CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAllen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS

Villanova

Efficiency #40

2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf

Kansas

Efficiency #25

2025-26: 24-11 · 13-7 conf

Fri, Nov 27 · TBD

68.6

win 31%

Projected

74.5

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: KU −5.9 · total 143.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas 68.5, Villanova 66.8 → 67.0 possessions

−2.9

Kansas offense vs Villanova defense

0.0

Villanova offense vs Kansas defense

−2.1

Projected total

143.2

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kansas offense vs Villanova defense

0.0

Villanova offense vs Kansas defense

+2.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Kansas by 5.9

5.9

Villanova side ◂▸ Kansas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.0 against +5.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas is the faster team (68.3, #181 of 365) and Villanova the slower (66.5, #269). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.2

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 74.5

Villanova / Kansas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.8#302

Villanova

68.5#170

Kansas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVillanova

Where Villanova scores: ball control

Villanova turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#66); Kansas forces turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions (#339). Expect about 13.9%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVillanova

Strength vs strength: shot-blocking exposure

Villanova (#21 in shot-blocking exposure) against Kansas (#6 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 12.8%. Historically Kansas's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.41 vs 0.68).

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Villanova at about 46.0% of its shots from three, Kansas about 34.3%.

ClashVillanova

Style clash: ball movement

Villanova assists on 56.8% of its made baskets; Kansas breaks up passing offenses (assists on 47.3% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

Villanova has the ball

OffenseKansas allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #74

45.0% #2

-2.5 pt/100

15.0% #66

13.8% #339

+3.5 pt/100

32.2% #118

29.9% #152

+0.6 pt/100

30.9% #284

27.4% #26

-0.8 pt/100

68.9% #302

—

-0.3 pt/100

Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.6 pts/100

Kansas has the ball

OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #186

51.4% #181

+0.1 pt/100

15.6% #109

18.6% #69

-0.6 pt/100

29.2% #227

31.8% #246

-0.1 pt/100

32.2% #255

30.0% #59

-0.5 pt/100

76.7% #37

—

+0.4 pt/100

Kansas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Villanovaoffense vsKansasdefense

Share of shots by zone

Villanova shoots

34.9

6.0

13.6

45.6

Kansas allows

32.7

10.4

15.6

41.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.6%#81	51.3%#10	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#91	37.6%#127	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#280	31.9%#16	38.0%
Three	35.7%#77	30.6%#24	33.7%

Kansasoffense vsVillanovadefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas shoots

35.9

9.4

20.3

34.4

Villanova allows

37.3

6.9

19.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	63.0%#51	60.9%#267	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.3%#283	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.2%#259	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	34.6%#139	33.4%#148	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Villanova

+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#118

Def reb %

68.2%

#246

Turnover %

15.0%

#66

Forced TO %

18.6%

#69

FT rate

30.9%

#284

FT allowed

30.0%

#59

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Kansas

0.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#180 of 365

Off reb %

29.2%

#227

Def reb %

70.1%

#152

Turnover %

15.6%

#109

Forced TO %

13.8%

#339

FT rate

32.2%

#255

FT allowed

27.4%

#26

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+0.8

Forcing turnovers−2.0

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+2.0

Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to Kansas’s 0.0 (#180).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Jamari McDowell	G	So	6'5"	35-7	17.3	3.3	1.6	1.1	0.5	51.0%	34.9%	2.5	62.5%	12.5%
13	Elmarko Jackson	G	So	6'3"	34-1	17.7	4.8	1.8	1.4	1.0	44.4%	37.2%	1.3	82.5%	18.4%
7	Kohl Rosario	G	Fr	6'6"	29-6	11.6	3.4	1.3	0.4	0.4	52.9%	28.6%	2.2	75.0%	17.9%
1	Jayden Dawson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-1	9.6	2.1	0.6	0.6	0.1	42.6%	27.9%	1.8	100.0%	14.8%
34	Paul Mbiya	C	Fr	7'0"	21-0	5.1	1.2	1.4	0.0	0.1	68.8%	—	0.0	36.4%	12.6%
6	Samis Calderon	F	Fr	6'8"	15-0	4.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	0.3	33.3%	0.0%	0.2	33.3%	11.7%
0	Nginyu Ngala	G	Sr	5'10"	11-0	3.5	1.5	0.6	0.3	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	0.7	100.0%	23.7%
12	Wilder Evers	G	Jr	6'4"	6-1	3.2	1.3	0.3	0.0	0.5	80.0%	50.0%	0.7	—	23.2%
25	Justin Cross	F	Sr	6'8"	5-1	2.6	0.0	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.0%	—	0.0	—	16.8%
21	Will Thengvall	G	So	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	7.0%
2	Corbin Allen	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Villanova

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-3-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.4

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-13

Home

11-6

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.5

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 76–86	+2.0	L−8.0	147.5	O162	111.5	126.2	68.1
Mar 12	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 64–78	−6.5	L−20.5	141.0	O142	99.4	121.1	64.4
Mar 7	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 91–78	−13.5	L−0.5	154.0	O169	128.2	109.9	71.0
Mar 4	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 76–57	−2.0	W+17.0	136.5	U133	108.2	81.1	70.3
Feb 28	#15St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 57–89	+7.5	L−24.5	148.0	U146	78.6	122.8	72.5
Feb 25	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 82–73	−10.5	L−1.5	147.0	O155	116.7	103.9	70.2
Feb 21	#5UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 63–73	+3.0	L−7.0	141.0	U136	100.1	116.0	62.9
Feb 17	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 92–89 OT	−4.0	L−1.0	153.5	O181	116.7	112.9	78.8
Feb 14	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 80–69	−2.5	W+8.5	146.0	O149	115.3	99.5	69.4
Feb 10	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 77–74	−9.5	L−6.5	145.0	O151	109.8	105.5	70.1

Kansas

Against the spread

Season

20-14-1

Home

10-5

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −5.2

Covered the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-24

Home

6-9

Road

3-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.9

Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#5St John'sAdjEM #16	N	L 65–67	+3.5	W+1.5	145.5	U132	92.7	95.5	70.2
Mar 20	#13CA BaptistAdjEM #102	N	W 68–60	−14.0	L−6.0	142.0	U128	98.1	86.5	69.3
Mar 13	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	N	L 47–69	+5.5	L−16.5	138.0	U116	79.3	116.4	59.3
Mar 12	TCUAdjEM #51	N	W 78–73	−5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	104.6	97.9	74.6
Mar 7	Kansas StAdjEM #128	H	W 104–85	−17.5	W+1.5	157.0	O189	133.2	108.9	78.0
Mar 3	Arizona StAdjEM #93	A	L 60–70	−6.0	L−16.0	150.0	U130	82.8	96.7	72.4
Feb 28	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 61–84	+10.0	L−13.0	151.5	U145	88.2	121.4	69.2
Feb 23	#5HoustonAdjEM #6	H	W 69–56	+2.5	W+15.5	138.0	U125	106.3	86.3	64.9
Feb 21	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	L 68–84	−9.0	L−25.0	139.0	O152	100.5	124.2	67.7
Feb 18	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	A	W 81–69	−6.5	W+5.5	159.5	U150	115.2	98.2	70.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

VillanovaKansas

Efficiency

115.0

112.9

104.1

98.9

66.8

68.5

—

Shooting

53.8%

51.2%

54.0%

50.9%

35.7%

34.6%

68.9%

76.7%

30.9%

32.2%

Ball control & glass

15.0%

15.6%

18.6%

13.8%

32.2%

29.2%

31.8%

29.9%

7.6%

9.5%

7.3%

8.1%

Style

45.7%

35.2%

40.3%

44.7%

11.7%

13.8%

56.8%

52.3%

27.3%

25.2%

Roster

2.09

2.04

6'5.5"

6'4.9"

58.6%

28.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Villanova

Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%

Lost

Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Kansas

Returning minutes: 28.8%Returning production: 18.1%

Lost

Melvin Council Jr. 34.8 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Flory Bidunga 31.6 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Louisville
Tre White 31.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryson Tiller 25.9 mpg, 7.9 ppg · transferred to Missouri
Darryn Peterson 19.9 mpg, 13.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Corbin Allen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.