CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferencePizzitola Sports Center, Providence, RI
Canisius
Efficiency #344
2025-26: 10-21 · 5-15 conf
@
Brown
Efficiency #275
2025-26: 9-18 · 3-11 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ET
62.9
win 25%
Projected
70.7
win 75%
No line posted yet.
Model: BRWN −7.8 · total 133.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Brown 67.9, Canisius 66.2 → 65.7 possessions
−5.6
Brown offense vs Canisius defense
−2.5
Canisius offense vs Brown defense
−6.5
Projected total
133.6
Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Brown offense vs Canisius defense
−2.5
Canisius offense vs Brown defense
+6.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Brown by 7.8
7.8
Canisius side ◂▸ Brown side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Brown.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Brown is the faster team (66.7, #260 of 365) and Canisius the slower (64.3, #348). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
133.6
model
Projected team totals
62.9 / 70.7
Canisius / Brown
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#336
Canisius
67.9#220
Brown
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Brown averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Canisius 64.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageCanisius
Where Canisius struggles: shooting
Canisius shoots an effective 46.3% (#348); Brown allows 51.3% (#176). Expect about 48.4%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversCanisius
Canisius turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.6% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against Canisius's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Brown) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Canisius at about 41.8% of its shots from three, Brown about 39.9%.
ClashCanisius
Style match: paint scoring
Canisius gets only 39.3% of its points in the paint; Brown protects the paint (38.4% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.5% — both habits push the same way.
Canisius has the ball
OffenseBrown allowsvs D1 avg
46.3% #348
51.3% #176
-4.0 pt/100
19.6% #341
18.7% #62
-3.5 pt/100
29.3% #226
30.0% #164
-0.6 pt/100
31.4% #271
37.6% #253
-0.0 pt/100
71.9% #212
—
-0.0 pt/100
Canisius net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -8.2 pts/100
Brown has the ball
OffenseCanisius allowsvs D1 avg
48.6% #299
52.2% #225
-1.5 pt/100
19.5% #337
16.0% #222
-1.3 pt/100
29.0% #236
29.8% #151
-0.8 pt/100
28.1% #342
35.2% #184
-0.4 pt/100
68.4% #316
—
-0.4 pt/100
Brown net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersCanisiusoffense vsBrowndefense
Share of shots by zone
Canisius shoots
36.9
6.5
16.8
39.7
Brown allows
37.3
2.8
16.3
43.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.2%#365 | 55.7%#77 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.5%#10 | 40.5%#200 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.6%#298 | 45.8%#355 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#213 | 33.5%#157 | 33.7% |
Brownoffense vsCanisiusdefense
Share of shots by zone
Brown shoots
44.3
4.7
14.9
36.1
Canisius allows
38.6
4.0
14.1
43.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.9%#276 | 60.1%#229 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.5%#90 | 39.0%#158 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 34.7%#297 | 40.7%#266 | 38.0% |
| Three | 30.3%#338 | 33.0%#124 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersCanisius
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#313 of 365
Off reb %
29.3%
#226
Def reb %
70.2%
#151
Turnover %
19.6%
#341
Forced TO %
16.0%
#222
FT rate
31.4%
#271
FT allowed
35.2%
#184
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0
Brown
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#236
Def reb %
70.0%
#164
Turnover %
19.5%
#337
Forced TO %
18.7%
#62
FT rate
28.1%
#342
FT allowed
37.6%
#253
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−1.8
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Brown has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.1 (#308 of 365) to Canisius’s −3.4 (#313).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Canisius2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Preist Ryanat Cleveland St | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-24 | 22.3 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 45.8% | 30.0% | 0.6 | 69.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Vinny Sigonaat East Texas A&M | G | Sr | 6'0" | 28-6 | 20.0 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 57.8% | 40.1% | 5.6 | 87.5% | 22.9% | |
| 5 | Clinton Efindaat UNC Greensboro | F | Sr | 6'5" | 33-0 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 51.3% | 38.5% | 2.0 | 78.8% | 17.5% | |
| 33 | Michael Wilson Jr.at Bellarmine | G | Jr | 6'6" | 30-4 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 53.2% | 31.6% | 1.3 | 64.3% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Demarris Wintersat UT Rio Grande | G | So | 6'3" | 21-0 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.8% | 39.3% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 17.6% | |
| 7 | Nate Deerat Oakland | F | Sr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 15.9% | |
| 12 | Trevor Augustine | G | Jr | 6'2" | 8-0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 25.1% | |
| 15 | Nate Foutsat Le Moyne | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Will Fowlerat 124947 | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Abu Riak | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Alex Mack | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 95 | Dorsett Mulcahy | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jerry Guerrero | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Will Taylor | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Nate Deer (from Oakland), Clinton Efinda (from UNC Greensboro), Nate Fouts (from Le Moyne), Will Fowler (from 124947), Preist Ryan (from Cleveland St), Vinny Sigona (from East Texas A&M), Michael Wilson Jr. (from Bellarmine), Demarris Winters (from UT Rio Grande)
Brown2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jeremiah Jenkins | G | So | 6'0" | 27-27 | 30.1 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 44.6% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 75.5% | 22.2% | |
| 5 | Adrian Uchidiuno | G | Jr | 6'2" | 27-8 | 25.3 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42.1% | 26.2% | 5.4 | 81.3% | 27.4% | |
| 40 | Landon Lewis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 21-21 | 30.8 | 16.6 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 56.5% | 32.3% | |
| 45 | N'famara Dabo | F | Jr | 6'8" | 27-25 | 23.3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 56.3% | 16.7% | |
| 12 | Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson | G | Jr | 6'4" | 27-11 | 22.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 41.5% | 22.6% | 1.1 | 73.9% | 16.6% | |
| 1 | Isaiah Langham | G | Fr | 6'5" | 27-13 | 21.1 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 45.9% | 18.8% | 2.4 | 70.2% | 28.2% | |
| 23 | David Rochester | F | So | 6'8" | 22-7 | 22.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 44.2% | 28.6% | 1.3 | 72.5% | 19.8% | |
| 14 | Luke Paragon | G | Jr | 6'4" | 26-18 | 16.4 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 59.2% | 39.0% | 3.8 | 93.5% | 21.8% | |
| 33 | Charlie O'Sullivan | F | Fr | 6'10" | 20-0 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 60.4% | 37.3% | 2.5 | 71.4% | 21.7% | |
| 30 | Brady Loughlin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 12-1 | 18.2 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 59.2% | 38.8% | 4.1 | 70.0% | 21.0% | |
| 6 | Wyatt DeGraaf | F | So | 6'10" | 14-3 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 68.2% | — | 0.0 | 42.9% | 15.7% | |
| 32 | Drew Kania | F | Sr | 6'8" | 8-1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 30.8% | — | 0.0 | 71.4% | 24.9% | |
| 4 | Jonah Drezner | G | Fr | 6'3" | 5-0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 61.1% | 42.9% | 1.4 | — | 19.4% | |
| 11 | Jerrell Barron Jr. | G | So | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Canisius2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Preist Ryanat Cleveland St | F | Sr | 6'6" | 31-24 | 22.3 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 45.8% | 30.0% | 0.6 | 69.3% | 20.6% | |
| 1 | Vinny Sigonaat East Texas A&M | G | Sr | 6'0" | 28-6 | 20.0 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 57.8% | 40.1% | 5.6 | 87.5% | 22.9% | |
| 5 | Clinton Efindaat UNC Greensboro | F | Sr | 6'5" | 33-0 | 14.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 51.3% | 38.5% | 2.0 | 78.8% | 17.5% | |
| 33 | Michael Wilson Jr.at Bellarmine | G | Jr | 6'6" | 30-4 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 53.2% | 31.6% | 1.3 | 64.3% | 25.5% | |
| 2 | Demarris Wintersat UT Rio Grande | G | So | 6'3" | 21-0 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 61.8% | 39.3% | 1.3 | 60.0% | 17.6% | |
| 7 | Nate Deerat Oakland | F | Sr | 6'10" | 9-0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 15.9% | |
| 12 | Trevor Augustine | G | Jr | 6'2" | 8-0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 25.1% | |
| 15 | Nate Foutsat Le Moyne | F | Sr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Will Fowlerat 124947 | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Abu Riak | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Alex Mack | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 95 | Dorsett Mulcahy | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jerry Guerrero | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Will Taylor | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Nate Deer (from Oakland), Clinton Efinda (from UNC Greensboro), Nate Fouts (from Le Moyne), Will Fowler (from 124947), Preist Ryan (from Cleveland St), Vinny Sigona (from East Texas A&M), Michael Wilson Jr. (from Bellarmine), Demarris Winters (from UT Rio Grande)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Canisius
Against the spread
Season
14-15-1
Home
7-7
Road
7-8-1
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover +0.1
Covered 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
9-21
Home
6-8
Road
3-13
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −0.1
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 10 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Quinnipiac | H | L 63–67 | +8.0 | W+4.0 | 138.5 | U130 | 94.8 | 100.9 | 66.4 |
| Feb 27 | Merrimack | H | W 67–62 | +9.0 | W+14.0 | 130.0 | U129 | 110.3 | 102.1 | 60.7 |
| Feb 22 | Mount St Marys | A | L 47–68 | +7.5 | L−13.5 | 137.5 | U115 | 75.0 | 108.5 | 62.6 |
| Feb 20 | Rider | A | W 72–66 | +1.0 | W+7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 106.7 | 97.8 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Manhattan | H | L 65–69 | +1.5 | L−2.5 | 141.0 | U134 | 100.4 | 106.5 | 64.8 |
| Feb 13 | Iona | H | L 63–69 | +4.5 | L−1.5 | 138.0 | U132 | 98.0 | 107.3 | 64.3 |
| Feb 5 | Quinnipiac | A | L 60–75 | +15.0 | P0.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 81.8 | 102.2 | 73.3 |
| Feb 3 | Niagara | A | L 56–65 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 127.0 | U121 | 97.3 | 113.0 | 57.5 |
| Feb 1 | Siena | H | L 63–78 | +8.0 | L−7.0 | 135.0 | O141 | 105.7 | 130.9 | 59.6 |
| Jan 30 | Marist | H | L 86–88 OT | +9.5 | W+7.5 | 130.0 | O174 | 116.5 | 119.2 | 73.8 |
Brown
Against the spread
Season
13-12
Home
5-7
Road
8-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −3.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
12-13
Home
4-8
Road
8-5
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +1.3
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Penn | H | L 61–82 | −1.0 | L−22.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 84.9 | 114.2 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Cornell | A | L 80–86 | +9.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | O166 | 110.7 | 119.1 | 72.2 |
| Feb 27 | Columbia | A | L 62–80 | +5.5 | L−12.5 | 140.0 | O142 | 91.1 | 117.6 | 68.1 |
| Feb 20 | Princeton | H | W 80–71 | −3.0 | W+6.0 | 130.0 | O151 | 124.7 | 110.7 | 64.1 |
| Feb 14 | Dartmouth | A | W 79–76 | +3.0 | W+6.0 | 139.5 | O155 | 110.6 | 106.4 | 71.5 |
| Feb 13 | Harvard | A | L 53–56 | +8.0 | W+5.0 | 131.5 | U109 | 85.7 | 90.6 | 61.8 |
| Feb 6 | Yale | A | L 69–81 | +15.0 | W+3.0 | 139.0 | O150 | 105.7 | 124.1 | 65.3 |
| Jan 31 | Dartmouth | H | L 70–77 OT | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 143.0 | O147 | 93.7 | 103.1 | 74.7 |
| Jan 30 | Harvard | H | L 59–69 | +1.5 | L−8.5 | 133.0 | U128 | 96.8 | 113.3 | 60.9 |
| Jan 24 | Princeton | A | L 53–63 | +4.5 | L−5.5 | 133.5 | U116 | 83.1 | 98.7 | 63.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCanisiusBrown
Efficiency
99.6
101.4
111.8
107.4
66.2
67.9
—
—
Shooting
46.3%
48.6%
44.0%
50.4%
33.3%
30.3%
71.9%
68.4%
31.4%
28.1%
Ball control & glass
19.6%
19.5%
16.0%
18.7%
29.3%
29.0%
29.8%
30.0%
10.5%
11.3%
9.7%
9.4%
Style
39.5%
36.3%
39.3%
50.4%
11.6%
13.3%
55.4%
59.5%
27.8%
37.1%
Roster
3.69
2.49
6'4.2"
6'4.9"
0.2%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCanisius
Returning minutes: 0.2%Returning production: -0.0%
Lost
- Kahlil Singleton 33.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Bryan Ndjonga 32.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mike Evbagharu 32.2 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Myles Wilmoth 23.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Javante Edwards 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Kumu 11.2 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Preist Ryan from Cleveland St · 20.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
- Vinny Sigona from East Texas A&M · 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg last season
- Clinton Efinda from UNC Greensboro · 14.5 mpg, 4.3 ppg last season
- Michael Wilson Jr. from Bellarmine · 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg last season
- Demarris Winters from UT Rio Grande · 4.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
- Nate Deer from Oakland · 1.4 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Brown
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Brown's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.