CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameTitan Gym, Fullerton, CA
Sacramento St
Efficiency #280
2025-26: 10-21 · 6-13 conf
@
Fullerton
Efficiency #205
2025-26: 18-16 · 13-9 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · 10:00 PM ET
77.4
win 25%
Projected
85.2
win 75%
No line posted yet.
Model: CSUF −7.8 · total 162.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Fullerton 72.0, Sacramento St 71.1 → 74.8 possessions
+14.0
Fullerton offense vs Sacramento St defense
+2.0
Sacramento St offense vs Fullerton defense
−1.6
Projected total
162.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Fullerton offense vs Sacramento St defense
+2.0
Sacramento St offense vs Fullerton defense
+1.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.3
Fullerton by 7.8
7.8
Sacramento St side ◂▸ Fullerton side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +7.9 against +7.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Fullerton.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 74.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Fullerton is the faster team (75.5, #2 of 365) and Sacramento St the slower (72.3, #19). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
74.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
162.6
model
Projected team totals
77.4 / 85.2
Sacramento St / Fullerton
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.1#14
Sacramento St
72.0#4
Fullerton

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Track meet
Fullerton averages 75.5 possessions per 40, Sacramento St 72.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 76 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageSacramento St
Where Sacramento St struggles: the offensive glass
Sacramento St rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#336); Fullerton lets opponents grab 28.3% of their own misses (#80). Expect about 25.8%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageFullerton
Where Fullerton scores: shooting
Fullerton shoots an effective 51.4% (#180); Sacramento St allows 55.0% (#331). Expect about 53.3%, 2.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashFullerton
Style match: 3-point volume
Fullerton takes 43.1% of its shots from three; Sacramento St lets opponents take 43.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.1% — both habits push the same way.
GlassFullerton
Fullerton gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.8% is worth roughly -1.6 points per 100 possessions against Fullerton's offense.
ClashSacramento St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Sacramento St rarely shoots threes (35.6% of its shots); Fullerton lets opponents take 46.4% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Sacramento St has the ball
OffenseFullerton allowsvs D1 avg
47.0% #337
54.3% #307
-1.3 pt/100
14.1% #26
19.5% #35
-0.2 pt/100
25.2% #336
28.3% #80
-2.8 pt/100
41.2% #41
35.3% #188
+0.4 pt/100
78.1% #15
—
+0.5 pt/100
Sacramento St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
Fullerton has the ball
OffenseSacramento St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #180
55.0% #331
+2.8 pt/100
15.2% #79
17.1% #139
+0.8 pt/100
24.6% #345
33.4% #306
-1.6 pt/100
37.8% #107
36.2% #216
+0.3 pt/100
71.6% #218
—
-0.1 pt/100
Fullerton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Sacramento Stoffense vsFullertondefense
Share of shots by zone
Sacramento St shoots
Fullerton allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim54.7%#30664.6%#34758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)34.1%#30147.0%#33139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27638.5%#18038.0%
Three31.9%#28434.0%#18533.7%
Fullertonoffense vsSacramento Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Fullerton shoots
Sacramento St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.2%#22260.1%#23058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.4%#11343.3%#25639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.5%#20542.6%#32238.0%
Three34.2%#16235.2%#25733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Sacramento St
+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#141 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#336
Def reb %
66.6%
#306
Turnover %
14.1%
#26
Forced TO %
17.1%
#139
FT rate
41.2%
#41
FT allowed
36.2%
#216
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−0.3
Fullerton
+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#77 of 365
Off reb %
24.6%
#345
Def reb %
71.7%
#80
Turnover %
15.2%
#79
Forced TO %
19.5%
#35
FT rate
37.8%
#107
FT allowed
35.3%
#188
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.9
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed0.0

Fullerton has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#77 of 365) to Sacramento St’s +0.9 (#141).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Sacramento St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
16Prophet JohnsonGSr6'3"30-2935.418.27.43.72.352.8%39.2%4.274.2%28.5%
32Mark LavrenovFFr6'8"31-2126.09.97.00.51.046.9%28.6%1.182.4%20.9%
4Jahni SummersGJr6'6"31-3025.89.92.50.91.157.5%42.2%4.475.0%20.1%
1Mikey WilliamsGSo6'3"21-2135.017.13.04.52.940.1%26.5%4.083.0%31.2%
23Arman MadiGSo6'6"30-521.97.02.91.50.850.9%28.6%2.673.2%18.1%
8Shaqir O'NealFSr6'8"31-3119.45.33.20.50.747.9%32.7%1.677.0%15.6%
5Jayden TeatGSo6'2"29-114.66.01.60.90.743.6%34.7%3.582.8%27.1%
2Taj GloverGFr6'3"29-613.64.51.61.20.441.9%23.1%1.375.0%19.9%
3Romari RobinsonGFr6'4"24-111.01.81.40.50.540.2%26.3%0.860.0%12.3%
0Brandon GardnerFSo6'8"16-415.64.12.80.40.446.5%22.7%1.486.7%15.4%
9Jeremiah CherryFSr6'11"6-631.215.58.21.73.748.7%12.5%1.369.2%32.2%
34Jeremiah NyarkoFSr6'9"5-05.00.81.40.00.233.3%—0.0—15.0%
13Isaiah BronsonGFr6'2"6-03.50.70.30.20.250.0%—0.050.0%12.0%
7Zach AndersonGJr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Sacramento StFullerton
Efficiency
105.8
107.6
111.9
109.1
71.1
72.0
—
—
Shooting
47.0%
51.4%
46.6%
51.4%
31.9%
34.2%
78.1%
71.6%
41.2%
37.8%
Ball control & glass
14.1%
15.2%
17.1%
19.5%
25.2%
24.6%
33.4%
28.3%
9.2%
8.2%
8.5%
8.5%
Style
35.6%
43.1%
40.4%
39.4%
16.8%
20.5%
48.9%
55.2%
29.5%
37.8%
Roster
2.49
2.86
6'5.3"
6'3.8"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Sacramento St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Sacramento St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Fullerton
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Fullerton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.