CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceUNF Arena, Jacksonville, FL
South Dakota
Efficiency #292
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-9 conf
@
North Florida
Efficiency #338
2025-26: 7-25 · 5-14 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · TBD
81.4
win 47%
Projected
82.2
win 53%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNF −0.9 · total 163.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: North Florida 70.4, South Dakota 70.0 → 72.2 possessions
+8.3
North Florida offense vs South Dakota defense
+1.9
South Dakota offense vs North Florida defense
+5.2
Projected total
163.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
North Florida offense vs South Dakota defense
+1.9
South Dakota offense vs North Florida defense
−5.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.2
North Florida by 0.9
0.9
South Dakota side ◂▸ North Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help North Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, North Florida is the faster team (71.9, #26 of 365) and South Dakota the slower (71.4, #36). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
72.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
163.6
model
Projected team totals
81.4 / 82.2
South Dakota / North Florida
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.0#47
South Dakota
70.4#29
North Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
North Florida averages 71.9 possessions per 40, South Dakota 71.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageNorth Florida
Where North Florida scores: shooting
North Florida shoots an effective 52.9% (#106); South Dakota allows 54.5% (#318). Expect about 53.9%, 2.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageSouth Dakota
Where South Dakota scores: ball control
South Dakota turns it over on 16.6% of possessions (#172); North Florida forces turnovers on 12.7% of opponent possessions (#362). Expect about 14.1%, 2.7 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
GlassNorth Florida
North Florida gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against North Florida's offense.
ClashNorth Florida
Style clash: 3-point volume
North Florida takes 51.7% of its shots from three; South Dakota runs teams off the line (30.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 43.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashNorth Florida
Style clash: paint scoring
North Florida gets only 36.0% of its points in the paint; South Dakota gives up 52.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 44.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
South Dakota has the ball
OffenseNorth Florida allowsvs D1 avg
49.9% #239
56.3% #349
+2.6 pt/100
16.6% #172
12.7% #362
+3.3 pt/100
28.7% #242
37.6% #361
+1.4 pt/100
45.2% #4
31.4% #91
+0.3 pt/100
74.2% #123
—
+0.2 pt/100
South Dakota net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100
North Florida has the ball
OffenseSouth Dakota allowsvs D1 avg
52.9% #106
54.5% #318
+3.7 pt/100
17.9% #264
15.9% #227
-0.0 pt/100
25.2% #335
30.3% #172
-2.3 pt/100
28.8% #333
31.0% #83
-0.7 pt/100
77.8% #20
—
+0.5 pt/100
North Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
South Dakotaoffense vsNorth Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
South Dakota shoots
North Florida allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.5%#21262.9%#32158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.4%#32447.1%#33439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.8%#23645.1%#35038.0%
Three32.3%#26435.1%#25333.7%
North Floridaoffense vsSouth Dakotadefense
Share of shots by zone
North Florida shoots
South Dakota allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22361.5%#28658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.8%#34444.8%#29039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)46.5%#640.2%#25238.0%
Three35.0%#11734.5%#21933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
South Dakota
+2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#60 of 365
Off reb %
28.7%
#242
Def reb %
69.7%
#172
Turnover %
16.6%
#172
Forced TO %
15.9%
#227
FT rate
45.2%
#4
FT allowed
31.0%
#83
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+0.1
Ball security+0.1
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed+1.1
North Florida
−8.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#362 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#335
Def reb %
62.4%
#361
Turnover %
17.9%
#264
Forced TO %
12.7%
#362
FT rate
28.8%
#333
FT allowed
31.4%
#91
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−2.3
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn−1.6
Foul shots allowed+1.0

South Dakota has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.8 (#60 of 365) to North Florida’s −8.0 (#362).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

South Dakota2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Uzziah BuntynGFr6'1"31-2530.312.12.83.52.344.6%27.7%3.684.4%24.5%
12Isaac BrunsGJr6'5"20-2030.920.85.11.31.949.5%39.2%3.784.3%36.2%
4Vince BuzelisGFr6'4"25-922.77.14.01.41.755.7%28.6%1.175.8%18.7%
21Ethan KizerFSo6'5"32-315.24.01.60.20.351.4%33.7%3.250.0%15.6%
13Silas BennionGSr6'1"16-1028.94.82.73.01.241.2%27.5%2.580.0%12.7%
10Evan AndersonGFr6'4"27-2115.52.82.00.70.758.8%38.1%0.875.0%10.4%
11Jesse McIntoshGFr6'7"20-117.67.53.51.40.948.4%29.8%2.982.4%25.1%
34Jake BrackFJr6'9"25-113.62.22.50.40.557.1%—0.056.0%9.6%
2Shey EberweinGSo6'5"13-618.87.71.81.71.648.5%26.7%1.270.6%24.6%
2Trent HudgensGSr6'0"14-011.93.01.11.31.138.4%21.4%1.090.0%21.2%
35Caleb KizerFSr6'7"9-05.41.30.60.20.345.5%—0.050.0%18.3%
32Ashton SmithFSr6'9"6-04.50.50.70.00.325.0%—0.050.0%13.6%
23Porter IhnenGFr6'6"4-06.05.03.30.30.3105.6%100.0%0.350.0%24.1%
25Jalen HayesGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
14Jonah FunkFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Josiah DotzlerGSo6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
5Luke BrunsGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
South DakotaNorth Florida
Efficiency
105.9
106.9
112.6
118.3
70.0
70.4
—
—
Shooting
49.9%
52.9%
50.7%
53.4%
32.3%
35.0%
74.2%
77.8%
45.2%
28.8%
Ball control & glass
16.6%
17.9%
15.9%
12.7%
28.7%
25.2%
30.3%
37.6%
9.9%
11.2%
9.4%
12.6%
Style
35.9%
51.7%
43.6%
36.0%
9.8%
11.3%
46.1%
50.6%
31.4%
30.3%
Roster
2.01
2.68
6'3.9"
6'5.1"
72.2%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
South Dakota
Returning minutes: 72.2%Returning production: 64.9%
Lost
  • Jordan Crawford 31.2 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Missouri
  • Cameron Fens 25.3 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
Added
  • Josiah Dotzler no D1 minutes last season
  • Luke Bruns no D1 minutes last season
  • Jalen Hayes no D1 minutes last season
  • Jonah Funk no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

North Florida
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted North Florida's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.