CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneSteps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Florida.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesProjected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and South Dakota the slower (71.4, #36). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetShot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.5%#212 | 62.9%#321 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 32.4%#324 | 47.1%#334 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.8%#236 | 45.1%#350 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.3%#264 | 35.1%#253 | 33.7% |
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.2%#223 | 61.5%#286 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#344 | 44.8%#290 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 46.5%#6 | 40.2%#252 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.0%#117 | 34.5%#219 | 33.7% |
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersSouth Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#60 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzziah Buntyn | G | Fr | 6'1" | 31-25 | 30.3 | 12.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 44.6% | 27.7% | 3.6 | 84.4% | 24.5% | |
| 12 | Isaac Bruns | G | Jr | 6'5" | 20-20 | 30.9 | 20.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 49.5% | 39.2% | 3.7 | 84.3% | 36.2% | |
| 4 | Vince Buzelis | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-9 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 55.7% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 75.8% | 18.7% | |
| 21 | Ethan Kizer | F | So | 6'5" | 32-3 | 15.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 51.4% | 33.7% | 3.2 | 50.0% | 15.6% | |
| 13 | Silas Bennion | G | Sr | 6'1" | 16-10 | 28.9 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 41.2% | 27.5% | 2.5 | 80.0% | 12.7% | |
| 10 | Evan Anderson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-21 | 15.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 58.8% | 38.1% | 0.8 | 75.0% | 10.4% | |
| 11 | Jesse McIntosh | G | Fr | 6'7" | 20-1 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 48.4% | 29.8% | 2.9 | 82.4% | 25.1% | |
| 34 | Jake Brack | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-1 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 56.0% | 9.6% | |
| 2 | Shey Eberwein | G | So | 6'5" | 13-6 | 18.8 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 48.5% | 26.7% | 1.2 | 70.6% | 24.6% | |
| 2 | Trent Hudgens | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-0 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 38.4% | 21.4% | 1.0 | 90.0% | 21.2% | |
| 35 | Caleb Kizer | F | Sr | 6'7" | 9-0 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 18.3% | |
| 32 | Ashton Smith | F | Sr | 6'9" | 6-0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.6% | |
| 23 | Porter Ihnen | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 105.6% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 24.1% | |
| 25 | Jalen Hayes | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jonah Funk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Josiah Dotzler | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Luke Bruns | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Kamrin Oriol | G | Sr | 6'3" | 32-32 | 35.7 | 20.9 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 58.4% | 40.2% | 7.6 | 88.7% | 30.8% | |
| 10 | Kent Jackson | G | So | 6'2" | 32-32 | 31.9 | 14.8 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 51.2% | 34.8% | 9.5 | 92.5% | 27.0% | |
| 1 | BJ Plummer | F | Fr | 6'6" | 32-17 | 26.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 32.8% | 4.0 | 65.6% | 17.3% | |
| 2 | Mason Lee | F | So | 6'7" | 32-30 | 26.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 64.6% | 37.5% | 2.8 | 69.2% | 16.7% | |
| 21 | Dalton Gayman | F | Sr | 6'7" | 32-13 | 23.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52.4% | 36.5% | 2.0 | 76.1% | 24.5% | |
| 24 | Nestor Dyachok | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-18 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 49.5% | 8.0% | 0.8 | 68.0% | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Devin Hines | G | Sr | 6'4" | 27-15 | 17.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 45.4% | 24.4% | 1.7 | 71.4% | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Dante Oliver | G | So | 6'5" | 31-0 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 51.6% | 38.9% | 1.2 | 60.0% | 11.1% | |
| 22 | Trey Cady | F | Fr | 6'8" | 29-3 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 48.9% | 33.9% | 1.9 | 74.2% | 28.9% | |
| 3 | Taylor Thompson | G | Fr | 5'11" | 19-0 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 38.5% | 33.3% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 16.0% | |
| 25 | Gabe Jacobs | G | Fr | 6'1" | 9-0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 57.7% | 30.0% | 1.1 | 100.0% | 22.3% | |
| 13 | Alex Vargo | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 12 | Arden Begaj | F | Fr | 7'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Mason Watkins | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uzziah Buntyn | G | Fr | 6'1" | 31-25 | 30.3 | 12.1 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 44.6% | 27.7% | 3.6 | 84.4% | 24.5% | |
| 12 | Isaac Bruns | G | Jr | 6'5" | 20-20 | 30.9 | 20.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 49.5% | 39.2% | 3.7 | 84.3% | 36.2% | |
| 4 | Vince Buzelis | G | Fr | 6'4" | 25-9 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 55.7% | 28.6% | 1.1 | 75.8% | 18.7% | |
| 21 | Ethan Kizer | F | So | 6'5" | 32-3 | 15.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 51.4% | 33.7% | 3.2 | 50.0% | 15.6% | |
| 13 | Silas Bennion | G | Sr | 6'1" | 16-10 | 28.9 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 41.2% | 27.5% | 2.5 | 80.0% | 12.7% | |
| 10 | Evan Anderson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 27-21 | 15.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 58.8% | 38.1% | 0.8 | 75.0% | 10.4% | |
| 11 | Jesse McIntosh | G | Fr | 6'7" | 20-1 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 48.4% | 29.8% | 2.9 | 82.4% | 25.1% | |
| 34 | Jake Brack | F | Jr | 6'9" | 25-1 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 56.0% | 9.6% | |
| 2 | Shey Eberwein | G | So | 6'5" | 13-6 | 18.8 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 48.5% | 26.7% | 1.2 | 70.6% | 24.6% | |
| 2 | Trent Hudgens | G | Sr | 6'0" | 14-0 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 38.4% | 21.4% | 1.0 | 90.0% | 21.2% | |
| 35 | Caleb Kizer | F | Sr | 6'7" | 9-0 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 45.5% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 18.3% | |
| 32 | Ashton Smith | F | Sr | 6'9" | 6-0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 13.6% | |
| 23 | Porter Ihnen | G | Fr | 6'6" | 4-0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 105.6% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 24.1% | |
| 25 | Jalen Hayes | G | So | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Jonah Funk | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 13 | Josiah Dotzler | G | So | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 5 | Luke Bruns | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Omaha | N | L 62–76 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 95.8 | 117.4 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | S Dakota St | H | W 75–70 | +3.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 108.0 | 100.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 25 | Omaha | H | W 89–72 | +1.5 | W+18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 121.5 | 98.3 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Oral Roberts | A | L 62–67 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 151.5 | U129 | 85.4 | 92.2 | 72.6 |
| Feb 19 | Denver | A | L 70–90 | +6.0 | L−14.0 | 162.5 | U160 | 107.3 | 137.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 11 | North Dakota | H | L 71–72 | −1.5 | L−2.5 | 156.5 | U143 | 106.2 | 107.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 7 | S Dakota St | A | W 68–67 | +11.5 | W+12.5 | 157.5 | U135 | 97.6 | 96.1 | 69.7 |
| Feb 4 | Kansas City | A | W 82–75 OT | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 102.0 | 93.3 | 80.4 |
| Jan 31 | N Dakota St | H | L 84–89 OT | +9.0 | W+4.0 | 152.5 | O173 | 113.4 | 120.1 | 74.1 |
| Jan 29 | Oral Roberts | H | W 77–69 | −3.0 | W+5.0 | 154.5 | U146 | 108.7 | 97.4 | 70.8 |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 | West Georgia | N | L 85–93 | +4.0 | L−4.0 | 159.0 | O178 | 113.1 | 123.7 | 75.2 |
| Feb 28 | Jacksonville | H | L 61–85 | +1.5 | L−22.5 | 150.0 | U146 | 88.3 | 123.1 | 69.1 |
| Feb 26 | FGCU | H | W 76–70 | +7.0 | W+13.0 | 161.0 | U146 | 109.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Stetson | A | L 71–76 | +1.5 | L−3.5 | 160.5 | U147 | 111.1 | 118.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 19 | Austin Peay | H | L 76–77 | +11.0 | W+10.0 | 165.5 | U153 | 97.5 | 98.7 | 78.0 |
| Feb 14 | Jacksonville | A | L 56–63 | +7.5 | W+0.5 | 153.0 | U119 | 96.1 | 108.2 | 58.3 |
| Feb 11 | FGCU | A | L 81–90 | +12.5 | W+3.5 | 163.5 | O171 | 111.2 | 123.6 | 72.8 |
| Feb 7 | Queens | A | L 72–91 | +15.5 | L−3.5 | 179.5 | U163 | 104.3 | 131.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 5 | West Georgia | A | W 81–73 | +6.5 | W+14.5 | 166.0 | U154 | 109.0 | 98.2 | 74.3 |
| Jan 31 | Lipscomb | H | L 94–100 | +11.0 | W+5.0 | 166.5 | O194 | 129.0 | 137.2 | 72.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOffseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input- Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
- Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Josiah Dotzler no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Bruns no D1 minutes last season
- Jalen Hayes no D1 minutes last season
- Jonah Funk no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastThe CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.