CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBender Arena, Washington, DCCapital Thanksgiving Classic
Radford
Efficiency #245
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-8 conf
@
American
Efficiency #234
2025-26: 16-16 · 9-10 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · 4:00 PM ET
74.4
win 35%
Projected
78.7
win 65%
No line posted yet.
Model: AMER −4.3 · total 153.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: American 67.9, Radford 70.6 → 70.2 possessions
+4.0
American offense vs Radford defense
+0.6
Radford offense vs American defense
+0.3
Projected total
153.1
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
American offense vs Radford defense
+0.6
Radford offense vs American defense
−0.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
American by 4.3
4.3
Radford side ◂▸ American side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help American.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Radford is the faster team (72.3, #18 of 365) and American the slower (66.7, #258). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.1
model
Projected team totals
74.4 / 78.7
Radford / American
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.6#24
Radford
67.9#217
American
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
American averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Radford 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageRadford
Where Radford scores: shooting
Radford shoots an effective 51.3% (#181); American allows 54.4% (#313). Expect about 52.9%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversRadford
Radford turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.5% is worth roughly -2.1 points per 100 possessions against Radford's offense.
Radford has the ball
OffenseAmerican allowsvs D1 avg
51.3% #181
54.4% #313
+2.3 pt/100
17.1% #208
19.2% #40
-2.1 pt/100
29.8% #207
29.4% #127
-0.5 pt/100
42.4% #25
42.1% #324
+1.0 pt/100
71.0% #236
—
-0.1 pt/100
Radford net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100
American has the ball
OffenseRadford allowsvs D1 avg
51.5% #169
53.0% #271
+1.5 pt/100
15.6% #114
18.5% #73
-0.6 pt/100
26.9% #299
32.2% #267
-1.0 pt/100
28.7% #335
40.0% #301
-0.0 pt/100
75.8% #57
—
+0.3 pt/100
American net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersRadfordoffense vsAmericandefense
Share of shots by zone
Radford shoots
38.3
3.9
12.8
44.9
American allows
40.6
6.8
15.4
37.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.8%#246 | 62.5%#311 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.6%#109 | 48.0%#339 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.2%#141 | 37.6%#145 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.5%#199 | 35.5%#283 | 33.7% |
Americanoffense vsRadforddefense
Share of shots by zone
American shoots
35.9
7.3
10.4
46.4
Radford allows
42.6
7.1
12.5
37.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.0%#161 | 57.5%#131 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.5%#92 | 39.8%#190 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 39.6%#127 | 42.4%#316 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.0%#235 | 35.5%#279 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersRadford
+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#136 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#207
Def reb %
67.8%
#267
Turnover %
17.1%
#208
Forced TO %
18.5%
#73
FT rate
42.4%
#25
FT allowed
40.0%
#301
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.5
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn+1.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2
American
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#259 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#299
Def reb %
70.6%
#127
Turnover %
15.6%
#114
Forced TO %
19.2%
#40
FT rate
28.7%
#335
FT allowed
42.1%
#324
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed−1.8
Radford has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#136 of 365) to American’s −1.6 (#259).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Radford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Del Jones | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.8 | 17.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 46.5% | 30.9% | 4.3 | 80.9% | 33.8% | |
| 11 | Dennis Parker Jr. | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.3 | 18.3 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 55.8% | 37.7% | 5.0 | 65.7% | 33.9% | |
| 3 | Jaylon Johnson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 29-27 | 31.3 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 46.8% | 32.4% | 7.2 | 80.0% | 24.2% | |
| 21 | Tyson Brown | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 27.6 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 59.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 43.0% | 14.3% | |
| 24 | Lukas Walls | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-26 | 23.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 67.6% | 45.5% | 3.2 | 75.4% | 15.5% | |
| 4 | Brennan Rigsby Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-3 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 48.1% | 27.9% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 14.7% | |
| 5 | Mari Jordan | G | So | 6'5" | 32-8 | 13.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 55.4% | 31.8% | 1.4 | 94.6% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Frederik Erichsen | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-0 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 54.7% | 30.0% | 1.6 | 74.3% | 23.5% | |
| 6 | Louie Jordan | F | Sr | 6'9" | 29-0 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 54.5% | 36.0% | 3.1 | 62.5% | 20.9% | |
| 12 | Gabriel Ferreira | C | Fr | 6'10" | 11-0 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 55.6% | 18.2% | |
| 30 | Warren Keel Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 13-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 40.6% | 20.0% | 0.4 | — | 12.3% | |
| 13 | Bradley Land | G | Jr | 6'6" | 9-0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 20.2% | |
| 31 | Diogo Alves | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Zion Walker | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
American2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted American's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Greg Jones | F | Jr | 6'6" | 32-31 | 30.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 45.4% | 27.0% | 3.5 | 80.7% | 26.1% | |
| 33 | Matt Mayock | F | Jr | 6'7" | 31-31 | 28.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 34.4% | 3.0 | 82.7% | 17.2% | |
| 12 | Geoff Sprouse | G | Sr | 6'1" | 32-32 | 26.8 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 57.0% | 39.0% | 6.1 | 75.0% | 19.6% | |
| 32 | Julen Iturbe | F | So | 6'7" | 32-32 | 25.8 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 56.5% | 35.2% | 3.9 | 67.2% | 24.9% | |
| 7 | Wyatt Nausadis | G | So | 6'4" | 32-18 | 22.8 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 52.0% | 35.5% | 3.4 | 70.4% | 22.1% | |
| 2 | Madden Collins | G | Fr | 6'5" | 32-0 | 21.8 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 54.0% | 22.6% | 2.9 | 70.3% | 36.2% | |
| 4 | Kade Sebastian | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-16 | 21.7 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 57.1% | 37.9% | 2.7 | 80.4% | 14.7% | |
| 35 | Chris Eagan | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-0 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 44.8% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 79.3% | 25.3% | |
| 3 | Dean Hogans | G | Fr | 6'4" | 22-0 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 56.7% | 35.5% | 1.4 | 42.9% | 18.8% | |
| 16 | Luke Brown | F | Fr | 6'9" | 19-0 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 38.1% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 83.3% | 14.3% | |
| 13 | Carson McDonald | F | Fr | 6'9" | 4-0 | 14.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 68.8% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 63.6% | 22.1% | |
| 9 | Matthew Casey | G | Fr | 6'4" | 7-0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 15.0% | 12.5% | 1.1 | 50.0% | 30.4% | |
| 8 | Jack Anderson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 7.5% | |
| 10 | Adrian Samuels | G | Sr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Eric Michaels | F | So | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Gibraltar Coleman | F | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Kamran Prince | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Noah Jones | F | Sr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Shane O'Reilly | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Radford2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Del Jones | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.8 | 17.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 46.5% | 30.9% | 4.3 | 80.9% | 33.8% | |
| 11 | Dennis Parker Jr. | G | Jr | 6'6" | 32-32 | 29.3 | 18.3 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 55.8% | 37.7% | 5.0 | 65.7% | 33.9% | |
| 3 | Jaylon Johnson | G | Sr | 6'0" | 29-27 | 31.3 | 11.9 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 46.8% | 32.4% | 7.2 | 80.0% | 24.2% | |
| 21 | Tyson Brown | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-32 | 27.6 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 59.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 43.0% | 14.3% | |
| 24 | Lukas Walls | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-26 | 23.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 67.6% | 45.5% | 3.2 | 75.4% | 15.5% | |
| 4 | Brennan Rigsby Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-3 | 19.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 48.1% | 27.9% | 2.7 | 75.0% | 14.7% | |
| 5 | Mari Jordan | G | So | 6'5" | 32-8 | 13.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 55.4% | 31.8% | 1.4 | 94.6% | 19.9% | |
| 7 | Frederik Erichsen | F | Fr | 6'9" | 32-0 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 54.7% | 30.0% | 1.6 | 74.3% | 23.5% | |
| 6 | Louie Jordan | F | Sr | 6'9" | 29-0 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 54.5% | 36.0% | 3.1 | 62.5% | 20.9% | |
| 12 | Gabriel Ferreira | C | Fr | 6'10" | 11-0 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 55.6% | 18.2% | |
| 30 | Warren Keel Jr. | G | Fr | 6'0" | 13-0 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 40.6% | 20.0% | 0.4 | — | 12.3% | |
| 13 | Bradley Land | G | Jr | 6'6" | 9-0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 20.2% | |
| 31 | Diogo Alves | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Zion Walker | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Radford
Against the spread
Season
14-15
Home
6-8
Road
8-4
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +1.0
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 5 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-13
Home
9-5
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.0
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Presbyterian | N | L 85–91 OT | −2.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O176 | 106.4 | 114.0 | 79.8 |
| Feb 28 | Longwood | A | L 74–90 | +2.0 | L−14.0 | 156.0 | O164 | 100.3 | 122.0 | 73.8 |
| Feb 26 | SC Upstate | H | W 71–59 | −8.0 | W+4.0 | 153.0 | U130 | 105.4 | 87.6 | 67.4 |
| Feb 21 | UNC Asheville | A | L 73–74 OT | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 149.0 | U147 | 102.9 | 104.3 | 71.0 |
| Feb 19 | Gardner-Webb | H | W 82–70 | −19.0 | L−7.0 | 162.5 | U152 | 118.8 | 101.4 | 69.0 |
| Feb 14 | Charleston So | H | W 90–80 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 162.0 | O170 | 116.7 | 103.8 | 77.1 |
| Feb 7 | High Point | A | L 77–86 | +15.0 | W+6.0 | 162.0 | O163 | 96.9 | 108.3 | 79.4 |
| Feb 4 | Winthrop | H | L 78–80 | +4.0 | W+2.0 | 160.5 | U158 | 109.1 | 111.8 | 71.5 |
| Jan 31 | Presbyterian | A | W 93–84 2OT | +1.5 | W+10.5 | 152.0 | O177 | 112.9 | 102.0 | 82.4 |
| Jan 29 | Charleston So | A | W 84–75 | +1.0 | W+10.0 | 162.5 | U159 | 107.2 | 95.7 | 78.4 |
American
Against the spread
Season
16-13-1
Home
8-7
Road
8-6-1
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −2.1
Covered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
15-15
Home
7-8
Road
8-7
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +0.6
Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Boston U | A | L 73–75 | +2.0 | P0.0 | 142.5 | O148 | 121.4 | 124.8 | 60.1 |
| Feb 28 | Boston U | H | L 65–68 | −3.5 | L−6.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 101.0 | 105.7 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | Lehigh | H | L 73–78 | −7.0 | L−12.0 | 140.0 | O151 | 110.0 | 117.5 | 66.4 |
| Feb 22 | Lafayette | A | W 75–61 | −3.5 | W+10.5 | 141.0 | U136 | 127.3 | 103.5 | 58.9 |
| Feb 18 | Bucknell | A | W 75–57 | −3.0 | W+15.0 | 140.5 | U132 | 115.9 | 88.1 | 64.7 |
| Feb 14 | Army | H | W 75–63 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 145.5 | U138 | 114.0 | 95.8 | 65.8 |
| Feb 11 | Lehigh | A | L 82–90 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 140.0 | O172 | 110.6 | 121.4 | 74.2 |
| Feb 7 | Navy | A | L 73–82 | +4.5 | L−4.5 | 134.0 | O155 | 113.2 | 127.1 | 64.5 |
| Feb 4 | Bucknell | H | L 59–60 | −8.0 | L−9.0 | 142.0 | U119 | 99.7 | 101.4 | 59.2 |
| Jan 31 | Lafayette | H | L 65–67 | −5.5 | L−7.5 | 143.0 | U132 | 102.2 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRadfordAmerican
Efficiency
107.2
106.9
110.9
110.1
70.6
67.9
—
—
Shooting
51.3%
51.5%
52.3%
53.3%
33.5%
33.0%
71.0%
75.8%
42.4%
28.7%
Ball control & glass
17.1%
15.6%
18.5%
19.2%
29.8%
26.9%
32.2%
29.4%
9.7%
8.9%
9.6%
10.0%
Style
45.4%
46.5%
38.3%
42.6%
16.6%
13.8%
45.7%
49.5%
30.0%
33.2%
Roster
3.01
2.23
6'5"
6'5.2"
—
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRadford
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Radford's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
American
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted American's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.