CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameBank of Colorado Arena, Greeley, CO
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
@
N Colorado
Efficiency #146
2025-26: 20-12 · 10-9 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · TBD
73.6
win 36%
Projected
77.8
win 64%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNCO −4.2 · total 151.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: N Colorado 69.1, Idaho 68.4 → 69.2 possessions
+1.9
N Colorado offense vs Idaho defense
+0.7
Idaho offense vs N Colorado defense
+0.5
Projected total
151.3
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
N Colorado offense vs Idaho defense
+0.7
Idaho offense vs N Colorado defense
−0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
N Colorado by 4.2
4.2
Idaho side ◂▸ N Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Colorado is the faster team (70.0, #92 of 365) and Idaho the slower (69.1, #139). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.3
model
Projected team totals
73.6 / 77.8
Idaho / N Colorado
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#176
Idaho
69.1#115
N Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho scores: ball control
Idaho turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#64); N Colorado forces turnovers on 12.4% of opponent possessions (#363). Expect about 13.0%, 3.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.7 points per 100 possessions.
ClashIdaho
Style match: ball movement
Idaho creates off the dribble (assists on 44.6% of its baskets); N Colorado breaks up passing offenses (assists on 37.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 38.0% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageN Colorado
Where N Colorado struggles: the offensive glass
N Colorado rebounds 27.2% of its own misses (#288); Idaho lets opponents grab 24.2% of their own misses (#5). Expect about 25.2%, 5.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions.
GlassIdaho
Idaho gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.0% is worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions against Idaho's offense.
TurnoversN Colorado
N Colorado protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for N Colorado's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (N Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Idaho at about 42.6% of its shots from three, N Colorado about 38.4%.
Idaho has the ball
OffenseN Colorado allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
50.1% #106
-0.8 pt/100
15.0% #64
12.4% #363
+4.7 pt/100
28.4% #250
24.2% #6
-2.7 pt/100
34.6% #193
38.8% #280
+0.2 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100
N Colorado has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
55.7% #24
50.5% #128
+3.1 pt/100
15.4% #98
15.1% #283
+2.3 pt/100
27.2% #288
24.2% #5
-3.2 pt/100
27.5% #348
38.5% #273
-0.2 pt/100
75.8% #59
—
+0.3 pt/100
N Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Idahooffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
N Colorado allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24556.7%#10758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21633.9%#4339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18546.7%#35738.0%
Three34.1%#16830.7%#2833.7%
N Coloradooffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
Idaho allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.7%#4255.5%#7658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.3%#9543.7%#26339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)48.3%#138.8%#19538.0%
Three35.0%#12135.2%#26433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Idaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
N Colorado
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#328 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#288
Def reb %
75.8%
#6
Turnover %
15.4%
#98
Forced TO %
12.4%
#363
FT rate
27.5%
#348
FT allowed
38.8%
#280
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.9

Idaho has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#158 of 365) to N Colorado’s −3.8 (#328).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
12Jackson RasmussenFFr6'7"35-3531.013.64.71.31.953.4%32.1%3.168.3%26.3%
14Kolton MitchellGSo6'1"33-3230.413.73.33.81.650.3%36.3%6.179.7%26.5%
3Biko JohnsonGSr6'2"36-3527.712.33.82.41.845.5%30.8%5.572.5%29.3%
0Brody RowburyFSr6'11"36-3624.57.75.21.01.063.0%38.7%0.968.3%16.5%
7Jack PayneGJr6'6"34-2221.56.64.11.30.948.8%31.6%4.082.4%19.8%
5Isaiah BricknerGSr6'4"35-1320.511.93.90.91.255.6%41.1%3.276.0%31.9%
21Seth JobaFJr6'9"36-017.25.23.50.40.755.4%35.5%2.665.6%17.6%
1Trevon BlassingameGJr6'4"35-316.93.92.60.50.758.9%37.9%1.972.7%13.2%
24Miles KlapperGSo6'3"29-412.33.82.00.80.556.3%42.9%1.468.4%18.1%
4Aidan SevillaGSr6'0"20-06.72.01.00.80.448.5%28.6%0.788.9%19.5%
15Ewan SteeleFSo6'9"15-06.31.51.60.50.144.4%40.0%0.360.0%14.0%
10Kristian GonzalezGJr6'3"1-018.018.01.00.02.093.8%75.0%4.0100.0%35.7%
2Talon JenkinsGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Titus YearoutGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Tyler LinhardtFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
34Will JensonFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
IdahoN Colorado
Efficiency
108.3
110.7
107.3
109.4
68.4
69.1
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
55.7%
51.6%
58.1%
34.1%
35.0%
72.6%
75.8%
34.6%
27.5%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
15.4%
15.1%
12.4%
28.4%
27.2%
24.2%
24.2%
9.0%
8.6%
9.0%
7.2%
Style
47.0%
41.5%
39.4%
47.9%
9.2%
8.2%
44.6%
53.3%
31.4%
26.0%
Roster
2.88
3.08
6'5.2"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Idaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

N Colorado
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Feb 282025-26N Colorado 76 – 67 Idaho
Thu, Jan 292025-26Idaho 83 – 91 N Colorado

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.