CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceHope Coliseum, Morgantown, WV
Mercer
Efficiency #161
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
@
West Virginia
Efficiency #58
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-10 conf
Thu, Nov 12 · TBD
67.0
win 23%
Projected
75.8
win 77%
No line posted yet.
Model: WVU −8.7 · total 142.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: West Virginia 65.2, Mercer 69.3 → 66.2 possessions
−4.6
West Virginia offense vs Mercer defense
+2.0
Mercer offense vs West Virginia defense
−2.9
Projected total
142.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
West Virginia offense vs Mercer defense
+2.0
Mercer offense vs West Virginia defense
+2.9
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
West Virginia by 8.7
8.7
Mercer side ◂▸ West Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 142.7 against a projected 142.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help West Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Mercer is the faster team (69.5, #115 of 365) and West Virginia the slower (64.1, #353). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.8
model
Projected team totals
67.0 / 75.8
Mercer / West Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#96
Mercer
65.2#361
West Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
West Virginia averages 64.1 possessions per 40, Mercer 69.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
Mercer has the ball
OffenseWest Virginia allowsvs D1 avg
53.1% #98
48.5% #50
-0.5 pt/100
15.0% #69
17.8% #108
+0.4 pt/100
32.6% #102
28.6% #86
+0.4 pt/100
39.2% #74
29.3% #47
-0.2 pt/100
73.0% #167
—
+0.1 pt/100
Mercer net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
West Virginia has the ball
OffenseMercer allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #166
52.5% #242
+1.2 pt/100
16.8% #188
17.0% #155
-0.2 pt/100
30.5% #178
33.2% #303
+0.9 pt/100
35.1% #173
29.7% #54
-0.4 pt/100
68.3% #319
—
-0.4 pt/100
West Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersMerceroffense vsWest Virginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Mercer shoots
38.1
4.8
18.6
38.4
West Virginia allows
37.1
4.8
19.5
38.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#106 | 55.2%#66 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.4%#94 | 36.8%#106 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.8%#154 | 32.2%#18 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#87 | 34.3%#201 | 33.7% |
West Virginiaoffense vsMercerdefense
Share of shots by zone
West Virginia shoots
38.5
4.6
13.3
43.6
Mercer allows
37.9
4.9
15.2
42.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#150 | 55.1%#59 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.1%#348 | 37.2%#115 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.6%#89 | 44.8%#348 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#227 | 36.2%#311 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersMercer
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#41 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#102
Def reb %
66.8%
#303
Turnover %
15.0%
#69
Forced TO %
17.0%
#155
FT rate
39.2%
#74
FT allowed
29.7%
#54
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.8
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.4
West Virginia
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#54 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#178
Def reb %
71.4%
#86
Turnover %
16.8%
#188
Forced TO %
17.8%
#108
FT rate
35.1%
#173
FT allowed
29.3%
#47
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+1.5
Mercer has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#41 of 365) to West Virginia’s +2.9 (#54).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
West Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Honor Huff | G | Sr | 5'10" | 35-35 | 35.9 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 35.4% | 9.7 | 86.9% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Brenen Lorient | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 29.4 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 35.8% | 2.0 | 70.4% | 25.1% | |
| 1 | Jasper Floyd | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 28.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 52.9% | 37.7% | 1.7 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 55 | Harlan Obioha | C | Sr | 7'0" | 35-35 | 19.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 52.9% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 56.7% | 17.3% | |
| 13 | Chance Moore | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-1 | 22.3 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.2% | 28.1% | 1.1 | 56.3% | 29.9% | |
| 5 | DJ Thomas | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-0 | 16.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 55.1% | 26.9% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Amir Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 16.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 37.3% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 19.2% | |
| 23 | Morris Ugusuk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 24-0 | 11.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 31.8% | 17.1% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 11.3% | |
| 4 | Jayden Forsythe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 1.4 | — | 22.2% | |
| 21 | Niyol Hauet | G | Fr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 11.6% | |
| 8 | Abraham Oyeadier | C | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 7 | Evans Barning Jr. | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | MJ Feenane | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Mercer2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baraka Okojie | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.1 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 47.7% | 32.5% | 3.9 | 81.8% | 33.4% | |
| 26 | Armani Mighty | C | Jr | 6'10" | 32-32 | 31.1 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 53.9% | 22.3% | |
| 1 | Zaire Williams | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-32 | 28.5 | 13.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55.4% | 36.0% | 6.2 | 83.6% | 24.9% | |
| 11 | Brady Shoulders | G | So | 6'6" | 29-29 | 30.7 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 49.8% | 33.3% | 2.7 | 70.4% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | Quinton Perkins II | G | So | 6'1" | 28-16 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55.4% | 40.8% | 4.5 | 85.7% | 21.2% | |
| 2 | Connor Serven | F | Sr | 6'8" | 28-5 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 58.9% | 32.0% | 0.9 | 69.2% | 16.8% | |
| 5 | Kyle Cuffe Jr. | G | Sr | 6'2" | 31-14 | 16.5 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 48.5% | 33.6% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 27.0% | |
| 10 | Tristan Gross | G | Jr | 6'6" | 28-0 | 13.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 58.9% | 43.5% | 1.6 | 75.0% | 16.2% | |
| 8 | Bendji Pierre | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.4% | 30.0% | 2.3 | 58.3% | 25.0% | |
| 14 | TJ Grant | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 9.3% | |
| 23 | Braeden Carlsen | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 36.2% | 22.7% | 2.8 | 50.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Jaydon Cole | G | Fr | 6'3" | 7-0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 2.9 | 50.0% | 29.0% | |
| 18 | Pero Zubac | F | Fr | 6'10" | 7-0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 71.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 16.9% | |
| 15 | Alex Koch | F | So | 6'8" | 5-0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.8% | |
| 0 | NJ Nganga | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 12 | Petras Padegimas | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Mercer
Against the spread
Season
18-10-1
Home
8-3-1
Road
10-6
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
14-14-1
Home
9-3
Road
5-10-1
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −1.4
Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 10 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | W Carolina | N | L 73–77 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 154.0 | U150 | 108.5 | 114.5 | 67.3 |
| Feb 28 | ETSU | H | W 82–76 | −1.5 | W+4.5 | 151.0 | O158 | 128.4 | 119.0 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | W Carolina | A | L 74–78 | −1.0 | L−5.0 | 157.0 | U152 | 107.8 | 113.6 | 68.6 |
| Feb 21 | Samford | H | W 89–86 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O175 | 126.4 | 122.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 19 | Chattanooga | H | L 90–94 | −10.0 | L−14.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 138.6 | 144.7 | 65.0 |
| Feb 14 | The Citadel | A | W 70–54 | −12.0 | W+4.0 | 147.5 | U124 | 113.6 | 87.6 | 61.6 |
| Feb 11 | Furman | H | W 69–64 | −3.5 | W+1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 103.6 | 96.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 7 | Samford | A | L 49–69 | −2.0 | L−22.0 | 161.0 | U118 | 74.5 | 104.9 | 65.8 |
| Feb 5 | Chattanooga | A | L 75–79 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 155.0 | U154 | 104.0 | 109.5 | 72.2 |
| Jan 31 | VMI | H | W 95–81 | −18.0 | L−4.0 | 153.5 | O176 | 130.7 | 111.4 | 72.7 |
West Virginia
Against the spread
Season
18-17
Home
10-8
Road
3-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-22
Home
5-13
Road
2-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.9
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | Oklahoma | N | W 89–82 OT | +3.0 | W+10.0 | 138.5 | O171 | 123.9 | 114.2 | 71.8 |
| Apr 4 | Creighton | N | W 87–70 | −1.5 | W+15.5 | 137.0 | O157 | 128.7 | 103.6 | 67.6 |
| Apr 2 | Stanford | N | W 82–77 OT | −2.0 | W+3.0 | 135.5 | O159 | 111.7 | 104.9 | 73.4 |
| Mar 11 | BYU | N | L 48–68 | +3.5 | L−16.5 | 141.0 | U116 | 76.6 | 108.5 | 62.6 |
| Mar 6 | UCF | H | W 77–62 | −4.5 | W+10.5 | 141.5 | U139 | 115.4 | 92.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 3 | Kansas St | A | L 63–65 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 94.4 | 97.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | #19BYU | H | W 79–71 | +2.0 | W+10.0 | 141.0 | O150 | 124.9 | 112.3 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Oklahoma St | A | L 84–91 OT | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 143.5 | O175 | 115.4 | 125.1 | 72.8 |
| Feb 21 | TCU | A | L 54–60 | +4.5 | L−1.5 | 133.5 | U114 | 89.6 | 99.6 | 60.3 |
| Feb 18 | Utah | H | L 56–61 | −10.5 | L−15.5 | 134.0 | U117 | 91.7 | 99.9 | 61.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMercerWest Virginia
Efficiency
111.3
109.6
110.5
101.3
69.3
65.2
—
—
Shooting
53.1%
51.6%
53.0%
53.1%
35.6%
33.1%
73.0%
68.3%
39.2%
35.1%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
16.8%
17.0%
17.8%
32.6%
30.5%
33.2%
28.6%
8.8%
9.6%
8.1%
11.4%
Style
39.2%
43.0%
40.9%
43.1%
16.3%
10.4%
46.2%
51.9%
26.8%
30.1%
Roster
3.07
3.39
6'5.2"
6'4.7"
—
84.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMercer
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Mercer's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
West Virginia
Returning minutes: 84.2%Returning production: 85.1%
Lost
- Treysen Eaglestaff 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jackson Fields 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- MJ Feenane no D1 minutes last season
- Evans Barning Jr. no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.