CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSECU Arena, Towson, MD410 Invitational

Loyola MD

Efficiency #313

2025-26: 12-20 · 8-11 conf

Towson

Efficiency #149

2025-26: 19-15 · 11-10 conf

Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET

65.6

win 19%

Projected

75.9

win 81%

No line posted yet.

Model: TOW −10.2 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Towson 65.7, Loyola MD 68.8 → 66.2 possessions

−4.6

Towson offense vs Loyola MD defense

+2.1

Loyola MD offense vs Towson defense

−4.3

Projected total

141.5

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Towson offense vs Loyola MD defense

+2.1

Loyola MD offense vs Towson defense

+4.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Towson by 10.2

10.2

Loyola MD side ◂▸ Towson side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.4 against a projected 141.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Towson.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola MD is the faster team (68.1, #194 of 365) and Towson the slower (63.8, #358). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

141.5

model

Projected team totals

65.6 / 75.9

Loyola MD / Towson

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.8#134

Loyola MD

65.7#350

Towson

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Towson averages 63.8 possessions per 40, Loyola MD 68.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageLoyola MD

Where Loyola MD struggles: shooting

Loyola MD shoots an effective 50.4% (#219); Towson allows 48.5% (#49). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversLoyola MD

Loyola MD protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Loyola MD's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Towson, Towson's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Loyola MD at about 46.9% of its shots from three, Towson about 35.9%.

AdvantageTowson

Where Towson scores: the offensive glass

Towson rebounds 36.0% of its own misses (#24); Loyola MD lets opponents grab 29.0% of their own misses (#103). Expect about 33.6%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversTowson

Towson protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Towson's offense.

Loyola MD has the ball

OffenseTowson allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #219

48.5% #49

-2.7 pt/100

15.5% #105

15.1% #274

+2.2 pt/100

27.6% #279

29.1% #117

-1.6 pt/100

29.9% #312

29.3% #49

-0.7 pt/100

71.5% #223

—

-0.1 pt/100

Loyola MD net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.9 pts/100

Towson has the ball

OffenseLoyola MD allowsvs D1 avg

46.5% #345

54.7% #321

-1.4 pt/100

15.9% #129

15.3% #265

+1.8 pt/100

36.0% #24

29.0% #103

+2.0 pt/100

30.4% #299

32.7% #123

-0.4 pt/100

68.9% #300

—

-0.3 pt/100

Towson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Loyola MDoffense vsTowsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Loyola MD shoots

36.6

7.1

9.0

47.2

Towson allows

36.8

6.5

16.2

40.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#251	56.4%#96	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.6%#44	42.1%#232	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.1%#262	37.6%#148	38.0%
Three	32.6%#251	30.9%#33	33.7%

Towsonoffense vsLoyola MDdefense

Share of shots by zone

Towson shoots

34.7

6.1

24.2

35.0

Loyola MD allows

36.9

5.5

17.4

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	54.9%#300	65.1%#352	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.4%#166	52.3%#359	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#159	47.3%#362	38.0%
Three	29.4%#349	32.8%#106	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Loyola MD

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#240 of 365

Off reb %

27.6%

#279

Def reb %

71.0%

#103

Turnover %

15.5%

#105

Forced TO %

15.3%

#265

FT rate

29.9%

#312

FT allowed

32.7%

#123

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Towson

+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#90 of 365

Off reb %

36.0%

#24

Def reb %

70.9%

#117

Turnover %

15.9%

#129

Forced TO %

15.1%

#274

FT rate

30.4%

#299

FT allowed

29.3%

#49

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.8

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Towson has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.2 (#90 of 365) to Loyola MD’s −1.1 (#240).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Loyola MD2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Braeden Speed	G	So	6'3"	32-32	32.7	15.3	4.4	3.8	2.0	52.3%	36.5%	4.6	82.2%	26.9%
3	Jordan Stiemke	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	27.5	9.9	3.1	1.4	0.9	48.6%	33.7%	5.1	81.1%	22.1%
15	Tyson Commander	G	Sr	6'4"	31-17	23.5	4.1	2.6	1.1	1.2	54.8%	40.8%	1.6	72.2%	11.9%
18	Emmett Adair	F	Fr	6'9"	27-15	25.4	14.6	5.4	1.0	1.4	53.5%	31.5%	5.3	81.1%	33.2%
22	Sam Springer	F	So	6'7"	32-31	16.8	4.9	2.2	0.6	0.7	50.0%	35.1%	2.3	68.3%	18.2%
24	Sebastien Emenalo	G	Fr	6'6"	31-0	14.5	3.2	3.3	0.4	0.5	45.9%	30.9%	1.8	47.6%	16.0%
2	Troy Cicero Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	13.9	5.8	2.2	0.7	0.5	52.5%	38.0%	3.8	77.3%	24.6%
1	Carter Berg-McLean	G	Fr	6'4"	30-0	13.9	3.3	2.5	1.6	0.7	41.9%	19.2%	0.9	76.2%	18.4%
7	Jonas Sirtautas	F	Jr	6'10"	19-12	19.3	6.5	3.6	0.6	0.9	63.3%	14.3%	0.7	47.9%	18.7%
17	Everett Barnes	F	Fr	6'9"	25-5	8.5	1.5	1.6	0.3	0.3	51.5%	40.0%	0.2	20.0%	13.6%
14	Garrett Brennan	G	Sr	6'4"	14-1	4.1	0.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	36.7%	12.5%	0.6	28.6%	18.8%
13	Ben Menker	G	So	6'5"	12-0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	26.8%
5	Peter Sposito	G	Sr	6'2"	11-1	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	0.0%	30.1%
8	Goap Kodi	F	So	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Towson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Towson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Dylan Williamson	G	Jr	6'1"	34-34	35.9	14.6	2.5	3.4	1.7	47.3%	34.0%	7.3	74.5%	28.8%
15	Tyler Tejada	G	Jr	6'9"	32-31	35.5	17.7	5.5	2.3	1.7	48.0%	29.1%	4.6	88.2%	31.7%
21	Jack Doumbia Jr.	F	Sr	6'6"	32-6	23.9	10.7	5.6	1.8	2.0	44.7%	12.2%	1.3	65.4%	33.7%
23	Caleb Embeya	F	So	6'9"	34-16	20.7	3.6	5.8	0.4	0.9	50.0%	—	0.0	59.1%	12.7%
3	Tyler Coleman	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	19.9	5.3	3.7	0.3	0.8	51.2%	35.7%	0.9	72.5%	17.3%
24	Jaquan Womack	G	Fr	6'6"	32-10	19.3	7.1	4.1	0.6	1.0	44.9%	27.6%	2.7	64.8%	27.0%
41	Mor Seck	C	Sr	7'1"	34-17	14.5	3.2	3.9	0.1	0.8	54.5%	—	0.0	43.3%	16.4%
1	Tyler Schmidt	G	Sr	6'3"	32-13	14.1	3.1	1.4	0.8	0.3	48.4%	27.1%	1.8	85.7%	14.8%
13	Chike Ndefo	G	Fr	6'7"	32-9	12.6	2.9	2.9	0.2	0.7	46.7%	12.5%	0.3	46.9%	18.2%
0	Ryan Conway	G	Sr	6'1"	23-9	10.1	3.5	0.7	0.3	0.2	54.3%	36.4%	2.9	71.4%	20.6%
2	Jaiden Cole	G	Jr	6'4"	8-0	9.8	5.1	1.9	1.6	0.4	54.4%	39.1%	2.9	80.0%	27.9%
12	Abdou Samb	F	Sr	6'8"	7-1	7.6	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	50.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	8.4%
22	Ryan Skerry	G	Jr	6'4"	10-0	3.3	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.2	10.7%	12.5%	0.8	—	26.8%
30	Brandon Holmes	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
5	Jon Barton	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Loyola MD2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Braeden Speed	G	So	6'3"	32-32	32.7	15.3	4.4	3.8	2.0	52.3%	36.5%	4.6	82.2%	26.9%
3	Jordan Stiemke	G	Jr	6'5"	32-28	27.5	9.9	3.1	1.4	0.9	48.6%	33.7%	5.1	81.1%	22.1%
15	Tyson Commander	G	Sr	6'4"	31-17	23.5	4.1	2.6	1.1	1.2	54.8%	40.8%	1.6	72.2%	11.9%
18	Emmett Adair	F	Fr	6'9"	27-15	25.4	14.6	5.4	1.0	1.4	53.5%	31.5%	5.3	81.1%	33.2%
22	Sam Springer	F	So	6'7"	32-31	16.8	4.9	2.2	0.6	0.7	50.0%	35.1%	2.3	68.3%	18.2%
24	Sebastien Emenalo	G	Fr	6'6"	31-0	14.5	3.2	3.3	0.4	0.5	45.9%	30.9%	1.8	47.6%	16.0%
2	Troy Cicero Jr.	G	Jr	6'2"	32-0	13.9	5.8	2.2	0.7	0.5	52.5%	38.0%	3.8	77.3%	24.6%
1	Carter Berg-McLean	G	Fr	6'4"	30-0	13.9	3.3	2.5	1.6	0.7	41.9%	19.2%	0.9	76.2%	18.4%
7	Jonas Sirtautas	F	Jr	6'10"	19-12	19.3	6.5	3.6	0.6	0.9	63.3%	14.3%	0.7	47.9%	18.7%
17	Everett Barnes	F	Fr	6'9"	25-5	8.5	1.5	1.6	0.3	0.3	51.5%	40.0%	0.2	20.0%	13.6%
14	Garrett Brennan	G	Sr	6'4"	14-1	4.1	0.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	36.7%	12.5%	0.6	28.6%	18.8%
13	Ben Menker	G	So	6'5"	12-0	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.2	50.0%	33.3%	0.5	—	26.8%
5	Peter Sposito	G	Sr	6'2"	11-1	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1	21.4%	25.0%	0.4	0.0%	30.1%
8	Goap Kodi	F	So	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Loyola MD

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

7-5

Road

8-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

6-6

Road

11-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.9

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	L 77–90	+5.5	L−7.5	154.0	O167	119.4	139.5	64.5
Feb 28	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	A	W 76–62	+1.0	W+15.0	151.0	U138	120.0	97.9	63.3
Feb 25	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 51–78	+6.5	L−20.5	146.5	U129	83.8	128.1	60.9
Feb 21	ColgateAdjEM #223	A	L 98–101 OT	+8.5	W+5.5	149.5	O199	112.3	115.7	87.3
Feb 18	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	L 77–87	−4.5	L−14.5	150.0	O164	111.6	126.1	69.0
Feb 15	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	W 83–73	−4.5	W+5.5	145.5	O156	127.5	112.2	65.1
Feb 11	LafayetteAdjEM #319	A	W 68–54	+3.0	W+17.0	148.5	U122	103.9	82.5	65.5
Feb 7	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–78	+5.0	L−4.0	146.0	O147	99.1	112.0	69.6
Feb 4	LehighAdjEM #273	H	W 89–84 2OT	−2.5	W+2.5	149.5	O173	110.9	104.7	80.3
Jan 31	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 71–87	+10.0	L−6.0	143.5	O158	108.8	133.3	65.3

Towson

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

5-7

Road

4-8-1

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover +1.2

Covered 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

12-20

Home

3-9

Road

5-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	HofstraAdjEM #69	N	L 65–68 OT	+4.0	W+1.0	131.5	O133	106.8	111.7	60.9
Mar 8	CharlestonAdjEM #165	N	W 81–56	+2.5	W+27.5	139.0	U137	134.0	92.7	60.4
Mar 7	HamptonAdjEM #268	N	W 74–68	−7.5	L−1.5	132.0	O142	108.9	100.1	67.9
Mar 3	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	W 69–57	−1.0	W+11.0	135.5	U126	112.7	93.1	61.2
Feb 28	CampbellAdjEM #208	H	W 71–67	−5.0	L−1.0	141.5	U138	120.0	113.2	59.2
Feb 26	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 58–56	−5.5	L−3.5	144.0	U114	94.1	90.9	61.6
Feb 22	DrexelAdjEM #214	A	L 62–68	−2.5	L−8.5	131.0	U130	93.9	102.9	66.1
Feb 15	MonmouthAdjEM #173	A	L 71–72	+1.0	P0.0	137.5	O143	109.1	110.7	65.0
Feb 12	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	H	W 69–57	−6.5	W+5.5	135.0	U126	108.8	89.9	63.4
Feb 7	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 49–71	+4.0	L−18.0	139.0	U120	79.3	114.9	61.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Loyola MDTowson

Efficiency

105.6

106.1

114.0

104.9

68.8

65.7

—

Shooting

50.4%

46.5%

51.9%

47.8%

32.6%

29.4%

71.5%

68.9%

29.9%

30.4%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

15.9%

15.3%

15.1%

27.6%

36.0%

29.0%

29.1%

8.7%

7.4%

8.3%

7.6%

Style

47.2%

34.9%

40.4%

43.4%

10.0%

13.0%

48.8%

38.9%

37.7%

35.0%

Roster

2.26

2.98

6'5.4"

6'6.2"

90.3%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Loyola MD

Returning minutes: 90.3%Returning production: 86.5%

Lost

Jacob Theodosiou 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Duke

Added

Goap Kodi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Towson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Towson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Nov 3	2025-26	Towson 67 – 56 Loyola MD(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.