CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteBender Arena, Washington, DCCapital Thanksgiving Classic

Hampton

Efficiency #268

2025-26: 13-19 · 7-12 conf

UMass Lowell

Efficiency #308

2025-26: 15-18 · 10-8 conf

Fri, Nov 27 · 1:00 PM ET

74.2

win 56%

Projected

72.5

win 44%

No line posted yet.

Model: HAMP −1.7 · total 146.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: UMass Lowell 69.5, Hampton 67.0 → 68.3 possessions

−0.1

UMass Lowell offense vs Hampton defense

−1.6

Hampton offense vs UMass Lowell defense

+0.2

Projected total

146.7

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

UMass Lowell offense vs Hampton defense

−1.6

Hampton offense vs UMass Lowell defense

−0.2

Hampton by 1.7

1.7

Hampton side ◂▸ UMass Lowell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −1.8 against −1.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UMass Lowell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UMass Lowell is the faster team (68.9, #157 of 365) and Hampton the slower (66.0, #297). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.7

model

Projected team totals

74.2 / 72.5

Hampton / UMass Lowell

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#286

Hampton

69.5#80

UMass Lowell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashUMass Lowell

Style match: 3-point volume

UMass Lowell rarely shoots threes (31.3% of its shots); Hampton runs teams off the line (33.6% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 29.1% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageHampton

Where Hampton struggles: shooting

Hampton shoots an effective 45.7% (#356); UMass Lowell allows 53.5% (#284). Expect about 49.2%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Hampton) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Hampton at about 34.7% of its shots from three, UMass Lowell about 29.1%.

TurnoversHampton

Hampton protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for Hampton's offense.

ClashUMass Lowell

Style match: paint scoring

UMass Lowell scores 51.8% of its points in the paint; Hampton gives up 46.5% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.3% — both habits push the same way.

Hampton has the ball

OffenseUMass Lowell allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #356

53.5% #284

-3.0 pt/100

17.0% #206

14.2% #329

+1.8 pt/100

32.9% #90

29.4% #126

+0.7 pt/100

39.2% #73

28.3% #34

-0.2 pt/100

72.5% #191

—

+0.0 pt/100

Hampton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.6 pts/100

UMass Lowell has the ball

OffenseHampton allowsvs D1 avg

49.8% #247

52.0% #212

-0.7 pt/100

18.0% #271

17.2% #135

-1.2 pt/100

32.7% #98

30.0% #165

+0.9 pt/100

34.9% #183

46.5% #355

+0.8 pt/100

65.7% #355

—

-0.6 pt/100

UMass Lowell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Hamptonoffense vsUMass Lowelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Hampton shoots

37.0

6.6

21.2

35.2

UMass Lowell allows

45.4

4.3

15.6

34.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.5%#286	58.2%#153	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	27.7%#358	41.2%#213	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#167	43.1%#330	38.0%
Three	28.8%#357	34.6%#226	33.7%

UMass Lowelloffense vsHamptondefense

Share of shots by zone

UMass Lowell shoots

47.5

6.4

14.7

31.4

Hampton allows

40.7

7.6

17.8

33.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#326	64.3%#344	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.5%#18	41.4%#223	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#166	35.4%#85	38.0%
Three	32.2%#269	32.1%#65	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Hampton

−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#210 of 365

Off reb %

32.9%

#90

Def reb %

70.0%

#165

Turnover %

17.0%

#206

Forced TO %

17.2%

#135

FT rate

39.2%

#73

FT allowed

46.5%

#355

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers+0.3

Foul shots drawn+1.1

Foul shots allowed−2.9

UMass Lowell

+0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#167 of 365

Off reb %

32.7%

#98

Def reb %

70.6%

#126

Turnover %

18.0%

#271

Forced TO %

14.2%

#329

FT rate

34.9%

#183

FT allowed

28.3%

#34

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.7

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.8

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+1.8

UMass Lowell has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.3 (#167 of 365) to Hampton’s −0.7 (#210).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Hampton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Xzavier Long	F	Sr	6'7"	30-27	34.6	9.8	9.6	1.9	2.0	46.4%	25.0%	2.8	67.7%	20.0%
11	Daniel Johnson	G	So	6'7"	32-29	25.1	10.0	5.0	0.7	0.9	45.7%	31.9%	3.6	73.0%	27.2%
2	Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt	G	Jr	6'0"	29-23	26.2	11.2	1.4	3.0	2.3	43.9%	26.4%	2.5	76.8%	29.9%
5	Etienne Strothers	G	So	6'2"	32-15	18.8	6.2	1.7	1.7	1.2	44.4%	31.7%	2.6	76.2%	23.6%
23	Josh Ogundele	F	Sr	7'0"	27-22	17.6	6.7	3.5	0.6	1.1	56.8%	40.0%	0.4	60.8%	23.8%
0	Kody Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	29-8	16.0	2.7	1.0	1.6	0.6	35.8%	22.9%	1.7	72.7%	15.0%
3	Michael Eley	G	Sr	6'4"	23-10	19.2	13.0	3.4	0.7	0.7	54.3%	30.9%	4.1	88.2%	36.2%
1	Christian Watson	G	Sr	6'6"	25-6	17.6	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.9	44.1%	27.1%	1.9	79.2%	23.8%
15	Eunique Rink	F	So	6'10"	30-7	11.7	1.9	1.9	0.2	0.4	63.4%	—	0.0	42.9%	10.1%
13	Aidan Haskins	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.2	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.2	51.7%	39.7%	2.2	50.0%	17.1%
8	Elijah Kennedy	G	Sr	6'4"	22-5	13.0	4.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	50.0%	29.4%	1.5	57.1%	24.3%
24	Quintin Cooper	G	Fr	6'2"	27-3	8.6	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.5	39.7%	16.1%	1.1	56.3%	34.1%
12	Peter Oduro	F	Sr	6'8"	24-2	6.4	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.1	28.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
22	Kellan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.4	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.3	50.0%	42.9%	0.8	42.9%	20.6%
30	Hamza Asadallah	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	3.4	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	—	12.8%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

UMass Lowell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Xavier Spencer	G	Jr	6'1"	33-33	33.9	11.9	4.4	2.9	1.9	52.0%	34.9%	4.4	77.3%	21.8%
3	Darrel Yepdo	G	Jr	6'0"	33-33	31.4	10.3	3.1	3.2	2.3	48.0%	36.3%	4.4	75.0%	22.8%
9	Angel Montas Jr.	G	Jr	6'6"	30-23	29.2	15.8	5.1	1.7	1.8	55.0%	31.3%	3.2	64.4%	31.6%
10	Austin Green	F	Sr	6'8"	27-26	27.4	13.2	8.0	1.2	1.3	56.7%	0.0%	0.1	60.9%	26.6%
13	Shawn Simmons II	F	Jr	6'6"	27-26	25.7	6.7	5.1	1.1	1.4	51.1%	33.3%	0.8	66.2%	17.3%
23	Victor Okojie	F	Fr	6'8"	29-6	18.1	5.0	4.8	0.7	0.9	45.7%	28.8%	1.8	55.1%	19.6%
55	JJ Massaquoi	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	16.7	8.5	2.8	0.4	1.1	50.5%	8.3%	0.4	66.2%	31.1%
14	Jared Frey	G	Jr	6'6"	25-10	13.6	4.0	1.2	1.2	0.6	50.0%	32.7%	2.1	100.0%	17.3%
6	Isaiah Walter	G	Fr	6'7"	13-0	9.2	3.0	1.5	0.9	1.2	40.6%	11.1%	1.4	68.4%	25.6%
15	Jerrell Roberson II	F	Jr	6'9"	12-0	7.8	3.4	2.4	0.0	0.5	53.6%	—	0.0	55.0%	24.8%
2	Keenan Bey	F	Fr	6'7"	8-0	5.8	1.3	0.9	0.5	0.1	58.3%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	11.6%
1	Kris Johnson	G	Fr	6'5"	6-0	6.5	1.7	0.3	0.2	0.2	30.0%	0.0%	0.3	100.0%	18.3%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Hampton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Xzavier Long	F	Sr	6'7"	30-27	34.6	9.8	9.6	1.9	2.0	46.4%	25.0%	2.8	67.7%	20.0%
11	Daniel Johnson	G	So	6'7"	32-29	25.1	10.0	5.0	0.7	0.9	45.7%	31.9%	3.6	73.0%	27.2%
2	Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt	G	Jr	6'0"	29-23	26.2	11.2	1.4	3.0	2.3	43.9%	26.4%	2.5	76.8%	29.9%
5	Etienne Strothers	G	So	6'2"	32-15	18.8	6.2	1.7	1.7	1.2	44.4%	31.7%	2.6	76.2%	23.6%
23	Josh Ogundele	F	Sr	7'0"	27-22	17.6	6.7	3.5	0.6	1.1	56.8%	40.0%	0.4	60.8%	23.8%
0	Kody Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	29-8	16.0	2.7	1.0	1.6	0.6	35.8%	22.9%	1.7	72.7%	15.0%
3	Michael Eley	G	Sr	6'4"	23-10	19.2	13.0	3.4	0.7	0.7	54.3%	30.9%	4.1	88.2%	36.2%
1	Christian Watson	G	Sr	6'6"	25-6	17.6	6.0	2.0	1.0	0.9	44.1%	27.1%	1.9	79.2%	23.8%
15	Eunique Rink	F	So	6'10"	30-7	11.7	1.9	1.9	0.2	0.4	63.4%	—	0.0	42.9%	10.1%
13	Aidan Haskins	F	Fr	6'8"	29-3	11.2	3.1	1.4	0.6	0.2	51.7%	39.7%	2.2	50.0%	17.1%
8	Elijah Kennedy	G	Sr	6'4"	22-5	13.0	4.9	1.9	0.9	0.4	50.0%	29.4%	1.5	57.1%	24.3%
24	Quintin Cooper	G	Fr	6'2"	27-3	8.6	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.5	39.7%	16.1%	1.1	56.3%	34.1%
12	Peter Oduro	F	Sr	6'8"	24-2	6.4	0.6	1.0	0.1	0.1	28.6%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	10.3%
22	Kellan Lewis	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	5.4	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.3	50.0%	42.9%	0.8	42.9%	20.6%
30	Hamza Asadallah	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	3.4	0.8	0.9	0.3	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	0.6	—	12.8%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Hampton

Against the spread

Season

17-12-1

Home

8-2

Road

7-6-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −3.4

Covered 3 straightCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-16-1

Home

4-5-1

Road

5-9

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.4

Over 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	TowsonAdjEM #149	N	L 68–74	+7.5	W+1.5	132.0	O142	100.1	108.9	67.9
Mar 3	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 85–94	+11.5	W+2.5	154.0	O179	117.9	130.3	72.1
Feb 28	NortheasternAdjEM #274	H	W 76–65	−4.5	W+6.5	146.5	U141	115.2	98.6	65.9
Feb 26	CharlestonAdjEM #165	H	L 71–85	+5.5	L−8.5	139.5	O156	103.8	124.3	68.4
Feb 21	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 72–79	+5.0	L−2.0	135.5	O151	104.5	114.6	68.9
Feb 19	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 43–79	+11.0	L−25.0	133.5	U122	70.5	129.5	61.0
Feb 13	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	L 70–71	−3.0	L−4.0	138.0	O141	105.6	107.1	66.3
Feb 7	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	W 77–74	+5.5	W+8.5	152.0	U151	107.7	103.6	71.5
Feb 5	ElonAdjEM #228	H	W 87–79 2OT	+1.5	W+9.5	142.5	O166	110.2	100.1	78.9
Jan 31	TowsonAdjEM #149	A	L 50–82	+9.0	L−23.0	133.5	U132	76.1	124.8	65.7

UMass Lowell

Against the spread

Season

16-14

Home

7-4

Road

9-10

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +0.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16

Home

6-5

Road

8-11

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.4

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 69–91	+7.0	L−15.0	148.0	O160	101.7	134.1	67.8
Mar 7	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 81–76	−3.0	W+2.0	147.5	O157	120.1	112.7	67.5
Mar 3	MaineAdjEM #335	A	W 67–56	−1.0	W+10.0	140.5	U123	102.0	85.2	65.7
Feb 28	UMBCAdjEM #147	H	L 60–84	+2.0	L−22.0	151.5	U144	91.7	128.4	65.4
Feb 26	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 64–66	+9.0	W+7.0	146.5	U130	98.4	101.5	65.0
Feb 21	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	W 92–79	−9.0	W+4.0	146.5	O171	142.1	122.0	64.7
Feb 19	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 78–56	−3.5	W+18.5	151.0	U134	110.7	79.5	70.5
Feb 12	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 88–69	−4.5	W+14.5	142.0	O157	134.7	105.6	65.3
Feb 7	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	A	W 89–79	+3.5	W+13.5	145.0	O168	128.0	113.6	69.5
Feb 5	NJITAdjEM #331	A	L 56–81	+1.0	L−24.0	149.0	U137	82.1	118.7	68.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

HamptonUMass Lowell

Efficiency

104.2

105.1

109.5

113.0

67.0

69.5

—

Shooting

45.7%

49.8%

47.1%

50.5%

28.8%

32.2%

72.5%

65.7%

39.2%

34.9%

Ball control & glass

17.0%

18.0%

17.2%

14.2%

32.9%

32.7%

30.0%

29.4%

9.3%

11.9%

11.8%

10.4%

Style

37.1%

31.3%

39.9%

51.8%

15.5%

11.9%

48.9%

45.4%

39.9%

25.5%

Roster

3.04

2.72

6'5.1"

6'4.6"

—

92.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Hampton

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Hampton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UMass Lowell

Returning minutes: 92.9%Returning production: 96.0%

Lost

Khalil Farmer 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to Rider

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.