CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe Palestra, Philadelphia, PACathedral Classic
Towson
Efficiency #149
2025-26: 19-15 · 11-10 conf
@
Penn
Efficiency #162
2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · 6:00 PM ET
68.0
win 38%
Projected
71.5
win 62%
No line posted yet.
Model: PENN −3.5 · total 139.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Penn 69.3, Towson 65.7 → 66.7 possessions
−3.5
Penn offense vs Towson defense
−2.8
Towson offense vs Penn defense
−2.5
Projected total
139.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Penn offense vs Towson defense
−2.8
Towson offense vs Penn defense
+2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Penn by 3.5
3.5
Towson side ◂▸ Penn side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.4 against a projected 139.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Penn.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Penn is the faster team (68.7, #163 of 365) and Towson the slower (63.8, #358). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.5
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 71.5
Towson / Penn
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.7#350
Towson
69.3#95
Penn

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageTowson
Where Towson struggles: shooting
Towson shoots an effective 46.5% (#345); Penn allows 52.1% (#218). Expect about 48.9%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Penn averages 68.7 possessions per 40, Towson 63.8. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantagePenn
Where Penn struggles: shooting
Penn shoots an effective 50.4% (#223); Towson allows 48.5% (#49). Expect about 49.3%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
GlassTowson
Towson owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.8% is worth roughly +2.7 points per 100 possessions for Towson's offense.
TurnoversPenn
Penn protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Penn's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Penn, Towson, Towson's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Towson at about 35.9% of its shots from three, Penn about 37.4%.
Towson has the ball
OffensePenn allowsvs D1 avg
46.5% #345
52.1% #218
-3.3 pt/100
15.9% #129
17.3% #131
+0.2 pt/100
36.0% #24
31.3% #220
+2.7 pt/100
30.4% #299
27.5% #28
-0.8 pt/100
68.9% #300
—
-0.3 pt/100
Towson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.6 pts/100
Penn has the ball
OffenseTowson allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #223
48.5% #49
-2.8 pt/100
15.3% #89
15.1% #274
+2.3 pt/100
30.0% #200
29.1% #117
-0.6 pt/100
33.9% #212
29.3% #49
-0.5 pt/100
69.4% #285
—
-0.3 pt/100
Penn net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Towsonoffense vsPenndefense
Share of shots by zone
Towson shoots
Penn allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.9%#30061.3%#27858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)40.4%#16646.0%#32039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#15938.0%#16038.0%
Three29.4%#34932.2%#7333.7%
Pennoffense vsTowsondefense
Share of shots by zone
Penn shoots
Towson allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.4%#33156.4%#9658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.2%#28642.1%#23239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.7%#19637.6%#14838.0%
Three38.3%#1330.9%#3333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Towson
+2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#90 of 365
Off reb %
36.0%
#24
Def reb %
70.9%
#117
Turnover %
15.9%
#129
Forced TO %
15.1%
#274
FT rate
30.4%
#299
FT allowed
29.3%
#49
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+1.5
Penn
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#200
Def reb %
68.7%
#220
Turnover %
15.3%
#89
Forced TO %
17.3%
#131
FT rate
33.9%
#212
FT allowed
27.5%
#28
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+2.0

Penn has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#63 of 365) to Towson’s +2.2 (#90).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Towson2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Dylan WilliamsonGJr6'1"34-3435.914.62.53.41.747.3%34.0%7.374.5%28.8%
15Tyler TejadaGJr6'9"32-3135.517.75.52.31.748.0%29.1%4.688.2%31.7%
21Jack Doumbia Jr.FSr6'6"32-623.910.75.61.82.044.7%12.2%1.365.4%33.7%
23Caleb EmbeyaFSo6'9"34-1620.73.65.80.40.950.0%—0.059.1%12.7%
3Tyler ColemanFSr6'7"32-2419.95.33.70.30.851.2%35.7%0.972.5%17.3%
24Jaquan WomackGFr6'6"32-1019.37.14.10.61.044.9%27.6%2.764.8%27.0%
41Mor SeckCSr7'1"34-1714.53.23.90.10.854.5%—0.043.3%16.4%
1Tyler SchmidtGSr6'3"32-1314.13.11.40.80.348.4%27.1%1.885.7%14.8%
13Chike NdefoGFr6'7"32-912.62.92.90.20.746.7%12.5%0.346.9%18.2%
0Ryan ConwayGSr6'1"23-910.13.50.70.30.254.3%36.4%2.971.4%20.6%
2Jaiden ColeGJr6'4"8-09.85.11.91.60.454.4%39.1%2.980.0%27.9%
12Abdou SambFSr6'8"7-17.60.90.70.40.150.0%—0.00.0%8.4%
22Ryan SkerryGJr6'4"10-03.30.30.10.20.210.7%12.5%0.8—26.8%
30Brandon HolmesFFr6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Jon BartonGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
TowsonPenn
Efficiency
106.1
107.9
104.9
107.2
65.7
69.3
—
—
Shooting
46.5%
50.4%
47.8%
46.5%
29.4%
38.3%
68.9%
69.4%
30.4%
33.9%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
15.3%
15.1%
17.3%
36.0%
30.0%
29.1%
31.3%
7.4%
8.5%
7.6%
9.3%
Style
34.9%
35.4%
43.4%
39.7%
13.0%
11.0%
38.9%
52.3%
35.0%
31.8%
Roster
2.98
2.70
6'6.2"
6'5.9"
—
88.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Towson
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Towson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Penn
Returning minutes: 88.4%Returning production: 86.3%
Lost
  • Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
Added
  • Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
  • Chris Ubochi no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 88% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.