CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameBren Events Center, Irvine, CA
UC Riverside
Efficiency #288
2025-26: 10-22 · 5-15 conf
@
UC Irvine
Efficiency #105
2025-26: 23-12 · 16-6 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · TBD
65.8
win 17%
Projected
76.8
win 83%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCI −11.0 · total 142.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC Irvine 68.9, UC Riverside 69.1 → 69.7 possessions
+3.0
UC Irvine offense vs UC Riverside defense
−0.8
UC Riverside offense vs UC Irvine defense
−7.8
Projected total
142.6
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC Irvine offense vs UC Riverside defense
−0.8
UC Riverside offense vs UC Irvine defense
+7.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
UC Irvine by 11.0
11.0
UC Riverside side ◂▸ UC Irvine side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC Irvine.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Riverside is the faster team (71.1, #49 of 365) and UC Irvine the slower (70.7, #63). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
142.6
model
Projected team totals
65.8 / 76.8
UC Riverside / UC Irvine
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#117
UC Riverside
68.9#129
UC Irvine

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUC Riverside
Where UC Riverside struggles: shooting
UC Riverside shoots an effective 48.9% (#291); UC Irvine allows 45.9% (#9). Expect about 47.2%, 4.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUC Irvine
Style match: 3-point volume
UC Irvine rarely shoots threes (28.0% of its shots); UC Riverside runs teams off the line (31.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 25.3% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Track meet
UC Irvine averages 70.7 possessions per 40, UC Riverside 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 72 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseUC Irvine
UC Irvine's shot-blocking
UC Irvine ranks #11 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.8% of UC Riverside's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
TurnoversUC Riverside
UC Riverside turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 19.3% is worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions against UC Riverside's offense.
ClashUC Irvine
Style match: paint scoring
UC Irvine scores 48.9% of its points in the paint; UC Riverside gives up 49.3% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 46.5% — both habits push the same way.
UC Riverside has the ball
OffenseUC Irvine allowsvs D1 avg
48.9% #291
45.9% #9
-5.8 pt/100
19.0% #322
18.8% #59
-3.2 pt/100
27.8% #275
31.2% #213
-0.9 pt/100
35.0% #177
26.7% #18
-0.6 pt/100
74.2% #120
—
+0.2 pt/100
UC Riverside net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.3 pts/100
UC Irvine has the ball
OffenseUC Riverside allowsvs D1 avg
49.5% #268
52.7% #252
-0.5 pt/100
17.8% #258
15.5% #250
+0.3 pt/100
31.0% #166
30.0% #159
+0.1 pt/100
35.9% #152
40.9% #312
+0.5 pt/100
69.7% #276
—
-0.2 pt/100
UC Irvine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC Riversideoffense vsUC Irvinedefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Riverside shoots
UC Irvine allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.1%#23446.5%#158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)35.6%#27438.0%#13539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.0%#22435.6%#9538.0%
Three31.6%#30133.7%#16733.7%
UC Irvineoffense vsUC Riversidedefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Irvine shoots
UC Riverside allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.5%#31259.1%#19458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.2%#3835.6%#7639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.3%#21344.0%#34038.0%
Three33.6%#19133.5%#15933.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC Riverside
−4.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#339 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#275
Def reb %
70.0%
#159
Turnover %
19.0%
#322
Forced TO %
15.5%
#250
FT rate
35.0%
#177
FT allowed
40.9%
#312
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.2
Ball security−1.6
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed−1.5
UC Irvine
+3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#52 of 365
Off reb %
31.0%
#166
Def reb %
68.8%
#213
Turnover %
17.8%
#258
Forced TO %
18.8%
#59
FT rate
35.9%
#152
FT allowed
26.7%
#18
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+2.2

UC Irvine has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.1 (#52 of 365) to UC Riverside’s −4.5 (#339).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Riverside2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Riverside's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
10Marqui Worthy Jr.GJr6'4"32-3235.016.44.73.03.350.0%33.1%4.675.9%29.0%
12Andrew HendersonGSr6'5"32-2933.318.14.92.02.149.5%33.9%7.979.5%32.6%
9Osiris GradyFJr6'9"32-2430.910.25.71.71.846.8%20.9%1.364.6%22.0%
1De'Undrae Perteete Jr.GSo6'5"27-2127.56.73.22.40.958.7%41.6%2.972.7%13.1%
8BJ KollyFSr6'10"30-3024.58.75.51.42.552.4%0.0%0.477.1%23.2%
44Jailen Daniel-DaltonFSr6'6"25-1724.26.24.20.91.048.8%17.9%1.668.4%16.3%
0Tyler JonesGSo6'2"30-513.32.91.30.90.348.0%33.9%2.077.8%13.3%
13Ben WallerGFr6'6"28-213.64.32.40.60.649.5%36.6%1.578.8%18.4%
23Dylan GodfreyFJr6'8"24-09.83.41.40.60.547.6%35.6%1.966.7%23.2%
22Denzel HinesFJr6'6"6-09.71.32.70.51.030.0%0.0%0.7100.0%16.5%
2EJ SpillmanGFr6'4"12-03.50.80.20.30.130.0%25.0%0.3—21.3%
34Daniel TobilobaCJr7'0"8-03.30.31.10.00.016.7%—0.0—13.2%
32Amaury McKinneyFFr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
35Gavin HaaseGFr6'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Parker StraussGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC RiversideUC Irvine
Efficiency
104.1
105.1
110.7
101.6
69.1
68.9
—
—
Shooting
48.9%
49.5%
49.9%
49.1%
31.6%
33.6%
74.2%
69.7%
35.0%
35.9%
Ball control & glass
19.0%
17.8%
15.5%
18.8%
27.8%
31.0%
30.0%
31.2%
10.1%
9.1%
8.6%
9.1%
Style
38.3%
28.0%
44.0%
48.9%
11.2%
15.0%
49.7%
55.1%
25.0%
34.8%
Roster
3.07
2.42
6'6.1"
6'5.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC Riverside
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Riverside's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

UC Irvine
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Irvine's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Thu, Jan 222025-26UC Irvine 80 – 66 UC Riverside
Thu, Dec 42025-26UC Riverside 60 – 73 UC Irvine

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.