CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceState Farm Center, Champaign, IL

Western KY

Efficiency #159

2025-26: 18-14 · 11-10 conf

Illinois

Efficiency #4

2025-26: 28-9 · 15-6 conf

Fri, Nov 27 · TBD

67.4

win 6%

Projected

85.5

win 94%

No line posted yet.

Model: ILL −18.0 · total 152.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Illinois 67.0, Western KY 70.0 → 68.7 possessions

+0.8

Illinois offense vs Western KY defense

+9.0

Western KY offense vs Illinois defense

−5.1

Projected total

152.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Illinois offense vs Western KY defense

+9.0

Western KY offense vs Illinois defense

+5.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Illinois by 18.0

18.0

Western KY side ◂▸ Illinois side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +18.1 against +18.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Illinois.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Western KY is the faster team (70.9, #56 of 365) and Illinois the slower (65.7, #310). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

152.9

model

Projected team totals

67.4 / 85.5

Western KY / Illinois

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

70.0#50

Western KY

67.0#289

Illinois

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageWestern KY

Where Western KY struggles: shooting

Western KY shoots an effective 47.5% (#327); Illinois allows 47.3% (#26). Expect about 47.1%, 4.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversWestern KY

Western KY protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 12.2% is worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions for Western KY's offense.

AdvantageIllinois

Where Illinois scores: the offensive glass

Illinois rebounds 39.2% of its own misses (#3); Western KY lets opponents grab 29.5% of their own misses (#135). Expect about 36.1%, 5.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseIllinois

Illinois's shot-blocking

Illinois ranks #26 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.9% of Western KY's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Illinois averages 65.7 possessions per 40, Western KY 70.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversIllinois

Illinois protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Illinois's offense.

Western KY has the ball

OffenseIllinois allowsvs D1 avg

47.5% #327

47.3% #26

-6.0 pt/100

14.5% #43

11.6% #365

+5.6 pt/100

31.8% #134

26.7% #28

-0.5 pt/100

41.2% #42

19.7% #1

-0.8 pt/100

75.7% #62

—

+0.3 pt/100

Western KY net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.4 pts/100

Illinois has the ball

OffenseWestern KY allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #46

51.2% #169

+2.7 pt/100

13.1% #10

17.2% #134

+2.2 pt/100

39.2% #3

29.5% #135

+3.5 pt/100

33.2% #232

46.8% #357

+0.8 pt/100

78.0% #17

—

+0.5 pt/100

Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Western KYoffense vsIllinoisdefense

Share of shots by zone

Western KY shoots

40.3

6.4

14.0

39.3

Illinois allows

27.0

7.0

21.9

44.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	50.5%#357	59.4%#208	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.8%#271	37.7%#129	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.9%#294	35.8%#101	38.0%
Three	33.4%#205	31.3%#38	33.7%

Illinoisoffense vsWestern KYdefense

Share of shots by zone

Illinois shoots

32.9

6.9

10.2

49.9

Western KY allows

33.5

5.5

18.8

42.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.5%#11	58.2%#151	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#141	33.7%#39	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.1%#181	43.5%#335	38.0%
Three	34.5%#142	34.3%#205	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Western KY

+1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#127 of 365

Off reb %

31.8%

#134

Def reb %

70.5%

#135

Turnover %

14.5%

#43

Forced TO %

17.2%

#134

FT rate

41.2%

#42

FT allowed

46.8%

#357

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.6

Foul shots allowed−3.0

Illinois

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365

Off reb %

39.2%

Def reb %

73.3%

#28

Turnover %

13.1%

#10

Forced TO %

11.6%

#365

FT rate

33.2%

#232

FT allowed

19.7%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.8

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+2.5

Forcing turnovers−3.5

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+4.0

Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#9 of 365) to Western KY’s +1.3 (#127).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Western KY2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Teagan Moore	G	So	6'5"	27-25	29.3	18.7	5.6	2.0	1.7	58.0%	42.9%	2.6	80.0%	30.9%
4	Ryan Myers	G	Sr	6'1"	32-11	22.5	11.0	2.2	1.6	1.1	53.1%	41.1%	5.6	91.4%	26.5%
12	Armelo Boone	G	Fr	6'4"	29-11	24.5	10.9	6.1	2.0	1.7	41.3%	24.4%	3.0	68.4%	32.0%
2	LJ Hackman	G	Jr	6'3"	32-21	21.6	8.5	2.9	1.6	1.1	44.2%	27.8%	2.3	78.4%	23.9%
11	Terrion Murdix	G	Sr	6'1"	24-22	23.9	5.6	3.6	4.1	1.7	34.5%	27.3%	0.5	81.0%	19.0%
1	Blaise Keita	F	Sr	6'11"	31-19	12.9	2.5	3.8	0.4	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	64.9%	12.1%
3	Cam Haffner	G	Sr	6'2"	27-6	13.0	4.5	1.3	0.5	0.4	47.9%	32.7%	3.6	100.0%	20.7%
21	Leeroy Odiahi	F	Sr	6'11"	30-2	10.1	2.1	1.0	0.1	0.4	64.7%	—	0.0	82.6%	10.6%
6	Kade Unseld	G	Fr	6'5"	22-4	11.7	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.4	42.9%	28.0%	3.4	50.0%	20.7%
7	Noah Boyde	F	Sr	7'0"	23-11	11.1	2.5	2.9	0.3	0.5	51.3%	—	0.0	37.8%	16.0%
5	Jack Edelen	G	Jr	5'10"	28-3	7.7	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.5	26.7%	15.8%	0.7	92.3%	16.5%
0	Bryant Selebangue	F	Sr	6'8"	9-0	18.4	7.2	6.9	0.8	0.9	60.0%	—	0.0	47.8%	20.2%
10	Cade Stinnett	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	7.1	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.0	37.5%	25.0%	0.5	90.9%	11.5%
33	Louie Semona	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	8.7	2.9	1.2	0.7	0.3	71.4%	60.0%	1.1	100.0%	14.0%
24	Lawson Rice	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Illinois2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	David Mirkovic	F	Fr	6'9"	37-36	29.5	13.3	8.0	2.6	1.9	56.2%	37.5%	4.1	75.7%	27.3%
2	Andrej Stojakovic	G	Jr	6'7"	34-21	26.3	13.5	4.5	1.0	1.3	53.0%	24.4%	2.4	80.5%	30.0%
13	Tomislav Ivisic	C	Jr	7'1"	34-33	25.4	10.4	5.6	1.6	1.4	57.6%	31.3%	4.7	77.8%	24.5%
15	Jake Davis	F	Jr	6'6"	37-22	19.6	5.4	2.2	0.7	0.2	61.2%	40.6%	3.6	75.0%	13.9%
44	Zvonimir Ivisic	C	Jr	7'2"	37-4	17.2	6.4	4.5	0.3	0.5	59.1%	28.0%	2.7	69.2%	20.2%
77	Mihailo Petrovic	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	6.1	1.7	0.8	1.2	0.7	36.1%	20.0%	0.6	83.3%	27.7%
1	Brandon Lee	G	Fr	6'4"	16-0	4.8	1.9	0.4	0.2	0.3	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	93.3%	23.7%
31	Jason Jakstys	F	Fr	6'10"	9-0	5.2	1.3	1.9	0.2	0.0	80.0%	—	0.0	66.7%	9.3%
8	Blake Fagbemi	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	3.5	0.2	1.0	0.4	0.2	20.0%	—	0.0	—	10.0%
5	AJ Redd	G	Sr	6'3"	11-0	2.4	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.1	50.0%	33.3%	0.3	66.7%	32.6%
20	Ty Rodgers	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Western KY2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Teagan Moore	G	So	6'5"	27-25	29.3	18.7	5.6	2.0	1.7	58.0%	42.9%	2.6	80.0%	30.9%
4	Ryan Myers	G	Sr	6'1"	32-11	22.5	11.0	2.2	1.6	1.1	53.1%	41.1%	5.6	91.4%	26.5%
12	Armelo Boone	G	Fr	6'4"	29-11	24.5	10.9	6.1	2.0	1.7	41.3%	24.4%	3.0	68.4%	32.0%
2	LJ Hackman	G	Jr	6'3"	32-21	21.6	8.5	2.9	1.6	1.1	44.2%	27.8%	2.3	78.4%	23.9%
11	Terrion Murdix	G	Sr	6'1"	24-22	23.9	5.6	3.6	4.1	1.7	34.5%	27.3%	0.5	81.0%	19.0%
1	Blaise Keita	F	Sr	6'11"	31-19	12.9	2.5	3.8	0.4	0.5	50.0%	—	0.0	64.9%	12.1%
3	Cam Haffner	G	Sr	6'2"	27-6	13.0	4.5	1.3	0.5	0.4	47.9%	32.7%	3.6	100.0%	20.7%
21	Leeroy Odiahi	F	Sr	6'11"	30-2	10.1	2.1	1.0	0.1	0.4	64.7%	—	0.0	82.6%	10.6%
6	Kade Unseld	G	Fr	6'5"	22-4	11.7	3.4	1.7	0.4	0.4	42.9%	28.0%	3.4	50.0%	20.7%
7	Noah Boyde	F	Sr	7'0"	23-11	11.1	2.5	2.9	0.3	0.5	51.3%	—	0.0	37.8%	16.0%
5	Jack Edelen	G	Jr	5'10"	28-3	7.7	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.5	26.7%	15.8%	0.7	92.3%	16.5%
0	Bryant Selebangue	F	Sr	6'8"	9-0	18.4	7.2	6.9	0.8	0.9	60.0%	—	0.0	47.8%	20.2%
10	Cade Stinnett	G	Jr	6'3"	15-0	7.1	1.5	1.2	0.1	0.0	37.5%	25.0%	0.5	90.9%	11.5%
33	Louie Semona	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	8.7	2.9	1.2	0.7	0.3	71.4%	60.0%	1.1	100.0%	14.0%
24	Lawson Rice	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Western KY

Against the spread

Season

15-15

Home

7-7

Road

5-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover +1.1

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 3 of 9 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

8-6

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +12.0

Over in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	N	L 87–96	−1.0	L−10.0	159.5	O183	113.0	124.6	77.0
Mar 7	FIUAdjEM #200	A	L 67–92	−1.0	L−26.0	160.0	U159	91.5	125.7	73.2
Mar 5	Missouri StAdjEM #212	A	L 74–87	−1.0	L−14.0	152.5	O161	111.3	130.9	66.5
Feb 28	UTEPAdjEM #279	H	W 97–65	−9.0	W+23.0	146.5	O162	134.7	90.2	72.0
Feb 26	New Mexico StAdjEM #178	H	W 93–70	−5.5	W+17.5	151.5	O163	117.8	88.7	78.9
Feb 21	LibertyAdjEM #103	A	W 94–73	+7.5	W+28.5	149.0	O167	135.5	105.3	69.3
Feb 18	DelawareAdjEM #302	A	W 88–87 OT	−4.0	L−3.0	139.5	O175	126.7	125.3	69.4
Feb 14	MTSUAdjEM #167	H	W 82–80	−3.0	L−1.0	144.5	O162	116.0	113.2	70.7
Feb 7	FIUAdjEM #200	H	W 80–70	−4.0	W+6.0	156.0	U150	117.5	102.8	68.1
Feb 5	Jax StateAdjEM #215	H	L 66–71	−5.0	L−10.0	140.0	U137	92.2	99.2	71.6

Illinois

Against the spread

Season

19-15-2

Home

7-7-2

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −0.4

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-22

Home

5-11

Road

7-3

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.1

Under 4 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Apr 4	#2UConnAdjEM #10	N	L 62–71	−1.5	L−10.5	139.0	U133	97.6	111.8	63.5
Mar 28	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	W 71–59	−7.0	W+5.0	138.5	U130	129.5	107.6	54.8
Mar 26	#2HoustonAdjEM #6	N	W 65–55	+2.5	W+12.5	139.5	U120	111.2	94.1	58.5
Mar 21	#11VCUAdjEM #39	N	W 76–55	−12.0	W+9.0	150.5	U131	115.2	83.4	66.0
Mar 19	#14PennAdjEM #162	N	W 105–70	−25.5	W+9.5	151.0	O175	154.5	103.0	68.0
Mar 13	#23WisconsinAdjEM #28	N	L 88–91 OT	−8.0	L−11.0	157.0	O179	117.0	121.0	75.2
Mar 8	MarylandAdjEM #198	A	W 78–72	−14.0	L−8.0	145.0	O150	127.4	117.6	61.2
Mar 3	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 80–54	−17.5	W+8.5	147.0	U134	116.9	78.9	68.5
Feb 27	#3MichiganAdjEM #1	H	L 70–84	+2.0	L−12.0	159.5	U154	105.4	126.5	66.4
Feb 21	UCLAAdjEM #37	A	L 94–95 OT	−6.0	L−7.0	147.0	O189	129.0	130.4	72.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Western KYIllinois

Efficiency

108.4

122.5

107.5

101.2

70.0

67.0

—

Shooting

47.5%

54.7%

45.8%

57.5%

33.4%

34.5%

75.7%

78.0%

41.2%

33.2%

Ball control & glass

14.5%

13.1%

17.2%

11.6%

31.8%

39.2%

29.5%

26.7%

8.4%

8.2%

11.9%

8.2%

Style

39.4%

49.7%

39.1%

39.7%

15.2%

6.8%

51.2%

50.0%

42.7%

29.2%

Roster

3.01

2.40

6'4.4"

6'9.3"

87.1%

60.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Western KY

Returning minutes: 87.1%Returning production: 86.4%

Lost

Grant Newell 25.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Lawson Rice no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Illinois

Returning minutes: 60.1%Returning production: 60.0%

Lost

Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ty Rodgers no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.