CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceBanterra Center, Carbondale, IL

Richmond

Efficiency #150

2025-26: 15-17 · 5-14 conf

S Illinois

Efficiency #107

2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf

Thu, Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ET

70.2

win 32%

Projected

75.7

win 68%

No line posted yet.

Model: SIU −5.5 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, Richmond 68.5 → 69.5 possessions

+2.6

S Illinois offense vs Richmond defense

−1.8

Richmond offense vs S Illinois defense

−3.2

Projected total

145.9

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

S Illinois offense vs Richmond defense

−1.8

Richmond offense vs S Illinois defense

+3.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

S Illinois by 5.5

5.5

Richmond side ◂▸ S Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 145.8 against a projected 145.9, and the margin steps add to +5.4 against +5.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and Richmond the slower (68.5, #172). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.9

model

Projected team totals

70.2 / 75.7

Richmond / S Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#169

Richmond

69.4#91

S Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageRichmond

Where Richmond struggles: the offensive glass

Richmond rebounds 25.0% of its own misses (#340); S Illinois lets opponents grab 27.3% of their own misses (#44). Expect about 25.1%, 5.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, Richmond, S Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Richmond at about 43.3% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 35.2%.

ClashS Illinois

Style clash: 3-point volume

S Illinois rarely shoots threes (29.2% of its shots); Richmond lets opponents take 45.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 35.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashRichmond

Strength vs strength: live-ball turnovers

Richmond (#30 in live-ball turnovers) against S Illinois (#49 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 10.0%. Historically S Illinois's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.40 vs 0.65).

ClashRichmond

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Richmond (#28 in 3-point shooting) against S Illinois (#17 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.0%. Historically Richmond's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Richmond has the ball

OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #115

49.0% #70

-0.5 pt/100

14.3% #33

18.5% #75

+0.4 pt/100

25.0% #340

27.3% #44

-3.2 pt/100

36.9% #133

31.4% #95

-0.2 pt/100

75.2% #76

—

+0.2 pt/100

Richmond net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.2 pts/100

S Illinois has the ball

OffenseRichmond allowsvs D1 avg

49.2% #286

52.0% #216

-1.2 pt/100

17.0% #207

17.7% #110

-0.9 pt/100

30.9% #167

31.0% #200

+0.4 pt/100

31.3% #275

35.1% #181

-0.2 pt/100

68.3% #321

—

-0.4 pt/100

S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Richmondoffense vsS Illinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Richmond shoots

29.1

5.8

22.7

42.5

S Illinois allows

35.9

6.1

16.5

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.1%#116	58.1%#148	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.6%#230	36.2%#93	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.7%#87	42.4%#315	38.0%
Three	37.1%#28	30.4%#17	33.7%

S Illinoisoffense vsRichmonddefense

Share of shots by zone

S Illinois shoots

40.7

7.4

23.0

28.9

Richmond allows

33.3

7.3

14.2

45.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.7%#169	64.5%#345	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.9%#81	39.5%#172	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#57	39.8%#236	38.0%
Three	27.8%#363	32.7%#103	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Richmond

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#135 of 365

Off reb %

25.0%

#340

Def reb %

69.0%

#200

Turnover %

14.3%

#33

Forced TO %

17.7%

#110

FT rate

36.9%

#133

FT allowed

35.1%

#181

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.7

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed0.0

S Illinois

+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365

Off reb %

30.9%

#167

Def reb %

72.7%

#44

Turnover %

17.0%

#207

Forced TO %

18.5%

#75

FT rate

31.3%

#275

FT allowed

31.4%

#95

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.1

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.0

S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to Richmond’s +1.0 (#135).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Richmond2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	AJ Lopez	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	25.8	13.4	2.2	1.3	0.9	54.1%	39.4%	3.3	86.2%	26.7%
3	Aiden Argabright	G	Fr	5'11"	31-3	23.5	10.8	2.0	2.0	0.8	49.2%	35.0%	2.6	82.9%	24.3%
21	Mike Walz	C	Sr	6'11"	32-32	21.2	7.9	6.4	2.3	1.5	55.9%	38.5%	2.4	75.6%	22.8%
5	Collin Tanner	G	Jr	6'6"	29-22	18.6	5.9	3.2	0.8	0.6	50.7%	29.2%	2.2	75.0%	19.4%
2	Jaden Daughtry	F	Jr	6'7"	31-4	15.7	8.9	3.0	0.6	1.4	57.8%	45.3%	1.7	59.7%	33.5%
12	David Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	31-7	14.1	4.2	1.1	0.5	0.5	55.4%	42.1%	1.8	87.5%	17.3%
33	Apostolos Roumoglou	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	15.4	2.9	3.3	1.1	0.4	43.0%	22.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Jonathan Beagle	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	14.9	6.0	4.6	1.5	1.0	54.3%	0.0%	0.1	61.1%	24.1%
11	Will Harper III	G	Fr	6'4"	13-0	11.2	3.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	39.7%	29.4%	1.3	84.2%	22.7%
35	Bryson McGlothin	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	4.3	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	27.1%
15	Kirby Mooney	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	27.6%
8	Donovan Richardson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Dylan Homenick	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Quel'Ron House	G	So	6'0"	30-28	30.1	15.2	3.4	3.3	2.3	48.3%	25.5%	1.8	75.0%	32.3%
10	Damien Mayo Jr.	G	Sr	6'3"	31-25	25.4	9.1	2.9	2.3	1.3	53.5%	37.1%	3.1	78.4%	21.1%
0	Rolyns Aligbe	F	So	6'9"	32-32	24.4	9.5	7.4	0.7	1.2	51.6%	34.8%	2.2	66.2%	23.4%
5	Jalen Haynes	G	Fr	6'4"	32-7	20.8	7.9	2.4	2.1	1.4	46.3%	20.5%	2.4	78.2%	24.9%
8	Prince Aligbe	F	Sr	6'7"	30-29	22.1	7.2	5.3	0.7	1.5	44.5%	0.0%	0.6	56.1%	23.8%
4	Davion Sykes	G	Sr	6'6"	32-3	19.0	7.1	4.4	0.8	1.0	52.2%	0.0%	0.3	71.4%	22.5%
9	Isaiah Stafford	G	Sr	6'2"	16-4	19.1	7.3	2.6	0.9	0.9	43.4%	20.4%	3.1	75.8%	25.0%
35	Max Pikaar	F	So	7'0"	27-0	10.8	1.9	2.1	0.3	0.5	41.5%	25.9%	1.0	61.1%	13.4%
25	Jorge Moreno	F	Sr	6'11"	25-0	10.8	2.8	3.0	0.5	0.8	64.4%	—	0.0	41.9%	16.5%
33	Jaheem Webber	C	Fr	6'10"	19-0	7.0	1.4	1.7	0.3	0.2	63.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	11.7%
3	Caden Hawkins	G	Jr	6'0"	15-0	5.3	1.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	50.0%	36.4%	0.7	44.4%	16.1%
7	Daniel Pauliukonis	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Luke Walsh	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Richmond2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
6	AJ Lopez	G	Sr	6'5"	32-32	25.8	13.4	2.2	1.3	0.9	54.1%	39.4%	3.3	86.2%	26.7%
3	Aiden Argabright	G	Fr	5'11"	31-3	23.5	10.8	2.0	2.0	0.8	49.2%	35.0%	2.6	82.9%	24.3%
21	Mike Walz	C	Sr	6'11"	32-32	21.2	7.9	6.4	2.3	1.5	55.9%	38.5%	2.4	75.6%	22.8%
5	Collin Tanner	G	Jr	6'6"	29-22	18.6	5.9	3.2	0.8	0.6	50.7%	29.2%	2.2	75.0%	19.4%
2	Jaden Daughtry	F	Jr	6'7"	31-4	15.7	8.9	3.0	0.6	1.4	57.8%	45.3%	1.7	59.7%	33.5%
12	David Thomas	G	Jr	6'2"	31-7	14.1	4.2	1.1	0.5	0.5	55.4%	42.1%	1.8	87.5%	17.3%
33	Apostolos Roumoglou	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	15.4	2.9	3.3	1.1	0.4	43.0%	22.6%	2.3	66.7%	13.6%
9	Jonathan Beagle	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	14.9	6.0	4.6	1.5	1.0	54.3%	0.0%	0.1	61.1%	24.1%
11	Will Harper III	G	Fr	6'4"	13-0	11.2	3.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	39.7%	29.4%	1.3	84.2%	22.7%
35	Bryson McGlothin	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	4.3	1.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	30.0%	25.0%	1.3	50.0%	27.1%
15	Kirby Mooney	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	4.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.3	—	27.6%
8	Donovan Richardson	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
16	Dylan Homenick	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Richmond

Against the spread

Season

15-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

7-4

Last 10

5-4-1

avg cover −2.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 6 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

8-9

Road

5-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +2.0

Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	N	L 67–75	−4.5	L−12.5	141.5	O142	107.2	120.0	62.5
Mar 7	DuquesneAdjEM #131	A	L 77–79	+4.5	W+2.5	148.0	O156	116.8	119.9	65.9
Mar 3	DaytonAdjEM #62	H	L 60–65	+5.0	P0.0	145.0	U125	97.0	105.1	61.8
Feb 28	Loyola ChicagoAdjEM #309	A	L 66–69	−2.5	L−5.5	146.5	U135	91.7	95.9	72.0
Feb 21	St BonaventureAdjEM #138	H	W 99–94	−1.0	W+4.0	148.5	O193	134.8	128.0	73.4
Feb 18	DavidsonAdjEM #112	A	L 63–65	+5.0	W+3.0	140.5	U128	98.8	101.9	63.8
Feb 14	VCUAdjEM #39	H	L 67–78	+8.5	L−2.5	156.0	U145	95.9	111.6	69.9
Feb 10	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 82–70	+3.0	W+15.0	140.0	O152	116.9	99.8	70.1
Feb 7	Rhode IslandAdjEM #137	A	L 77–82	+6.0	W+1.0	141.0	O159	113.2	120.5	68.0
Jan 31	DavidsonAdjEM #112	H	L 54–79	−2.0	L−27.0	140.5	U133	93.5	136.8	57.8

S Illinois

Against the spread

Season

16-15

Home

5-8

Road

10-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

9-22

Home

4-9

Road

5-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −10.8

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	DrakeAdjEM #210	N	L 63–67	−4.5	L−8.5	138.0	U130	97.8	104.0	64.4
Mar 1	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	A	W 81–67	−9.0	W+5.0	139.5	O148	126.8	104.9	63.9
Feb 25	Indiana StAdjEM #213	H	W 66–55	−8.0	W+3.0	149.0	U121	93.4	77.8	70.7
Feb 21	Northern IowaAdjEM #64	A	W 59–57	+6.5	W+8.5	134.5	U116	96.2	92.9	61.3
Feb 18	DrakeAdjEM #210	A	W 66–61	−1.5	W+3.5	150.0	U127	93.5	86.4	70.6
Feb 15	BradleyAdjEM #117	H	L 60–70	−2.5	L−12.5	147.0	U130	86.8	101.2	69.2
Feb 12	EvansvilleAdjEM #327	H	W 86–60	−12.0	W+14.0	142.5	O146	126.4	88.2	68.1
Feb 9	Indiana StAdjEM #213	A	W 80–65	−1.5	W+13.5	147.5	U145	107.2	87.1	74.7
Feb 6	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	L 81–91	+1.0	L−9.0	158.0	O172	110.8	124.4	73.1
Feb 3	Illinois StAdjEM #80	A	W 54–50	+9.0	W+13.0	141.5	U104	79.5	73.6	67.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

RichmondS Illinois

Efficiency

110.1

105.5

108.9

102.2

68.5

69.4

—

Shooting

52.7%

49.2%

50.5%

52.2%

37.1%

27.8%

75.2%

68.3%

36.9%

31.3%

Ball control & glass

14.3%

17.0%

17.7%

18.5%

25.0%

30.9%

31.0%

27.3%

7.8%

9.7%

7.7%

8.5%

Style

42.6%

29.2%

34.0%

52.3%

16.1%

15.8%

54.5%

48.6%

43.4%

33.2%

Roster

3.10

2.83

6'5.6"

6'5.2"

72.2%

84.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Richmond

Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 78.0%

Lost

Will Johnston 27.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mikkel Tyne 18.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Jaylen Robinson 10.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to Sacred Heart

Added

Dylan Homenick no D1 minutes last season
Donovan Richardson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

S Illinois

Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%

Lost

Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo

Added

Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	S Illinois 84 – 93 Richmond

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.