CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceWilliam H. Pitt Center, Fairfield, CT
C Connecticut
Efficiency #277
2025-26: 18-12 · 12-7 conf
@
Sacred Heart
Efficiency #278
2025-26: 14-19 · 10-12 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET
73.3
win 37%
Projected
77.2
win 63%
No line posted yet.
Model: SHU −3.9 · total 150.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Sacred Heart 69.0, C Connecticut 66.7 → 67.3 possessions
−2.2
Sacred Heart offense vs C Connecticut defense
+2.2
C Connecticut offense vs Sacred Heart defense
+2.2
Projected total
150.5
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Sacred Heart offense vs C Connecticut defense
+2.2
C Connecticut offense vs Sacred Heart defense
−2.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Sacred Heart by 3.9
3.9
C Connecticut side ◂▸ Sacred Heart side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.4 against a projected 150.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Sacred Heart.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Sacred Heart is the faster team (68.4, #179 of 365) and C Connecticut the slower (65.2, #325). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
150.5
model
Projected team totals
73.3 / 77.2
C Connecticut / Sacred Heart
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.7#308
C Connecticut
69.0#126
Sacred Heart

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageC Connecticut
Where C Connecticut scores: ball control
C Connecticut turns it over on 16.2% of possessions (#153); Sacred Heart forces turnovers on 14.5% of opponent possessions (#320). Expect about 15.0%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSacred Heart
Where Sacred Heart scores: ball control
Sacred Heart turns it over on 17.7% of possessions (#250); C Connecticut forces turnovers on 14.0% of opponent possessions (#336). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashC Connecticut
Style clash: 3-point volume
C Connecticut rarely shoots threes (34.9% of its shots); Sacred Heart lets opponents take 43.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
C Connecticut has the ball
OffenseSacred Heart allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #165
53.5% #283
+1.9 pt/100
16.2% #153
14.5% #320
+2.1 pt/100
27.5% #281
30.9% #199
-1.1 pt/100
31.2% #276
27.0% #24
-0.8 pt/100
76.7% #38
—
+0.4 pt/100
C Connecticut net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Sacred Heart has the ball
OffenseC Connecticut allowsvs D1 avg
52.0% #145
50.2% #113
-0.2 pt/100
17.7% #250
14.0% #336
+1.6 pt/100
28.6% #246
30.4% #179
-0.8 pt/100
31.0% #281
26.9% #22
-0.8 pt/100
78.0% #19
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacred Heart net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
C Connecticutoffense vsSacred Heartdefense
Share of shots by zone
C Connecticut shoots
Sacred Heart allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.0%#16360.4%#24658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)54.1%#248.2%#34139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23138.1%#16238.0%
Three35.8%#6934.8%#24133.7%
Sacred Heartoffense vsC Connecticutdefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacred Heart shoots
C Connecticut allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#22554.5%#5058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)41.2%#14147.7%#33839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27742.0%#30238.0%
Three35.7%#7333.4%#14633.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
C Connecticut
−1.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#243 of 365
Off reb %
27.5%
#281
Def reb %
69.6%
#179
Turnover %
16.2%
#153
Forced TO %
14.0%
#336
FT rate
31.2%
#276
FT allowed
26.9%
#22
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1
Sacred Heart
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#246
Def reb %
69.1%
#199
Turnover %
17.7%
#250
Forced TO %
14.5%
#320
FT rate
31.0%
#281
FT allowed
27.0%
#24
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+2.1

C Connecticut has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.2 (#243 of 365) to Sacred Heart’s −1.7 (#261).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

C Connecticut2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
5Darin Smith Jr.FSo6'7"30-3032.720.75.41.21.651.9%37.6%5.089.8%35.9%
1Jay RodgersGSr6'3"30-2829.211.02.26.92.748.9%36.2%3.181.7%27.0%
34Max FrazierFJr6'9"30-3028.212.07.20.91.365.8%0.0%0.160.0%22.7%
24James JonesGSo6'6"26-2328.84.25.61.20.842.5%28.6%1.159.1%11.8%
6Melo SanchezGSr6'4"29-2624.89.62.10.80.959.7%42.8%4.880.0%21.5%
0Elijah ParkerGFr6'3"29-214.62.42.01.10.845.5%26.9%0.942.1%14.1%
22Daniel JamesFSo6'8"28-512.63.53.10.40.456.3%31.8%0.873.9%16.2%
3Roddy JonesGFr6'1"23-010.74.30.50.10.256.3%38.8%3.5100.0%22.7%
13Ashton ReynoldsGFr6'4"23-110.13.72.00.30.350.8%31.6%0.881.5%21.6%
2Nico AshleyFSr6'7"18-19.83.31.30.60.558.0%25.0%0.769.2%19.6%
12Gabe SpinelliGSr6'3"11-014.74.71.71.10.953.7%44.4%0.8100.0%19.3%
10Ja'Kobe WilliamsGSr6'3"7-418.13.32.92.01.028.6%20.0%1.470.0%17.9%
11Jayden MottFSo6'8"14-08.91.91.90.30.847.9%33.3%0.240.0%18.7%
15Adam FoxGFr6'5"2-05.51.51.01.00.050.0%33.3%1.5—14.0%
20Corsley Edwards Jr.GFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Rashawn TibbyFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
C ConnecticutSacred Heart
Efficiency
106.6
107.6
112.6
113.6
66.7
69.0
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
52.0%
50.5%
50.4%
35.8%
35.7%
76.7%
78.0%
31.2%
31.0%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
17.7%
14.0%
14.5%
27.5%
28.6%
30.4%
30.9%
9.6%
10.2%
6.5%
9.3%
Style
34.9%
50.7%
42.0%
34.4%
9.6%
11.8%
50.9%
58.6%
29.0%
24.0%
Roster
2.67
3.12
6'5.5"
6'5.2"
—
16.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
C Connecticut
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted C Connecticut's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Sacred Heart
Returning minutes: 16.0%Returning production: 11.8%
Lost
  • Dashon Gittens 33.0 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Yann Farell 29.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Nyle Ralph-Beyer 28.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mekhi Conner 27.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Anquan Hill 26.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fallou Gueye 10.8 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jo Van Buggenhout from Indiana St · 16.9 mpg, 5.1 ppg last season
  • Jaylen Robinson from Richmond · 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
  • Samson Reilly from Quinnipiac · 7.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
  • Kevin Pikiell no D1 minutes last season
  • Griffin Barrouk no D1 minutes last season
  • Landon Krygier no D1 minutes last season

Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Mon, Nov 242025-26Sacred Heart 106 – 108 C Connecticut

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.