CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteThe Palestra, Philadelphia, PACathedral Classic
La Salle
Efficiency #256
2025-26: 9-23 · 5-14 conf
vs
Bucknell
Efficiency #334
2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · 3:30 PM ET
72.7
win 63%
Projected
68.9
win 37%
No line posted yet.
Model: LAS −3.9 · total 141.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Bucknell 68.1, La Salle 67.3 → 67.0 possessions
−2.8
Bucknell offense vs La Salle defense
−3.9
La Salle offense vs Bucknell defense
0.0
Projected total
141.6
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Bucknell offense vs La Salle defense
−3.9
La Salle offense vs Bucknell defense
0.0
La Salle by 3.9
3.9
La Salle side ◂▸ Bucknell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 141.5 against a projected 141.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bucknell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bucknell is the faster team (66.9, #247 of 365) and La Salle the slower (66.4, #280). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
141.6
model
Projected team totals
72.7 / 68.9
La Salle / Bucknell
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.3#269
La Salle
68.1#202
Bucknell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageLa Salle
Where La Salle struggles: shooting
La Salle shoots an effective 45.4% (#357); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 49.6%, 1.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Bucknell, La Salle, Bucknell's defense, La Salle's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect La Salle at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Bucknell about 43.9%.
TurnoversLa Salle
La Salle turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against La Salle's offense.
AdvantageBucknell
Where Bucknell struggles: ball control
Bucknell turns it over on 19.0% of possessions (#320); La Salle forces turnovers on 17.1% of opponent possessions (#137). Expect about 18.3%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassLa Salle
La Salle owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.1% is worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions for La Salle's offense.
ClashLa Salle
Style clash: 3-point volume
La Salle rarely shoots threes (31.5% of its shots); Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 37.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
La Salle has the ball
OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg
45.4% #357
54.7% #323
-2.3 pt/100
18.2% #284
17.9% #99
-1.9 pt/100
33.7% #75
31.3% #216
+1.7 pt/100
37.5% #113
35.3% #186
+0.2 pt/100
72.5% #189
—
+0.0 pt/100
La Salle net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.4 pts/100
Bucknell has the ball
OffenseLa Salle allowsvs D1 avg
48.5% #304
55.0% #329
+0.4 pt/100
19.0% #320
17.1% #137
-1.8 pt/100
27.0% #295
32.4% #274
-0.9 pt/100
29.8% #314
31.5% #97
-0.6 pt/100
76.8% #35
—
+0.4 pt/100
Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
La Salleoffense vsBucknelldefense
Share of shots by zone
La Salle shoots
Bucknell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim52.4%#34660.3%#24558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.9%#30545.5%#30939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24240.7%#26838.0%
Three30.0%#34237.0%#34433.7%
Bucknelloffense vsLa Salledefense
Share of shots by zone
Bucknell shoots
La Salle allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.8%#20161.1%#27158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.2%#26542.0%#23139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33640.1%#24638.0%
Three30.6%#32836.5%#32433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
La Salle
+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#122 of 365
Off reb %
33.7%
#75
Def reb %
67.6%
#274
Turnover %
18.2%
#284
Forced TO %
17.1%
#137
FT rate
37.5%
#113
FT allowed
31.5%
#97
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.6
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+0.6
Foul shots allowed+1.0
Bucknell
−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365
Off reb %
27.0%
#295
Def reb %
68.7%
#216
Turnover %
19.0%
#320
Forced TO %
17.9%
#99
FT rate
29.8%
#314
FT allowed
35.3%
#186
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−1.5
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed0.0

La Salle has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.4 (#122 of 365) to Bucknell’s −3.4 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

La Salle2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Ashton WalkerGFr6'5"32-2127.68.23.83.11.644.4%31.6%2.465.3%22.1%
99Rob DockeryGSo6'6"32-2427.312.56.12.32.951.7%25.0%1.877.2%29.9%
2Jaeden MarshallGSr6'5"25-1827.712.02.21.21.146.3%33.8%5.486.2%27.2%
10Jaden JohnsonGSo6'2"19-1929.96.32.44.11.432.1%21.7%1.265.0%19.1%
4Truth HarrisGSr6'2"23-1323.96.51.81.41.040.7%27.5%4.790.3%20.4%
5Josiah HarrisFSr6'9"27-2019.88.45.20.41.545.5%—0.070.1%30.3%
24Jerome Brewer Jr.FJr6'9"19-1526.711.24.20.70.953.2%30.6%3.375.7%25.1%
3Eric AckerGJr6'2"26-1019.05.81.31.71.447.8%36.4%2.169.0%23.0%
27Edwin DanielFJr6'9"31-414.43.93.50.40.949.5%0.0%0.150.0%20.0%
0Justin ArcherFSr6'7"12-419.76.34.50.30.554.5%—0.065.9%17.7%
12Damon StrandGSr6'3"22-310.62.90.90.50.340.2%27.7%2.190.9%19.6%
25Bowyn BeattyFJr7'0"10-311.00.82.50.20.823.5%0.0%0.30.0%14.4%
7Noah CollierFSr6'9"3-314.03.72.31.30.341.7%—0.050.0%20.6%
13Max LipacisFJr6'7"6-02.30.00.20.00.00.0%—0.00.0%6.1%
28Arlan MasharaliyevGFr6'0"5-01.60.20.80.00.00.0%0.0%0.650.0%28.0%
11Josue GrullonGSr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
La SalleBucknell
Efficiency
105.2
101.2
110.0
111.7
67.3
68.1
—
—
Shooting
45.4%
48.5%
45.6%
50.4%
30.0%
30.6%
72.5%
76.8%
37.5%
29.8%
Ball control & glass
18.2%
19.0%
17.1%
17.9%
33.7%
27.0%
32.4%
31.3%
10.1%
11.1%
12.2%
11.5%
Style
31.5%
42.7%
46.1%
43.4%
11.4%
9.9%
56.0%
54.0%
34.8%
24.0%
Roster
2.85
2.30
6'5.5"
6'4.5"
96.7%
92.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
La Salle
Returning minutes: 96.7%Returning production: 97.7%
Lost
  • Nas Hart 6.6 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Quinnipiac
Added
  • Josue Grullon no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bucknell
Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%
Lost
  • Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami
Added
  • Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.