CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameIcardo Center, Bakersfield, CA

Santa Barbara

Efficiency #140

2025-26: 18-14 · 11-10 conf

Bakersfield

Efficiency #339

2025-26: 8-24 · 2-18 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · 9:30 PM ET

77.8

win 67%

Projected

72.9

win 33%

No line posted yet.

Model: UCSB −5.0 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Bakersfield 70.2, Santa Barbara 66.3 → 68.2 possessions

−0.3

Bakersfield offense vs Santa Barbara defense

−3.1

Santa Barbara offense vs Bakersfield defense

+5.8

Projected total

150.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Bakersfield offense vs Santa Barbara defense

−3.1

Santa Barbara offense vs Bakersfield defense

−5.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Santa Barbara by 5.0

5.0

Santa Barbara side ◂▸ Bakersfield side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 150.6 against a projected 150.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Bakersfield.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Bakersfield is the faster team (72.6, #14 of 365) and Santa Barbara the slower (67.1, #240). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.7

model

Projected team totals

77.8 / 72.9

Santa Barbara / Bakersfield

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.3#327

Santa Barbara

70.2#39

Bakersfield

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSanta Barbara

Where Santa Barbara scores: shooting

Santa Barbara shoots an effective 54.7% (#47); Bakersfield allows 54.0% (#301). Expect about 54.6%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageBakersfield

Where Bakersfield struggles: shooting

Bakersfield shoots an effective 45.7% (#355); Santa Barbara allows 52.6% (#244). Expect about 48.7%, 2.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashBakersfield

Style match: 3-point volume

Bakersfield rarely shoots threes (28.9% of its shots); Santa Barbara runs teams off the line (35.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 28.6% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseBakersfield

Bakersfield's shot-blocking

Bakersfield ranks #18 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.4% of Santa Barbara's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Bakersfield averages 72.6 possessions per 40, Santa Barbara 67.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversSanta Barbara

Santa Barbara turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Santa Barbara's offense.

Santa Barbara has the ball

OffenseBakersfield allowsvs D1 avg

54.7% #47

54.0% #301

+4.8 pt/100

18.7% #311

17.9% #100

-2.2 pt/100

31.0% #165

35.6% #349

+1.8 pt/100

36.8% #134

42.6% #334

+0.7 pt/100

77.5% #23

—

+0.5 pt/100

Santa Barbara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.4 pts/100

Bakersfield has the ball

OffenseSanta Barbara allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #355

52.6% #244

-3.7 pt/100

18.9% #316

16.8% #166

-1.5 pt/100

30.4% #181

25.5% #14

-1.4 pt/100

42.2% #27

42.4% #330

+1.0 pt/100

73.8% #142

—

+0.1 pt/100

Bakersfield net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Santa Barbaraoffense vsBakersfielddefense

Share of shots by zone

Santa Barbara shoots

38.5

6.2

11.4

43.9

Bakersfield allows

39.9

6.4

14.1

39.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.9%#164	60.1%#228	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.4%#297	42.6%#240	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#37	40.7%#269	38.0%
Three	37.4%#23	36.0%#305	33.7%

Bakersfieldoffense vsSanta Barbaradefense

Share of shots by zone

Bakersfield shoots

38.4

7.3

25.7

28.6

Santa Barbara allows

40.4

6.2

17.5

35.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.4%#289	60.8%#261	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.3%#339	37.2%#120	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#222	39.0%#203	38.0%
Three	29.0%#353	33.9%#177	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Santa Barbara

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#215 of 365

Off reb %

31.0%

#165

Def reb %

74.5%

#14

Turnover %

18.7%

#311

Forced TO %

16.8%

#166

FT rate

36.8%

#134

FT allowed

42.4%

#330

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.2

Defensive rebounding+1.6

Ball security−1.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed−1.8

Bakersfield

−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#277 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#181

Def reb %

64.4%

#349

Turnover %

18.9%

#316

Forced TO %

17.9%

#100

FT rate

42.2%

#27

FT allowed

42.6%

#334

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.4

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Santa Barbara has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#215 of 365) to Bakersfield’s −2.3 (#277).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Santa Barbara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	CJ Shaw	G	Fr	6'5"	32-15	29.0	12.2	2.0	2.3	1.8	60.1%	43.2%	3.0	82.6%	22.9%
7	Colin Smith	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	11.9	4.2	1.5	1.7	55.1%	40.5%	3.7	80.0%	23.5%
24	Zion Sensley	G	So	6'8"	32-24	25.2	10.9	7.6	0.8	1.0	53.9%	36.0%	5.1	82.4%	25.1%
34	Hosana Kitenge	F	Sr	6'8"	32-27	20.8	7.5	4.5	1.7	2.1	55.9%	25.0%	0.3	61.4%	24.9%
4	Marvin McGhee IV	G	Jr	6'7"	28-3	20.7	6.3	4.2	1.4	1.1	59.1%	38.3%	2.9	88.9%	17.2%
1	Miro Little	G	Jr	6'3"	18-18	28.7	11.9	5.4	4.6	2.1	53.6%	34.4%	3.4	82.9%	24.8%
23	Michael Simcoe	F	Fr	6'8"	30-0	9.4	2.2	1.7	0.6	0.5	50.0%	18.2%	0.4	54.2%	17.0%
12	Evans Kipruto	C	Sr	6'8"	28-5	9.0	2.6	2.0	0.2	0.7	65.9%	—	0.0	65.5%	17.8%
44	Zachiah Clark	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	9.3	3.1	1.1	0.5	0.7	50.0%	36.8%	1.3	72.7%	22.6%
10	Jason Fontenet II	G	Jr	6'6"	5-5	26.6	6.6	5.0	1.6	2.2	37.5%	20.0%	2.0	47.4%	22.8%
00	Koat Keat Tong	F	Jr	6'10"	15-0	6.3	2.0	1.9	0.3	0.5	61.8%	100.0%	0.1	69.2%	19.5%
2	Luke Zuffelato	G	Fr	6'5"	8-0	9.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	21.9%	7.7%	1.6	50.0%	18.4%
18	Isaac Shingange	G	Jr	6'5"	4-0	5.0	0.3	0.0	1.0	0.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	10.9%
21	John Simcoe	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	3.5	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	—	—	0.0	—	7.9%
6	Kyle Haughy	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.5	1.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	16.2%
35	Bryce Bedgood	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bakersfield2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Dailin Smith	G	Sr	6'6"	30-27	29.3	16.5	2.4	0.9	1.6	41.2%	28.0%	5.4	80.6%	32.8%
10	AJ George	G	Sr	6'5"	30-29	28.1	8.2	3.5	1.5	1.7	41.3%	20.8%	1.6	65.0%	21.7%
21	Ronald Jessamy	F	Jr	6'8"	31-23	26.0	13.5	6.6	1.2	2.8	52.8%	20.0%	0.5	67.6%	31.0%
1	Tom Mark	F	Sr	6'7"	27-19	25.0	6.7	4.2	1.0	1.0	51.7%	32.7%	2.0	68.1%	15.4%
12	Kadar Waller	G	Sr	5'11"	32-6	20.5	3.3	1.8	2.8	1.3	38.5%	29.6%	0.8	73.8%	13.0%
0	CJ Hardy	G	Sr	6'3"	22-21	28.1	12.4	3.8	2.9	2.4	50.0%	31.3%	3.0	83.2%	25.7%
2	Mike Price	G	Fr	6'3"	31-5	18.2	6.5	1.1	0.8	1.2	43.9%	32.3%	3.1	70.4%	24.8%
7	Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	Sr	6'11"	26-19	18.9	3.0	7.0	0.3	0.8	61.1%	—	0.0	36.7%	10.3%
25	Jaden Alexander	G	Jr	6'4"	20-10	19.6	9.3	3.4	0.5	1.4	47.0%	35.3%	1.7	82.9%	27.6%
5	Bentley Waller	G	Fr	6'4"	22-1	11.1	4.0	1.3	0.6	1.0	49.3%	36.8%	0.9	87.5%	22.5%
3	Dylan Purnell	G	So	6'5"	16-0	8.6	2.6	1.9	0.3	0.6	39.3%	10.0%	0.6	42.9%	23.4%
4	Caleb McCarty	F	Sr	6'8"	6-0	8.7	3.2	2.5	0.3	0.2	61.5%	—	0.0	75.0%	16.6%
40	TJ James Jr.	G	Fr	6'1"	10-0	4.0	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	31.3%	15.4%	1.3	0.0%	21.2%
11	Colin Darby	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Santa Barbara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	CJ Shaw	G	Fr	6'5"	32-15	29.0	12.2	2.0	2.3	1.8	60.1%	43.2%	3.0	82.6%	22.9%
7	Colin Smith	F	Jr	6'8"	31-31	29.4	11.9	4.2	1.5	1.7	55.1%	40.5%	3.7	80.0%	23.5%
24	Zion Sensley	G	So	6'8"	32-24	25.2	10.9	7.6	0.8	1.0	53.9%	36.0%	5.1	82.4%	25.1%
34	Hosana Kitenge	F	Sr	6'8"	32-27	20.8	7.5	4.5	1.7	2.1	55.9%	25.0%	0.3	61.4%	24.9%
4	Marvin McGhee IV	G	Jr	6'7"	28-3	20.7	6.3	4.2	1.4	1.1	59.1%	38.3%	2.9	88.9%	17.2%
1	Miro Little	G	Jr	6'3"	18-18	28.7	11.9	5.4	4.6	2.1	53.6%	34.4%	3.4	82.9%	24.8%
23	Michael Simcoe	F	Fr	6'8"	30-0	9.4	2.2	1.7	0.6	0.5	50.0%	18.2%	0.4	54.2%	17.0%
12	Evans Kipruto	C	Sr	6'8"	28-5	9.0	2.6	2.0	0.2	0.7	65.9%	—	0.0	65.5%	17.8%
44	Zachiah Clark	G	Fr	6'2"	15-0	9.3	3.1	1.1	0.5	0.7	50.0%	36.8%	1.3	72.7%	22.6%
10	Jason Fontenet II	G	Jr	6'6"	5-5	26.6	6.6	5.0	1.6	2.2	37.5%	20.0%	2.0	47.4%	22.8%
00	Koat Keat Tong	F	Jr	6'10"	15-0	6.3	2.0	1.9	0.3	0.5	61.8%	100.0%	0.1	69.2%	19.5%
2	Luke Zuffelato	G	Fr	6'5"	8-0	9.1	1.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	21.9%	7.7%	1.6	50.0%	18.4%
18	Isaac Shingange	G	Jr	6'5"	4-0	5.0	0.3	0.0	1.0	0.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	10.9%
21	John Simcoe	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	3.5	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	—	—	0.0	—	7.9%
6	Kyle Haughy	F	Jr	6'6"	4-0	2.5	1.0	1.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	16.2%
35	Bryce Bedgood	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Santa Barbara

Against the spread

Season

11-18-1

Home

7-5-1

Road

3-10

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −4.0

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 1 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Over / under

Season

16-14

Home

8-5

Road

6-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +3.0

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UC DavisAdjEM #185	N	L 73–79	−4.5	L−10.5	139.5	O152	99.1	107.2	73.7
Mar 7	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	H	L 63–64	−2.0	L−3.0	142.0	U127	100.9	102.5	62.4
Feb 28	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 60–64	+3.5	L−0.5	138.5	U124	90.8	96.9	66.1
Feb 26	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	H	W 70–59	−11.0	P0.0	145.5	U129	102.7	86.6	68.1
Feb 21	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	L 75–78 OT	+5.0	W+2.0	145.5	O153	101.3	105.4	74.0
Feb 19	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 83–85 OT	−5.5	L−7.5	156.5	O168	99.7	102.1	83.2
Feb 14	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	A	L 79–89	−4.5	L−14.5	159.0	O168	118.5	133.5	66.7
Feb 12	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	W 76–68	−7.0	W+1.0	145.0	U144	118.1	105.7	64.3
Feb 7	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	W 84–79	+1.0	W+6.0	138.5	O163	118.3	111.2	71.0
Feb 5	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	L 75–85	−3.5	L−13.5	148.0	O160	116.0	131.5	64.7

Bakersfield

Against the spread

Season

12-18

Home

6-9

Road

5-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-13-1

Home

7-8

Road

9-4-1

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +5.5

Over 7 straightOver in 7 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Cal PolyAdjEM #240	A	L 76–108	+9.0	L−23.0	173.0	O184	92.2	131.0	82.5
Mar 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 84–86	+8.0	W+6.0	165.0	O170	105.7	108.2	79.5
Feb 28	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	L 87–88	+3.0	W+2.0	153.5	O175	117.3	118.6	74.2
Feb 26	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 72–84	+14.5	W+2.5	149.0	O156	100.8	117.6	71.4
Feb 21	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 80–88	+6.0	L−2.0	161.0	O168	108.9	119.8	73.4
Feb 19	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	L 65–93	+7.0	L−21.0	151.5	O158	84.3	120.6	77.1
Feb 12	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	L 74–89	+13.5	L−1.5	151.5	O163	102.3	123.0	72.3
Feb 7	FullertonAdjEM #205	A	L 66–82	+10.0	L−6.0	158.0	U148	89.0	110.6	74.2
Feb 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 62–78	+17.0	W+1.0	144.5	U140	84.7	106.6	73.2
Jan 31	UC DavisAdjEM #185	H	L 72–80	+5.5	L−2.5	152.5	U152	103.4	114.9	69.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Santa BarbaraBakersfield

Efficiency

111.5

102.7

109.8

114.0

66.3

70.2

—

Shooting

54.7%

45.7%

53.6%

46.6%

37.4%

29.0%

77.5%

73.8%

36.8%

42.2%

Ball control & glass

18.7%

18.9%

16.8%

17.9%

31.0%

30.4%

25.5%

35.6%

10.7%

10.4%

9.9%

9.1%

Style

44.1%

28.9%

38.4%

41.8%

11.1%

16.0%

54.6%

44.6%

30.9%

32.3%

Roster

2.49

3.37

6'6.7"

6'5.1"

83.5%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Santa Barbara

Returning minutes: 83.5%Returning production: 84.6%

Lost

Aidan Mahaney 33.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Bryce Bedgood no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Bakersfield

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bakersfield's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Jan 15	2025-26	Santa Barbara 75 – 69 Bakersfield
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Bakersfield 84 – 109 Santa Barbara

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.