CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDon Haskins Center, El Paso, TX
New Mexico St
Efficiency #178
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-13 conf
@
UTEP
Efficiency #279
2025-26: 11-20 · 7-13 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · TBD
70.8
win 50%
Projected
70.7
win 50%
No line posted yet.
Model: NMSU −0.1 · total 141.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UTEP 66.9, New Mexico St 67.8 → 66.4 possessions
−4.1
UTEP offense vs New Mexico St defense
−3.3
New Mexico St offense vs UTEP defense
+0.6
Projected total
141.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UTEP offense vs New Mexico St defense
−3.3
New Mexico St offense vs UTEP defense
−0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
New Mexico St by 0.1
0.1
New Mexico St side ◂▸ UTEP side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.4 against a projected 141.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UTEP.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, New Mexico St is the faster team (67.3, #233 of 365) and UTEP the slower (66.0, #296). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.5
model
Projected team totals
70.8 / 70.7
New Mexico St / UTEP
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#224
New Mexico St
66.9#294
UTEP

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUTEP
Where UTEP struggles: shooting
UTEP shoots an effective 48.3% (#309); New Mexico St allows 48.7% (#52). Expect about 48.2%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Half-court grind
UTEP averages 66.0 possessions per 40, New Mexico St 67.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNew Mexico St
Where New Mexico St struggles: shooting
New Mexico St shoots an effective 48.5% (#302); UTEP allows 51.5% (#187). Expect about 49.8%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions.
GlassUTEP
UTEP gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.4% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against UTEP's offense.
ClashUTEP
Style match: ball movement
UTEP creates off the dribble (assists on 48.0% of its baskets); New Mexico St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.8% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.
GlassNew Mexico St
New Mexico St owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions for New Mexico St's offense.
New Mexico St has the ball
OffenseUTEP allowsvs D1 avg
48.5% #302
51.5% #187
-2.1 pt/100
15.0% #68
18.0% #98
+0.3 pt/100
32.5% #105
32.8% #293
+1.6 pt/100
34.9% #186
42.0% #321
+0.5 pt/100
73.5% #153
—
+0.1 pt/100
New Mexico St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100
UTEP has the ball
OffenseNew Mexico St allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #309
48.7% #52
-4.4 pt/100
17.4% #230
14.7% #313
+1.2 pt/100
26.2% #319
30.3% #175
-1.8 pt/100
33.4% #227
44.2% #346
+0.6 pt/100
70.4% #260
—
-0.2 pt/100
UTEP net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
New Mexico Stoffense vsUTEPdefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico St shoots
UTEP allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.0%#27258.8%#17858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.5%#16540.7%#20439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.6%#12742.0%#30238.0%
Three32.4%#25734.0%#18233.7%
UTEPoffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UTEP shoots
New Mexico St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.3%#8558.8%#18058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.4%#25937.1%#11339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)31.7%#34227.5%#238.0%
Three33.9%#17832.4%#8333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
New Mexico St
−1.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#262 of 365
Off reb %
32.5%
#105
Def reb %
69.7%
#175
Turnover %
15.0%
#68
Forced TO %
14.7%
#313
FT rate
34.9%
#186
FT allowed
44.2%
#346
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−2.3
UTEP
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#325 of 365
Off reb %
26.2%
#319
Def reb %
67.2%
#293
Turnover %
17.4%
#230
Forced TO %
18.0%
#98
FT rate
33.4%
#227
FT allowed
42.0%
#321
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−1.7

New Mexico St has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.7 (#262 of 365) to UTEP’s −3.8 (#325).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

New Mexico St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
21Jemel JonesGSr6'4"32-3028.417.84.42.41.448.4%37.2%4.383.5%36.9%
0Julius MimsFSr6'9"31-3127.510.68.40.61.059.7%31.3%1.064.6%20.9%
9Anthony WrzeszczGSr6'4"32-2624.67.42.11.00.749.5%32.9%5.285.0%18.6%
4Jae'Coby OsborneFSo6'6"32-2023.36.04.90.60.855.9%15.8%0.659.3%15.3%
1Gabe PickensGSo6'0"31-2420.84.51.63.01.742.5%28.6%1.666.0%18.3%
8Jayland RandallGSr6'5"32-119.98.93.10.70.644.4%31.3%4.082.9%27.6%
11Elijah ElliottGSr6'1"31-718.68.31.92.31.341.6%31.6%3.777.1%31.6%
5Chris TerrellGSr6'0"31-112.84.21.51.90.851.4%43.2%1.478.3%21.4%
3Kyrese MullenFSr6'7"26-414.03.83.80.41.038.8%26.5%1.358.0%22.1%
24Cyr MalongaCJr6'11"24-1611.63.72.50.20.767.3%—0.047.8%17.8%
44Augustine EkweCFr6'9"23-010.42.72.40.20.657.4%—0.081.8%16.3%
12Christian VillegasGSr6'2"5-03.40.80.60.20.421.4%20.0%1.050.0%31.6%
20Amarco DoyleFSo6'7"3-05.03.01.70.00.750.0%33.3%3.0—39.9%
7Teysean EaglestaffFSo6'7"4-02.00.00.00.00.00.0%0.0%0.5—21.2%
2Omarr SmithGFr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
New Mexico StUTEP
Efficiency
108.7
103.1
108.9
109.2
67.8
66.9
—
—
Shooting
48.5%
48.3%
48.5%
46.5%
32.4%
33.9%
73.5%
70.4%
34.9%
33.4%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
17.4%
14.7%
18.0%
32.5%
26.2%
30.3%
32.8%
9.0%
9.4%
8.1%
8.4%
Style
38.7%
40.3%
38.3%
37.2%
15.2%
13.7%
49.3%
48.0%
37.6%
26.8%
Roster
3.41
3.07
6'4.7"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
New Mexico St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted New Mexico St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UTEP
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UTEP's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Nov 192026-27UTEP 0 – 0 New Mexico St
Sat, Feb 212025-26UTEP 63 – 67 New Mexico St
Sat, Feb 72025-26New Mexico St 88 – 91 UTEP

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.