CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceHinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

Butler

Efficiency #87

2025-26: 16-16 · 7-14 conf

Fri, Nov 27 · TBD

73.8

win 17%

Projected

85.1

win 83%

No line posted yet.

Model: BTLR −11.3 · total 158.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Butler 69.3, Bellarmine 66.5 → 67.5 possessions

−1.7

Butler offense vs Bellarmine defense

+9.9

Bellarmine offense vs Butler defense

+2.5

Projected total

158.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Butler offense vs Bellarmine defense

+9.9

Bellarmine offense vs Butler defense

−2.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Butler by 11.3

11.3

Bellarmine side ◂▸ Butler side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Butler.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Butler is the faster team (70.0, #95 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

158.9

model

Projected team totals

73.8 / 85.1

Bellarmine / Butler

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#319

Bellarmine

69.3#97

Butler

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); Butler allows 51.9% (#208). Expect about 56.3%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageButler

Where Butler scores: shooting

Butler shoots an effective 50.9% (#199); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 55.2%, 3.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.6 points per 100 possessions.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 24.7% is worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

GlassButler

Butler owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.2% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Butler's offense.

ClashButler

Style match: ball movement

Butler assists on 57.2% of its made baskets; Bellarmine allows assists on 61.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.7% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversBellarmine

Bellarmine protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Bellarmine's offense.

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseButler allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

51.9% #208

+7.2 pt/100

15.5% #104

15.1% #275

+2.2 pt/100

22.4% #354

30.0% #163

-3.5 pt/100

35.0% #178

24.9% #6

-0.8 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.7 pts/100

Butler has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

50.9% #199

59.4% #365

+5.6 pt/100

15.9% #132

15.0% #287

+2.0 pt/100

34.6% #58

34.2% #320

+2.9 pt/100

42.1% #29

34.3% #157

+0.4 pt/100

71.9% #210

—

-0.0 pt/100

Butler net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmineoffense vsButlerdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

Butler allows

38.3

7.0

16.9

37.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	62.3%#305	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	47.7%#337	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	33.6%#39	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	33.3%#141	33.7%

Butleroffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

Butler shoots

45.1

6.1

14.4

34.3

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.3%#216	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.9%#225	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	32.7%#242	40.4%#364	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Butler

+5.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365

Off reb %

34.6%

#58

Def reb %

70.0%

#163

Turnover %

15.9%

#132

Forced TO %

15.1%

#275

FT rate

42.1%

#29

FT allowed

24.9%

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.3

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.6

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+2.7

Butler has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.5 (#16 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Butler2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Finley Bizjack	G	Jr	6'4"	31-31	34.0	17.1	2.2	2.5	1.7	51.4%	34.9%	6.3	85.0%	27.9%
7	Jamie Kaiser Jr.	G	So	6'6"	30-29	29.0	9.5	4.3	1.0	0.7	52.4%	34.5%	3.9	75.8%	18.3%
21	Yohan Traore	F	Sr	6'11"	32-0	19.6	8.3	3.0	0.8	0.6	55.5%	20.0%	0.5	70.9%	21.8%
13	Drayton Jones	C	Jr	6'11"	32-32	19.5	6.3	4.6	1.4	0.7	58.6%	0.0%	0.0	72.0%	16.9%
1	Evan Haywood	G	So	6'4"	29-3	19.4	7.2	1.9	1.2	0.4	49.7%	35.9%	5.3	75.0%	22.1%
8	Yame Butler	G	Sr	6'5"	31-2	13.6	4.2	1.2	1.4	0.7	50.5%	28.9%	1.2	74.3%	18.9%
4	Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor	F	Fr	6'6"	25-10	16.4	5.0	2.2	2.0	1.4	41.9%	10.5%	0.8	62.1%	24.0%
23	Azavier Robinson	G	Fr	6'2"	22-15	18.3	6.1	1.9	2.5	1.9	53.5%	43.3%	1.4	71.1%	22.6%
0	Jackson Keith	F	Fr	6'5"	26-0	8.6	2.0	1.7	0.2	0.2	50.0%	29.4%	0.7	57.1%	13.6%
2	Jalen Jackson	G	Sr	6'2"	6-6	22.5	9.5	3.5	3.8	3.0	53.5%	40.0%	0.8	57.9%	27.6%
6	Jack McCaffery	F	Fr	6'9"	9-0	9.6	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.4	47.5%	21.4%	1.6	75.0%	17.3%
3	Ethan McComb	G	Jr	6'1"	6-0	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	7.7%
35	Bryson Cardinal	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
39	Kevin Ndzie	C	Jr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

Butler

Against the spread

Season

16-15-1

Home

8-8-1

Road

6-5

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −2.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-12-1

Home

9-7-1

Road

8-3

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.9

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	N	L 81–91	+2.0	L−8.0	162.5	O172	111.6	125.4	72.6
Mar 7	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 81–71	+4.0	W+14.0	142.5	O152	110.4	96.8	73.4
Mar 4	CreightonAdjEM #92	H	L 59–76	−2.5	L−19.5	155.5	U135	83.4	107.4	70.8
Feb 25	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 73–82	+10.5	W+1.5	147.0	O155	103.9	116.7	70.2
Feb 21	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 80–75	−4.5	W+0.5	159.5	U155	117.7	110.4	67.9
Feb 18	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 93–89	+6.0	W+10.0	147.0	O182	136.4	130.5	68.2
Feb 15	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	L 56–63	+4.0	L−3.0	138.5	U119	83.6	94.1	67.0
Feb 11	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 70–80	+11.5	W+1.5	143.5	O150	115.8	132.4	60.4
Feb 7	MarquetteAdjEM #100	A	L 55–70	+3.5	L−11.5	155.5	U125	82.2	104.6	66.9
Feb 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	L 87–97 2OT	+3.0	L−7.0	168.5	O184	110.4	123.0	78.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BellarmineButler

Efficiency

113.2

112.2

119.4

107.4

66.5

69.3

—

Shooting

59.4%

50.9%

61.0%

51.9%

38.1%

32.7%

78.8%

71.9%

35.0%

42.1%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

15.9%

15.0%

15.1%

22.4%

34.6%

34.2%

30.0%

9.1%

9.5%

9.1%

11.9%

Style

41.2%

34.9%

47.0%

46.6%

9.2%

15.0%

53.4%

57.2%

28.4%

32.1%

Roster

2.70

2.54

6'5.8"

6'6.1"

93.7%

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Butler

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.3%

Lost

Michael Ajayi 33.6 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryson Cardinal no D1 minutes last season
Kevin Ndzie no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.