.6%#56	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

UNC Greensboro

−16.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#351 of 365

Off reb %

27.9%

#250

Def reb %

56.1%

#337

Turnover %

19.8%

#242

Forced TO %

12.2%

#328

FT rate

20.5%

#340

FT allowed

41.9%

#231

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−4.1

Ball security−1.1

Forcing turnovers−4.2

Foul shots drawn−4.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

Pepperdine

+13.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365

Off reb %

42.1%

#30

Def reb %

68.8%

#180

Turnover %

17.2%

#155

Forced TO %

21.2%

#81

FT rate

42.4%

#111

FT allowed

15.6%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.5

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+5.8

Pepperdine has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.7 (#24 of 365) to UNC Greensboro’s −16.0 (#351).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

UNC Greensboro2026-27 numbers · last game: UIC, Nov 9

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	G	Sr	6'7"	3-3	32.7	37	—	Started last	14.0	6.0	1.3	1.7	47.4%	30.8%	8.7	100.0%	26.6%
0	G	Fr	5'9"	3-3	32.3	33	—	Started last	13.3	2.3	6.3	2.3	62.5%	20.0%	1.7	71.4%	22.4%
14	G	So	6'4"	3-3	31.0	33	—	Started last	15.0	3.3	0.3	1.7	76.9%	50.0%	6.7	100.0%	20.4%
6	G	Jr	6'7"	3-3	25.0	31	—	Started last	12.0	5.0	1.3	1.3	53.1%	33.3%	4.0	66.7%	28.2%
11	F	Jr	6'5"	3-0	22.3	26	—	Bench	8.3	6.3	1.3	1.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.7	62.5%	26.2%
3	G	Sr	6'3"	3-0	17.0	10	—	Bench	5.3	3.0	0.7	0.7	45.5%	25.0%	2.7	100.0%	17.3%
24	G	Fr	6'5"	3-0	17.0	15	—	Bench	4.3	1.3	0.3	0.7	37.5%	14.3%	2.3	100.0%	17.5%
33	F	Sr	6'10"	3-3	16.7	15	—	Started last	4.0	4.7	0.0	1.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.7	57.1%	17.3%
2	G	Fr	6'3"	1-0	9.0	—	—	Missed last	2.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	2.0	—	17.4%
7	G	Sr	6'1"	1-0	4.0	0	—	Missed last 2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	1.0	—	26.2%
32	F	Fr	6'11"	1-0	3.0	—	—	Missed last	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	17.4%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

UNC Greensboro

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover +5.0

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total −2.5

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	UICAdjEM #103	A	L 72–82	+20.5	W+10.5	148.0	O154	112.1	127.7	64.2
Nov 6	ElonAdjEM #151	A	L 65–74	+8.5	L−0.5	150.0	U139	96.9	110.3	67.1
Nov 3	Milligan Buffaloes	H	W 96–43	—	—	—	—	125.8	56.3	76.3
Mar 8	FurmanAdjEM #120	N	L 75–81	+6.0	P0.0	148.5	O156	114.3	123.4	65.6
Mar 7	WoffordAdjEM #291	N	W 75–72	+5.5	W+8.5	156.5	U147	114.3	109.7	65.6
Mar 6	VMIAdjEM #346	N	W 84–70	−6.5	W+7.5	156.0	U154	124.6	103.8	67.4
Feb 28	SamfordAdjEM #186	A	L 78–87	+9.5	W+0.5	157.0	O165	107.4	119.8	72.6
Feb 26	ChattanoogaAdjEM #226	A	W 85–80	+3.5	W+8.5	157.5	O165	110.8	104.3	76.7
Feb 21	ETSUAdjEM #139	H	L 75–87	+6.0	L−6.0	149.0	O162	112.1	130.1	66.9
Feb 18	W CarolinaAdjEM #148	A	L 77–91	+6.0	L−8.0	155.0	O168	109.3	129.1	70.5

Pepperdine

Against the spread

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last game

Over / under

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg vs total +6.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Bethesda Flames	H	W 116–43	—	—	—	—	148.3	55.0	78.2
Nov 5	La Sierra Golden Eagles	H	W 106–66	—	—	—	—	136.2	84.8	77.8
Nov 2	CornellAdjEM #179	A	L 85–86	−3.5	L−4.5	165.0	O171	112.5	113.9	75.5
Mar 5	PortlandAdjEM #192	N	L 68–77	+3.5	L−5.5	154.0	U145	98.2	111.2	69.3
Feb 28	Washington StAdjEM #204	H	W 88–79	+8.0	W+17.0	158.0	O167	116.6	104.6	75.5
Feb 25	Seattle UAdjEM #112	H	L 80–87	+7.5	W+0.5	145.5	O167	114.1	124.1	70.1
Feb 21	Oregon StAdjEM #91	A	L 73–83	+9.0	L−1.0	148.5	O156	101.4	115.3	72.0
Feb 18	PortlandAdjEM #192	A	W 95–87	+7.0	W+15.0	151.0	O182	136.2	124.8	69.7
Feb 14	LMUAdjEM #193	H	W 90–89	+6.0	W+7.0	148.5	O179	126.4	125.0	71.2
Feb 11	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #27	A	L 60–88	+24.5	L−3.5	144.0	O148	83.8	122.9	71.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

UNC GreensboroPepperdine

Efficiency

106.0

102.6

112.9

109.0

68.8

71.7

3.5

-1.4

Shooting

49.1%

50.0%

50.9%

58.3%

31.7%

26.7%

91.7%

67.9%

20.5%

42.4%

Ball control & glass

19.8%

17.2%

12.2%

21.2%

27.9%

42.1%

43.9%

31.3%

9.1%

10.6%

10.5%

11.1%

Style

51.3%

45.5%

33.6%

42.4%

9.5%

11.8%

52.1%

41.4%

30.9%

47.2%

Roster

2.65

2.86

6'4.3"

6'5.4"

1.3%

5.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

UNC Greensboro

Returning minutes: 2.1%Returning production: 1.7%

Lost

Justin Neely 32.3 mpg, 17.9 ppg · transferred to Colorado
KJ Younger 28.5 mpg, 15.1 ppg · transferred to Texas St
Donald Whitehead Jr. 26.2 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Noah Norgaard 25.1 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Western KY
Valentino Pinedo 24.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Lilian Marville 23.9 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to George Mason

Added

Braxton Stacker from SE Missouri · 28.2 mpg, 11.8 ppg last season
Zavier Fitch from Wagner · 13.5 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
Cameron Grant from Stanford · 6.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
Ante Beljan from UIC · 5.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
RJ Greer from Davidson · 3.4 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
Vernon Collins Jr. from W Carolina · 1.0 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season

Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Pepperdine

Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 4.3%

Lost

Styles Phipps 34.0 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Nevada
Aaron Clark 32.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to Little Rock
Javon Cooley 30.1 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Danilo Dozic 26.4 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yonatan Levy 20.5 mpg, 5.2 ppg · transferred to Chattanooga
Pavle Stosic 15.7 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to FDU

Added

Petar Majstorovic from Long Beach St · 31.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
Jahari Williamson from Kent State · 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
Youri Fritz from Northeastern · 20.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
Evan Haywood from Butler · 17.6 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
Ethan Meuser from Stonehill · 12.4 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
Anthony Robinson from Xavier · 7.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg last season

Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

More games on Mon, Nov 23

Northern Iowa vs Davidson · 11:00 AM ET
St Bonaventure vs App State · 11:00 AM ET
Long Beach St at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
Charlotte vs FGCU · 1:30 PM ET
Akron vs Wright St · 1:30 PM ET
Tulsa vs Oregon St · 2:00 PM ET
Ole Miss vs Clemson · 2:30 PM ET
William & Mary vs IU Indy · 3:30 PM ET
Arkansas St vs Southern Utah · 3:30 PM ET
Tulane vs Georgia St · 4:00 PM ET
Yale vs Belmont · 4:00 PM ET
Nevada vs San Francisco · 4:30 PM ET
Washington vs BYU · 5:00 PM ET
MD Eastern at Youngstown St · 6:30 PM ET
Illinois St vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
C Arkansas at North Florida · 7:00 PM ET
FDU at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
GA Southern at N Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
NC A&T at SC State · 7:00 PM ET
Texas A&M-CC at Wichita St · 7:30 PM ET
Denver at Kansas · 8:00 PM ET
Monmouth at North Carolina · 8:00 PM ET
Winthrop at Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
VCU vs Providence · 9:00 PM ET
Alabama St at California · 10:00 PM ET
E Washington at UNLV · 10:00 PM ET
Colorado St vs Arizona · 11:30 PM ET

← Sun, Nov 22 · Tue, Nov 24 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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