CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceScheels Center, Fargo, ND
UC Davis
Efficiency #185
2025-26: 19-14 · 12-10 conf
@
N Dakota St
Efficiency #90
2025-26: 27-8 · 17-2 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · TBD
70.2
win 26%
Projected
77.7
win 74%
No line posted yet.
Model: NDSU −7.5 · total 148.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: N Dakota St 67.8, UC Davis 69.3 → 68.8 possessions
+1.1
N Dakota St offense vs UC Davis defense
+1.1
UC Davis offense vs N Dakota St defense
−2.5
Projected total
148.0
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
N Dakota St offense vs UC Davis defense
+1.1
UC Davis offense vs N Dakota St defense
+2.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
N Dakota St by 7.5
7.5
UC Davis side ◂▸ N Dakota St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.9 against a projected 148.0, and the margin steps add to +7.6 against +7.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Dakota St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC Davis is the faster team (71.3, #41 of 365) and N Dakota St the slower (68.1, #196). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
68.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
148.0
model
Projected team totals
70.2 / 77.7
UC Davis / N Dakota St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.3#99
UC Davis
67.8#225
N Dakota St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageUC Davis
Where UC Davis struggles: the offensive glass
UC Davis rebounds 25.2% of its own misses (#334); N Dakota St lets opponents grab 25.5% of their own misses (#15). Expect about 24.4%, 6.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.7 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversUC Davis
UC Davis turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.6% is worth roughly -2.3 points per 100 possessions against UC Davis's offense.
AdvantageN Dakota St
Where N Dakota St scores: shooting
N Dakota St shoots an effective 53.2% (#92); UC Davis allows 51.7% (#197). Expect about 52.7%, 1.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashUC Davis
Style match: 3-point volume
UC Davis takes 43.5% of its shots from three; N Dakota St lets opponents take 44.1% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 45.7% — both habits push the same way.
TurnoversN Dakota St
N Dakota St turns it over
Projected turnover rate of 18.0% is worth roughly -1.5 points per 100 possessions against N Dakota St's offense.
ClashUC Davis
Strength vs strength: free-throw rate
UC Davis (#53 in free-throw rate) against N Dakota St (#46 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.2%. Historically N Dakota St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).
UC Davis has the ball
OffenseN Dakota St allowsvs D1 avg
51.8% #157
52.0% #215
+1.0 pt/100
17.9% #266
18.7% #65
-2.3 pt/100
25.2% #334
25.5% #15
-3.7 pt/100
40.5% #53
29.2% #46
-0.1 pt/100
75.3% #74
—
+0.3 pt/100
UC Davis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.8 pts/100
N Dakota St has the ball
OffenseUC Davis allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #92
51.7% #197
+2.0 pt/100
15.6% #112
19.8% #30
-1.5 pt/100
32.9% #89
30.5% #182
+1.1 pt/100
30.6% #289
39.1% #290
+0.0 pt/100
71.4% #227
—
-0.1 pt/100
N Dakota St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
UC Davisoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UC Davis shoots
N Dakota St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.5%#14160.0%#22558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)37.5%#23642.7%#24139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18938.2%#16638.0%
Three34.4%#14933.9%#17333.7%
N Dakota Stoffense vsUC Davisdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
UC Davis allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.2%#11558.4%#16458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.9%#10541.2%#21339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.5%#13433.6%#4238.0%
Three35.4%#9333.8%#17233.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
UC Davis
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365
Off reb %
25.2%
#334
Def reb %
69.5%
#182
Turnover %
17.9%
#266
Forced TO %
19.8%
#30
FT rate
40.5%
#53
FT allowed
39.1%
#290
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
N Dakota St
+5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#89
Def reb %
74.5%
#15
Turnover %
15.6%
#112
Forced TO %
18.7%
#65
FT rate
30.6%
#289
FT allowed
29.2%
#46
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.8
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+0.8
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn−1.1
Foul shots allowed+1.5

N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.0 (#24 of 365) to UC Davis’s +0.1 (#176).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

UC Davis2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Connor SevillaGJr6'0"31-3131.113.31.70.81.453.4%39.9%5.490.3%22.2%
2Marcus WilsonGFr6'3"33-3326.412.53.23.92.248.1%32.4%3.178.5%29.1%
20Isaiah ChappellFSo6'9"33-1824.18.54.61.01.052.3%35.6%4.960.0%20.6%
0Brayden FagbemiGJr6'0"31-325.47.03.54.32.046.8%27.3%1.864.7%19.7%
7Niko RocakFSr6'9"32-3224.29.45.21.81.859.7%36.1%2.668.1%21.8%
36Nils CooperGJr6'6"27-2324.712.34.61.91.657.2%23.8%1.673.7%26.2%
1Carl Daughtery Jr.GSr6'3"24-926.510.03.30.80.655.1%42.0%4.773.3%19.4%
21Omer SuljanovicFFr6'8"32-914.75.63.00.41.246.6%24.6%1.868.3%25.5%
5Jalen StokesGFr6'5"27-713.94.72.50.80.948.9%33.3%0.887.8%19.7%
10Cyril Franklin Jr.GSo6'5"19-07.11.30.50.70.552.2%0.0%0.333.3%13.6%
8Chase RawlinsGFr6'5"19-05.61.60.40.70.554.8%42.9%0.477.8%17.8%
14Abdullah AmzilFFr6'7"15-03.10.50.50.30.135.7%20.0%0.3100.0%10.3%
11Ylan Esso-EssisGSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
UC DavisN Dakota St
Efficiency
107.2
110.7
107.8
106.2
69.3
67.8
—
—
Shooting
51.8%
53.2%
51.9%
53.3%
34.4%
35.4%
75.3%
71.4%
40.5%
30.6%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
15.6%
19.8%
18.7%
25.2%
32.9%
30.5%
25.5%
9.2%
9.2%
10.3%
9.3%
Style
43.5%
42.8%
37.0%
43.2%
13.1%
11.9%
59.9%
53.0%
34.0%
31.2%
Roster
2.51
2.81
6'4.5"
6'4.2"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
UC Davis
Returning minutes: 99.7%Returning production: 100.1%
ESPN hasn't posted UC Davis's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

N Dakota St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Dakota St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Wed, Nov 52025-26N Dakota St 68 – 80 UC Davis

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.