CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteTrask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC

Liberty

Efficiency #103

2025-26: 26-8 · 17-4 conf

St Thomas

Efficiency #84

2025-26: 24-10 · 13-5 conf

Fri, Nov 27 · TBD

75.2

win 47%

Projected

76.1

win 53%

No line posted yet.

Model: STMN −0.8 · total 151.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: St Thomas 69.0, Liberty 66.1 → 66.8 possessions

−3.4

St Thomas offense vs Liberty defense

+3.7

Liberty offense vs St Thomas defense

+2.8

Projected total

151.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

St Thomas offense vs Liberty defense

+3.7

Liberty offense vs St Thomas defense

−2.8

St Thomas by 0.8

0.8

Liberty side ◂▸ St Thomas side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +0.9 against +0.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help St Thomas.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St Thomas is the faster team (69.7, #104 of 365) and Liberty the slower (64.5, #339). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.3

model

Projected team totals

75.2 / 76.1

Liberty / St Thomas

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.1#340

Liberty

69.0#122

St Thomas

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSt Thomas

Where St Thomas scores: shooting

St Thomas shoots an effective 58.9% (#5); Liberty allows 52.7% (#251). Expect about 56.4%, 5.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageLiberty

Where Liberty scores: shooting

Liberty shoots an effective 59.1% (#4); St Thomas allows 50.7% (#139). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.0 points per 100 possessions.

GlassLiberty

Liberty gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 20.8% is worth roughly -5.9 points per 100 possessions against Liberty's offense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

St Thomas averages 69.7 possessions per 40, Liberty 64.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

GlassSt Thomas

St Thomas gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.3% is worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions against St Thomas's offense.

TurnoversLiberty

Liberty protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.0% is worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions for Liberty's offense.

Liberty has the ball

OffenseSt Thomas allowsvs D1 avg

59.1% #4

50.7% #139

+6.0 pt/100

13.4% #12

17.0% #149

+2.2 pt/100

19.3% #365

26.6% #25

-5.9 pt/100

31.4% #273

30.7% #78

-0.5 pt/100

71.4% #228

—

-0.1 pt/100

Liberty net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

St Thomas has the ball

OffenseLiberty allowsvs D1 avg

58.9% #5

52.7% #251

+7.3 pt/100

14.3% #36

17.1% #147

+1.5 pt/100

22.6% #353

33.1% #302

-2.5 pt/100

33.8% #220

27.0% #23

-0.7 pt/100

68.7% #305

—

-0.3 pt/100

St Thomas net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Libertyoffense vsSt Thomasdefense

Share of shots by zone

Liberty shoots

42.9

4.9

4.4

47.7

St Thomas allows

39.8

4.7

14.0

41.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.5%#28	58.4%#158	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.0%#147	33.8%#41	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.0%#109	37.9%#156	38.0%
Three	38.6%#8	31.7%#52	33.7%

St Thomasoffense vsLibertydefense

Share of shots by zone

St Thomas shoots

44.3

3.7

5.5

46.5

Liberty allows

40.8

8.7

14.1

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	68.5%#3	55.8%#83	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	46.6%#44	43.2%#255	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	39.9%#240	38.0%
Three	36.0%#57	37.7%#353	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Liberty

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#207 of 365

Off reb %

19.3%

#365

Def reb %

66.9%

#302

Turnover %

13.4%

#12

Forced TO %

17.1%

#147

FT rate

31.4%

#273

FT allowed

27.0%

#23

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.6

Defensive rebounding−0.8

Ball security+2.3

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.9

Foul shots allowed+2.1

St Thomas

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#120 of 365

Off reb %

22.6%

#353

Def reb %

73.4%

#25

Turnover %

14.3%

#36

Forced TO %

17.0%

#149

FT rate

33.8%

#220

FT allowed

30.7%

#78

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.5

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.3

Foul shots allowed+1.2

St Thomas has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#120 of 365) to Liberty’s −0.6 (#207).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Liberty2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Zach Cleveland	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	34.9	11.9	7.6	6.8	3.2	60.7%	0.0%	0.1	53.1%	23.2%
4	Brett Decker Jr.	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.6	16.9	2.6	1.1	0.7	64.3%	47.1%	7.1	84.8%	24.8%
3	Kaden Metheny	G	Sr	5'11"	33-32	33.8	13.1	3.0	3.1	1.2	60.1%	39.6%	7.6	75.0%	21.8%
0	Colin Porter	G	Sr	5'10"	32-32	34.3	11.1	3.0	3.4	1.3	53.6%	35.8%	5.4	91.1%	19.4%
12	Josh Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	33-5	15.4	7.5	3.7	0.4	0.6	65.1%	43.8%	0.5	77.0%	24.5%
1	Zander Carter	G	Fr	6'6"	34-0	13.1	3.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	56.1%	30.0%	1.2	46.3%	15.4%
11	Zander Yates	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	6.5	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.3	46.9%	34.1%	1.5	60.0%	21.0%
21	Ryan Jones Jr.	F	Fr	6'8"	25-0	5.3	2.1	1.2	0.0	0.2	51.0%	27.8%	1.4	—	25.5%
15	Drew Grimes	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	4.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	53.3%	18.3%
20	Torr Sorensen	F	Fr	6'7"	9-0	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.0	0.0	44.4%	25.0%	0.9	100.0%	19.8%
24	Brady Kester	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	11.2%
10	JC Shirer Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	7-0	4.1	2.0	0.6	0.7	0.1	70.0%	50.0%	0.6	—	22.5%
23	TJ Drain	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	72.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.6%
7	Isaiah Ihnen	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St Thomas2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
23	Nick Janowski	G	Fr	6'4"	34-34	31.5	16.1	5.1	2.1	1.3	57.0%	33.9%	5.4	64.1%	27.6%
4	Nolan Minessale	G	So	6'5"	34-34	31.0	19.8	4.6	4.3	2.2	55.4%	30.6%	4.2	75.0%	34.7%
32	Carter Bjerke	F	Jr	6'9"	34-34	24.9	9.4	3.4	1.2	0.7	67.3%	44.9%	5.2	58.8%	17.9%
34	Ben Oosterbaan	F	So	6'6"	34-34	24.0	7.6	4.2	1.6	0.8	59.5%	36.8%	3.1	69.2%	16.9%
0	Isaiah Johnson-Arigu	F	So	6'7"	33-0	21.4	10.5	4.0	1.1	1.3	60.0%	32.5%	2.4	66.7%	26.2%
11	Austin Herro	G	So	6'3"	27-24	23.9	5.5	4.0	3.5	1.3	60.2%	37.8%	1.4	72.0%	13.8%
12	Ryan Dufault	G	Sr	6'0"	33-9	17.7	5.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	68.9%	33.3%	0.3	66.0%	15.6%
2	Jermaine Coleman	G	So	6'7"	34-0	13.9	4.4	1.9	0.5	0.4	54.7%	34.0%	3.0	64.7%	17.7%
1	Hayden Tibbits	G	So	5'11"	26-1	11.0	3.1	1.0	1.1	0.3	53.9%	34.1%	1.7	52.4%	16.2%
3	Ryan Lafferty	G	So	6'5"	11-0	13.5	1.0	1.9	1.3	1.1	45.8%	20.0%	0.5	0.0%	9.5%
5	Tim Franks	G	Fr	6'5"	16-0	4.0	2.1	0.8	0.4	0.1	66.7%	60.0%	0.6	71.4%	22.6%
10	Tommy Humphries Jr.	G	So	6'5"	9-0	4.2	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	34.6%	25.0%	0.4	33.3%	20.4%
15	Adam Tauer	G	So	6'3"	12-0	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	11.3%
20	Jack Tauer	G	Sr	6'2"	11-0	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.1	0.0%	9.9%
24	Kyle Counts	F	Fr	6'7"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	83.3%	50.0%	0.4	—	12.3%
13	Luka Momcilovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Liberty2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
25	Zach Cleveland	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	34.9	11.9	7.6	6.8	3.2	60.7%	0.0%	0.1	53.1%	23.2%
4	Brett Decker Jr.	G	So	6'3"	34-34	33.6	16.9	2.6	1.1	0.7	64.3%	47.1%	7.1	84.8%	24.8%
3	Kaden Metheny	G	Sr	5'11"	33-32	33.8	13.1	3.0	3.1	1.2	60.1%	39.6%	7.6	75.0%	21.8%
0	Colin Porter	G	Sr	5'10"	32-32	34.3	11.1	3.0	3.4	1.3	53.6%	35.8%	5.4	91.1%	19.4%
12	Josh Smith	F	Sr	6'9"	33-5	15.4	7.5	3.7	0.4	0.6	65.1%	43.8%	0.5	77.0%	24.5%
1	Zander Carter	G	Fr	6'6"	34-0	13.1	3.3	1.7	0.8	0.3	56.1%	30.0%	1.2	46.3%	15.4%
11	Zander Yates	F	Sr	6'8"	27-0	6.5	1.8	1.0	0.3	0.3	46.9%	34.1%	1.5	60.0%	21.0%
21	Ryan Jones Jr.	F	Fr	6'8"	25-0	5.3	2.1	1.2	0.0	0.2	51.0%	27.8%	1.4	—	25.5%
15	Drew Grimes	F	Fr	6'9"	12-0	4.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.2	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	53.3%	18.3%
20	Torr Sorensen	F	Fr	6'7"	9-0	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.0	0.0	44.4%	25.0%	0.9	100.0%	19.8%
24	Brady Kester	F	Fr	6'8"	6-0	4.8	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.3	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	11.2%
10	JC Shirer Jr.	G	Jr	6'3"	7-0	4.1	2.0	0.6	0.7	0.1	70.0%	50.0%	0.6	—	22.5%
23	TJ Drain	F	Fr	6'8"	7-0	3.7	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	72.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	29.6%
7	Isaiah Ihnen	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Liberty

Against the spread

Season

13-18

Home

6-7

Road

7-7

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −6.2

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

18-13

Home

8-5

Road

7-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +5.3

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	NevadaAdjEM #71	A	L 63–73	+7.0	L−3.0	147.5	U136	101.5	117.6	62.0
Mar 17	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	W 77–71	+3.0	W+9.0	141.5	O148	122.3	112.8	63.0
Mar 11	Missouri StAdjEM #212	N	L 69–77	−5.0	L−13.0	142.5	O146	108.0	120.6	63.9
Mar 7	Sam HoustonAdjEM #101	H	W 79–72	−4.5	W+2.5	152.5	U151	127.1	115.8	62.2
Mar 5	Louisiana TechAdjEM #211	H	L 71–76	−8.5	L−13.5	139.0	O147	118.8	127.1	59.8
Feb 28	Jax StateAdjEM #215	A	W 81–78	−4.0	L−1.0	139.0	O159	127.5	122.8	63.5
Feb 26	Kennesaw StAdjEM #154	A	L 65–74	+1.0	L−8.0	152.5	U139	102.7	116.9	63.3
Feb 21	Western KYAdjEM #159	H	L 73–94	−7.5	L−28.5	149.0	O167	105.3	135.5	69.3
Feb 19	FIUAdjEM #200	H	W 90–89 OT	−10.5	L−9.5	153.5	O179	113.6	112.3	79.2
Feb 14	UTEPAdjEM #279	A	W 73–64	−6.5	W+2.5	138.5	U137	118.9	104.3	61.4

St Thomas

Against the spread

Season

15-16

Home

6-6

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-15-1

Home

7-5

Road

7-7-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.8

Under 6 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 17	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	L 52–67	+2.0	L−13.0	145.5	U119	74.2	95.5	70.1
Mar 7	North DakotaAdjEM #291	N	L 66–67	−11.5	L−12.5	153.5	U133	102.4	104.0	64.4
Mar 5	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	N	W 80–67	−5.0	W+8.0	150.0	U147	124.5	104.3	64.3
Feb 28	OmahaAdjEM #257	H	W 68–53	−11.5	W+3.5	159.5	U121	104.3	81.3	65.2
Feb 26	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	H	W 84–62	−3.0	W+19.0	155.5	U146	128.8	95.1	65.2
Feb 21	DenverAdjEM #243	A	L 80–82	−4.0	L−6.0	168.5	U162	116.8	119.7	68.5
Feb 14	Kansas CityAdjEM #359	A	W 104–64	−13.0	W+27.0	153.5	O168	142.9	87.9	72.8
Feb 12	OmahaAdjEM #257	A	L 94–98	−4.5	L−8.5	156.5	O192	127.1	132.5	74.0
Feb 7	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	H	W 92–75	−15.5	W+1.5	152.0	O167	122.6	99.9	75.1
Feb 4	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	A	W 77–62	+1.0	W+16.0	157.0	U139	123.4	99.3	62.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

LibertySt Thomas

Efficiency

114.2

111.9

110.5

107.0

66.1

69.0

—

Shooting

59.1%

58.9%

60.2%

63.0%

38.6%

36.0%

71.4%

68.7%

31.4%

33.8%

Ball control & glass

13.4%

14.3%

17.1%

17.0%

19.3%

22.6%

33.1%

26.6%

8.0%

7.7%

11.0%

8.3%

Style

47.7%

46.3%

43.0%

46.5%

8.5%

12.6%

61.4%

56.7%

19.7%

32.7%

Roster

3.25

2.13

6'3.2"

6'4.9"

86.7%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Liberty

Returning minutes: 86.7%Returning production: 84.4%

Lost

JJ Harper 26.8 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Isaiah Ihnen no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

St Thomas

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted St Thomas's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.