CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Conference gameJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ

Montana

Efficiency #207

2025-26: 18-16 · 12-9 conf

N Arizona

Efficiency #329

2025-26: 10-22 · 4-15 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · TBD

74.5

win 57%

Projected

72.6

win 43%

No line posted yet.

Model: MONT −1.9 · total 147.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: N Arizona 66.0, Montana 69.8 → 67.4 possessions

−1.9

N Arizona offense vs Montana defense

−2.5

Montana offense vs N Arizona defense

+3.3

Projected total

147.1

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

N Arizona offense vs Montana defense

−2.5

Montana offense vs N Arizona defense

−3.3

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Montana by 1.9

1.9

Montana side ◂▸ N Arizona side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Arizona.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Montana is the faster team (71.1, #48 of 365) and N Arizona the slower (65.5, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.1

model

Projected team totals

74.5 / 72.6

Montana / N Arizona

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#67

Montana

66.0#342

N Arizona

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMontana

Where Montana scores: shooting

Montana shoots an effective 55.8% (#23); N Arizona allows 56.9% (#355). Expect about 56.8%, 5.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.8 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMontana

Montana gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.1% is worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions against Montana's offense.

AdvantageN Arizona

Where N Arizona struggles: the offensive glass

N Arizona rebounds 23.3% of its own misses (#348); Montana lets opponents grab 29.6% of their own misses (#143). Expect about 25.1%, 5.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.3 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

N Arizona averages 65.5 possessions per 40, Montana 71.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 68 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

TurnoversN Arizona

N Arizona protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for N Arizona's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Montana, N Arizona's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Montana at about 41.7% of its shots from three, N Arizona about 36.3%.

Montana has the ball

OffenseN Arizona allowsvs D1 avg

55.8% #23

56.9% #355

+7.8 pt/100

19.6% #340

16.6% #180

-1.8 pt/100

20.7% #363

33.4% #305

-3.3 pt/100

36.8% #135

32.7% #124

-0.1 pt/100

77.3% #27

—

+0.4 pt/100

Montana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100

N Arizona has the ball

OffenseMontana allowsvs D1 avg

51.7% #161

50.5% #129

-0.2 pt/100

16.0% #141

14.3% #326

+2.5 pt/100

23.3% #348

29.6% #143

-3.3 pt/100

31.8% #260

32.6% #120

-0.4 pt/100

68.9% #304

—

-0.3 pt/100

N Arizona net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Montanaoffense vsN Arizonadefense

Share of shots by zone

Montana shoots

37.3

7.1

13.9

41.7

N Arizona allows

42.8

5.2

11.7

40.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.5%#83	62.3%#307	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.3%#60	37.2%#115	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	45.9%#8	41.1%#278	38.0%
Three	36.6%#38	38.7%#362	33.7%

N Arizonaoffense vsMontanadefense

Share of shots by zone

N Arizona shoots

38.6

7.1

19.1

35.2

Montana allows

38.3

9.0

15.3

37.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#284	59.9%#221	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.5%#31	36.6%#103	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#101	38.5%#175	38.0%
Three	35.6%#79	32.3%#74	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Montana

−5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#348 of 365

Off reb %

20.7%

#363

Def reb %

70.4%

#143

Turnover %

19.6%

#340

Forced TO %

14.3%

#326

FT rate

36.8%

#135

FT allowed

32.6%

#120

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−3.1

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security−1.9

Forcing turnovers−1.6

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.7

N Arizona

−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#300 of 365

Off reb %

23.3%

#348

Def reb %

66.6%

#305

Turnover %

16.0%

#141

Forced TO %

16.6%

#180

FT rate

31.8%

#260

FT allowed

32.7%

#124

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.3

Defensive rebounding−0.9

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.1

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed+0.6

N Arizona has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.9 (#300 of 365) to Montana’s −5.2 (#348).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Montana2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Thompson	G	Fr	6'6"	33-33	29.3	8.4	4.0	1.3	1.2	58.9%	40.1%	5.2	80.6%	15.5%
32	Te'Jon Sawyer	F	Sr	6'8"	34-33	27.9	11.4	5.4	1.1	1.7	63.6%	35.8%	2.8	69.6%	21.3%
24	Kenyon Aguino	F	Fr	6'7"	34-34	23.6	8.4	4.2	1.5	1.2	57.9%	30.3%	1.0	71.8%	19.2%
8	Tyler Isaak	G	Jr	6'4"	34-17	22.4	6.1	2.8	2.3	0.9	50.0%	31.0%	2.5	85.3%	15.6%
3	Brooklyn Hicks	G	Jr	6'3"	34-8	22.1	9.0	3.8	0.9	1.0	55.7%	36.8%	3.4	70.0%	22.4%
11	Grant Kepley	G	So	6'4"	28-10	21.4	6.2	2.7	2.8	1.9	46.7%	30.0%	1.8	68.1%	21.2%
1	Trae Taylor	F	Sr	6'9"	29-0	8.3	2.2	1.6	0.1	0.4	67.5%	—	0.0	44.0%	14.7%
10	Connor Dick	G	So	6'3"	23-0	10.4	2.7	1.8	0.3	0.6	45.2%	23.5%	0.7	77.4%	16.4%
2	Chase Henderson	G	So	6'0"	19-0	7.3	2.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	51.3%	33.3%	0.8	81.8%	22.4%
5	Amari Jedkins	F	Jr	6'7"	23-1	5.3	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.1	51.9%	33.3%	0.5	60.0%	14.4%
13	Courtney Anderson Jr.	G	So	6'5"	10-0	11.3	5.7	1.4	0.2	0.7	71.4%	46.7%	3.0	77.8%	22.5%
7	Kadyn Betts	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	6.6	3.1	1.1	0.2	1.0	71.9%	62.5%	0.9	83.3%	26.7%
22	Luke Moxon	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

N Arizona2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
11	Ryan Abelman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-30	32.3	10.5	5.1	1.9	1.1	49.5%	36.1%	4.8	89.4%	20.3%
2	Chris Komin	G	Fr	6'3"	31-17	26.6	7.8	2.1	2.2	0.8	53.1%	35.7%	2.3	81.8%	17.3%
3	Traivar Jackson	F	Sr	6'7"	32-20	22.0	7.3	5.0	0.9	1.1	57.8%	—	0.0	64.8%	19.6%
9	Karl Poom	F	So	6'8"	32-2	19.6	8.9	3.3	1.2	1.7	54.2%	30.5%	1.8	54.4%	30.3%
7	Brennan Peterson	G	Fr	6'0"	32-16	19.4	4.8	0.7	2.0	0.8	56.5%	41.1%	2.8	71.4%	15.7%
24	Isaiah Shaw	G	Jr	6'8"	29-22	18.3	8.1	2.1	0.6	1.2	56.9%	46.4%	2.4	81.1%	25.1%
44	Arne Osojnik	G	Jr	6'6"	29-14	16.1	6.4	2.5	1.0	0.9	48.3%	32.4%	2.3	77.3%	26.8%
12	Diego Campisano	F	Sr	6'6"	26-9	17.8	7.0	2.4	0.5	0.5	52.1%	37.9%	3.7	76.9%	23.5%
22	Kavon Bradford	G	So	6'1"	28-12	16.2	5.3	1.6	1.7	1.3	44.9%	26.7%	0.5	65.6%	24.0%
5	Zack Davidson	F	So	6'9"	14-13	23.6	14.0	4.8	0.8	1.9	62.0%	25.0%	0.3	46.3%	33.1%
4	Oakland Fort	G	Sr	5'10"	29-5	11.1	3.1	0.8	1.5	0.5	57.3%	37.0%	0.9	50.0%	17.2%
82	Erez Poran	G	Fr	6'6"	13-0	5.4	0.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	32.1%	14.3%	0.5	33.3%	15.0%
8	Walker Timme	F	Jr	6'7"	1-0	8.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.7%
0	JT Amundsen	G	Fr	5'8"	4-0	1.8	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	50.0%	33.3%	0.8	—	22.2%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Montana2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Thompson	G	Fr	6'6"	33-33	29.3	8.4	4.0	1.3	1.2	58.9%	40.1%	5.2	80.6%	15.5%
32	Te'Jon Sawyer	F	Sr	6'8"	34-33	27.9	11.4	5.4	1.1	1.7	63.6%	35.8%	2.8	69.6%	21.3%
24	Kenyon Aguino	F	Fr	6'7"	34-34	23.6	8.4	4.2	1.5	1.2	57.9%	30.3%	1.0	71.8%	19.2%
8	Tyler Isaak	G	Jr	6'4"	34-17	22.4	6.1	2.8	2.3	0.9	50.0%	31.0%	2.5	85.3%	15.6%
3	Brooklyn Hicks	G	Jr	6'3"	34-8	22.1	9.0	3.8	0.9	1.0	55.7%	36.8%	3.4	70.0%	22.4%
11	Grant Kepley	G	So	6'4"	28-10	21.4	6.2	2.7	2.8	1.9	46.7%	30.0%	1.8	68.1%	21.2%
1	Trae Taylor	F	Sr	6'9"	29-0	8.3	2.2	1.6	0.1	0.4	67.5%	—	0.0	44.0%	14.7%
10	Connor Dick	G	So	6'3"	23-0	10.4	2.7	1.8	0.3	0.6	45.2%	23.5%	0.7	77.4%	16.4%
2	Chase Henderson	G	So	6'0"	19-0	7.3	2.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	51.3%	33.3%	0.8	81.8%	22.4%
5	Amari Jedkins	F	Jr	6'7"	23-1	5.3	1.3	1.1	0.0	0.1	51.9%	33.3%	0.5	60.0%	14.4%
13	Courtney Anderson Jr.	G	So	6'5"	10-0	11.3	5.7	1.4	0.2	0.7	71.4%	46.7%	3.0	77.8%	22.5%
7	Kadyn Betts	F	Jr	6'8"	9-0	6.6	3.1	1.1	0.2	1.0	71.9%	62.5%	0.9	83.3%	26.7%
22	Luke Moxon	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Montana

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

7-5-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

4-5-1

avg cover −3.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 4 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.2

Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	IdahoAdjEM #156	N	L 66–77	+3.5	L−7.5	146.5	U143	91.6	106.8	72.1
Mar 10	Portland StAdjEM #145	N	W 75–72	+3.5	W+6.5	145.0	O147	101.9	97.8	73.6
Mar 9	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	N	W 95–89	+4.5	W+10.5	152.5	O184	127.4	119.3	74.6
Mar 2	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 57–85	+5.5	L−22.5	155.0	U142	77.8	116.0	73.3
Feb 28	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	W 74–68	+1.0	W+7.0	140.0	O142	103.4	95.0	71.5
Feb 26	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 81–73	−8.0	P0.0	161.5	U154	112.5	101.4	72.0
Feb 21	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 72–92	+2.5	L−17.5	152.0	O164	106.6	136.2	67.5
Feb 19	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	L 69–73	−1.0	L−5.0	150.0	U142	101.8	107.7	67.8
Feb 14	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 71–82	−2.0	L−13.0	146.0	O153	107.5	124.2	66.0
Feb 7	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	W 73–68	−2.5	W+2.5	151.0	U141	101.2	94.3	72.1

N Arizona

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

7-6

Road

6-8

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 4 straightCovered 2 of 9 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

6-7

Road

4-10

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.9

Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	Idaho StAdjEM #253	N	L 65–73	+4.5	L−3.5	142.5	U138	98.2	110.3	66.2
Mar 2	Montana StAdjEM #130	H	L 65–76	+6.0	L−5.0	143.5	U141	106.6	124.6	61.0
Feb 28	E WashingtonAdjEM #189	A	L 57–88	+9.5	L−21.5	147.0	U145	89.7	138.6	63.5
Feb 26	IdahoAdjEM #156	A	L 58–78	+10.5	L−9.5	146.0	U136	95.6	128.6	60.7
Feb 21	N ColoradoAdjEM #146	A	L 77–78	+12.5	W+11.5	150.5	O155	115.6	117.1	66.6
Feb 14	Sacramento StAdjEM #280	H	W 79–74	−1.5	W+3.5	155.0	U153	111.2	104.2	71.0
Feb 12	Portland StAdjEM #145	H	L 68–77	+7.5	L−1.5	135.5	O145	107.6	121.8	63.2
Feb 7	Weber StAdjEM #203	A	L 53–72	+7.0	L−12.0	151.0	U125	90.3	122.6	58.7
Feb 5	Idaho StAdjEM #253	A	W 79–73	+8.0	W+14.0	141.5	O152	133.1	123.0	59.4
Jan 31	IdahoAdjEM #156	H	L 62–79	+5.5	L−11.5	147.0	U141	94.8	120.8	65.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MontanaN Arizona

Efficiency

106.8

105.0

108.3

115.1

69.8

66.0

—

Shooting

55.8%

51.7%

56.5%

50.7%

36.6%

35.6%

77.3%

68.9%

36.8%

31.8%

Ball control & glass

19.6%

16.0%

14.3%

16.6%

20.7%

23.3%

29.6%

33.4%

11.3%

8.4%

8.7%

8.9%

Style

41.8%

36.7%

41.8%

44.1%

10.3%

10.0%

55.1%

51.0%

30.6%

35.9%

Roster

2.40

2.54

6'5.5"

6'4.6"

84.4%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Montana

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 75.9%

Lost

Money Williams 31.2 mpg, 20.6 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Luke Moxon no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

N Arizona

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted N Arizona's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Mon, Jan 19	2025-26	Montana 98 – 72 N Arizona
Thu, Jan 1	2025-26	N Arizona 64 – 78 Montana

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.