CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSpectrum Center, Charlotte, NCDick Vitale Invitational presented by Belk
West Virginia
Efficiency #58
2025-26: 21-14 · 9-10 conf
vs
North Carolina
Efficiency #29
2025-26: 24-9 · 12-7 conf
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
68.0
win 40%
Projected
71.0
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNC −3.0 · total 139.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Carolina 68.7, West Virginia 65.2 → 65.6 possessions
−6.0
North Carolina offense vs West Virginia defense
−0.1
West Virginia offense vs North Carolina defense
−3.1
Projected total
139.0
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Carolina offense vs West Virginia defense
−0.1
West Virginia offense vs North Carolina defense
+3.1
North Carolina by 3.0
3.0
West Virginia side ◂▸ North Carolina side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Carolina.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Carolina is the faster team (68.8, #162 of 365) and West Virginia the slower (64.1, #353). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.0
model
Projected team totals
68.0 / 71.0
West Virginia / North Carolina
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.2#361
West Virginia
68.7#144
North Carolina
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Tempo tug-of-war
North Carolina averages 68.8 possessions per 40, West Virginia 64.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageWest Virginia
Where West Virginia scores: ball control
West Virginia turns it over on 16.8% of possessions (#188); North Carolina forces turnovers on 13.6% of opponent possessions (#344). Expect about 14.8%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.
ClashNorth Carolina
Strength vs strength: eFG%
North Carolina (#57 in eFG%) against West Virginia (#50 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.6%. Historically North Carolina's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.58 vs 0.51).
ClashNorth Carolina
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
North Carolina (#37 in 2-point shooting) against West Virginia (#25 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 51.9%. Historically North Carolina's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
West Virginia has the ball
OffenseNorth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg
51.6% #166
48.3% #44
-1.9 pt/100
16.8% #188
13.6% #344
+2.4 pt/100
30.5% #178
27.8% #59
-0.7 pt/100
35.1% #173
23.8% #3
-0.8 pt/100
68.3% #319
—
-0.4 pt/100
West Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.3 pts/100
North Carolina has the ball
OffenseWest Virginia allowsvs D1 avg
54.3% #57
48.5% #50
+0.5 pt/100
13.9% #19
17.8% #108
+1.2 pt/100
31.2% #159
28.6% #86
-0.2 pt/100
37.1% #127
29.3% #47
-0.3 pt/100
68.2% #322
—
-0.4 pt/100
North Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWest Virginiaoffense vsNorth Carolinadefense
Share of shots by zone
West Virginia shoots
38.5
4.6
13.3
43.6
North Carolina allows
33.9
7.1
22.1
36.9
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.4%#150 | 55.8%#79 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.1%#348 | 41.1%#211 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.6%#89 | 33.5%#38 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.1%#227 | 34.7%#234 | 33.7% |
North Carolinaoffense vsWest Virginiadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Carolina shoots
37.1
7.1
14.0
41.8
West Virginia allows
37.1
4.8
19.5
38.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#22 | 55.2%#66 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.3%#114 | 36.8%#106 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#51 | 32.2%#18 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.2%#159 | 34.3%#201 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWest Virginia
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#54 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#178
Def reb %
71.4%
#86
Turnover %
16.8%
#188
Forced TO %
17.8%
#108
FT rate
35.1%
#173
FT allowed
29.3%
#47
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.6
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers+0.7
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+1.5
North Carolina
+4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#31 of 365
Off reb %
31.2%
#159
Def reb %
72.2%
#59
Turnover %
13.9%
#19
Forced TO %
13.6%
#344
FT rate
37.1%
#127
FT allowed
23.8%
#3
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+2.0
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
North Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.5 (#31 of 365) to West Virginia’s +2.9 (#54).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
West Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Honor Huff | G | Sr | 5'10" | 35-35 | 35.9 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 35.4% | 9.7 | 86.9% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Brenen Lorient | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 29.4 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 35.8% | 2.0 | 70.4% | 25.1% | |
| 1 | Jasper Floyd | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 28.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 52.9% | 37.7% | 1.7 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 55 | Harlan Obioha | C | Sr | 7'0" | 35-35 | 19.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 52.9% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 56.7% | 17.3% | |
| 13 | Chance Moore | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-1 | 22.3 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.2% | 28.1% | 1.1 | 56.3% | 29.9% | |
| 5 | DJ Thomas | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-0 | 16.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 55.1% | 26.9% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Amir Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 16.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 37.3% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 19.2% | |
| 23 | Morris Ugusuk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 24-0 | 11.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 31.8% | 17.1% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 11.3% | |
| 4 | Jayden Forsythe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 1.4 | — | 22.2% | |
| 21 | Niyol Hauet | G | Fr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 11.6% | |
| 8 | Abraham Oyeadier | C | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 7 | Evans Barning Jr. | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | MJ Feenane | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
North Carolina2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brownat Utah | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 31.5 | 19.9 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 48.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 | 77.5% | 38.7% | |
| 17 | Neo Avdalasat Virginia Tech | G | So | 6'9" | 31-31 | 31.7 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 46.0% | 31.4% | 5.0 | 67.3% | 26.9% | |
| 14 | Angelo Brizziat Buffalo | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 56.3% | 37.3% | 4.2 | 83.4% | 27.4% | |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | F | Sr | 6'10" | 33-25 | 25.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 54.1% | 29.5% | 2.7 | 74.2% | 17.5% | |
| 54 | Cameron Fensat South Dakota | C | Sr | 7'0" | 32-32 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 57.9% | — | 0.0 | 58.5% | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Matt Ableat NC State | G | So | 6'5" | 34-0 | 21.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 51.4% | 35.5% | 4.1 | 79.6% | 24.0% | |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-4 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 40.8% | 28.3% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | G | So | 6'4" | 10-0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 0.8 | 50.0% | 26.4% | |
| 32 | Evan Smith | G | Sr | 6'1" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 34.4% | |
| 99 | John Holbrook | F | Jr | 6'8" | 5-0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.7% | |
| 35 | Cade Bennermanat Northwestern | C | So | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | F | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | C | Fr | 7'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Matt Able (from NC State), Neo Avdalas (from Virginia Tech), Cade Bennerman (from Northwestern), Angelo Brizzi (from Buffalo), Terrence Brown (from Utah), Cameron Fens (from South Dakota)
West Virginia2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Honor Huff | G | Sr | 5'10" | 35-35 | 35.9 | 16.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 50.0% | 35.4% | 9.7 | 86.9% | 28.2% | |
| 0 | Brenen Lorient | F | Sr | 6'9" | 34-34 | 29.4 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 58.0% | 35.8% | 2.0 | 70.4% | 25.1% | |
| 1 | Jasper Floyd | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-35 | 28.3 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 52.9% | 37.7% | 1.7 | 70.0% | 17.9% | |
| 55 | Harlan Obioha | C | Sr | 7'0" | 35-35 | 19.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 52.9% | 25.0% | 0.1 | 56.7% | 17.3% | |
| 13 | Chance Moore | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-1 | 22.3 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 55.2% | 28.1% | 1.1 | 56.3% | 29.9% | |
| 5 | DJ Thomas | F | Fr | 6'7" | 35-0 | 16.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 55.1% | 26.9% | 2.2 | 62.5% | 24.5% | |
| 2 | Amir Jenkins | G | Fr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 16.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 37.3% | 28.6% | 0.9 | 53.8% | 19.2% | |
| 23 | Morris Ugusuk | G | Jr | 6'4" | 24-0 | 11.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 31.8% | 17.1% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 11.3% | |
| 4 | Jayden Forsythe | G | Fr | 6'5" | 5-0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 1.4 | — | 22.2% | |
| 21 | Niyol Hauet | G | Fr | 6'4" | 6-0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2 | — | 11.6% | |
| 8 | Abraham Oyeadier | C | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 29.3% | |
| 7 | Evans Barning Jr. | F | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | MJ Feenane | G | Fr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26West Virginia
Against the spread
Season
18-17
Home
10-8
Road
3-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +0.1
Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
13-22
Home
5-13
Road
2-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +3.9
Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | Oklahoma | N | W 89–82 OT | +3.0 | W+10.0 | 138.5 | O171 | 123.9 | 114.2 | 71.8 |
| Apr 4 | Creighton | N | W 87–70 | −1.5 | W+15.5 | 137.0 | O157 | 128.7 | 103.6 | 67.6 |
| Apr 2 | Stanford | N | W 82–77 OT | −2.0 | W+3.0 | 135.5 | O159 | 111.7 | 104.9 | 73.4 |
| Mar 11 | BYU | N | L 48–68 | +3.5 | L−16.5 | 141.0 | U116 | 76.6 | 108.5 | 62.6 |
| Mar 6 | UCF | H | W 77–62 | −4.5 | W+10.5 | 141.5 | U139 | 115.4 | 92.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 3 | Kansas St | A | L 63–65 | −4.0 | L−6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 94.4 | 97.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | #19BYU | H | W 79–71 | +2.0 | W+10.0 | 141.0 | O150 | 124.9 | 112.3 | 63.2 |
| Feb 24 | Oklahoma St | A | L 84–91 OT | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 143.5 | O175 | 115.4 | 125.1 | 72.8 |
| Feb 21 | TCU | A | L 54–60 | +4.5 | L−1.5 | 133.5 | U114 | 89.6 | 99.6 | 60.3 |
| Feb 18 | Utah | H | L 56–61 | −10.5 | L−15.5 | 134.0 | U117 | 91.7 | 99.9 | 61.0 |
North Carolina
Against the spread
Season
19-13-1
Home
12-5-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover −0.5
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 4 of 5 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
14-19
Home
6-12
Road
5-5
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −3.1
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 5 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #11VCU | N | L 78–82 OT | −2.5 | L−6.5 | 151.0 | O160 | 101.9 | 107.1 | 76.5 |
| Mar 12 | Clemson | N | L 79–80 | +1.5 | W+0.5 | 140.5 | O159 | 114.5 | 115.9 | 69.0 |
| Mar 7 | #1Duke | A | L 61–76 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 147.0 | U137 | 93.8 | 116.9 | 65.0 |
| Mar 3 | Clemson | H | W 67–63 | −2.5 | W+1.5 | 142.0 | U130 | 102.3 | 96.2 | 65.5 |
| Feb 28 | Virginia Tech | H | W 89–82 | −7.0 | P0.0 | 150.0 | O171 | 128.5 | 118.4 | 69.2 |
| Feb 23 | #24Louisville | H | W 77–74 | +3.5 | W+6.5 | 163.0 | U151 | 115.6 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 21 | Syracuse | A | W 77–64 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 154.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 94.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 17 | NC State | A | L 58–82 | +7.5 | L−16.5 | 155.5 | U140 | 90.2 | 127.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 14 | Pitt | H | W 79–65 | −11.5 | W+2.5 | 145.0 | U144 | 120.7 | 99.3 | 65.4 |
| Feb 10 | Miami | A | L 66–75 | −1.0 | L−10.0 | 156.5 | U141 | 95.2 | 108.2 | 69.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWest VirginiaNorth Carolina
Efficiency
109.6
115.5
101.3
102.6
65.2
68.7
—
—
Shooting
51.6%
54.3%
53.1%
56.5%
33.1%
34.2%
68.3%
68.2%
35.1%
37.1%
Ball control & glass
16.8%
13.9%
17.8%
13.6%
30.5%
31.2%
28.6%
27.8%
9.6%
8.3%
11.4%
9.1%
Style
43.0%
42.2%
43.1%
42.6%
10.4%
14.4%
51.9%
57.2%
30.1%
28.4%
Roster
3.39
3.37
6'4.7"
6'6.7"
84.2%
17.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWest Virginia
Returning minutes: 84.2%Returning production: 85.1%
Lost
- Treysen Eaglestaff 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jackson Fields 3.7 mpg, 1.1 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
Added
- MJ Feenane no D1 minutes last season
- Evans Barning Jr. no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
North Carolina
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 13.2%
Lost
- Henri Veesaar 29.5 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Luka Bogavac 24.4 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Seth Trimble 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Louisville
- Caleb Wilson 22.9 mpg, 14.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Derek Dixon 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kyan Evans 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Terrence Brown from Utah · 31.5 mpg, 19.9 ppg last season
- Neo Avdalas from Virginia Tech · 30.8 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Angelo Brizzi from Buffalo · 29.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg last season
- Cameron Fens from South Dakota · 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Matt Able from NC State · 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Kevin Thomas no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.