CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteImperial Arena, Nassau, BahamasBattle 4 Atlantis
Xavier
Efficiency #129
2025-26: 15-18 · 7-15 conf
vs
Virginia
Efficiency #15
2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · 11:00 AM ET
72.1
win 20%
Projected
81.8
win 80%
No line posted yet.
Model: UVA −9.6 · total 153.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Xavier 70.3 → 69.1 possessions
+1.7
Virginia offense vs Xavier defense
+6.8
Xavier offense vs Virginia defense
−2.8
Projected total
153.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Virginia offense vs Xavier defense
+6.8
Xavier offense vs Virginia defense
+2.8
Virginia by 9.6
9.6
Xavier side ◂▸ Virginia side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Xavier is the faster team (71.2, #44 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.1
per team, 40 min
Projected total
153.9
model
Projected team totals
72.1 / 81.8
Xavier / Virginia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.3#33
Xavier
67.1#278
Virginia
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetDefenseVirginia
Virginia's shot-blocking
Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 15.2% of Xavier's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageVirginia
Where Virginia scores: shooting
Virginia shoots an effective 54.6% (#49); Xavier allows 54.1% (#302). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageXavier
Where Xavier struggles: shooting
Xavier shoots an effective 51.8% (#155); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashVirginia
Style match: ball movement
Virginia assists on 58.3% of its made baskets; Xavier allows assists on 63.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 63.3% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversXavier
Xavier protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.3% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Xavier's offense.
GlassVirginia
Virginia owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.2% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Virginia's offense.
Xavier has the ball
OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #155
45.7% #8
-3.6 pt/100
13.9% #21
15.4% #255
+3.0 pt/100
26.5% #311
29.2% #120
-2.0 pt/100
28.1% #341
32.9% #129
-0.6 pt/100
72.9% #174
—
+0.0 pt/100
Xavier net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
Virginia has the ball
OffenseXavier allowsvs D1 avg
54.6% #49
54.1% #302
+4.8 pt/100
16.0% #140
15.5% #248
+1.5 pt/100
37.9% #9
29.5% #136
+2.9 pt/100
32.3% #253
32.6% #119
-0.3 pt/100
72.8% #177
—
+0.0 pt/100
Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersXavieroffense vsVirginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Xavier shoots
31.9
6.8
21.1
40.2
Virginia allows
34.2
7.9
21.0
36.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.2%#190 | 50.9%#7 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.2%#61 | 38.6%#150 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.6%#199 | 35.7%#97 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#39 | 31.6%#46 | 33.7% |
Virginiaoffense vsXavierdefense
Share of shots by zone
Virginia shoots
36.0
6.7
10.5
46.7
Xavier allows
42.1
5.3
15.6
37.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.6%#105 | 62.0%#301 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.3%#59 | 36.5%#100 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 38.6%#164 | 40.6%#261 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.2%#48 | 34.8%#237 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersXavier
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365
Off reb %
26.5%
#311
Def reb %
70.5%
#136
Turnover %
13.9%
#21
Forced TO %
15.5%
#248
FT rate
28.1%
#341
FT allowed
32.6%
#119
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Virginia
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#9
Def reb %
70.8%
#120
Turnover %
16.0%
#140
Forced TO %
15.4%
#255
FT rate
32.3%
#253
FT allowed
32.9%
#129
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.5
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Xavier’s −0.9 (#223).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Xavier2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malik Messina-Moore | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.2 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 46.7% | 31.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 20.4% | |
| 4 | Filip Borovicanin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-32 | 31.2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 49.3% | 34.9% | 3.2 | 87.3% | 21.7% | |
| 24 | Jovan Milicevic | F | So | 6'10" | 33-31 | 26.1 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54.9% | 42.9% | 4.7 | 72.8% | 26.0% | |
| 0 | Roddie Anderson III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 23.8 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 45.7% | 31.4% | 3.7 | 72.2% | 29.3% | |
| 3 | All Wright | G | So | 6'3" | 33-28 | 22.2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 56.5% | 42.2% | 2.7 | 84.1% | 17.4% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Walker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-1 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 57.6% | 41.1% | 1.8 | 80.0% | 14.0% | |
| 22 | Pape N'Diaye | F | So | 7'0" | 29-0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 56.4% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 55.6% | 11.7% | |
| 21 | Anthony Robinson | F | So | 6'10" | 26-3 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 54.3% | — | 0.0 | 43.4% | 16.5% | |
| 9 | Mier Panoam | G | Jr | 6'2" | 7-0 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 40.0% | 18.8% | |
| 31 | Ian Sabourin | F | Sr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 23.5% | |
| 20 | Henry Thole | F | So | 6'7" | 5-0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Michael Wolf | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 8.9% | |
| 2 | Gabriel Pozzato | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Kason Westphal | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Luke Naser | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Dallin Hall | G | Sr | 6'4" | 36-36 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 50.9% | 32.0% | 2.9 | 81.3% | 14.3% | |
| 28 | Thijs De Ridder | F | Fr | 6'9" | 36-36 | 27.7 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 55.9% | 35.7% | 3.1 | 70.9% | 32.5% | |
| 5 | Sam Lewis | G | Jr | 6'7" | 36-35 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 55.9% | 40.3% | 4.3 | 75.0% | 24.7% | |
| 2 | Chance Mallory | G | Fr | 5'10" | 36-0 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 50.6% | 34.5% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 23.3% | |
| 17 | Johann Grunloh | C | Fr | 7'0" | 36-36 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 59.0% | 35.0% | 1.7 | 55.7% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | Devin Tillis | F | Sr | 6'7" | 31-1 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 50.5% | 37.5% | 2.1 | 78.3% | 17.7% | |
| 12 | Elijah Gertrude | G | So | 6'4" | 17-0 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 45.2% | 14.3% | 0.8 | 33.3% | 20.6% | |
| 7 | Martin Carrere | G | Fr | 6'9" | 16-0 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 42.3% | 16.7% | 0.4 | 50.0% | 19.3% | |
| 35 | Carter Lang | F | So | 6'9" | 12-0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 13 | Desmond Roberts | G | So | 6'4" | 12-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | — | 9.9% | |
| 22 | Owen Odom | G | Fr | 6'1" | 11-0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 25.2% | |
| 21 | Silas Barksdale | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Xavier2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malik Messina-Moore | G | Sr | 6'5" | 33-33 | 33.2 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 46.7% | 31.8% | 4.8 | 80.0% | 20.4% | |
| 4 | Filip Borovicanin | F | Sr | 6'9" | 33-32 | 31.2 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 49.3% | 34.9% | 3.2 | 87.3% | 21.7% | |
| 24 | Jovan Milicevic | F | So | 6'10" | 33-31 | 26.1 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 54.9% | 42.9% | 4.7 | 72.8% | 26.0% | |
| 0 | Roddie Anderson III | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-5 | 23.8 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 45.7% | 31.4% | 3.7 | 72.2% | 29.3% | |
| 3 | All Wright | G | So | 6'3" | 33-28 | 22.2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 56.5% | 42.2% | 2.7 | 84.1% | 17.4% | |
| 7 | Isaiah Walker | G | Sr | 6'5" | 32-1 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 57.6% | 41.1% | 1.8 | 80.0% | 14.0% | |
| 22 | Pape N'Diaye | F | So | 7'0" | 29-0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 56.4% | 42.9% | 0.7 | 55.6% | 11.7% | |
| 21 | Anthony Robinson | F | So | 6'10" | 26-3 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 54.3% | — | 0.0 | 43.4% | 16.5% | |
| 9 | Mier Panoam | G | Jr | 6'2" | 7-0 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 40.0% | 18.8% | |
| 31 | Ian Sabourin | F | Sr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 23.5% | |
| 20 | Henry Thole | F | So | 6'7" | 5-0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Michael Wolf | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 8.9% | |
| 2 | Gabriel Pozzato | F | So | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Kason Westphal | C | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Luke Naser | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Xavier
Against the spread
Season
18-15
Home
10-8
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
25-7-1
Home
14-4
Road
8-2-1
Last 10
9-1
avg vs total +13.2
Over 6 straightOver in 7 of 8 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12 | #6UConn | N | L 68–93 | +16.5 | L−8.5 | 151.0 | O161 | 105.5 | 144.4 | 64.4 |
| Mar 11 | Marquette | N | W 89–87 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 116.3 | 113.7 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | Villanova | A | L 78–91 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 154.0 | O169 | 109.9 | 128.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 3 | Seton Hall | H | L 68–77 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 144.5 | O145 | 107.2 | 121.4 | 63.4 |
| Feb 28 | Georgetown | H | W 91–84 | −4.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O175 | 127.4 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
| Feb 25 | Providence | A | L 84–94 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 170.0 | O178 | 120.9 | 135.3 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Butler | A | L 75–80 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 159.5 | U155 | 110.4 | 117.7 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | Villanova | H | L 89–92 OT | +4.0 | W+1.0 | 153.5 | O181 | 112.9 | 116.7 | 78.8 |
| Feb 14 | Marquette | H | W 96–88 | −2.0 | W+6.0 | 157.5 | O184 | 133.1 | 122.1 | 72.1 |
| Feb 9 | #17St John's | A | L 82–87 OT | +16.5 | W+11.5 | 159.5 | O169 | 99.1 | 105.1 | 82.8 |
Virginia
Against the spread
Season
17-18-1
Home
9-8
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-6-1
avg cover −0.8
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-19
Home
6-11
Road
4-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +3.5
Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | #6Tennessee | N | L 72–79 | +1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | O151 | 109.8 | 120.5 | 65.5 |
| Mar 20 | #14Wright St | N | W 82–73 | −18.0 | L−9.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 126.3 | 112.4 | 64.9 |
| Mar 14 | #1Duke | N | L 70–74 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 139.5 | O144 | 110.1 | 116.4 | 63.5 |
| Mar 13 | Miami | N | W 84–62 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 145.0 | O146 | 134.6 | 99.3 | 62.4 |
| Mar 12 | NC State | N | W 81–74 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 118.2 | 108.0 | 68.5 |
| Mar 7 | Virginia Tech | H | W 76–72 | −12.0 | L−8.0 | 146.5 | O148 | 114.6 | 108.5 | 66.3 |
| Mar 3 | Wake Forest | H | W 75–70 | −14.0 | L−9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 110.3 | 102.9 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | #1Duke | A | L 51–77 | +10.0 | L−16.0 | 143.0 | U128 | 83.7 | 126.4 | 60.9 |
| Feb 24 | NC State | H | W 90–61 | −6.0 | W+23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 128.0 | 86.7 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Miami | H | W 86–83 | −7.5 | L−4.5 | 146.5 | O169 | 132.7 | 128.1 | 64.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeXavierVirginia
Efficiency
111.7
117.4
109.4
101.2
70.3
67.1
—
—
Shooting
51.8%
54.6%
49.8%
54.9%
36.5%
36.2%
72.9%
72.8%
28.1%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
13.9%
16.0%
15.5%
15.4%
26.5%
37.9%
29.5%
29.2%
8.2%
9.6%
10.2%
10.0%
Style
40.6%
46.7%
38.8%
40.8%
17.2%
14.1%
62.2%
58.3%
27.4%
38.2%
Roster
3.23
2.24
6'6.5"
6'6"
84.8%
72.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputXavier
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 79.8%
Lost
- Tre Carroll 30.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gabriel Pozzato no D1 minutes last season
- Kason Westphal no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Naser no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Virginia
Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%
Lost
- Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.