CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Conference gameLionTree Arena, San Diego, CA
CA Baptist
Efficiency #102
2025-26: 25-9 · 15-5 conf
@
UC San Diego
Efficiency #121
2025-26: 23-11 · 13-9 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · 10:30 PM ET
67.8
win 40%
Projected
70.8
win 60%
No line posted yet.
Model: UCSD −3.1 · total 138.6 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: UC San Diego 68.2, CA Baptist 67.4 → 67.3 possessions
−2.2
UC San Diego offense vs CA Baptist defense
−4.2
CA Baptist offense vs UC San Diego defense
−3.3
Projected total
138.6
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
UC San Diego offense vs CA Baptist defense
−4.2
CA Baptist offense vs UC San Diego defense
+3.3
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
UC San Diego by 3.1
3.1
CA Baptist side ◂▸ UC San Diego side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.5 against a projected 138.6, and the margin steps add to +3.0 against +3.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help UC San Diego.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, UC San Diego is the faster team (69.7, #102 of 365) and CA Baptist the slower (67.5, #223). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.3
per team, 40 min
Projected total
138.6
model
Projected team totals
67.8 / 70.8
CA Baptist / UC San Diego
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.4#256
CA Baptist
68.2#190
UC San Diego

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageCA Baptist
Where CA Baptist struggles: shooting
CA Baptist shoots an effective 48.3% (#308); UC San Diego allows 48.4% (#45). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageUC San Diego
Where UC San Diego struggles: the offensive glass
UC San Diego rebounds 26.1% of its own misses (#320); CA Baptist lets opponents grab 27.2% of their own misses (#41). Expect about 25.8%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashCA Baptist
Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding
CA Baptist (#13 in offensive rebounding) against UC San Diego (#38 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.7%. Historically CA Baptist's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (UC San Diego's defense, CA Baptist's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect CA Baptist at about 36.3% of its shots from three, UC San Diego about 36.7%.
ClashCA Baptist
Style clash: ball movement
CA Baptist creates off the dribble (assists on 39.9% of its baskets); UC San Diego allows assists on 56.9% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 47.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).
ClashCA Baptist
Style clash: 3-point volume
CA Baptist rarely shoots threes (32.0% of its shots); UC San Diego lets opponents take 43.9% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
CA Baptist has the ball
OffenseUC San Diego allowsvs D1 avg
48.3% #308
48.4% #45
-4.5 pt/100
17.9% #267
16.8% #168
-0.8 pt/100
37.5% #13
27.0% #38
+2.0 pt/100
35.9% #154
29.3% #48
-0.4 pt/100
71.3% #230
—
-0.1 pt/100
CA Baptist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.8 pts/100
UC San Diego has the ball
OffenseCA Baptist allowsvs D1 avg
52.6% #124
46.3% #16
-2.5 pt/100
16.5% #164
17.0% #154
+0.0 pt/100
26.1% #320
27.2% #41
-2.8 pt/100
31.2% #277
36.6% #229
-0.1 pt/100
69.3% #290
—
-0.3 pt/100
UC San Diego net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
CA Baptistoffense vsUC San Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
CA Baptist shoots
UC San Diego allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim51.0%#35454.6%#5358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)31.5%#33635.1%#5939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)43.1%#3639.5%#21838.0%
Three33.4%#20031.5%#4533.7%
UC San Diegooffense vsCA Baptistdefense
Share of shots by zone
UC San Diego shoots
CA Baptist allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.3%#11251.3%#958.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)42.6%#11039.7%#18639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.1%#18338.4%#17438.0%
Three32.8%#24129.5%#533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
CA Baptist
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#69 of 365
Off reb %
37.5%
#13
Def reb %
72.8%
#41
Turnover %
17.9%
#267
Forced TO %
17.0%
#154
FT rate
35.9%
#154
FT allowed
36.6%
#229
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.3
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.8
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed−0.4
UC San Diego
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#159 of 365
Off reb %
26.1%
#320
Def reb %
73.0%
#38
Turnover %
16.5%
#164
Forced TO %
16.8%
#168
FT rate
31.2%
#277
FT allowed
29.3%
#48
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.4
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.2
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.5

CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#69 of 365) to UC San Diego’s +0.6 (#159).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

CA Baptist2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
33Martel WilliamsGSr6'3"33-3333.212.84.81.51.744.6%32.7%3.377.6%26.4%
3Jayden JacksonGSr6'4"28-2629.09.03.21.71.443.2%34.6%5.675.0%22.7%
8Jonathan GrimanFJr6'11"31-1923.36.15.90.51.157.9%0.0%0.252.0%16.2%
11Jordan MullerGFr6'0"34-920.64.41.01.81.441.8%35.2%2.775.6%17.7%
42Bradey HenigeFSo7'0"33-1520.24.95.50.51.053.5%—0.055.8%16.2%
25Thomas NdongFJr6'10"32-1917.54.96.50.41.057.2%20.0%0.262.0%17.5%
12Devon MalcolmFSr6'5"33-1513.65.83.40.50.948.0%30.3%1.061.8%28.5%
5Miles DanielsGSr6'2"21-011.32.61.50.50.848.0%35.0%1.046.7%18.4%
6Rene D'AmelioFFr6'9"18-010.62.63.00.20.552.9%25.0%0.452.4%16.7%
10Monty BowserGSr6'6"13-18.32.11.40.20.243.8%29.4%1.375.0%16.4%
35Nate GarciaCFr7'0"15-06.62.61.20.10.452.9%—0.084.0%20.5%
2Jalen DollarGSo5'10"7-05.12.10.30.10.0100.0%80.0%0.775.0%12.4%
4Chase Mayo HarmonGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
15Mouhamadou DioumFSo6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
24OJ BlanksonGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CA BaptistUC San Diego
Efficiency
107.2
107.3
103.5
104.8
67.4
68.2
—
—
Shooting
48.3%
52.6%
47.4%
55.0%
33.4%
32.8%
71.3%
69.3%
35.9%
31.2%
Ball control & glass
17.9%
16.5%
17.0%
16.8%
37.5%
26.1%
27.2%
27.0%
9.9%
8.7%
9.6%
10.2%
Style
32.0%
42.3%
48.4%
47.7%
10.9%
15.9%
39.9%
55.5%
30.7%
30.4%
Roster
3.00
2.51
6'6"
6'6.3"
82.6%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
CA Baptist
Returning minutes: 82.6%Returning production: 74.2%
Lost
  • Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • OJ Blankson no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Mayo Harmon no D1 minutes last season
  • Mouhamadou Dioum no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UC San Diego
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted UC San Diego's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.