CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceChesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD410 Invitational

Morgan St

Efficiency #349

2025-26: 14-16 · 10-5 conf

UMBC

Efficiency #147

2025-26: 24-9 · 17-2 conf

Thu, Nov 12 · 6:00 PM ET

68.5

win 11%

Projected

82.9

win 89%

No line posted yet.

Model: UMBC −14.3 · total 151.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UMBC 67.5, Morgan St 70.3 → 69.5 possessions

+2.5

UMBC offense vs Morgan St defense

+5.5

Morgan St offense vs UMBC defense

−4.8

Projected total

151.4

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UMBC offense vs Morgan St defense

+5.5

Morgan St offense vs UMBC defense

+4.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

UMBC by 14.3

14.3

Morgan St side ◂▸ UMBC side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UMBC.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Morgan St is the faster team (70.7, #64 of 365) and UMBC the slower (66.5, #267). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.4

model

Projected team totals

68.5 / 82.9

Morgan St / UMBC

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.3#31

Morgan St

67.5#252

UMBC

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMorgan St

Where Morgan St struggles: shooting

Morgan St shoots an effective 45.8% (#351); UMBC allows 49.4% (#79). Expect about 47.1%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageUMBC

Where UMBC scores: shooting

UMBC shoots an effective 54.1% (#64); Morgan St allows 51.7% (#194). Expect about 53.1%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversUMBC

UMBC protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for UMBC's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Morgan St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Morgan St at about 34.8% of its shots from three, UMBC about 34.0%.

ClashMorgan St

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

Morgan St (#22 in free-throw rate) against UMBC (#10 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.1%. Historically UMBC's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

ClashUMBC

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

UMBC (#55 in 3-point shooting) against Morgan St (#43 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.0%. Historically UMBC's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Morgan St has the ball

OffenseUMBC allowsvs D1 avg

45.8% #351

49.4% #79

-5.9 pt/100

17.8% #260

15.1% #285

+0.6 pt/100

30.7% #172

25.8% #18

-1.2 pt/100

42.7% #22

25.7% #10

-0.2 pt/100

74.3% #113

—

+0.2 pt/100

Morgan St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.6 pts/100

UMBC has the ball

OffenseMorgan St allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #64

51.7% #194

+2.6 pt/100

14.0% #25

16.5% #184

+2.1 pt/100

24.9% #342

35.2% #341

-0.9 pt/100

34.1% #205

50.9% #363

+1.1 pt/100

76.0% #54

—

+0.3 pt/100

UMBC net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Morgan Stoffense vsUMBCdefense

Share of shots by zone

Morgan St shoots

38.9

2.0

23.1

35.9

UMBC allows

43.1

5.3

14.3

37.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.0%#340	54.5%#50	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.1%#326	39.5%#175	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#289	36.5%#121	38.0%
Three	31.7%#295	32.7%#98	33.7%

UMBCoffense vsMorgan Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMBC shoots

36.8

7.5

16.4

39.3

Morgan St allows

48.0

4.8

15.6

31.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.8%#100	58.6%#168	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.8%#25	26.9%#5	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#171	44.9%#349	38.0%
Three	36.1%#55	31.5%#43	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Morgan St

−4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#335 of 365

Off reb %

30.7%

#172

Def reb %

64.8%

#341

Turnover %

17.8%

#260

Forced TO %

16.5%

#184

FT rate

42.7%

#22

FT allowed

50.9%

#363

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security−0.7

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.0

Foul shots allowed−4.0

UMBC

+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#64 of 365

Off reb %

24.9%

#342

Def reb %

74.2%

#18

Turnover %

14.0%

#25

Forced TO %

15.1%

#285

FT rate

34.1%

#205

FT allowed

25.7%

#10

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.8

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+2.4

UMBC has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#64 of 365) to Morgan St’s −4.3 (#335).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Morgan St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Lawson	G	Sr	5'11"	30-22	32.8	12.8	3.6	4.0	2.5	41.8%	29.3%	4.4	81.7%	27.0%
2	Elijah Davis	G	Sr	6'1"	26-26	34.9	13.8	3.3	5.9	2.6	45.9%	21.7%	0.9	72.5%	25.5%
0	Christian Meeks	G	Jr	6'6"	30-27	28.6	5.9	5.8	0.8	1.0	56.1%	22.2%	0.3	62.0%	11.9%
1	Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	28.5	17.4	3.8	1.1	2.0	49.5%	36.3%	7.4	88.5%	34.0%
55	Eugene Alvin	F	Jr	6'7"	29-14	19.3	7.3	3.6	0.4	0.8	53.7%	38.4%	2.5	60.3%	21.5%
52	Walter Peggs Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	28-6	19.3	8.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	50.7%	36.7%	4.6	81.6%	25.3%
21	Christian Oliver	C	Sr	6'10"	26-9	14.3	4.3	3.0	0.4	0.5	57.3%	22.2%	0.3	67.9%	16.6%
7	Marland Harris	F	Sr	6'9"	20-6	12.9	3.9	3.8	0.3	0.8	54.7%	—	0.0	69.0%	17.3%
4	David Bumpass	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	9.1	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	40.6%	16.7%	1.1	59.4%	24.4%
22	Manok Lual	F	Jr	6'9"	20-4	7.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	50.0%	20.0%	0.3	47.4%	16.6%
42	Dallas James	C	Sr	7'1"	21-9	6.4	1.6	1.5	0.0	1.2	50.0%	—	0.0	72.7%	23.4%
5	Matar Wade	F	So	6'8"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.8	0.2	0.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	11.3%
10	Breon Barnett	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	3.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	11.1%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.9%
13	Trent Edwards	F	Jr	6'8"	2-1	17.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	33.3%	17.0%
32	Jayden Socka	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	2.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	20.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMBC2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ace Valentine	G	Jr	6'3"	32-32	32.7	11.9	4.1	3.9	1.3	58.6%	38.1%	3.5	77.0%	20.2%
4	Jah'Likai King	G	Jr	6'2"	32-32	32.2	14.0	3.3	1.5	1.4	48.3%	32.2%	4.7	82.5%	27.1%
11	Caden Diggs	F	So	6'8"	32-2	22.8	10.0	3.8	0.9	1.3	53.4%	35.6%	2.3	75.8%	26.7%
2	Josh Odunowo	F	Sr	6'6"	30-28	23.0	8.4	5.2	0.9	1.0	53.2%	—	0.0	73.7%	21.6%
14	Jose Roberto Tanchyn	F	Jr	6'10"	32-17	19.2	6.5	5.7	0.8	0.8	55.7%	35.7%	2.2	64.9%	20.5%
23	Riley Jacobs	F	Fr	6'8"	32-16	15.5	4.3	3.8	0.7	0.8	48.6%	0.0%	0.4	55.9%	19.4%
21	Cougar Downing	G	Sr	6'2"	31-0	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	55.7%	37.8%	2.4	81.3%	17.3%
5	Daylon Dickerson	F	Jr	6'6"	21-4	14.0	5.6	3.3	1.3	1.0	59.4%	25.0%	0.4	74.5%	22.1%
10	Paul Greene	F	Sr	6'6"	20-1	7.4	1.9	2.3	0.2	0.6	45.5%	—	0.0	60.0%	20.6%
7	Tim Eze	F	So	6'7"	15-0	5.6	1.8	1.1	0.1	0.3	45.8%	0.0%	0.3	62.5%	22.1%
12	Jake Stout	F	So	6'7"	10-0	3.5	1.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	50.0%	25.0%	0.8	100.0%	21.7%
13	Devin Ceaser	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	7.7	4.3	1.0	0.3	1.7	54.2%	37.5%	2.7	—	42.3%
30	Saahil Thakkar	G	Fr	6'1"	5-0	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.2	37.5%	25.0%	0.8	—	27.6%
0	Regimantas Ciunys	F	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Morgan St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Rob Lawson	G	Sr	5'11"	30-22	32.8	12.8	3.6	4.0	2.5	41.8%	29.3%	4.4	81.7%	27.0%
2	Elijah Davis	G	Sr	6'1"	26-26	34.9	13.8	3.3	5.9	2.6	45.9%	21.7%	0.9	72.5%	25.5%
0	Christian Meeks	G	Jr	6'6"	30-27	28.6	5.9	5.8	0.8	1.0	56.1%	22.2%	0.3	62.0%	11.9%
1	Alfred Worrell Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	30-26	28.5	17.4	3.8	1.1	2.0	49.5%	36.3%	7.4	88.5%	34.0%
55	Eugene Alvin	F	Jr	6'7"	29-14	19.3	7.3	3.6	0.4	0.8	53.7%	38.4%	2.5	60.3%	21.5%
52	Walter Peggs Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	28-6	19.3	8.8	2.0	0.7	0.7	50.7%	36.7%	4.6	81.6%	25.3%
21	Christian Oliver	C	Sr	6'10"	26-9	14.3	4.3	3.0	0.4	0.5	57.3%	22.2%	0.3	67.9%	16.6%
7	Marland Harris	F	Sr	6'9"	20-6	12.9	3.9	3.8	0.3	0.8	54.7%	—	0.0	69.0%	17.3%
4	David Bumpass	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	9.1	3.2	1.0	0.2	0.4	40.6%	16.7%	1.1	59.4%	24.4%
22	Manok Lual	F	Jr	6'9"	20-4	7.7	1.8	0.8	0.1	0.5	50.0%	20.0%	0.3	47.4%	16.6%
42	Dallas James	C	Sr	7'1"	21-9	6.4	1.6	1.5	0.0	1.2	50.0%	—	0.0	72.7%	23.4%
5	Matar Wade	F	So	6'8"	13-0	8.2	0.9	1.8	0.2	0.7	45.5%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	11.3%
10	Breon Barnett	G	Fr	6'1"	13-0	3.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	11.1%	0.0%	0.2	100.0%	15.9%
13	Trent Edwards	F	Jr	6'8"	2-1	17.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	33.3%	17.0%
32	Jayden Socka	F	Sr	6'9"	6-0	2.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	33.3%	—	0.0	33.3%	20.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Morgan St

Against the spread

Season

15-12

Home

8-4

Road

7-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.4

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-11

Home

6-6

Road

9-5

Last 10

8-2

avg vs total +4.7

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Delaware StAdjEM #358	N	L 70–75 OT	−3.0	L−8.0	143.0	O145	93.1	99.8	75.2
Mar 5	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 70–66	−6.5	L−2.5	150.5	U136	101.7	95.9	68.8
Mar 2	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	W 90–84	+3.5	W+9.5	157.0	O174	119.4	111.4	75.4
Feb 28	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 59–84	+9.5	L−15.5	158.0	U143	81.9	116.6	72.0
Feb 25	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 90–83	−1.5	W+5.5	154.5	O173	123.4	113.8	73.0
Feb 21	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 82–68	−5.5	W+8.5	145.0	O150	111.8	92.7	73.4
Feb 16	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	L 76–80	+5.5	W+1.5	148.0	O156	104.3	109.7	72.9
Feb 7	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–71	+1.5	W+9.5	141.0	O150	118.0	106.1	66.9
Jan 31	Coppin StAdjEM #364	A	W 89–80	−2.5	W+6.5	155.5	O169	117.4	105.5	75.8
Jan 26	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 79–78	+8.0	W+9.0	153.5	O157	103.8	102.5	76.1

UMBC

Against the spread

Season

18-12-1

Home

8-6-1

Road

10-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +11.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 7 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-16

Home

7-8

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.3

Over in the last gameOver in 5 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	#16HowardAdjEM #160	N	L 83–86	−1.0	L−4.0	142.5	O169	119.2	123.5	69.6
Mar 14	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 74–59	−1.5	W+13.5	134.5	U133	115.5	92.1	64.0
Mar 10	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 91–69	−7.0	W+15.0	148.0	O160	134.1	101.7	67.8
Mar 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 84–69	−13.0	W+2.0	142.0	O153	129.1	106.0	65.1
Mar 3	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 91–52	−5.0	W+34.0	142.5	O143	129.9	74.2	70.1
Feb 28	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	W 84–60	−2.0	W+22.0	151.5	U144	128.4	91.7	65.4
Feb 26	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 70–58	−10.0	W+2.0	138.0	U128	110.7	91.7	63.3
Feb 21	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 66–62	−6.0	L−2.0	145.0	U128	110.9	104.1	59.5
Feb 19	VermontAdjEM #199	H	W 75–62	+2.0	W+15.0	142.0	U137	111.4	92.1	67.3
Feb 14	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	W 85–63	−2.0	W+20.0	144.0	O148	123.6	91.6	68.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Morgan StUMBC

Efficiency

102.0

109.3

115.6

108.0

70.3

67.5

—

Shooting

45.8%

54.1%

44.9%

54.1%

31.7%

36.1%

74.3%

76.0%

42.7%

34.1%

Ball control & glass

17.8%

14.0%

16.5%

15.1%

30.7%

24.9%

35.2%

25.8%

9.4%

7.8%

10.4%

6.4%

Style

35.2%

38.8%

37.2%

44.0%

18.3%

12.7%

52.2%

44.8%

32.6%

29.7%

Roster

3.58

2.89

6'4.3"

6'5.3"

—

83.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Morgan St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Morgan St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UMBC

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 82.9%

Lost

DJ Armstrong Jr. 32.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Regimantas Ciunys no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	UMBC 81 – 79 Morgan St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.