CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBeasley Coliseum, Pullman, WA
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
@
Washington St
Efficiency #174
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
73.9
win 39%
Projected
77.3
win 61%
No line posted yet.
Model: WSU −3.4 · total 151.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Washington St 68.7, Idaho 68.4 → 68.8 possessions
+1.0
Washington St offense vs Idaho defense
+0.7
Idaho offense vs Washington St defense
+1.3
Projected total
151.2
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Washington St offense vs Idaho defense
+0.7
Idaho offense vs Washington St defense
−1.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Washington St by 3.4
3.4
Idaho side ◂▸ Washington St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Washington St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Idaho is the faster team (69.1, #139 of 365) and Washington St the slower (68.9, #152). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.2
model
Projected team totals
73.9 / 77.3
Idaho / Washington St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#176
Idaho
68.7#149
Washington St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho scores: ball control
Idaho turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#64); Washington St forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#317). Expect about 14.3%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageWashington St
Where Washington St scores: shooting
Washington St shoots an effective 54.7% (#48); Idaho allows 50.5% (#128). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassWashington St
Washington St gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.8% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Washington St's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Washington St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Idaho at about 43.7% of its shots from three, Washington St about 41.1%.
GlassIdaho
Idaho gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.9% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against Idaho's offense.
ClashWashington St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Washington St takes 44.8% of its shots from three; Idaho runs teams off the line (35.4% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Idaho has the ball
OffenseWashington St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
52.6% #248
+1.1 pt/100
15.0% #64
14.6% #317
+3.0 pt/100
28.4% #250
28.2% #71
-1.5 pt/100
34.6% #193
33.0% #133
-0.2 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100
Washington St has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
54.7% #48
50.5% #128
+2.3 pt/100
18.4% #292
15.1% #283
+0.2 pt/100
29.5% #221
24.2% #5
-2.2 pt/100
30.2% #305
38.5% #273
-0.0 pt/100
74.5% #103
—
+0.2 pt/100
Washington St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersIdahooffense vsWashington Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
36.9
5.6
10.5
47.0
Washington St allows
38.1
7.3
17.9
36.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.8%#245 | 58.2%#152 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.2%#216 | 41.3%#218 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.0%#185 | 44.6%#345 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.1%#168 | 35.4%#273 | 33.7% |
Washington Stoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington St shoots
33.0
6.7
16.3
44.0
Idaho allows
36.5
7.8
20.7
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.3%#48 | 55.5%#76 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.1%#243 | 43.7%#263 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#98 | 38.8%#195 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#40 | 35.2%#264 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersIdaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Washington St
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#297 of 365
Off reb %
29.5%
#221
Def reb %
71.8%
#71
Turnover %
18.4%
#292
Forced TO %
14.6%
#317
FT rate
30.2%
#305
FT allowed
33.0%
#133
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Idaho has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#158 of 365) to Washington St’s −2.8 (#297).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jackson Rasmussen | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 53.4% | 32.1% | 3.1 | 68.3% | 26.3% | |
| 14 | Kolton Mitchell | G | So | 6'1" | 33-32 | 30.4 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 50.3% | 36.3% | 6.1 | 79.7% | 26.5% | |
| 3 | Biko Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 36-35 | 27.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.5% | 30.8% | 5.5 | 72.5% | 29.3% | |
| 0 | Brody Rowbury | F | Sr | 6'11" | 36-36 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.0% | 38.7% | 0.9 | 68.3% | 16.5% | |
| 7 | Jack Payne | G | Jr | 6'6" | 34-22 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 31.6% | 4.0 | 82.4% | 19.8% | |
| 5 | Isaiah Brickner | G | Sr | 6'4" | 35-13 | 20.5 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 41.1% | 3.2 | 76.0% | 31.9% | |
| 21 | Seth Joba | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-0 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 35.5% | 2.6 | 65.6% | 17.6% | |
| 1 | Trevon Blassingame | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-3 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 58.9% | 37.9% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 13.2% | |
| 24 | Miles Klapper | G | So | 6'3" | 29-4 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 1.4 | 68.4% | 18.1% | |
| 4 | Aidan Sevilla | G | Sr | 6'0" | 20-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 28.6% | 0.7 | 88.9% | 19.5% | |
| 15 | Ewan Steele | F | So | 6'9" | 15-0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 14.0% | |
| 10 | Kristian Gonzalez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 35.7% | |
| 2 | Talon Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Titus Yearout | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Tyler Linhardt | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Will Jenson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Washington St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Ace Glass | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-24 | 28.9 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 54.4% | 36.4% | 6.1 | 88.2% | 32.8% | |
| 2 | Eemeli Yalaho | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-27 | 28.3 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 57.8% | 39.8% | 4.0 | 79.7% | 20.6% | |
| 15 | Rihards Vavers | F | Jr | 6'7" | 29-16 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 62.1% | 41.2% | 6.1 | 88.9% | 22.2% | |
| 13 | Adria Rodriguez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 20.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 6.7% | 0.5 | 42.4% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | Simon Hildebrandt | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-2 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.5% | 37.0% | 2.5 | 71.9% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Tomas Thrastarson | G | So | 6'7" | 19-13 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 50.0% | 28.8% | 2.7 | 73.8% | 24.2% | |
| 0 | Emmanuel Ugbo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-6 | 18.1 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 23.1% | |
| 10 | Parker Gerrits | G | So | 6'2" | 31-0 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 54.8% | 37.5% | 1.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 51 | Kase Wynott | G | So | 6'6" | 5-0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.0 | — | 21.3% | |
| 7 | Dio Blakely | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 56.0% | |
| 4 | Brunel Madzou | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dominik Robinson | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Jackson Rasmussen | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-35 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 53.4% | 32.1% | 3.1 | 68.3% | 26.3% | |
| 14 | Kolton Mitchell | G | So | 6'1" | 33-32 | 30.4 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 50.3% | 36.3% | 6.1 | 79.7% | 26.5% | |
| 3 | Biko Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 36-35 | 27.7 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 45.5% | 30.8% | 5.5 | 72.5% | 29.3% | |
| 0 | Brody Rowbury | F | Sr | 6'11" | 36-36 | 24.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.0% | 38.7% | 0.9 | 68.3% | 16.5% | |
| 7 | Jack Payne | G | Jr | 6'6" | 34-22 | 21.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 48.8% | 31.6% | 4.0 | 82.4% | 19.8% | |
| 5 | Isaiah Brickner | G | Sr | 6'4" | 35-13 | 20.5 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 55.6% | 41.1% | 3.2 | 76.0% | 31.9% | |
| 21 | Seth Joba | F | Jr | 6'9" | 36-0 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 55.4% | 35.5% | 2.6 | 65.6% | 17.6% | |
| 1 | Trevon Blassingame | G | Jr | 6'4" | 35-3 | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 58.9% | 37.9% | 1.9 | 72.7% | 13.2% | |
| 24 | Miles Klapper | G | So | 6'3" | 29-4 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 1.4 | 68.4% | 18.1% | |
| 4 | Aidan Sevilla | G | Sr | 6'0" | 20-0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 48.5% | 28.6% | 0.7 | 88.9% | 19.5% | |
| 15 | Ewan Steele | F | So | 6'9" | 15-0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 44.4% | 40.0% | 0.3 | 60.0% | 14.0% | |
| 10 | Kristian Gonzalez | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 93.8% | 75.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 35.7% | |
| 2 | Talon Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | Titus Yearout | G | Jr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Tyler Linhardt | F | Sr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 34 | Will Jenson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Idaho
Against the spread
Season
16-17
Home
4-6
Road
7-9
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-20
Home
4-6
Road
6-10
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total −5.9
Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #2Houston | N | L 47–78 | +24.0 | L−7.0 | 137.5 | U125 | 71.6 | 118.8 | 65.7 |
| Mar 11 | Montana | N | W 77–66 | −3.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | U143 | 106.8 | 91.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 10 | E Washington | N | W 81–68 | −2.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O149 | 113.2 | 95.1 | 71.5 |
| Mar 8 | Montana St | N | W 78–74 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 143.0 | O152 | 115.7 | 109.8 | 67.4 |
| Mar 7 | Sacramento St | N | W 68–45 | −7.0 | W+16.0 | 158.5 | U113 | 98.2 | 65.0 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | E Washington | A | W 85–81 | +3.0 | W+7.0 | 150.5 | O166 | 127.0 | 121.0 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | N Colorado | H | L 67–76 | −2.0 | L−11.0 | 156.0 | U143 | 100.0 | 113.4 | 67.0 |
| Feb 26 | N Arizona | H | W 78–58 | −10.5 | W+9.5 | 146.0 | U136 | 128.6 | 95.6 | 60.7 |
| Feb 21 | Sacramento St | A | W 86–80 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 165.0 | O166 | 117.4 | 109.2 | 73.3 |
| Feb 19 | Portland St | A | L 67–77 | +3.5 | L−6.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 97.7 | 112.3 | 68.6 |
Washington St
Against the spread
Season
15-16
Home
8-7
Road
6-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-15
Home
10-5
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.0
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Portland | N | L 68–74 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | U142 | 97.7 | 106.3 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Pepperdine | A | L 79–88 | −8.0 | L−17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 104.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | LMU | A | L 66–67 | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 148.0 | U133 | 97.1 | 98.6 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Saint Mary's | H | L 67–83 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 106.5 | 131.9 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Pacific | H | W 87–70 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 143.5 | O157 | 132.8 | 106.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 10 | #12Gonzaga | A | L 53–83 | +21.5 | L−8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 74.8 | 117.1 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | Santa Clara | H | L 92–96 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 129.8 | 135.5 | 70.9 |
| Feb 4 | Oregon St | A | L 64–74 | −2.0 | L−12.0 | 148.0 | U138 | 94.7 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
| Jan 31 | Portland | H | W 104–74 | −8.5 | W+21.5 | 152.0 | O178 | 145.2 | 103.3 | 71.6 |
| Jan 28 | Seattle U | H | W 70–58 | −2.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | U128 | 102.9 | 85.2 | 68.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIdahoWashington St
Efficiency
108.3
110.7
107.3
110.6
68.4
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
54.7%
51.6%
54.6%
34.1%
36.5%
72.6%
74.5%
34.6%
30.2%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
18.4%
15.1%
14.6%
28.4%
29.5%
24.2%
28.2%
9.0%
10.1%
9.0%
9.6%
Style
47.0%
44.8%
39.4%
38.9%
9.2%
11.7%
44.6%
51.6%
31.4%
34.1%
Roster
2.88
2.77
6'5.2"
6'6"
—
75.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIdaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Washington St
Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 73.1%
Lost
- Jerone Morton 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- ND Okafor 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Dominik Robinson no D1 minutes last season
- Brunel Madzou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 3 | 2025-26 | Idaho 83 – 81 Washington St |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.