Western Michigan Broncos vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons basketball preview & prediction

Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET · Memorial Coliseum (IN), Fort Wayne, IN

Non-conferenceESPN+Memorial Coliseum (IN), Fort Wayne, IN

W Michigan

2-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #233

Purdue FW

1-1 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #237

Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET

Our projected score shows once the market opens.

No line posted yet.

Our play

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Purdue FW is the faster team (71.1, #167 of 365) and W Michigan the slower (62.3, #351). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.3

per team, 40 min

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.2#350

W Michigan

70.6#176

Purdue FW

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

From the four factors

Purdue FW has the ball−1.3

W Michigan has the ball+3.3

Purdue FW has the ball

✗Few second chancesOR% 25.6% #279 · WMU allows 30.8% #171−1.8

✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.7% #237 · WMU forces 14.5% #286 · ~11 turnovers+1.3

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 19.7% #343 · WMU allows 26.5% #61 · FT 83.3% #21−0.5

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · WMU allows 50.0% #163−0.3

W Michigan has the ball

✓Shoots it welleFG% 55.1% #106 · PFW allows 57.3% #300+6.1

✗Coughs it upTO% 18.5% #198 · PFW forces 21.1% #83 · ~14 turnovers−1.6

✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.0% #309 · PFW allows 36.4% #179 · FT 63.0% #281−1.0

✗Few second chancesOR% 31.3% #185 · PFW allows 30.8% #171−0.2

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

W Michiganoffense vsPurdue FWdefense

Share of shots by zone

W Michigan shoots

29.7

4.0

22.8

43.6

Purdue FW allows

56.4

7.3

29.1

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.7%#196	67.7%#282	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	50.0%#75	50.0%#243	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.8%#168	25.0%#85	34.7%
Three	43.8%#24	31.3%#153	32.5%

Purdue FWoffense vsW Michigandefense

Share of shots by zone

Purdue FW shoots

42.6

6.6

8.2

42.6

W Michigan allows

38.1

5.7

20.0

36.2

D-I average

37.8

8.0

12.4

41.8

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	38.5%#346	65.0%#262	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	0.0%#323	16.7%#45	38.2%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	20.0%#279	42.9%#240	34.7%
Three	50.0%#3	28.2%#95	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

W Michigan

−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#220 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#185

Def reb %

69.2%

#171

Turnover %

18.5%

#198

Forced TO %

14.5%

#286

FT rate

25.0%

#309

FT allowed

26.5%

#61

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−2.6

Foul shots drawn−3.2

Foul shots allowed+3.0

Purdue FW

−4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#279

Def reb %

69.2%

#171

Turnover %

19.7%

#237

Forced TO %

21.1%

#83

FT rate

19.7%

#343

FT allowed

36.4%

#179

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.0

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−4.6

Foul shots allowed+0.4

W Michigan has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.8 (#220 of 365) to Purdue FW’s −4.8 (#245).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

W Michigan2026-27 numbers · last game: Campbell, Nov 8

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	Min/40, last 8	Last 3 vs before	Status	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	G	Jr	5'10"	3-3	28.3	37	—	Started last	13.0	3.0	4.3	1.7	60.3%	53.8%	4.3	66.7%	26.8%
3	G	Sr	6'6"	3-3	25.0	25	—	Started last	3.0	3.0	1.0	0.3	30.0%	25.0%	4.0	0.0%	13.9%
24	G	Sr	6'2"	3-3	24.7	27	—	Started last	11.7	6.3	1.0	1.0	53.8%	37.5%	5.3	70.0%	28.1%
10	G	Sr	6'7"	3-3	23.0	31	—	Started last	7.7	5.7	0.3	1.3	59.4%	33.3%	3.0	100.0%	19.5%
11	F	Sr	6'8"	3-3	23.0	29	—	Started last	11.0	4.7	1.3	2.7	56.0%	50.0%	2.7	50.0%	33.9%
1	G	Sr	6'4"	3-0	22.0	22	—	Bench	11.0	4.3	1.0	0.7	73.8%	50.0%	2.0	40.0%	22.9%
13	G	So	6'3"	3-0	14.3	15	—	Bench	3.3	2.0	1.0	0.7	45.5%	33.3%	2.0	—	18.2%
7	G	Fr	5'11"	3-0	11.0	3	—	Bench	5.0	2.0	1.3	1.3	55.6%	40.0%	1.7	100.0%	26.3%
20	C	Fr	6'11"	3-0	10.3	11	—	Bench	5.7	5.3	2.0	1.0	107.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.7%
2	F	Jr	6'6"	2-0	10.5	0	—	Missed last game	3.0	2.5	0.5	1.0	30.0%	28.6%	3.5	0.0%	33.6%
22	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	15.0	—	—	Missed last	10.0	5.0	1.0	1.0	71.4%	66.7%	3.0	—	28.3%
23	F	Fr	6'8"	1-0	9.0	—	—	Missed last	2.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	5.9%
4	G	Fr	6'0"	1-0	7.0	—	—	Missed last	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	3.0	—	22.8%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games

W Michigan

Against the spread

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg cover −0.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

1-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total −19.8

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 8	CampbellAdjEM #248	H	W 87–71	−3.5	W+12.5	152.0	O158	136.3	111.3	63.8
Nov 5	Kalamazoo Hornets	H	W 99–52	—	—	—	—	136.6	71.7	72.5
Nov 2	Old DominionAdjEM #147	A	L 49–61	−1.5	L−13.5	155.5	U110	80.7	100.5	60.7
Mar 6	Kent StateAdjEM #174	A	L 78–86	+13.5	W+5.5	157.5	O164	111.1	122.5	70.2
Mar 3	Ball StateAdjEM #295	H	L 71–74 OT	−2.0	L−5.0	138.5	O145	99.0	103.2	71.7
Feb 27	#21Miami OHAdjEM #88	H	L 67–69	+11.5	W+9.5	163.0	U136	98.3	101.2	68.2
Feb 24	Bowling GreenAdjEM #127	A	W 88–79	+12.0	W+21.0	149.0	O167	120.6	108.3	73.0
Feb 21	C MichiganAdjEM #254	A	L 70–83	+3.5	L−9.5	151.5	O153	94.0	111.5	74.5
Feb 17	AkronAdjEM #59	H	L 73–90	+14.0	L−3.0	159.0	O163	107.5	132.6	67.9
Feb 14	E MichiganAdjEM #247	A	W 76–62	+6.5	W+20.5	144.0	U138	117.6	96.0	64.6

Purdue FW

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −3.5

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	Albion Britons	H	W 103–65	—	—	—	—	130.3	82.2	79.0
Nov 3	DuquesneAdjEM #138	A	L 71–78	+9.5	W+2.5	152.5	U149	99.9	109.7	71.1
Mar 3	Green BayAdjEM #166	A	L 56–64	+4.5	L−3.5	145.0	U120	96.7	110.6	57.9
Feb 28	IU IndyAdjEM #288	A	W 87–81	−1.0	W+5.0	160.5	O168	125.0	116.4	69.6
Feb 25	Wright StAdjEM #77	H	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	152.0	U144	98.7	104.3	70.9
Feb 22	Cleveland StAdjEM #356	A	W 92–86	−3.0	W+3.0	163.0	O178	120.7	112.8	76.2
Feb 18	N KentuckyAdjEM #171	A	L 71–87	+6.0	L−10.0	154.0	O158	99.7	122.1	71.2
Feb 15	IU IndyAdjEM #288	H	W 83–78	−6.5	L−1.5	158.5	O161	110.7	104.1	75.0
Feb 12	Green BayAdjEM #166	A	L 59–76	+1.5	L−15.5	144.5	U135	100.1	129.0	58.9
Feb 7	Wright StAdjEM #77	A	L 68–73	+7.0	W+2.0	150.0	U141	109.2	117.2	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

W MichiganPurdue FW

Efficiency

105.3

103.8

109.6

108.4

67.2

70.6

-2.0

1.8

Shooting

55.1%

50.0%

46.7%

31.4%

43.8%

50.0%

63.0%

83.3%

25.0%

19.7%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

19.7%

14.5%

21.1%

31.3%

25.6%

30.8%

8.8%

11.3%

8.3%

11.4%

Style

44.4%

42.6%

33.8%

28.2%

13.2%

15.5%

53.1%

66.7%

37.7%

45.9%

Roster

3.28

2.86

6'4.1"

0.0%

28.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

W Michigan

Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%

Lost

EJ Ryans 27.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to S Dakota St
Jayden Brewer 25.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Max Burton 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Akron
Jalen Griffith 19.9 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to E Washington
Trey Lewis 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Justice Williams 17.5 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Bendinger from SC Upstate · 29.4 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
Tanner Hayhurst from Southern Utah · 28.3 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
Rob Lee Jr. from Lamar · 28.2 mpg, 16.0 ppg last season
Jaylen Washington Jr. from UT Rio Grande · 26.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
Isaac Finlinson from Hawai'i · 22.7 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
Julien Gomez from UT Rio Grande · 22.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season

Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Purdue FW

Returning minutes: 28.2%Returning production: 25.4%

Lost

Corey Hadnot II 33.2 mpg, 20.4 ppg · transferred to Houston
Mikale Stevenson 29.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Maximus Nelson 27.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Darius Duffy 21.6 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Deangelo Elisee 13.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yuval Levin 9.6 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Anthony Isaac Jr. from Manhattan · 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
Ashton Williamson from FIU · 18.4 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
Jaiden Arnold no D1 minutes last season
Tamaje Izuagbe no D1 minutes last season
Adam Walker no D1 minutes last season
Luke Balanis no D1 minutes last season

Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 12	2025-26	Purdue FW 71 – 83 W Michigan

More games on Thu, Nov 12

Kansas City vs George Mason · 3:00 PM ET
Morgan St at UMBC · 6:00 PM ET
Bradley vs Coppin St · 6:00 PM ET
Tennessee Tech at Indiana · 6:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
Niagara at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
Canisius at Brown · 7:00 PM ET
MD Eastern at Rhode Island · 7:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at W Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
Southern Utah at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
Mercer at West Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
Stetson at Howard · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
C Connecticut at Sacred Heart · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at S Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
Southern at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
LMU vs South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
Oklahoma St at Texas A&M · 8:00 PM ET
West Florida at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
New Mexico St at UTEP · 9:00 PM ET
Montana St at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
UC Riverside at San José St · 10:00 PM ET

← Wed, Nov 11 · Fri, Nov 13 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

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