CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceBanterra Center, Carbondale, IL
Washington St
Efficiency #174
2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf
@
S Illinois
Efficiency #107
2025-26: 16-16 · 10-11 conf
Thu, Dec 3 · 8:00 PM ET
70.8
win 30%
Projected
77.1
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: SIU −6.2 · total 147.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: S Illinois 69.4, Washington St 68.7 → 69.7 possessions
+3.1
S Illinois offense vs Washington St defense
−0.6
Washington St offense vs S Illinois defense
−2.8
Projected total
147.9
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
S Illinois offense vs Washington St defense
−0.6
Washington St offense vs S Illinois defense
+2.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
S Illinois by 6.2
6.2
Washington St side ◂▸ S Illinois side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help S Illinois.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Illinois is the faster team (69.8, #100 of 365) and Washington St the slower (68.9, #152). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.9
model
Projected team totals
70.8 / 77.1
Washington St / S Illinois
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.7#149
Washington St
69.4#91
S Illinois
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageWashington St
Where Washington St struggles: ball control
Washington St turns it over on 18.4% of possessions (#292); S Illinois forces turnovers on 18.5% of opponent possessions (#75). Expect about 18.8%, 2.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.5 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (S Illinois, Washington St, S Illinois's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Washington St at about 45.1% of its shots from three, S Illinois about 29.5%.
AdvantageS Illinois
Where S Illinois scores: ball control
S Illinois turns it over on 17.0% of possessions (#207); Washington St forces turnovers on 14.6% of opponent possessions (#317). Expect about 15.5%, 1.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions.
ClashWashington St
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Washington St (#40 in 3-point shooting) against S Illinois (#17 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 33.9%. Historically Washington St's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Washington St has the ball
OffenseS Illinois allowsvs D1 avg
54.7% #48
49.0% #70
+1.1 pt/100
18.4% #292
18.5% #75
-2.5 pt/100
29.5% #221
27.3% #44
-1.3 pt/100
30.2% #305
31.4% #95
-0.6 pt/100
74.5% #103
—
+0.2 pt/100
Washington St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.1 pts/100
S Illinois has the ball
OffenseWashington St allowsvs D1 avg
49.2% #286
52.6% #248
-0.8 pt/100
17.0% #207
14.6% #317
+1.5 pt/100
30.9% #167
28.2% #71
-0.4 pt/100
31.3% #275
33.0% #133
-0.4 pt/100
68.3% #321
—
-0.4 pt/100
S Illinois net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.4 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersWashington Stoffense vsS Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Washington St shoots
33.0
6.7
16.3
44.0
S Illinois allows
35.9
6.1
16.5
41.5
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.3%#48 | 58.1%#148 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.1%#243 | 36.2%#93 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.4%#98 | 42.4%#315 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.5%#40 | 30.4%#17 | 33.7% |
S Illinoisoffense vsWashington Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
S Illinois shoots
40.7
7.4
23.0
28.9
Washington St allows
38.1
7.3
17.9
36.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.7%#169 | 58.2%#152 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.9%#81 | 41.3%#218 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.0%#57 | 44.6%#345 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.8%#363 | 35.4%#273 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersWashington St
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#297 of 365
Off reb %
29.5%
#221
Def reb %
71.8%
#71
Turnover %
18.4%
#292
Forced TO %
14.6%
#317
FT rate
30.2%
#305
FT allowed
33.0%
#133
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.6
S Illinois
+2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#81 of 365
Off reb %
30.9%
#167
Def reb %
72.7%
#44
Turnover %
17.0%
#207
Forced TO %
18.5%
#75
FT rate
31.3%
#275
FT allowed
31.4%
#95
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers+1.2
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.0
S Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.3 (#81 of 365) to Washington St’s −2.8 (#297).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Washington St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Ace Glass | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-24 | 28.9 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 54.4% | 36.4% | 6.1 | 88.2% | 32.8% | |
| 2 | Eemeli Yalaho | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-27 | 28.3 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 57.8% | 39.8% | 4.0 | 79.7% | 20.6% | |
| 15 | Rihards Vavers | F | Jr | 6'7" | 29-16 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 62.1% | 41.2% | 6.1 | 88.9% | 22.2% | |
| 13 | Adria Rodriguez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 20.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 6.7% | 0.5 | 42.4% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | Simon Hildebrandt | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-2 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.5% | 37.0% | 2.5 | 71.9% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Tomas Thrastarson | G | So | 6'7" | 19-13 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 50.0% | 28.8% | 2.7 | 73.8% | 24.2% | |
| 0 | Emmanuel Ugbo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-6 | 18.1 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 23.1% | |
| 10 | Parker Gerrits | G | So | 6'2" | 31-0 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 54.8% | 37.5% | 1.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 51 | Kase Wynott | G | So | 6'6" | 5-0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.0 | — | 21.3% | |
| 7 | Dio Blakely | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 56.0% | |
| 4 | Brunel Madzou | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dominik Robinson | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
S Illinois2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quel'Ron House | G | So | 6'0" | 30-28 | 30.1 | 15.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 48.3% | 25.5% | 1.8 | 75.0% | 32.3% | |
| 10 | Damien Mayo Jr. | G | Sr | 6'3" | 31-25 | 25.4 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 53.5% | 37.1% | 3.1 | 78.4% | 21.1% | |
| 0 | Rolyns Aligbe | F | So | 6'9" | 32-32 | 24.4 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 51.6% | 34.8% | 2.2 | 66.2% | 23.4% | |
| 5 | Jalen Haynes | G | Fr | 6'4" | 32-7 | 20.8 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 46.3% | 20.5% | 2.4 | 78.2% | 24.9% | |
| 8 | Prince Aligbe | F | Sr | 6'7" | 30-29 | 22.1 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 44.5% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 56.1% | 23.8% | |
| 4 | Davion Sykes | G | Sr | 6'6" | 32-3 | 19.0 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 71.4% | 22.5% | |
| 9 | Isaiah Stafford | G | Sr | 6'2" | 16-4 | 19.1 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 43.4% | 20.4% | 3.1 | 75.8% | 25.0% | |
| 35 | Max Pikaar | F | So | 7'0" | 27-0 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 41.5% | 25.9% | 1.0 | 61.1% | 13.4% | |
| 25 | Jorge Moreno | F | Sr | 6'11" | 25-0 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 64.4% | — | 0.0 | 41.9% | 16.5% | |
| 33 | Jaheem Webber | C | Fr | 6'10" | 19-0 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 63.2% | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 11.7% | |
| 3 | Caden Hawkins | G | Jr | 6'0" | 15-0 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 0.7 | 44.4% | 16.1% | |
| 7 | Daniel Pauliukonis | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 14 | Luke Walsh | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Washington St2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Ace Glass | G | Fr | 6'3" | 32-24 | 28.9 | 16.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 54.4% | 36.4% | 6.1 | 88.2% | 32.8% | |
| 2 | Eemeli Yalaho | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-27 | 28.3 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 57.8% | 39.8% | 4.0 | 79.7% | 20.6% | |
| 15 | Rihards Vavers | F | Jr | 6'7" | 29-16 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 62.1% | 41.2% | 6.1 | 88.9% | 22.2% | |
| 13 | Adria Rodriguez | G | Sr | 6'4" | 32-11 | 20.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 40.9% | 6.7% | 0.5 | 42.4% | 16.7% | |
| 3 | Simon Hildebrandt | F | Sr | 6'9" | 32-2 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 56.5% | 37.0% | 2.5 | 71.9% | 18.3% | |
| 5 | Tomas Thrastarson | G | So | 6'7" | 19-13 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 50.0% | 28.8% | 2.7 | 73.8% | 24.2% | |
| 0 | Emmanuel Ugbo | F | Sr | 6'8" | 22-6 | 18.1 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 50.4% | 28.6% | 1.9 | 71.1% | 23.1% | |
| 10 | Parker Gerrits | G | So | 6'2" | 31-0 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 54.8% | 37.5% | 1.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 51 | Kase Wynott | G | So | 6'6" | 5-0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 62.5% | 40.0% | 2.0 | — | 21.3% | |
| 7 | Dio Blakely | G | Fr | 6'0" | 4-0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 56.0% | |
| 4 | Brunel Madzou | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Dominik Robinson | F | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Washington St
Against the spread
Season
15-16
Home
8-7
Road
6-6
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.6
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-15
Home
10-5
Road
5-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +1.0
Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | Portland | N | L 68–74 | −5.5 | L−11.5 | 150.0 | U142 | 97.7 | 106.3 | 69.6 |
| Feb 28 | Pepperdine | A | L 79–88 | −8.0 | L−17.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 104.6 | 116.6 | 75.5 |
| Feb 25 | LMU | A | L 66–67 | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 148.0 | U133 | 97.1 | 98.6 | 68.0 |
| Feb 21 | Saint Mary's | H | L 67–83 | +8.5 | L−7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 106.5 | 131.9 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Pacific | H | W 87–70 | −2.5 | W+14.5 | 143.5 | O157 | 132.8 | 106.8 | 65.5 |
| Feb 10 | #12Gonzaga | A | L 53–83 | +21.5 | L−8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 74.8 | 117.1 | 70.9 |
| Feb 7 | Santa Clara | H | L 92–96 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | O188 | 129.8 | 135.5 | 70.9 |
| Feb 4 | Oregon St | A | L 64–74 | −2.0 | L−12.0 | 148.0 | U138 | 94.7 | 109.5 | 67.6 |
| Jan 31 | Portland | H | W 104–74 | −8.5 | W+21.5 | 152.0 | O178 | 145.2 | 103.3 | 71.6 |
| Jan 28 | Seattle U | H | W 70–58 | −2.5 | W+9.5 | 142.5 | U128 | 102.9 | 85.2 | 68.1 |
S Illinois
Against the spread
Season
16-15
Home
5-8
Road
10-5
Last 10
7-3
avg cover +3.0
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
9-22
Home
4-9
Road
5-10
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −10.8
Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Drake | N | L 63–67 | −4.5 | L−8.5 | 138.0 | U130 | 97.8 | 104.0 | 64.4 |
| Mar 1 | Evansville | A | W 81–67 | −9.0 | W+5.0 | 139.5 | O148 | 126.8 | 104.9 | 63.9 |
| Feb 25 | Indiana St | H | W 66–55 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | U121 | 93.4 | 77.8 | 70.7 |
| Feb 21 | Northern Iowa | A | W 59–57 | +6.5 | W+8.5 | 134.5 | U116 | 96.2 | 92.9 | 61.3 |
| Feb 18 | Drake | A | W 66–61 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 150.0 | U127 | 93.5 | 86.4 | 70.6 |
| Feb 15 | Bradley | H | L 60–70 | −2.5 | L−12.5 | 147.0 | U130 | 86.8 | 101.2 | 69.2 |
| Feb 12 | Evansville | H | W 86–60 | −12.0 | W+14.0 | 142.5 | O146 | 126.4 | 88.2 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | Indiana St | A | W 80–65 | −1.5 | W+13.5 | 147.5 | U145 | 107.2 | 87.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 6 | Murray St | H | L 81–91 | +1.0 | L−9.0 | 158.0 | O172 | 110.8 | 124.4 | 73.1 |
| Feb 3 | Illinois St | A | W 54–50 | +9.0 | W+13.0 | 141.5 | U104 | 79.5 | 73.6 | 67.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWashington StS Illinois
Efficiency
110.7
105.5
110.6
102.2
68.7
69.4
—
—
Shooting
54.7%
49.2%
54.6%
52.2%
36.5%
27.8%
74.5%
68.3%
30.2%
31.3%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
17.0%
14.6%
18.5%
29.5%
30.9%
28.2%
27.3%
10.1%
9.7%
9.6%
8.5%
Style
44.8%
29.2%
38.9%
52.3%
11.7%
15.8%
51.6%
48.6%
34.1%
33.2%
Roster
2.77
2.83
6'6"
6'5.2"
75.9%
84.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWashington St
Returning minutes: 75.9%Returning production: 73.1%
Lost
- Jerone Morton 24.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- ND Okafor 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
- Dominik Robinson no D1 minutes last season
- Brunel Madzou no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 76% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
S Illinois
Returning minutes: 84.8%Returning production: 87.9%
Lost
- Drew Steffe 30.8 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Buffalo
Added
- Daniel Pauliukonis no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Walsh no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.