CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center, Orangeburg, SC

NC A&T

Efficiency #271

2025-26: 11-19 · 4-15 conf

SC State

Efficiency #357

2025-26: 10-22 · 8-8 conf

Mon, Nov 23 · 7:00 PM ET

76.7

win 58%

Projected

74.3

win 42%

No line posted yet.

Model: NCAT −2.5 · total 151.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: SC State 69.3, NC A&T 69.0 → 70.0 possessions

+3.7

SC State offense vs NC A&T defense

−3.7

NC A&T offense vs SC State defense

+2.8

Projected total

151.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

SC State offense vs NC A&T defense

−3.7

NC A&T offense vs SC State defense

−2.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

NC A&T by 2.5

2.5

NC A&T side ◂▸ SC State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help SC State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, SC State is the faster team (70.3, #82 of 365) and NC A&T the slower (69.1, #141). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.0

model

Projected team totals

76.7 / 74.3

NC A&T / SC State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.0#121

NC A&T

69.3#98

SC State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageNC A&T

Where NC A&T struggles: ball control

NC A&T turns it over on 18.6% of possessions (#305); SC State forces turnovers on 18.8% of opponent possessions (#57). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassNC A&T

NC A&T owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.8% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for NC A&T's offense.

AdvantageSC State

Where SC State struggles: shooting

SC State shoots an effective 46.8% (#341); NC A&T allows 52.9% (#266). Expect about 49.5%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (NC A&T's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect NC A&T at about 33.6% of its shots from three, SC State about 33.6%.

ClashNC A&T

Style clash: ball movement

NC A&T creates off the dribble (assists on 45.4% of its baskets); SC State allows assists on 57.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 51.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

NC A&T has the ball

OffenseSC State allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #201

53.9% #296

+1.4 pt/100

18.6% #305

18.8% #57

-2.8 pt/100

31.7% #136

37.6% #362

+2.7 pt/100

42.3% #26

51.9% #364

+1.7 pt/100

73.5% #154

—

+0.1 pt/100

NC A&T net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

SC State has the ball

OffenseNC A&T allowsvs D1 avg

46.8% #341

52.9% #266

-2.5 pt/100

20.8% #355

14.1% #331

-0.7 pt/100

31.4% #146

28.6% #89

-0.1 pt/100

41.1% #47

37.5% #250

+0.5 pt/100

66.8% #344

—

-0.5 pt/100

SC State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

NC A&Toffense vsSC Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

NC A&T shoots

37.1

6.7

24.1

32.2

SC State allows

45.9

2.8

12.6

38.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.9%#97	60.2%#237	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#297	30.8%#18	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.5%#72	39.2%#208	38.0%
Three	31.6%#304	33.5%#155	33.7%

SC Stateoffense vsNC A&Tdefense

Share of shots by zone

SC State shoots

34.0

5.5

27.2

33.3

NC A&T allows

37.6

7.3

18.1

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.9%#342	60.0%#225	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.2%#241	36.9%#109	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.8%#267	39.0%#202	38.0%
Three	34.0%#173	36.6%#331	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

NC A&T

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#209 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#136

Def reb %

71.4%

#89

Turnover %

18.6%

#305

Forced TO %

14.1%

#331

FT rate

42.3%

#26

FT allowed

37.5%

#250

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.6

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn+1.9

Foul shots allowed−0.6

SC State

−6.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#357 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#146

Def reb %

62.4%

#362

Turnover %

20.8%

#355

Forced TO %

18.8%

#57

FT rate

41.1%

#47

FT allowed

51.9%

#364

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−2.3

Ball security−2.7

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−4.3

NC A&T has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#209 of 365) to SC State’s −6.0 (#357).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

NC A&T2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Lewis Walker	F	Fr	6'6"	29-26	34.2	18.9	5.0	1.8	1.8	55.2%	36.7%	2.7	86.2%	28.1%
8	Zamoku Weluche-Ume	F	Jr	6'8"	29-24	30.7	11.3	7.2	0.9	2.2	48.5%	26.9%	2.7	63.0%	25.0%
1	Trent Middleton Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	29-28	29.6	12.5	3.6	3.1	2.3	50.9%	31.1%	3.6	76.5%	26.8%
11	Dwayne Pierce	G	So	6'5"	24-23	28.0	8.5	2.3	2.7	2.1	41.4%	30.8%	3.8	62.1%	24.5%
4	Bryson Ogletree	G	Jr	6'4"	28-8	21.0	4.5	1.8	1.1	0.8	60.4%	36.4%	2.0	53.6%	12.2%
34	Will Felton	C	Jr	6'9"	29-5	15.7	6.7	4.2	0.3	0.9	69.6%	—	0.0	57.6%	21.4%
14	Amadou Doumbia	F	So	6'11"	27-23	14.0	3.4	4.0	0.2	0.5	51.5%	0.0%	0.1	63.9%	14.7%
7	Brooklyn Vick	G	Fr	6'2"	19-5	17.7	3.7	2.3	2.4	1.6	37.7%	23.1%	1.4	65.5%	19.0%
32	KJ Debrick	F	Sr	6'9"	29-2	11.4	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.3	48.0%	15.4%	0.4	72.0%	22.8%
2	Mujahiid Burton	G	Jr	6'5"	20-2	16.4	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.5	47.4%	31.9%	3.5	62.5%	19.7%
0	Lureon Walker	G	Jr	6'5"	5-4	29.0	16.6	3.0	1.0	1.0	54.5%	50.0%	3.6	68.8%	27.7%
9	Yancarlos Cueto	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.7	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.8	45.8%	33.3%	1.5	75.0%	19.6%
20	Chanler Montgomery	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Efstratios Kalliontzis	C	So	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Jalal McKie	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

SC State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Florian Tenebay	G	Sr	6'6"	31-25	22.9	7.0	2.8	1.9	1.9	42.0%	25.0%	0.9	72.1%	22.3%
0	Noah Treadwell	G	Fr	6'5"	31-5	22.6	9.4	1.4	0.7	1.3	51.9%	35.3%	6.6	67.7%	25.3%
5	Owen Bronston Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	27-17	21.1	10.3	2.6	0.6	0.6	49.0%	36.0%	6.1	76.9%	29.0%
4	Cameron Clark	F	Sr	6'10"	25-19	21.4	8.2	5.0	0.8	1.7	46.7%	—	0.0	61.9%	26.8%
30	Rayniel Wright	G	Jr	6'0"	32-4	16.3	3.3	1.6	1.8	2.0	40.0%	25.0%	0.3	50.0%	20.7%
22	James Morrow	G	Jr	6'8"	24-14	20.8	7.7	3.1	1.2	1.2	51.2%	33.3%	1.5	84.6%	21.5%
7	Derwin Hodge Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	27-20	18.2	2.5	3.2	1.1	1.4	43.9%	—	0.0	38.5%	13.6%
55	Chris Parker	G	Jr	6'5"	25-2	18.2	7.0	4.8	0.6	0.6	42.8%	25.0%	0.2	79.0%	24.2%
15	Tim Okojie	C	Jr	7'1"	32-10	10.9	1.2	1.3	0.1	0.5	42.4%	—	0.0	33.3%	10.1%
32	Teon Tindal	C	Fr	6'7"	25-3	9.8	2.6	1.6	0.3	0.8	52.1%	—	0.0	46.7%	18.6%
14	Jamal Miles	G	So	6'4"	21-6	8.4	1.7	0.8	0.3	0.3	34.1%	14.3%	1.3	50.0%	17.8%
23	D'Shay Knights Wright	F	So	6'9"	12-5	14.4	3.1	2.9	0.6	0.9	43.5%	25.0%	0.3	58.8%	16.2%
2	Colin McKenzie	G	Sr	6'6"	6-1	16.0	2.7	1.8	0.3	1.7	38.1%	25.0%	1.3	—	17.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

NC A&T2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Lewis Walker	F	Fr	6'6"	29-26	34.2	18.9	5.0	1.8	1.8	55.2%	36.7%	2.7	86.2%	28.1%
8	Zamoku Weluche-Ume	F	Jr	6'8"	29-24	30.7	11.3	7.2	0.9	2.2	48.5%	26.9%	2.7	63.0%	25.0%
1	Trent Middleton Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	29-28	29.6	12.5	3.6	3.1	2.3	50.9%	31.1%	3.6	76.5%	26.8%
11	Dwayne Pierce	G	So	6'5"	24-23	28.0	8.5	2.3	2.7	2.1	41.4%	30.8%	3.8	62.1%	24.5%
4	Bryson Ogletree	G	Jr	6'4"	28-8	21.0	4.5	1.8	1.1	0.8	60.4%	36.4%	2.0	53.6%	12.2%
34	Will Felton	C	Jr	6'9"	29-5	15.7	6.7	4.2	0.3	0.9	69.6%	—	0.0	57.6%	21.4%
14	Amadou Doumbia	F	So	6'11"	27-23	14.0	3.4	4.0	0.2	0.5	51.5%	0.0%	0.1	63.9%	14.7%
7	Brooklyn Vick	G	Fr	6'2"	19-5	17.7	3.7	2.3	2.4	1.6	37.7%	23.1%	1.4	65.5%	19.0%
32	KJ Debrick	F	Sr	6'9"	29-2	11.4	4.5	3.4	0.5	0.3	48.0%	15.4%	0.4	72.0%	22.8%
2	Mujahiid Burton	G	Jr	6'5"	20-2	16.4	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.5	47.4%	31.9%	3.5	62.5%	19.7%
0	Lureon Walker	G	Jr	6'5"	5-4	29.0	16.6	3.0	1.0	1.0	54.5%	50.0%	3.6	68.8%	27.7%
9	Yancarlos Cueto	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	8.7	2.3	1.2	0.5	0.8	45.8%	33.3%	1.5	75.0%	19.6%
20	Chanler Montgomery	G	So	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Efstratios Kalliontzis	C	So	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Jalal McKie	G	Jr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

NC A&T

Against the spread

Season

16-12

Home

6-4

Road

9-6

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −1.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-11-1

Home

6-4

Road

8-6-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.7

Over 5 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	NortheasternAdjEM #274	N	L 72–88	+2.0	L−14.0	152.5	O160	100.5	122.9	71.6
Mar 3	CampbellAdjEM #208	A	L 72–90	+7.5	L−10.5	155.0	O162	101.8	127.3	70.7
Feb 28	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 88–91	+7.0	W+4.0	163.5	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Feb 26	UNC WilmingtonAdjEM #86	A	L 65–88	+13.5	L−9.5	147.5	O153	100.6	136.2	64.6
Feb 21	ElonAdjEM #228	A	W 102–82	+8.0	W+28.0	152.5	O184	150.6	121.1	67.7
Feb 19	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 61–74	+5.0	L−8.0	146.0	U135	96.2	116.7	63.4
Feb 13	HamptonAdjEM #268	N	W 71–70	+3.0	W+4.0	138.0	O141	107.1	105.6	66.3
Feb 7	CampbellAdjEM #208	H	L 71–79	+3.0	L−5.0	159.5	U150	101.2	112.6	70.2
Feb 5	CharlestonAdjEM #165	A	L 62–78	+10.5	L−5.5	155.0	U140	87.2	109.7	71.1
Jan 31	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	L 60–61	+7.5	W+6.5	138.5	U121	93.7	95.3	64.0

SC State

Against the spread

Season

13-17

Home

5-4

Road

7-12

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-15-1

Home

4-5

Road

9-9-1

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.5

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 61–78	+15.5	L−1.5	146.0	U139	82.8	105.9	73.6
Mar 12	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	N	W 88–82	+8.5	W+14.5	144.5	O170	116.6	108.6	75.5
Mar 5	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	W 80–64	+7.5	W+23.5	141.5	O144	114.6	91.7	69.8
Mar 2	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 61–59	+3.0	W+5.0	134.5	U120	99.9	96.6	61.1
Feb 28	MD EasternAdjEM #345	A	L 57–69	+6.0	L−6.0	132.5	U126	85.9	104.0	66.3
Feb 25	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 83–90	+1.5	L−5.5	154.5	O173	113.8	123.4	73.0
Feb 21	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 71–90	+10.0	L−9.0	140.5	O161	99.5	126.1	71.4
Feb 18	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 85–72	+3.0	W+16.0	137.5	O157	127.4	107.9	66.7
Feb 16	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	L 57–59	−5.0	L−7.0	139.0	U116	84.6	87.6	67.4
Feb 7	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 57–85	+14.0	L−14.0	142.5	U142	75.9	113.2	75.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NC A&TSC State

Efficiency

106.4

99.4

112.3

114.5

69.0

69.3

—

Shooting

50.7%

46.8%

52.3%

44.8%

31.6%

34.0%

73.5%

66.8%

42.3%

41.1%

Ball control & glass

18.6%

20.8%

14.1%

18.8%

31.7%

31.4%

28.6%

37.6%

9.7%

10.8%

8.4%

9.6%

Style

32.7%

33.3%

41.2%

37.2%

15.4%

13.7%

45.4%

52.6%

30.2%

44.5%

Roster

2.42

2.66

6'6"

6'6.7"

—

86.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

NC A&T

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted NC A&T's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

SC State

Returning minutes: 86.3%Returning production: 79.8%

Lost

Jayden Johnson 27.4 mpg, 13.4 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 10	2025-26	SC State 62 – 85 NC A&T

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.