CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBurr Gymnasium, Washington, DC

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

Howard

Efficiency #160

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-3 conf

Thu, Nov 12 · TBD

68.8

win 17%

Projected

79.8

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: HOW −11.0 · total 148.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Howard 69.3, Stetson 67.9 → 68.9 possessions

+1.3

Howard offense vs Stetson defense

+3.1

Stetson offense vs Howard defense

−4.0

Projected total

148.6

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Howard offense vs Stetson defense

+3.1

Stetson offense vs Howard defense

+4.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Howard by 11.0

11.0

Stetson side ◂▸ Howard side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.1 against +11.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Howard.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Howard is the faster team (69.2, #131 of 365) and Stetson the slower (67.9, #208). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.6

model

Projected team totals

68.8 / 79.8

Stetson / Howard

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

69.3#100

Howard

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson struggles: ball control

Stetson turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#277); Howard forces turnovers on 20.7% of opponent possessions (#13). Expect about 20.1%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageHoward

Where Howard scores: the offensive glass

Howard rebounds 35.8% of its own misses (#28); Stetson lets opponents grab 31.8% of their own misses (#250). Expect about 34.9%, 4.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseHoward

Howard's ball-hawking

Howard ranks #27 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.8% of Stetson's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Howard's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Stetson at about 40.4% of its shots from three, Howard about 36.7%.

ClashStetson

Style clash: ball movement

Stetson assists on 58.5% of its made baskets; Howard breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 53.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashStetson

Style clash: 3-point volume

Stetson takes 44.7% of its shots from three; Howard runs teams off the line (34.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.4% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

Stetson has the ball

OffenseHoward allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

48.7% #53

-0.3 pt/100

18.1% #277

20.7% #13

-4.1 pt/100

26.6% #308

31.4% #223

-1.3 pt/100

32.4% #250

38.4% #270

+0.1 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100

Howard has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #198

55.2% #338

+2.6 pt/100

19.3% #331

15.1% #271

-0.5 pt/100

35.8% #28

31.8% #250

+2.7 pt/100

43.4% #17

30.4% #71

+0.2 pt/100

74.0% #130

—

+0.1 pt/100

Howard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.1 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsHowarddefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

Howard allows

42.9

7.2

15.7

34.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	56.1%#88	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	35.8%#85	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	31.5%#13	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	31.4%#41	33.7%

Howardoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

Howard shoots

47.9

4.2

12.8

35.0

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	52.7%#345	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.8%#334	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#160	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	35.8%#68	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Howard

+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#39 of 365

Off reb %

35.8%

#28

Def reb %

68.6%

#223

Turnover %

19.3%

#331

Forced TO %

20.7%

#13

FT rate

43.4%

#17

FT allowed

38.4%

#270

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.3

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers+2.8

Foul shots drawn+2.2

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Howard has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#39 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Howard2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Cam Gillus	G	Jr	5'11"	35-35	32.7	10.8	4.3	4.7	2.3	53.7%	39.5%	3.5	75.6%	20.3%
11	Ose Okojie	G	Sr	6'5"	35-32	25.9	10.7	3.8	1.7	1.2	58.6%	42.9%	1.0	62.0%	22.5%
4	Alex Cotton	G	Jr	6'5"	32-24	26.9	8.5	3.1	1.2	0.8	50.8%	37.1%	6.1	67.6%	18.8%
12	Cedric Taylor III	G	Jr	6'7"	24-23	32.4	17.2	6.7	3.1	2.8	50.0%	29.8%	3.9	81.2%	32.2%
32	Travelle Bryson	F	So	6'5"	31-10	18.7	8.8	3.4	0.9	0.7	50.9%	24.6%	2.2	81.6%	27.3%
13	Danas Kazakevicius	C	Fr	6'10"	34-14	14.5	3.7	2.4	1.0	1.0	48.0%	25.0%	0.1	79.5%	17.7%
0	Isaiah Brown	G	So	6'1"	33-0	10.2	2.6	1.1	1.4	1.0	41.1%	43.8%	0.5	76.6%	20.2%
23	Ed Holland III	G	Sr	6'6"	25-2	9.2	1.8	1.9	0.4	0.4	45.3%	25.0%	0.2	68.0%	13.3%
21	Calvin Robins Jr.	F	So	6'5"	32-0	6.0	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4	63.6%	—	0.0	40.0%	15.6%
10	Jeremiah Johnson	G	Fr	6'3"	20-0	7.3	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	34.7%	26.3%	0.9	42.9%	16.0%
3	BJ Powell	G	Fr	6'0"	21-0	4.3	1.7	0.2	0.3	0.3	48.3%	40.0%	0.2	53.8%	25.3%
7	Julian Johnson	F	Fr	6'9"	14-0	4.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.2	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	20.2%
1	Stefan Isailovic	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	2.8	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.2	40.0%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	17.4%
9	River Smith	G	Fr	5'10"	11-0	2.2	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	25.0%	18.1%
5	Shane Frazier	G	Fr	6'5"	10-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	50.0%	22.7%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

Howard

Against the spread

Season

23-8

Home

8-3

Road

9-4

Last 10

9-1

avg cover +8.6

Covered 2 straightCovered 7 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 6 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

6-5

Road

5-8

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +9.8

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#1MichiganAdjEM #1	N	L 80–101	+31.0	W+10.0	151.5	O181	112.2	141.7	71.3
Mar 17	#16UMBCAdjEM #147	N	W 86–83	+1.0	W+4.0	142.5	O169	123.5	119.2	69.6
Mar 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	N	W 70–63	−11.5	L−4.5	143.5	U133	112.4	101.2	62.3
Mar 13	SC StateAdjEM #357	N	W 78–61	−15.5	W+1.5	146.0	U139	105.9	82.8	73.6
Mar 5	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	W 84–76	−6.5	W+1.5	148.5	O160	121.4	109.8	69.2
Mar 2	Coppin StAdjEM #364	H	W 90–70	−18.5	W+1.5	140.0	O160	127.2	98.9	70.8
Feb 28	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	W 84–59	−9.5	W+15.5	158.0	U143	116.6	81.9	72.0
Feb 21	NC CentralAdjEM #346	H	W 100–67	−12.5	W+20.5	143.0	O167	140.3	94.0	71.3
Feb 16	Delaware StAdjEM #358	A	W 91–59	−11.0	W+21.0	130.5	O150	126.6	82.1	71.9
Feb 14	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 79–53	−11.0	W+15.0	133.0	U132	122.8	82.4	64.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonHoward

Efficiency

105.1

106.9

114.4

106.1

67.9

69.3

—

Shooting

53.1%

50.9%

52.5%

49.4%

36.0%

35.8%

69.2%

74.0%

32.4%

43.4%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

19.3%

15.1%

20.7%

26.6%

35.8%

31.8%

31.4%

11.5%

8.4%

7.7%

11.2%

Style

44.7%

34.7%

40.0%

41.5%

12.2%

16.4%

58.5%

60.3%

32.8%

26.1%

Roster

2.80

2.71

6'4.7"

6'4.2"

—

83.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Howard

Returning minutes: 83.9%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Bryce Harris 32.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Wed, Nov 19	2025-26	Howard 60 – 64 Stetson

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.