CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceDavid S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex, Hempstead, NYThe Island Invitational
Colgate
Efficiency #223
2025-26: 18-15 · 12-8 conf
@
Hofstra
Efficiency #69
2025-26: 24-11 · 15-6 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · 3:30 PM ET
67.9
win 19%
Projected
78.1
win 81%
No line posted yet.
Model: HOF −10.2 · total 145.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Hofstra 66.5, Colgate 68.0 → 66.2 possessions
−4.6
Hofstra offense vs Colgate defense
+4.4
Colgate offense vs Hofstra defense
−2.0
Projected total
145.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Hofstra offense vs Colgate defense
+4.4
Colgate offense vs Hofstra defense
+2.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Hofstra by 10.2
10.2
Colgate side ◂▸ Hofstra side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.0 against a projected 145.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Hofstra.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Colgate is the faster team (66.9, #246 of 365) and Hofstra the slower (65.4, #319). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.9
model
Projected team totals
67.9 / 78.1
Colgate / Hofstra
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#213
Colgate
66.5#318
Hofstra
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Half-court grind
Hofstra averages 65.4 possessions per 40, Colgate 66.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageColgate
Where Colgate scores: ball control
Colgate turns it over on 14.6% of possessions (#47); Hofstra forces turnovers on 14.9% of opponent possessions (#292). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Hofstra) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Colgate at about 36.9% of its shots from three, Hofstra about 43.6%.
AdvantageHofstra
Where Hofstra scores: ball control
Hofstra turns it over on 16.1% of possessions (#149); Colgate forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#266). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
GlassHofstra
Hofstra owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 32.9% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for Hofstra's offense.
Colgate has the ball
OffenseHofstra allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #91
46.3% #14
-2.0 pt/100
14.6% #47
14.9% #292
+2.9 pt/100
26.6% #309
31.0% #201
-1.5 pt/100
29.7% #316
35.1% #182
-0.3 pt/100
74.7% #97
—
+0.2 pt/100
Colgate net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100
Hofstra has the ball
OffenseColgate allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #178
52.2% #224
+0.8 pt/100
16.1% #149
15.3% #266
+1.6 pt/100
34.7% #54
29.3% #125
+1.5 pt/100
31.6% #264
33.8% #145
-0.3 pt/100
75.8% #56
—
+0.3 pt/100
Hofstra net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.9 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersColgateoffense vsHofstradefense
Share of shots by zone
Colgate shoots
37.9
6.0
21.2
34.9
Hofstra allows
33.3
5.8
20.4
40.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#155 | 51.9%#15 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.3%#98 | 22.3%#1 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 44.8%#18 | 39.7%#229 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.6%#81 | 32.3%#78 | 33.7% |
Hofstraoffense vsColgatedefense
Share of shots by zone
Hofstra shoots
31.3
6.5
19.6
42.6
Colgate allows
38.5
6.2
13.8
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.2%#267 | 59.1%#193 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 39.5%#186 | 39.3%#163 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#226 | 38.5%#178 | 38.0% |
| Three | 37.1%#25 | 34.8%#238 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersColgate
−1.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#247 of 365
Off reb %
26.6%
#309
Def reb %
70.7%
#125
Turnover %
14.6%
#47
Forced TO %
15.3%
#266
FT rate
29.7%
#316
FT allowed
33.8%
#145
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed+0.4
Hofstra
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#191 of 365
Off reb %
34.7%
#54
Def reb %
69.0%
#201
Turnover %
16.1%
#149
Forced TO %
14.9%
#292
FT rate
31.6%
#264
FT allowed
35.1%
#182
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed0.0
Hofstra has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.3 (#191 of 365) to Colgate’s −1.3 (#247).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Hofstra2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruz Davis | G | Jr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 37.9 | 20.1 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 51.6% | 40.0% | 5.9 | 83.0% | 32.7% | |
| 1 | Preston Edmead | G | Fr | 6'1" | 35-35 | 33.9 | 16.1 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 51.7% | 38.7% | 7.1 | 83.3% | 29.2% | |
| 25 | German Plotnikov | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 32.3 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 54.9% | 38.1% | 4.7 | 85.1% | 16.7% | |
| 4 | Joshua DeCady | F | So | 6'8" | 33-23 | 24.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 46.2% | 28.1% | 1.7 | 57.7% | 18.2% | |
| 33 | Silas Sunday | F | Sr | 7'0" | 35-18 | 19.7 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 65.3% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 64.9% | 15.8% | |
| 0 | Biggie Patterson | G | Sr | 6'7" | 31-14 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 31.5% | 3.6 | 74.6% | 29.4% | |
| 6 | Victory Onuetu | F | Jr | 6'10" | 35-17 | 17.9 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 56.6% | — | 0.0 | 49.0% | 17.6% | |
| 15 | Joshua Aaron Reaves | G | Sr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 10.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 34.9% | 1.9 | 83.3% | 14.2% | |
| 7 | Jaeden Roberts | G | Fr | 6'3" | 23-0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 56.3% | 41.2% | 2.2 | 50.0% | 28.5% | |
| 2 | A.J. Wills | G | Jr | 6'0" | 17-0 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 45.7% | 33.3% | 1.6 | 80.0% | 22.0% | |
| 17 | Alex Tsynkevich | C | Sr | 6'10" | 16-0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 13.1% | |
| 11 | Amir Williams | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | — | 17.4% | |
| 55 | Brandon Morgan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Carlos Lopez | G | Jr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Trey Boyd III | G | Jr | 6'4" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Colgate2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jalen Cox | G | Jr | 6'3" | 31-31 | 34.2 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 54.5% | 36.5% | 1.7 | 85.0% | 30.5% | |
| 22 | Andrew Alekseyenko | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-33 | 29.7 | 14.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 55.4% | 38.3% | 3.2 | 78.1% | 30.2% | |
| 33 | Sam Wright | F | Jr | 6'9" | 33-33 | 25.6 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 55.9% | 31.2% | 3.8 | 60.2% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | Josh Ahayere | G | So | 6'3" | 32-24 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 55.1% | 36.9% | 2.0 | 74.0% | 17.5% | |
| 13 | Kyle Carlesimo | G | Sr | 6'2" | 33-2 | 24.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.7% | 36.0% | 5.0 | 84.6% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | Cooper Wright | F | Jr | 6'5" | 30-0 | 12.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 61.5% | — | 0.0 | 30.0% | 8.8% | |
| 15 | Ayomi Odetoyinbo | F | Fr | 6'10" | 33-0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 57.4% | 0.0% | 0.0 | 54.5% | 12.1% | |
| 1 | Brady Cummins | G | Sr | 6'6" | 18-9 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 40.8% | 34.3% | 1.9 | 90.0% | 18.4% | |
| 0 | Ethan Brown | F | So | 6'10" | 17-0 | 7.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 31.6% | 25.0% | 0.5 | 82.4% | 15.4% | |
| 9 | Cameron Brennan | F | So | 7'0" | 13-0 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 100.0% | 23.5% | |
| 5 | Charlie Pugh | G | Fr | 6'4" | 8-0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 66.7% | 50.0% | 0.5 | — | 15.6% | |
| 8 | Jonathan Niv | G | Fr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 0.6 | 100.0% | 26.5% | |
| 2 | Blake Forrest | G | So | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Parker Jones | G | Jr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 7 | Stevie Clark | G | So | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Colgate
Against the spread
Season
12-19
Home
4-9
Road
7-9
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −4.3
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
17-14
Home
9-4
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +5.8
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8 | Lehigh | A | L 69–76 | −2.0 | L−9.0 | 146.0 | U145 | 100.7 | 110.9 | 68.5 |
| Mar 5 | Loyola MD | H | W 90–77 | −5.5 | W+7.5 | 154.0 | O167 | 139.5 | 119.4 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Navy | A | L 69–85 | +6.5 | L−9.5 | 142.0 | O154 | 103.7 | 127.8 | 66.5 |
| Feb 25 | Lafayette | H | L 69–70 | −8.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U139 | 110.6 | 112.2 | 62.4 |
| Feb 21 | Loyola MD | H | W 101–98 OT | −8.5 | L−5.5 | 149.5 | O199 | 115.7 | 112.3 | 87.3 |
| Feb 16 | Boston U | A | L 58–85 | −2.0 | L−29.0 | 146.0 | U143 | 101.3 | 148.4 | 57.3 |
| Feb 14 | Navy | H | L 80–84 OT | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 139.0 | O164 | 111.8 | 117.4 | 71.6 |
| Feb 11 | Holy Cross | A | W 74–70 | −8.0 | L−4.0 | 143.0 | O144 | 108.1 | 102.3 | 68.5 |
| Feb 7 | Bucknell | A | W 78–59 | −5.0 | W+14.0 | 141.5 | U137 | 106.3 | 80.4 | 73.4 |
| Feb 4 | Army | H | W 69–55 | −10.0 | W+4.0 | 149.5 | U124 | 107.3 | 85.6 | 64.3 |
Hofstra
Against the spread
Season
21-12
Home
6-4
Road
11-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +5.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
16-15-2
Home
2-8
Road
11-6
Last 10
4-5-1
avg vs total −4.9
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #4Alabama | N | L 70–90 | +11.5 | L−8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 100.4 | 129.1 | 69.7 |
| Mar 10 | Monmouth | N | W 75–69 | −4.0 | W+2.0 | 135.0 | O144 | 113.0 | 103.9 | 66.4 |
| Mar 9 | Towson | N | W 68–65 OT | −4.0 | L−1.0 | 131.5 | O133 | 111.7 | 106.8 | 60.9 |
| Mar 8 | William & Mary | N | W 92–61 | −2.5 | W+28.5 | 153.0 | P153 | 140.0 | 92.8 | 65.7 |
| Mar 3 | Drexel | H | W 62–51 | −8.5 | W+2.5 | 133.0 | U113 | 109.3 | 89.9 | 56.7 |
| Feb 28 | Stony Brook | H | W 67–58 | −11.5 | L−2.5 | 139.5 | U125 | 96.8 | 83.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Northeastern | A | W 82–68 | −7.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | O150 | 128.0 | 106.1 | 64.1 |
| Feb 19 | Hampton | H | W 79–43 | −11.0 | W+25.0 | 133.5 | U122 | 129.5 | 70.5 | 61.0 |
| Feb 14 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 66–70 | +2.5 | L−1.5 | 137.5 | U136 | 108.2 | 114.7 | 61.0 |
| Feb 12 | Charleston | A | W 66–62 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 146.0 | U128 | 94.0 | 88.3 | 70.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeColgateHofstra
Efficiency
108.6
112.4
111.2
105.3
68.0
66.5
—
—
Shooting
53.3%
51.4%
53.2%
48.1%
35.6%
37.1%
74.7%
75.8%
29.7%
31.6%
Ball control & glass
14.6%
16.1%
15.3%
14.9%
26.6%
34.7%
29.3%
31.0%
8.4%
7.7%
6.3%
10.7%
Style
35.0%
42.8%
44.4%
35.9%
12.6%
9.0%
51.4%
48.3%
29.0%
25.2%
Roster
2.54
2.88
6'5.6"
6'5.4"
85.6%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputColgate
Returning minutes: 85.6%Returning production: 88.2%
Lost
- Ben Tweedy 29.4 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Manhattan
Added
- Parker Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Stevie Clark no D1 minutes last season
- Blake Forrest no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Hofstra
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Hofstra's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.