CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameAmerica First Events Center, Cedar City, UT

Idaho St

Efficiency #253

2025-26: 13-20 · 6-14 conf

Southern Utah

Efficiency #293

2025-26: 10-22 · 6-13 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · TBD

75.7

win 42%

Projected

78.0

win 58%

No line posted yet.

Model: SUU −2.4 · total 153.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Southern Utah 70.3, Idaho St 67.0 → 68.9 possessions

+1.2

Southern Utah offense vs Idaho St defense

+1.3

Idaho St offense vs Southern Utah defense

+2.9

Projected total

153.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Southern Utah offense vs Idaho St defense

+1.3

Idaho St offense vs Southern Utah defense

−2.9

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

Southern Utah by 2.4

2.4

Idaho St side ◂▸ Southern Utah side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.6 against a projected 153.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Southern Utah.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Southern Utah is the faster team (70.9, #59 of 365) and Idaho St the slower (67.0, #243). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.9

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.7

model

Projected team totals

75.7 / 78.0

Idaho St / Southern Utah

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.0#292

Idaho St

70.3#34

Southern Utah

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashIdaho St

Style match: ball movement

Idaho St creates off the dribble (assists on 47.0% of its baskets); Southern Utah breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.9% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 45.4% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Southern Utah's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Idaho St at about 35.0% of its shots from three, Southern Utah about 34.6%.

AdvantageIdaho St

Where Idaho St scores: the offensive glass

Idaho St rebounds 32.8% of its own misses (#94); Southern Utah lets opponents grab 33.6% of their own misses (#309). Expect about 33.6%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSouthern Utah

Where Southern Utah scores: shooting

Southern Utah shoots an effective 50.7% (#200); Idaho St allows 54.5% (#315). Expect about 52.6%, 1.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

Idaho St has the ball

OffenseSouthern Utah allowsvs D1 avg

51.8% #151

53.2% #276

+1.9 pt/100

17.0% #204

14.8% #303

+1.4 pt/100

32.8% #94

33.6% #309

+2.0 pt/100

37.9% #104

29.8% #55

-0.2 pt/100

74.1% #127

—

+0.1 pt/100

Idaho St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.2 pts/100

Southern Utah has the ball

OffenseIdaho St allowsvs D1 avg

50.7% #200

54.5% #315

+1.9 pt/100

20.3% #352

14.7% #309

-0.9 pt/100

28.8% #239

27.9% #63

-1.4 pt/100

33.1% #235

38.0% #260

+0.1 pt/100

71.5% #221

—

-0.1 pt/100

Southern Utah net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho Stoffense vsSouthern Utahdefense

Share of shots by zone

Idaho St shoots

38.3

8.9

11.1

41.8

Southern Utah allows

46.3

5.6

19.0

29.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.1%#191	57.5%#132	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.5%#131	35.1%#60	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.9%#39	42.7%#324	38.0%
Three	33.6%#192	38.0%#358	33.7%

Southern Utahoffense vsIdaho Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Southern Utah shoots

41.8

6.9

15.9

35.4

Idaho St allows

40.5

7.5

15.3

36.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.3%#113	61.8%#296	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#219	45.2%#303	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.0%#291	45.3%#351	38.0%
Three	33.0%#231	34.5%#220	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Idaho St

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#173 of 365

Off reb %

32.8%

#94

Def reb %

72.1%

#63

Turnover %

17.0%

#204

Forced TO %

14.7%

#309

FT rate

37.9%

#104

FT allowed

38.0%

#260

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.8

Defensive rebounding+0.9

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.7

Southern Utah

−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#333 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#239

Def reb %

66.4%

#309

Turnover %

20.3%

#352

Forced TO %

14.8%

#303

FT rate

33.1%

#235

FT allowed

29.8%

#55

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−2.4

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−0.5

Foul shots allowed+1.4

Idaho St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#173 of 365) to Southern Utah’s −4.2 (#333).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Southern Utah2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Southern Utah's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
35	Jaiden Feroah	F	Sr	6'9"	32-32	29.9	13.5	6.7	1.8	2.2	62.3%	41.5%	2.9	86.5%	23.3%
3	Tanner Hayhurst	G	Jr	6'6"	31-26	29.2	10.3	3.4	1.5	0.9	60.9%	46.1%	3.7	87.7%	17.2%
1	Elijah Duval	G	Fr	6'3"	31-31	26.4	15.3	4.0	3.6	3.6	51.2%	31.9%	3.0	62.6%	38.0%
0	Isaiah Cottrell	F	Sr	6'11"	32-31	25.5	8.8	5.8	1.3	1.4	44.9%	20.4%	1.7	70.7%	22.5%
20	Dylan Jones	G	Sr	6'5"	30-14	24.8	8.1	1.8	0.8	0.9	56.4%	36.5%	4.9	82.4%	17.6%
24	Cale Barclay	F	Fr	6'8"	31-8	15.5	4.6	2.8	1.0	1.1	45.3%	13.2%	1.2	68.5%	20.3%
25	Kai Burdick	C	Sr	7'0"	32-9	13.7	4.0	3.3	0.6	0.8	66.7%	50.0%	0.1	40.0%	16.1%
4	Lorenzo Abellar	G	Sr	5'10"	31-4	11.5	3.0	0.8	1.5	0.8	36.5%	33.3%	0.8	78.0%	19.6%
9	Jalen Lee	G	So	6'7"	24-3	14.3	5.5	1.8	0.4	0.5	48.2%	35.2%	2.3	71.0%	22.2%
5	Zach Bell	G	Jr	6'2"	10-2	20.8	7.0	2.1	2.1	3.0	44.4%	21.1%	1.9	77.8%	26.5%
2	Logan Stephens	G	Sr	6'3"	20-0	9.1	4.4	1.6	1.3	1.2	38.7%	24.0%	1.3	74.1%	34.1%
13	Brayden Johnson	G	So	6'1"	11-0	5.3	0.9	0.3	0.8	0.2	30.8%	33.3%	0.5	50.0%	15.0%
7	Zeplin Kidd	G	Fr	6'7"	11-0	5.3	1.3	1.5	0.3	0.3	46.2%	25.0%	0.7	40.0%	15.7%
23	Chuks Isitua	F	So	6'10"	7-0	5.6	0.9	1.9	0.0	0.4	28.6%	—	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
10	Langston Binns	G	Sr	6'2"	4-0	6.3	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	38.5%	22.2%	2.3	0.0%	29.9%
11	Juok Riak	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Idaho St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Connor Hollenbeck	F	Sr	6'7"	33-33	29.9	13.2	4.7	1.6	1.8	52.5%	34.4%	3.9	79.1%	26.5%
12	Lachlan Brewer	G	So	6'6"	33-29	29.5	8.2	3.5	1.1	1.2	53.7%	31.0%	3.5	83.3%	17.2%
2	Jamison Guerra	PG	Sr	6'0"	33-28	25.7	8.8	2.3	3.8	1.5	50.0%	40.5%	2.5	78.4%	22.3%
24	Caleb Van De Griend	F	Sr	6'8"	33-1	18.2	11.8	6.4	0.6	1.1	57.8%	34.1%	1.2	67.5%	36.3%
5	Cheikh Sow	G	Jr	6'7"	30-7	17.6	2.9	3.2	0.4	0.6	32.4%	6.7%	1.0	76.9%	13.5%
30	Evan Otten	F	So	6'11"	33-32	14.8	4.7	3.8	0.3	0.9	52.7%	100.0%	0.0	60.7%	21.3%
0	Gus Etchison	PG	Sr	5'11"	32-5	13.2	8.8	1.4	2.1	1.2	53.1%	34.7%	3.2	66.1%	41.3%
13	Louis Bond	G	Fr	6'5"	24-2	14.0	4.9	1.9	0.5	0.9	51.2%	35.5%	1.3	84.6%	21.5%
32	Blake Daberkow	F	Sr	6'10"	32-0	8.0	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.6	54.1%	0.0%	0.2	65.9%	25.9%
21	Quin Patterson	G	Jr	6'7"	24-0	8.5	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.3	44.3%	27.3%	1.4	66.7%	14.0%
3	Landen Birley	G	Fr	6'4"	9-1	3.9	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
4	Jaedyn Brown	G	So	6'5"	3-0	6.0	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.3	25.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	17.7%
14	Kasen Carpenter	G	Sr	6'5"	7-0	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	31.8%
8	Trey Arland	G	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Idaho St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

5-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −5.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-13

Home

7-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +4.8

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	Portland StAdjEM #145	N	L 78–85	+5.5	L−1.5	141.0	O163	106.1	115.6	73.5
Mar 7	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	N	W 73–65	−4.5	W+3.5	142.5	U138	110.3	98.2	66.2
Mar 2	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	A	L 65–83	−1.0	L−19.0	160.5	U148	92.9	118.7	69.9
Feb 28	Weber StAdjEM #203	H	L 73–83	−2.0	L−12.0	153.0	O156	107.3	122.0	68.1
Feb 21	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	W 91–76	+2.5	W+17.5	144.5	O167	125.6	104.9	72.5
Feb 19	MontanaAdjEM #207	H	W 73–69	+1.0	W+5.0	150.0	U142	107.7	101.8	67.8
Feb 14	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 69–99	+7.0	L−23.0	146.5	O168	95.1	136.5	72.5
Feb 12	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 75–88	+3.5	L−9.5	147.5	O163	114.0	133.7	65.8
Feb 7	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	H	L 61–69	+2.0	L−6.0	151.5	U130	94.3	106.6	64.7
Feb 5	N ArizonaAdjEM #329	H	L 73–79	−8.0	L−14.0	141.5	O152	123.0	133.1	59.4

Southern Utah

Against the spread

Season

15-13-1

Home

5-5

Road

9-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +3.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

17-12

Home

6-4

Road

11-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +4.0

Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 12	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	N	L 63–69	+5.0	L−1.0	141.5	U132	88.3	96.7	71.3
Mar 7	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	H	L 75–82	+6.5	L−0.5	149.0	O157	107.2	117.2	69.9
Mar 5	Utah ValleyAdjEM #75	H	L 88–92	+10.0	W+6.0	150.0	O180	123.5	129.1	71.3
Feb 28	Utah TechAdjEM #216	H	W 81–67	+2.0	W+16.0	156.0	U148	122.1	101.0	66.3
Feb 21	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #263	A	L 83–87	+8.0	W+4.0	143.5	O170	110.6	115.9	75.1
Feb 19	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	A	L 74–78	+5.0	W+1.0	145.0	O152	110.5	116.5	67.0
Feb 14	UT ArlingtonAdjEM #171	A	W 78–73	+8.5	W+13.5	144.5	O151	111.7	104.5	69.8
Feb 12	CA BaptistAdjEM #102	H	L 66–83	+5.5	L−11.5	147.0	O149	97.6	122.7	67.7
Feb 7	Tarleton StAdjEM #238	H	L 59–62	−1.0	L−4.0	146.5	U121	85.8	90.2	68.8
Jan 31	Abilene ChrstnAdjEM #263	A	W 79–76	+6.0	W+9.0	152.0	O155	115.6	111.2	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Idaho StSouthern Utah

Efficiency

108.8

105.5

113.3

112.4

67.0

70.3

—

Shooting

51.8%

50.7%

52.9%

51.4%

33.6%

33.0%

74.1%

71.5%

37.9%

33.1%

Ball control & glass

17.0%

20.3%

14.7%

14.8%

32.8%

28.8%

27.9%

33.6%

10.2%

12.4%

8.8%

10.2%

Style

41.9%

35.5%

41.5%

48.0%

9.3%

13.2%

47.0%

49.6%

35.8%

32.1%

Roster

3.16

3.06

6'5.6"

6'6.5"

86.1%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Idaho St

Returning minutes: 86.1%Returning production: 90.8%

Lost

Martin Kheil 27.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Trey Arland no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Southern Utah

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Southern Utah's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.