CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteMcArthur Center, St. Petersburg, FLShowdown in St. Pete
Kansas City
Efficiency #359
2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf
vs
George Mason
Efficiency #83
2025-26: 23-10 · 11-8 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · TBD
64.0
win 11%
Projected
78.6
win 89%
No line posted yet.
Model: GMU −14.5 · total 142.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: George Mason 65.9, Kansas City 69.9 → 67.5 possessions
−1.8
George Mason offense vs Kansas City defense
+5.4
Kansas City offense vs George Mason defense
−9.2
Projected total
142.6
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
George Mason offense vs Kansas City defense
+5.4
Kansas City offense vs George Mason defense
+9.2
George Mason by 14.5
14.5
Kansas City side ◂▸ George Mason side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +14.6 against +14.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help George Mason.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and George Mason the slower (64.7, #334). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.5
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.6
model
Projected team totals
64.0 / 78.6
Kansas City / George Mason
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#54
Kansas City
65.9#345
George Mason
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageKansas City
Where Kansas City struggles: shooting
Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); George Mason allows 49.5% (#83). Expect about 47.2%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGeorge Mason
Where George Mason scores: shooting
George Mason shoots an effective 52.7% (#113); Kansas City allows 56.3% (#348). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
George Mason averages 64.7 possessions per 40, Kansas City 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassKansas City
Kansas City gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.
GlassGeorge Mason
George Mason owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.7% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for George Mason's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas City, Kansas City's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Kansas City at about 39.2% of its shots from three, George Mason about 35.7%.
Kansas City has the ball
OffenseGeorge Mason allowsvs D1 avg
45.7% #352
49.5% #83
-5.8 pt/100
18.2% #281
15.4% #256
+0.1 pt/100
26.4% #314
28.3% #79
-2.3 pt/100
29.2% #330
28.9% #43
-0.8 pt/100
66.2% #352
—
-0.5 pt/100
Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.5 pts/100
George Mason has the ball
OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg
52.7% #113
56.3% #348
+4.8 pt/100
15.8% #122
16.4% #192
+1.0 pt/100
31.3% #149
35.9% #353
+2.0 pt/100
41.1% #44
31.4% #94
+0.1 pt/100
72.5% #188
—
+0.0 pt/100
George Mason net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersKansas Cityoffense vsGeorge Masondefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas City shoots
34.3
9.1
19.7
37.0
George Mason allows
36.2
7.3
14.6
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.7%#322 | 60.1%#234 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.3%#263 | 38.8%#157 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.1%#260 | 30.9%#8 | 38.0% |
| Three | 28.4%#360 | 32.6%#91 | 33.7% |
George Masonoffense vsKansas Citydefense
Share of shots by zone
George Mason shoots
39.9
8.7
16.4
35.0
Kansas City allows
43.0
5.0
13.9
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.8%#40 | 63.1%#326 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 47.5%#34 | 39.7%#185 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.0%#313 | 40.9%#273 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#214 | 37.6%#350 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersKansas City
−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365
Off reb %
26.4%
#314
Def reb %
64.1%
#353
Turnover %
18.2%
#281
Forced TO %
16.4%
#192
FT rate
29.2%
#330
FT allowed
31.4%
#94
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−1.7
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+1.0
George Mason
+4.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#36 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#149
Def reb %
71.7%
#79
Turnover %
15.8%
#122
Forced TO %
15.4%
#256
FT rate
41.1%
#44
FT allowed
28.9%
#43
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+0.7
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6
George Mason has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.1 (#36 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Kansas City2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CJ Evans | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-30 | 30.4 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 1.6 | 70.9% | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Karmello Branch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47.1% | 32.7% | 7.3 | 84.5% | 25.3% | |
| 33 | Jerome Palm | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-27 | 26.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Kasheem Grady II | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-11 | 25.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 80.8% | 24.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Dockery | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-20 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 32.1% | 1.0 | 56.7% | 19.8% | |
| 23 | Addarin Scott | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-5 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.9% | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Jamaria Clark | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 35.9% | 21.3% | 1.7 | 95.0% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Trey Booker-Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 25-1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44.2% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 53.6% | 31.1% | |
| 21 | Babacar Mbengue | F | So | 7'0" | 25-1 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 26.3% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Kernan Bundy | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 27.5% | 23.1% | 2.2 | 77.8% | 21.5% | |
| 13 | D'Andre Harrison | F | Fr | 6'6" | 6-1 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 62.5% | 15.2% | |
| 5 | Cory Curtis Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Jason Hilliard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Max Sims | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
George Mason2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kory Mincy | G | Jr | 6'2" | 33-32 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 53.5% | 38.9% | 5.3 | 88.7% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Jahari Long | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.8 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 53.8% | 37.7% | 3.9 | 82.6% | 22.1% | |
| 35 | Riley Allenspach | F | Jr | 6'11" | 32-31 | 24.9 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 60.2% | 31.3% | 2.1 | 68.0% | 30.2% | |
| 0 | Masai Troutman | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-22 | 25.1 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 49.2% | 33.3% | 3.1 | 81.1% | 21.9% | |
| 5 | Fatt Hill | G | Sr | 6'5" | 23-4 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 51.6% | 28.0% | 1.1 | 73.7% | 27.9% | |
| 13 | Malik Presley | G | Jr | 6'6" | 33-22 | 16.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 53.5% | 31.8% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 14.4% | |
| 10 | Emmanuel Kanga | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 58.1% | — | 0.0 | 59.5% | 20.3% | |
| 23 | Nick Ellington | F | Sr | 6'8" | 31-5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 57.1% | 100.0% | 0.0 | 64.7% | 21.9% | |
| 9 | Stas Sivka | F | So | 6'10" | 29-2 | 11.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 1.3 | 73.3% | 14.7% | |
| 4 | Dola Adebayo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 27-13 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 46.2% | 26.1% | 0.9 | 80.8% | 20.7% | |
| 11 | Devin Booker | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-0 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 35.6% | 22.6% | 1.2 | 53.3% | 19.8% | |
| 1 | Brayden O'Connor | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-1 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 44.0% | |
| 14 | T.J. Prosise | G | So | 6'3" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 22.2% | |
| 12 | Ben Woodward | G | Jr | 6'4" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4 | — | 22.5% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Skinn | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 31 | Ryan-Preston Mendy | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas City2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CJ Evans | G | Jr | 5'11" | 30-30 | 30.4 | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 43.4% | 22.4% | 1.6 | 70.9% | 27.6% | |
| 0 | Karmello Branch | G | Jr | 6'4" | 28-26 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47.1% | 32.7% | 7.3 | 84.5% | 25.3% | |
| 33 | Jerome Palm | F | Sr | 6'10" | 31-27 | 26.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 48.9% | 21.7% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Kasheem Grady II | G | Sr | 6'5" | 30-11 | 25.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 | 80.8% | 24.3% | |
| 4 | Chris Dockery | G | Jr | 6'6" | 29-20 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 54.8% | 32.1% | 1.0 | 56.7% | 19.8% | |
| 23 | Addarin Scott | F | Sr | 6'8" | 29-5 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 57.9% | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Jamaria Clark | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-1 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 35.9% | 21.3% | 1.7 | 95.0% | 18.1% | |
| 8 | Trey Booker-Lowery | G | Jr | 6'7" | 25-1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 44.2% | 32.3% | 1.2 | 53.6% | 31.1% | |
| 21 | Babacar Mbengue | F | So | 7'0" | 25-1 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 48.0% | — | 0.0 | 26.3% | 12.8% | |
| 11 | Kernan Bundy | G | Sr | 6'2" | 6-1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 27.5% | 23.1% | 2.2 | 77.8% | 21.5% | |
| 13 | D'Andre Harrison | F | Fr | 6'6" | 6-1 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 62.5% | 15.2% | |
| 5 | Cory Curtis Jr. | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Jason Hilliard | F | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 6 | Max Sims | G | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Kansas City
Against the spread
Season
5-23
Home
1-10
Road
4-12
Last 10
0-10
avg cover −11.4
Missed the spread 15 straightCovered 0 of 10 as an underdogCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
16-12
Home
6-5
Road
10-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total −2.1
Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | Oral Roberts | N | L 62–84 | +8.5 | L−13.5 | 149.0 | U146 | 88.9 | 120.5 | 69.7 |
| Feb 28 | Oral Roberts | H | L 70–94 | +3.5 | L−20.5 | 149.5 | O164 | 95.1 | 127.7 | 73.6 |
| Feb 26 | S Dakota St | H | L 59–73 | +12.0 | L−2.0 | 151.0 | U132 | 92.0 | 113.8 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | N Dakota St | A | L 59–95 | +19.5 | L−16.5 | 147.5 | O154 | 76.4 | 123.0 | 77.2 |
| Feb 19 | North Dakota | A | L 70–85 | +9.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | O155 | 90.7 | 110.2 | 77.1 |
| Feb 14 | St Thomas | H | L 64–104 | +13.0 | L−27.0 | 153.5 | O168 | 87.9 | 142.9 | 72.8 |
| Feb 12 | Oral Roberts | A | L 60–69 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U129 | 92.2 | 106.0 | 65.1 |
| Feb 4 | South Dakota | H | L 75–82 OT | +2.0 | L−5.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 93.3 | 102.0 | 80.4 |
| Feb 1 | St Thomas | A | L 64–99 | +18.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | O163 | 86.5 | 133.8 | 74.0 |
| Jan 28 | Denver | H | L 61–69 | +3.5 | L−4.5 | 163.0 | U130 | 90.6 | 102.5 | 67.3 |
George Mason
Against the spread
Season
16-16
Home
11-8
Road
3-7
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −3.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-17
Home
8-11
Road
6-4
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −7.2
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17 | Liberty | H | L 71–77 | −3.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O148 | 112.8 | 122.3 | 63.0 |
| Mar 12 | St Bonaventure | N | L 57–63 | −2.5 | L−8.5 | 142.5 | U120 | 93.7 | 103.5 | 60.9 |
| Mar 7 | #25Saint Louis | H | W 86–57 | +7.0 | W+36.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 136.6 | 90.6 | 62.9 |
| Mar 3 | VCU | A | L 65–70 | +10.0 | W+5.0 | 147.5 | U135 | 106.9 | 115.1 | 60.8 |
| Feb 28 | St Bonaventure | H | W 71–58 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 147.0 | U129 | 119.8 | 97.9 | 59.3 |
| Feb 25 | Saint Joseph's | A | L 63–81 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 136.5 | O144 | 97.7 | 125.7 | 64.5 |
| Feb 18 | Dayton | H | L 67–82 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 137.0 | O149 | 106.8 | 130.8 | 62.7 |
| Feb 13 | G Washington | A | L 53–72 | +3.5 | L−15.5 | 150.0 | U125 | 90.2 | 122.6 | 58.8 |
| Feb 10 | Richmond | A | L 70–82 | −3.0 | L−15.0 | 140.0 | O152 | 99.8 | 116.9 | 70.1 |
| Feb 7 | Saint Joseph's | H | W 60–52 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 139.5 | U112 | 99.5 | 86.2 | 60.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeKansas CityGeorge Mason
Efficiency
97.7
110.8
114.1
105.7
69.9
65.9
—
—
Shooting
45.7%
52.7%
47.6%
54.3%
28.4%
33.3%
66.2%
72.5%
29.2%
41.1%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
15.8%
16.4%
15.4%
26.4%
31.3%
35.9%
28.3%
10.9%
9.6%
9.4%
9.8%
Style
36.8%
35.2%
46.9%
46.4%
14.5%
12.1%
46.2%
49.9%
29.7%
33.9%
Roster
3.32
3.24
6'5"
6'6"
84.5%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputKansas City
Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%
Lost
- Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan
Added
- Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
- Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
George Mason
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted George Mason's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.