CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMarriott Center, Provo, UT
Montana St
Efficiency #130
2025-26: 18-14 · 12-7 conf
@
BYU
Efficiency #26
2025-26: 23-12 · 11-10 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · TBD
70.9
win 15%
Projected
82.8
win 85%
No line posted yet.
Model: BYU −11.9 · total 153.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: BYU 69.9, Montana St 67.4 → 68.9 possessions
+1.3
BYU offense vs Montana St defense
+6.0
Montana St offense vs BYU defense
−1.9
Projected total
153.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
BYU offense vs Montana St defense
+6.0
Montana St offense vs BYU defense
+1.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
BYU by 11.9
11.9
Montana St side ◂▸ BYU side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help BYU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, BYU is the faster team (70.4, #80 of 365) and Montana St the slower (67.4, #229). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.6
model
Projected team totals
70.9 / 82.8
Montana St / BYU
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#264
Montana St
69.9#57
BYU
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetClashBYU
Style match: ball movement
BYU creates off the dribble (assists on 45.0% of its baskets); Montana St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 43.2% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 41.7% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageBYU
Where BYU scores: shooting
BYU shoots an effective 54.4% (#54); Montana St allows 51.7% (#193). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversBYU
BYU protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for BYU's offense.
AdvantageMontana St
Where Montana St scores: shooting
Montana St shoots an effective 53.6% (#80); BYU allows 51.2% (#174). Expect about 52.6%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversMontana St
Montana St protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.4% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for Montana St's offense.
GlassMontana St
Montana St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.7% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Montana St's offense.
Montana St has the ball
OffenseBYU allowsvs D1 avg
53.6% #80
51.2% #174
+1.9 pt/100
14.7% #53
16.4% #196
+1.7 pt/100
27.0% #292
29.6% #145
-1.7 pt/100
30.2% #303
28.9% #42
-0.7 pt/100
74.0% #132
—
+0.1 pt/100
Montana St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.4 pts/100
BYU has the ball
OffenseMontana St allowsvs D1 avg
54.4% #54
51.7% #193
+2.9 pt/100
15.2% #80
15.7% #238
+1.9 pt/100
34.3% #61
28.2% #75
+1.0 pt/100
34.4% #198
29.6% #52
-0.4 pt/100
74.7% #94
—
+0.2 pt/100
BYU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.6 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMontana Stoffense vsBYUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Montana St shoots
31.3
7.0
17.2
44.4
BYU allows
30.4
12.2
18.0
39.3
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.7%#134 | 61.2%#274 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.4%#137 | 35.4%#70 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.3%#12 | 41.0%#276 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#52 | 35.3%#269 | 33.7% |
BYUoffense vsMontana Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
BYU shoots
32.8
12.1
16.0
39.1
Montana St allows
47.2
5.1
13.8
33.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.4%#17 | 54.6%#54 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 40.5%#164 | 49.4%#352 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.0%#26 | 41.2%#279 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.5%#145 | 34.3%#198 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMontana St
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#154 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#292
Def reb %
71.8%
#75
Turnover %
14.7%
#53
Forced TO %
15.7%
#238
FT rate
30.2%
#303
FT allowed
29.6%
#52
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.4
BYU
+3.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#38 of 365
Off reb %
34.3%
#61
Def reb %
70.4%
#145
Turnover %
15.2%
#80
Forced TO %
16.4%
#196
FT rate
34.4%
#198
FT allowed
28.9%
#42
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.6
BYU has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.9 (#38 of 365) to Montana St’s +0.6 (#154).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Montana St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Montana St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jed Miller | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 34.5 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 59.4% | 40.6% | 6.8 | 80.0% | 22.7% | |
| 1 | Patrick McMahon | G | Sr | 6'7" | 29-29 | 29.2 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 48.1% | 25.5% | 1.9 | 71.5% | 29.4% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Davis | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-24 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 60.2% | 40.0% | 2.7 | 76.7% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | Christian King | F | So | 6'8" | 28-19 | 27.3 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 50.2% | 36.4% | 5.5 | 80.6% | 28.9% | |
| 21 | Chris Hodges | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 23.3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 57.7% | — | 0.0 | 48.2% | 15.5% | |
| 0 | Davian Brown | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-14 | 25.0 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 59.8% | 43.0% | 5.8 | 83.7% | 26.9% | |
| 12 | Seth Amunrud | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-2 | 21.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 57.7% | 40.0% | 3.3 | 100.0% | 18.2% | |
| 44 | Jaden Steppe | F | So | 6'8" | 32-0 | 15.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 59.6% | 31.0% | 1.3 | 59.4% | 21.7% | |
| 2 | Howie Keene | G | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 44.0% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 13.3% | |
| 4 | Cavin Holden | G | Jr | 6'2" | 8-8 | 25.9 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 48.4% | 31.0% | 5.3 | 80.0% | 20.8% | |
| 35 | Waka Mbatch | F | So | 6'10" | 11-0 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 58.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 76.2% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Calum Rutherfurd | F | So | 6'11" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 19.1% | |
| 15 | Grayson Gaddis | F | Fr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 38.9% | 14.3% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 42.2% | |
| 3 | CJ Purdie | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | James Steward | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
BYU2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Wright III | G | So | 6'1" | 35-35 | 34.9 | 18.1 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 52.6% | 41.0% | 4.0 | 82.1% | 29.6% | |
| 7 | Khadim Mboup | F | Fr | 6'9" | 34-2 | 15.6 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 50.7% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 23.1% | 11.6% | |
| 5 | Mihailo Boskovic | F | Sr | 6'10" | 34-5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 28.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 16.1% | |
| 6 | Aleksej Kostic | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-5 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 52.4% | 36.7% | 3.3 | 87.5% | 22.5% | |
| 2 | Tyler Mrus | F | Jr | 6'7" | 26-0 | 10.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 45.8% | 29.8% | 1.8 | 90.9% | 12.7% | |
| 34 | Abdullah Ahmed | C | So | 6'10" | 20-1 | 12.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 41.7% | 8.3% | |
| 24 | Dominique Diomande | F | Fr | 6'7" | 23-0 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 48.6% | 12.5% | 0.7 | 62.5% | 15.8% | |
| 25 | Dawson Baker | G | Sr | 6'4" | 6-2 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 59.7% | 47.4% | 3.2 | 88.9% | 19.2% | |
| 33 | Xavion Staton | C | Fr | 6'11" | 9-0 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 7.4% | |
| 51 | Jared McGregor | G | Sr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 42.4% | |
| 4 | Brody Kozlowski | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| — | KJ Perry | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Nate Pickens | G | Sr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Montana St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Montana St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jed Miller | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 34.5 | 14.9 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 59.4% | 40.6% | 6.8 | 80.0% | 22.7% | |
| 1 | Patrick McMahon | G | Sr | 6'7" | 29-29 | 29.2 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 48.1% | 25.5% | 1.9 | 71.5% | 29.4% | |
| 5 | Jeremiah Davis | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-24 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 60.2% | 40.0% | 2.7 | 76.7% | 20.1% | |
| 7 | Christian King | F | So | 6'8" | 28-19 | 27.3 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 50.2% | 36.4% | 5.5 | 80.6% | 28.9% | |
| 21 | Chris Hodges | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 23.3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 57.7% | — | 0.0 | 48.2% | 15.5% | |
| 0 | Davian Brown | G | Sr | 6'3" | 21-14 | 25.0 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 59.8% | 43.0% | 5.8 | 83.7% | 26.9% | |
| 12 | Seth Amunrud | G | Jr | 6'3" | 24-2 | 21.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 57.7% | 40.0% | 3.3 | 100.0% | 18.2% | |
| 44 | Jaden Steppe | F | So | 6'8" | 32-0 | 15.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 59.6% | 31.0% | 1.3 | 59.4% | 21.7% | |
| 2 | Howie Keene | G | Fr | 6'7" | 24-0 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 44.0% | 27.1% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 13.3% | |
| 4 | Cavin Holden | G | Jr | 6'2" | 8-8 | 25.9 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 48.4% | 31.0% | 5.3 | 80.0% | 20.8% | |
| 35 | Waka Mbatch | F | So | 6'10" | 11-0 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 58.1% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 76.2% | 21.9% | |
| 22 | Calum Rutherfurd | F | So | 6'11" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 19.1% | |
| 15 | Grayson Gaddis | F | Fr | 6'7" | 5-0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 38.9% | 14.3% | 1.4 | 100.0% | 42.2% | |
| 3 | CJ Purdie | G | Fr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | James Steward | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Montana St
Against the spread
Season
16-12-1
Home
7-4
Road
9-7-1
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +1.4
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-13
Home
6-5
Road
9-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.1
Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Idaho | N | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 143.0 | O152 | 109.8 | 115.7 | 67.4 |
| Mar 2 | N Arizona | A | W 76–65 | −6.0 | W+5.0 | 143.5 | U141 | 124.6 | 106.6 | 61.0 |
| Feb 28 | Sacramento St | H | W 82–61 | −7.0 | W+14.0 | 158.5 | U143 | 123.5 | 91.9 | 66.4 |
| Feb 26 | Portland St | H | W 84–69 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 140.5 | O153 | 119.3 | 98.0 | 70.4 |
| Feb 21 | Idaho St | A | L 76–91 | −2.5 | L−17.5 | 144.5 | O167 | 104.9 | 125.6 | 72.5 |
| Feb 19 | Weber St | A | L 79–82 OT | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 148.0 | O161 | 108.5 | 112.7 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | Montana | A | W 82–71 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 146.0 | O153 | 124.2 | 107.5 | 66.0 |
| Feb 7 | E Washington | H | L 71–72 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 109.5 | 111.0 | 64.9 |
| Feb 5 | Idaho | H | W 73–66 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 147.0 | U139 | 100.3 | 90.7 | 72.8 |
| Jan 31 | Portland St | A | L 54–63 | +4.0 | L−5.0 | 139.0 | U117 | 87.9 | 102.5 | 61.4 |
BYU
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
8-9
Road
3-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover −2.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
9-8
Road
6-3
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −0.9
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11Texas | N | L 71–79 | −2.5 | L−10.5 | 158.0 | U150 | 106.0 | 118.0 | 67.0 |
| Mar 12 | #5Houston | N | L 66–73 | +9.5 | W+2.5 | 148.0 | U139 | 95.3 | 105.4 | 69.3 |
| Mar 11 | West Virginia | N | W 68–48 | −3.5 | W+16.5 | 141.0 | U116 | 108.5 | 76.6 | 62.6 |
| Mar 10 | Kansas St | N | W 105–91 | −11.0 | W+3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 135.0 | 117.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #10Texas Tech | H | W 82–76 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U158 | 134.6 | 124.8 | 60.9 |
| Mar 3 | Cincinnati | A | L 68–90 | +1.5 | L−20.5 | 152.5 | O158 | 94.8 | 125.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | West Virginia | A | L 71–79 | −2.0 | L−10.0 | 141.0 | O150 | 112.3 | 124.9 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | UCF | H | L 84–97 | −13.5 | L−26.5 | 161.5 | O181 | 108.3 | 125.0 | 77.6 |
| Feb 21 | #6Iowa State | H | W 79–69 | +3.0 | W+13.0 | 155.0 | U148 | 118.3 | 103.4 | 66.8 |
| Feb 18 | #4Arizona | A | L 68–75 | +11.0 | W+4.0 | 163.5 | U143 | 102.8 | 113.4 | 66.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMontana StBYU
Efficiency
109.7
118.2
107.5
104.5
67.4
69.9
—
—
Shooting
53.6%
54.4%
53.1%
56.2%
36.1%
34.5%
74.0%
74.7%
30.2%
34.4%
Ball control & glass
14.7%
15.2%
15.7%
16.4%
27.0%
34.3%
28.2%
29.6%
7.9%
8.9%
7.5%
8.1%
Style
44.7%
39.8%
37.6%
45.4%
12.1%
15.6%
39.9%
45.0%
29.5%
26.2%
Roster
3.18
2.08
6'5.5"
6'5.3"
—
47.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMontana St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Montana St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
BYU
Returning minutes: 47.4%Returning production: 37.8%
Lost
- AJ Dybantsa 34.8 mpg, 25.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kennard Davis Jr. 27.0 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Richie Saunders 22.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keba Keita 21.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Brody Kozlowski no D1 minutes last season
- KJ Perry no D1 minutes last season
- Nate Pickens no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 47% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.