CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSiegel Center, Richmond, VA

Coppin St

Efficiency #364

2025-26: 7-24 · 5-9 conf

VCU

Efficiency #39

2025-26: 28-8 · 18-3 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · 7:00 PM ET

63.0

win 2%

Projected

87.7

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: VCU −24.7 · total 150.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VCU 69.1, Coppin St 69.1 → 69.9 possessions

+3.4

VCU offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.9

Coppin St offense vs VCU defense

−10.8

Projected total

150.7

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VCU offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.9

Coppin St offense vs VCU defense

+10.8

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

VCU by 24.7

24.7

Coppin St side ◂▸ VCU side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VCU.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, VCU is the faster team (69.2, #132 of 365) and Coppin St the slower (69.0, #144). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

150.7

model

Projected team totals

63.0 / 87.7

Coppin St / VCU

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#119

Coppin St

69.1#109

VCU

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCoppin St

Where Coppin St struggles: shooting

Coppin St shoots an effective 45.9% (#350); VCU allows 49.0% (#69). Expect about 47.0%, 4.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.1 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageVCU

Where VCU scores: shooting

VCU shoots an effective 53.6% (#78); Coppin St allows 55.4% (#339). Expect about 54.8%, 3.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.0 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversCoppin St

Coppin St turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 20.0% is worth roughly -4.0 points per 100 possessions against Coppin St's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (VCU, Coppin St, Coppin St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coppin St at about 33.2% of its shots from three, VCU about 45.3%.

ClashCoppin St

Style match: 3-point volume

Coppin St rarely shoots threes (35.2% of its shots); VCU runs teams off the line (35.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.2% — both habits push the same way.

GlassVCU

VCU owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.4% is worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions for VCU's offense.

Coppin St has the ball

OffenseVCU allowsvs D1 avg

45.9% #350

49.0% #69

-6.1 pt/100

22.3% #363

17.0% #158

-4.0 pt/100

30.4% #183

30.0% #162

-0.1 pt/100

38.5% #90

32.8% #126

+0.0 pt/100

67.2% #342

—

-0.5 pt/100

Coppin St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -10.7 pts/100

VCU has the ball

OffenseCoppin St allowsvs D1 avg

53.6% #78

55.4% #339

+5.0 pt/100

15.1% #75

17.5% #118

+0.6 pt/100

31.6% #139

34.8% #333

+1.8 pt/100

42.0% #30

42.9% #339

+1.0 pt/100

73.6% #150

—

+0.1 pt/100

VCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin Stoffense vsVCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Coppin St shoots

40.8

4.1

19.7

35.4

VCU allows

44.1

6.5

14.1

35.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#336	52.9%#23	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.1%#357	44.4%#279	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.7%#356	36.4%#119	38.0%
Three	30.7%#326	33.0%#125	33.7%

VCUoffense vsCoppin Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

VCU shoots

39.0

7.4

9.7

43.9

Coppin St allows

38.8

3.0

14.9

43.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.1%#271	60.1%#231	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.5%#208	46.5%#327	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.7%#9	35.5%#91	38.0%
Three	36.3%#46	38.3%#360	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin St

−5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#353 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#183

Def reb %

65.2%

#333

Turnover %

22.3%

#363

Forced TO %

17.5%

#118

FT rate

38.5%

#90

FT allowed

42.9%

#339

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security−3.8

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−2.0

VCU

+4.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#33 of 365

Off reb %

31.6%

#139

Def reb %

70.0%

#162

Turnover %

15.1%

#75

Forced TO %

17.0%

#158

FT rate

42.0%

#30

FT allowed

32.8%

#126

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+1.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

VCU has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.3 (#33 of 365) to Coppin St’s −5.6 (#353).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
17	Lazar Djokovic	F	Jr	6'11"	35-34	27.6	13.2	5.2	1.1	1.5	54.2%	34.3%	1.9	78.3%	25.5%
6	Terrence Hill Jr.	G	So	6'3"	36-2	25.1	15.0	2.7	2.8	1.1	57.6%	37.0%	6.1	84.4%	30.5%
0	Brandon Jennings	G	So	6'4"	36-35	24.9	8.5	3.6	2.1	1.3	49.3%	43.1%	1.6	85.5%	20.5%
1	Nyk Lewis	G	Fr	6'1"	35-35	23.7	8.7	4.5	1.6	1.0	51.4%	36.2%	3.6	74.8%	21.1%
8	Michael Belle	F	Jr	6'8"	36-0	22.4	7.3	5.0	1.1	0.9	59.3%	50.0%	1.1	50.0%	18.6%
2	Jadrian Tracey	G	Sr	6'6"	36-36	21.9	9.6	2.8	1.8	1.8	51.9%	36.0%	4.8	68.7%	27.7%
15	Tyrell Ward	G	Jr	6'6"	31-0	13.7	5.7	2.2	0.5	0.9	52.2%	30.6%	2.0	63.8%	25.9%
4	Ahmad Nowell	G	So	6'0"	28-0	10.5	4.5	1.2	0.6	0.5	58.8%	41.4%	2.1	75.0%	22.3%
14	Jordan Tillery	G	Fr	6'5"	11-0	7.3	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.3	65.6%	57.1%	0.6	62.5%	30.0%
21	Christian Fermin	F	Sr	6'10"	4-0	12.8	0.8	2.5	0.8	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	30.0%	5.9%
10	Jordann Dumont	F	So	6'8"	9-0	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	33.3%	0.0%	0.7	100.0%	24.6%
7	Obinnaya Okafor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Coppin St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

3-5

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

6-2

Road

11-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 66–70	+6.5	W+2.5	150.5	U136	95.9	101.7	68.8
Mar 2	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 70–90	+18.5	L−1.5	140.0	O160	98.9	127.2	70.8
Feb 28	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	141.5	O144	104.5	113.6	66.0
Feb 21	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 71–65 OT	+3.0	W+9.0	127.0	O136	96.4	88.3	73.6
Feb 16	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 59–57	+5.0	W+7.0	139.0	U116	87.6	84.6	67.4
Feb 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	W 58–56	+11.0	W+13.0	145.5	U114	92.8	89.6	62.5
Feb 7	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 65–47	+1.0	W+19.0	133.5	U112	97.8	70.7	66.4
Feb 2	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 53–72	+14.0	L−5.0	146.5	U125	85.8	116.6	61.8
Jan 31	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 80–89	+2.5	L−6.5	155.5	O169	105.5	117.4	75.8
Jan 24	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 76–103	+12.5	L−14.5	141.5	O179	94.7	128.4	80.2

VCU

Against the spread

Season

17-17-2

Home

7-10

Road

5-4-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-20

Home

10-7

Road

3-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −6.5

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#3IllinoisAdjEM #4	N	L 55–76	+12.0	L−9.0	150.5	U131	83.4	115.2	66.0
Mar 19	#6North CarolinaAdjEM #29	N	W 82–78 OT	+2.5	W+6.5	151.0	O160	107.1	101.9	76.5
Mar 15	DaytonAdjEM #62	N	W 70–62	−2.5	W+5.5	138.5	U132	108.4	96.0	64.6
Mar 14	Saint Joseph'sAdjEM #118	N	W 77–64	−6.5	W+6.5	146.0	U141	118.4	98.4	65.0
Mar 13	DuquesneAdjEM #131	N	W 71–66	−7.0	L−2.0	153.0	U137	109.6	101.9	64.8
Mar 6	DaytonAdjEM #62	A	W 68–62	+1.5	W+7.5	147.0	U130	112.1	102.2	60.6
Mar 3	George MasonAdjEM #83	H	W 70–65	−10.0	L−5.0	147.5	U135	115.1	106.9	60.8
Feb 28	FordhamAdjEM #170	H	W 82–63	−12.5	W+6.5	143.5	O145	120.2	92.4	68.2
Feb 20	#18Saint LouisAdjEM #20	A	L 75–88	+7.5	L−5.5	164.5	U163	97.3	114.1	77.1
Feb 17	G WashingtonAdjEM #68	H	W 89–75	−6.0	W+8.0	161.5	O164	130.2	109.7	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Coppin StVCU

Efficiency

97.4

115.3

115.9

104.1

69.1

—

Shooting

45.9%

53.6%

45.8%

53.0%

30.7%

36.3%

67.2%

73.6%

38.5%

42.0%

Ball control & glass

22.3%

15.1%

17.5%

17.0%

30.4%

31.6%

34.8%

30.0%

13.0%

9.0%

12.0%

9.0%

Style

35.2%

43.8%

43.2%

40.2%

13.9%

14.3%

51.5%

51.9%

49.2%

37.9%

Roster

3.20

2.49

6'5.6"

6'5.4"

—

83.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Coppin St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

VCU

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 87.1%

Lost

Barry Evans 26.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Keyshawn Mitchell 5.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Obinnaya Okafor no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 22	2025-26	Coppin St 58 – 101 VCU

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.