CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gamePremier America Credit Union Arena, Northridge, CA

Cal Poly

Efficiency #240

2025-26: 14-19 · 10-11 conf

CSU Northridge

Efficiency #196

2025-26: 20-14 · 13-9 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · 10:00 PM ET

81.1

win 29%

Projected

87.3

win 71%

No line posted yet.

Model: CSUN −6.3 · total 168.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: CSU Northridge 72.4, Cal Poly 72.8 → 76.9 possessions

+18.5

CSU Northridge offense vs Cal Poly defense

+1.7

Cal Poly offense vs CSU Northridge defense

−0.1

Projected total

168.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

CSU Northridge offense vs Cal Poly defense

+1.7

Cal Poly offense vs CSU Northridge defense

+0.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.4

CSU Northridge by 6.3

6.3

Cal Poly side ◂▸ CSU Northridge side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 168.3 against a projected 168.4, and the margin steps add to +6.2 against +6.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help CSU Northridge.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 76.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cal Poly is the faster team (76.1, #1 of 365) and CSU Northridge the slower (75.3, #3). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

76.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

168.4

model

Projected team totals

81.1 / 87.3

Cal Poly / CSU Northridge

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

72.8#1

Cal Poly

72.4#3

CSU Northridge

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Track meet

CSU Northridge averages 75.3 possessions per 40, Cal Poly 76.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 79 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashCal Poly

Style match: 3-point volume

Cal Poly takes 52.6% of its shots from three; CSU Northridge lets opponents take 48.6% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 55.9% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageCal Poly

Where Cal Poly struggles: ball control

Cal Poly turns it over on 19.9% of possessions (#346); CSU Northridge forces turnovers on 16.4% of opponent possessions (#191). Expect about 18.3%, 1.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCSU Northridge

Where CSU Northridge scores: shooting

CSU Northridge shoots an effective 51.3% (#183); Cal Poly allows 53.8% (#292). Expect about 52.6%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashCal Poly

Style match: paint scoring

Cal Poly gets only 38.5% of its points in the paint; CSU Northridge protects the paint (35.7% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.3% — both habits push the same way.

Cal Poly has the ball

OffenseCSU Northridge allowsvs D1 avg

51.5% #170

51.6% #191

+0.5 pt/100

19.9% #346

16.4% #191

-1.9 pt/100

30.0% #202

26.6% #26

-1.3 pt/100

34.9% #182

34.3% #162

-0.1 pt/100

78.5% #12

—

+0.5 pt/100

Cal Poly net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.3 pts/100

CSU Northridge has the ball

OffenseCal Poly allowsvs D1 avg

51.3% #183

53.8% #292

+1.8 pt/100

17.5% #239

16.2% #209

-0.1 pt/100

31.9% #130

29.6% #141

+0.4 pt/100

34.2% #200

34.1% #154

-0.1 pt/100

66.8% #345

—

-0.5 pt/100

CSU Northridge net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Polyoffense vsCSU Northridgedefense

Share of shots by zone

Cal Poly shoots

38.2

3.5

4.4

53.9

CSU Northridge allows

33.0

4.9

13.1

49.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.7%#209	58.4%#162	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.0%#148	37.4%#122	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.5%#357	40.2%#248	38.0%
Three	33.0%#228	34.4%#210	33.7%

CSU Northridgeoffense vsCal Polydefense

Share of shots by zone

CSU Northridge shoots

48.7

6.0

12.0

33.3

Cal Poly allows

41.3

5.9

12.5

40.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.0%#194	61.5%#284	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	32.7%#319	35.5%#72	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.9%#62	41.2%#282	38.0%
Three	32.4%#260	34.7%#231	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Cal Poly

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#270 of 365

Off reb %

30.0%

#202

Def reb %

70.4%

#141

Turnover %

19.9%

#346

Forced TO %

16.2%

#209

FT rate

34.9%

#182

FT allowed

34.1%

#154

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−2.1

Forcing turnovers−0.3

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

CSU Northridge

+1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#133 of 365

Off reb %

31.9%

#130

Def reb %

73.4%

#26

Turnover %

17.5%

#239

Forced TO %

16.4%

#191

FT rate

34.2%

#200

FT allowed

34.3%

#162

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.5

Defensive rebounding+1.3

Ball security−0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−0.2

Foul shots allowed+0.2

CSU Northridge has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.1 (#133 of 365) to Cal Poly’s −2.0 (#270).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

CSU Northridge2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Josiah Davis	G	Sr	6'3"	34-34	33.4	15.9	4.6	7.4	4.7	46.6%	16.7%	1.1	70.0%	31.7%
2	Larry Hughes II	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	31.6	17.7	2.9	0.9	1.4	53.3%	39.5%	7.8	86.0%	28.0%
11	Mahmoud Fofana	F	Sr	6'6"	34-34	29.5	11.0	7.9	1.5	1.1	63.2%	20.0%	0.1	60.5%	17.4%
23	Jordan Brinson	G	Sr	6'2"	33-1	18.3	3.5	2.8	1.6	0.5	50.0%	34.9%	1.9	85.0%	10.9%
1	Davius Loury	F	So	6'7"	33-22	16.9	4.9	2.2	0.8	0.8	42.4%	29.4%	3.1	64.7%	19.6%
5	James Evans Jr.	G	Fr	6'6"	34-10	15.2	6.0	1.9	1.2	0.8	44.6%	33.0%	2.6	58.8%	25.1%
21	Grady Lewis	F	Sr	6'9"	31-2	9.8	4.0	2.5	0.4	0.4	65.5%	—	0.0	38.9%	19.6%
15	Jai Chisolm	G	Jr	6'3"	33-1	8.8	2.9	1.4	0.2	0.4	42.9%	20.3%	1.9	60.0%	22.3%
13	Aleks Szymczyk	C	Jr	6'10"	26-0	8.2	2.9	2.8	0.2	0.4	53.7%	18.2%	0.4	58.1%	19.4%
24	Greg Gazarian	G	Fr	6'0"	9-0	3.2	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	31.3%
20	Robert Thibiant	G	Sr	6'2"	8-0	2.1	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.3	31.8%	14.3%	0.9	—	39.3%
6	Joseph Barrio	G	Jr	6'1"	5-0	1.8	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	5.7%
3	Jalen Barbee	G	Sr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Max Rehl	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Omer Dahan	G	Fr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
—	Quinton Webb	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cal Poly2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Hamad Mousa	G	So	6'8"	32-30	31.4	20.4	6.3	2.0	2.5	53.9%	37.2%	7.1	87.8%	32.2%
9	Peter Bandelj	G	So	6'4"	32-32	30.8	13.0	4.0	3.3	2.4	50.8%	34.7%	5.2	85.2%	23.5%
14	Cayden Ward	G	So	6'5"	33-31	29.4	14.5	6.3	1.6	2.9	53.5%	31.0%	5.2	75.3%	27.6%
5	Guzman Vasilic	G	So	6'4"	30-17	23.2	7.6	2.4	1.1	1.0	54.2%	37.1%	5.0	77.8%	17.4%
3	Jake Davis	G	Jr	6'4"	32-18	21.1	5.4	3.1	1.8	1.3	41.8%	26.0%	3.3	72.5%	18.1%
11	Austin Goode	F	Fr	6'7"	32-16	16.3	5.2	2.5	0.9	0.8	51.4%	30.9%	2.5	73.7%	18.1%
7	Ali Assran	F	Fr	6'9"	31-5	12.7	3.5	3.4	0.7	1.2	46.6%	21.4%	0.9	59.6%	19.5%
13	Troy Plumtree	F	Fr	6'6"	30-2	12.2	4.8	2.4	0.7	1.1	57.5%	22.6%	1.0	66.7%	22.4%
4	Kieran Elliott	G	Jr	6'6"	18-10	16.9	4.9	3.2	0.6	0.6	54.8%	35.0%	1.1	82.6%	14.5%
8	Jackson Mosley	PG	Jr	5'10"	17-0	12.5	5.6	1.2	0.8	0.4	47.6%	29.2%	2.8	70.8%	24.7%
21	Luka Tarlac	G	Sr	6'7"	12-3	15.1	3.0	1.8	2.1	1.5	46.7%	18.2%	0.9	53.3%	16.3%
15	Aaron Price Jr.	PF	Sr	6'8"	21-1	6.1	2.0	1.0	0.3	0.4	59.1%	50.0%	0.3	50.0%	17.0%
1	Jess Esso Essis	G	Fr	6'10"	7-0	17.4	8.6	3.6	1.0	1.6	61.9%	41.4%	4.1	88.9%	25.5%
0	Jason Scott	G	Fr	6'4"	8-0	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.4	50.0%	57.1%	0.9	62.5%	23.5%
22	Eric Brown	F	Jr	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.6	0.6	0.0	0.4	25.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	21.1%
2	Braden Freeman	F	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Cal Poly

Against the spread

Season

17-13-1

Home

7-4-1

Road

9-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13-1

Home

6-6

Road

11-5-1

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +0.3

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	N	L 69–72	+4.5	W+1.5	163.0	U141	94.2	98.3	73.2
Mar 7	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	H	W 108–76	−9.0	W+23.0	173.0	O184	131.0	92.2	82.5
Mar 5	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	A	L 85–107	+9.5	L−12.5	160.5	O192	108.1	136.1	78.6
Feb 28	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	A	L 64–80	+7.5	L−8.5	164.0	U144	91.2	114.0	70.2
Feb 26	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	H	W 102–92	−5.5	W+4.5	161.5	O194	127.1	114.6	80.3
Feb 19	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	A	W 86–75	+11.0	W+22.0	161.0	P161	104.3	91.0	82.4
Feb 14	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	H	W 89–79	+4.5	W+14.5	159.0	O168	133.5	118.5	66.7
Feb 12	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	W 79–73	+5.5	W+11.5	161.0	U152	99.2	91.7	79.6
Feb 7	UC DavisAdjEM #185	A	L 58–67	+6.0	L−3.0	169.0	U125	83.6	96.6	69.4
Feb 5	CSU NorthridgeAdjEM #196	H	L 96–97	+2.5	W+1.5	178.5	O193	120.5	121.7	79.7

CSU Northridge

Against the spread

Season

15-17

Home

9-4

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-13

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.9

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 13	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	N	L 78–93	+4.0	L−11.0	153.0	O171	110.4	131.7	70.6
Mar 12	UC San DiegoAdjEM #121	N	W 80–70	+2.0	W+12.0	153.5	U150	110.2	96.4	72.6
Mar 7	FullertonAdjEM #205	H	L 77–90	−6.0	L−19.0	170.5	U167	93.1	108.9	82.7
Mar 5	BakersfieldAdjEM #339	A	W 86–84	−8.0	L−6.0	165.0	O170	108.2	105.7	79.5
Feb 28	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	A	L 84–95	−5.5	L−16.5	158.0	O179	105.8	119.6	79.4
Feb 26	UC IrvineAdjEM #105	H	L 67–68	−1.0	L−2.0	154.0	U135	91.7	93.0	73.1
Feb 21	Long Beach StAdjEM #267	A	W 78–76	−3.5	L−1.5	157.5	U154	108.7	105.9	71.8
Feb 19	Santa BarbaraAdjEM #140	A	W 85–83 OT	+5.5	W+7.5	156.5	O168	102.1	99.7	83.2
Feb 14	Hawai'iAdjEM #96	H	W 84–60	+3.0	W+27.0	163.0	U144	117.1	83.6	71.7
Feb 7	UC RiversideAdjEM #288	H	W 88–74	−10.5	W+3.5	159.5	O162	120.9	101.6	72.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Cal PolyCSU Northridge

Efficiency

108.0

107.8

111.4

108.9

72.8

72.4

—

Shooting

51.5%

51.3%

53.7%

52.6%

33.0%

32.4%

78.5%

66.8%

34.9%

34.2%

Ball control & glass

19.9%

17.5%

16.2%

16.4%

30.0%

31.9%

29.6%

26.6%

9.5%

10.7%

11.4%

10.1%

Style

52.6%

33.6%

38.5%

50.4%

16.1%

14.8%

49.6%

56.6%

32.1%

26.5%

Roster

2.06

3.43

6'5.6"

6'4.8"

—

83.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Cal Poly

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cal Poly's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

CSU Northridge

Returning minutes: 83.8%Returning production: 81.4%

Lost

Joshua O'Garro 32.5 mpg, 14.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Max Rehl no D1 minutes last season
Jalen Barbee no D1 minutes last season
Omer Dahan no D1 minutes last season
Quinton Webb no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Thu, Feb 5	2025-26	CSU Northridge 97 – 96 Cal Poly
Thu, Jan 8	2025-26	Cal Poly 90 – 95 CSU Northridge

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.