CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferencePatrick Gymnasium, Burlington, VT

Princeton

Efficiency #251

2025-26: 9-20 · 5-9 conf

Vermont

Efficiency #199

2025-26: 22-12 · 14-5 conf

Thu, Dec 3 · 6:00 PM ET

66.7

win 31%

Projected

72.3

win 69%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVM −5.6 · total 139.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Vermont 66.5, Princeton 66.1 → 64.3 possessions

−8.8

Vermont offense vs Princeton defense

+0.7

Princeton offense vs Vermont defense

−1.2

Projected total

139.0

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Vermont offense vs Princeton defense

+0.7

Princeton offense vs Vermont defense

+1.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Vermont by 5.6

5.6

Princeton side ◂▸ Vermont side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 138.9 against a projected 139.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Vermont.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 64.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Princeton is the faster team (64.5, #342 of 365) and Vermont the slower (64.4, #346). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

64.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

139.0

model

Projected team totals

66.7 / 72.3

Princeton / Vermont

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.1#341

Princeton

66.5#317

Vermont

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

Vermont averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Princeton 64.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 63 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageVermont

Where Vermont scores: ball control

Vermont turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#35); Princeton forces turnovers on 14.3% of opponent possessions (#327). Expect about 13.8%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantagePrinceton

Where Princeton struggles: the offensive glass

Princeton rebounds 27.2% of its own misses (#287); Vermont lets opponents grab 23.0% of their own misses (#2). Expect about 24.6%, 5.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.5 points per 100 possessions.

GlassVermont

Vermont gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.5% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Vermont's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Princeton's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Princeton at about 44.6% of its shots from three, Vermont about 44.8%.

ClashPrinceton

Style match: paint scoring

Princeton gets only 36.7% of its points in the paint; Vermont protects the paint (37.6% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 39.6% — both habits push the same way.

Princeton has the ball

OffenseVermont allowsvs D1 avg

49.6% #260

50.4% #121

-2.0 pt/100

17.1% #211

14.8% #305

+1.4 pt/100

27.2% #287

23.0% #2

-3.5 pt/100

34.6% #192

36.4% #226

+0.1 pt/100

74.8% #90

—

+0.2 pt/100

Princeton net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100

Vermont has the ball

OffensePrinceton allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #95

52.0% #209

+2.1 pt/100

14.3% #35

14.3% #327

+3.7 pt/100

26.2% #318

28.5% #82

-2.4 pt/100

31.1% #279

34.0% #152

-0.3 pt/100

71.9% #213

—

-0.0 pt/100

Vermont net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.0 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Princetonoffense vsVermontdefense

Share of shots by zone

Princeton shoots

35.0

4.3

16.2

44.5

Vermont allows

33.7

7.7

18.0

40.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.0%#341	57.1%#118	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.0%#65	41.9%#230	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.5%#170	35.1%#80	38.0%
Three	33.9%#177	35.3%#267	33.7%

Vermontoffense vsPrincetondefense

Share of shots by zone

Vermont shoots

36.8

5.9

12.8

44.5

Princeton allows

41.0

5.0

14.1

39.9

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	62.5%#61	61.4%#283	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.0%#23	45.1%#301	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.3%#104	42.3%#313	38.0%
Three	33.3%#208	31.1%#36	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Princeton

−2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#268 of 365

Off reb %

27.2%

#287

Def reb %

71.5%

#82

Turnover %

17.1%

#211

Forced TO %

14.3%

#327

FT rate

34.6%

#192

FT allowed

34.0%

#152

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security−0.2

Forcing turnovers−1.7

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Vermont

+0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#174 of 365

Off reb %

26.2%

#318

Def reb %

77.0%

Turnover %

14.3%

#35

Forced TO %

14.8%

#305

FT rate

31.1%

#279

FT allowed

36.4%

#226

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.4

Defensive rebounding+2.5

Ball security+1.7

Forcing turnovers−1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.3

Vermont has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.2 (#174 of 365) to Princeton’s −2.0 (#268).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Princeton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Princeton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
33	Jackson Hicke	G	Jr	6'5"	29-29	34.0	15.4	5.2	2.4	1.9	54.3%	39.8%	4.2	83.2%	27.7%
8	Landon Clark	G	Fr	6'8"	29-22	28.8	6.0	4.0	1.8	1.1	52.0%	35.6%	3.6	73.1%	14.6%
7	Malik Abdullahi	F	So	6'7"	27-25	28.5	9.7	5.7	1.3	1.5	56.7%	9.1%	0.8	72.1%	20.7%
21	Jack Stanton	G	So	6'2"	23-22	31.0	10.9	3.5	1.7	0.9	54.8%	37.7%	6.6	93.8%	20.0%
12	Jacob Huggins	F	Jr	6'8"	29-5	21.2	4.8	4.3	1.7	0.7	38.9%	30.0%	0.7	61.9%	17.5%
22	Dalen Davis	G	Jr	6'0"	20-15	27.7	14.7	2.5	2.3	2.1	45.8%	39.0%	4.1	89.4%	35.6%
4	CJ Happy	F	So	6'9"	25-24	18.4	6.8	2.6	1.6	1.3	48.2%	30.5%	3.3	36.0%	28.4%
23	Sebastian Whitfield	F	Fr	6'6"	29-3	12.5	3.4	1.9	0.5	0.8	43.0%	27.3%	1.5	60.0%	22.2%
24	Jacob Hammond	F	Fr	6'6"	23-0	7.1	2.3	1.2	0.2	0.5	40.2%	5.6%	0.8	72.2%	26.3%
2	Peyton Seals	G	So	6'4"	18-0	8.7	2.0	1.3	0.3	0.4	48.4%	29.2%	1.3	100.0%	16.9%
11	Jake Sussberg	G	Fr	6'5"	19-0	6.7	2.3	1.1	0.2	0.2	53.0%	34.6%	1.4	72.7%	19.8%
15	Cash McSweeney	F	Fr	6'8"	14-0	5.6	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.8	38.5%	28.6%	0.5	25.0%	19.5%
5	Zio Kim	G	So	6'4"	8-0	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	83.3%	50.0%	0.3	100.0%	26.3%
6	Ryan Mandes	G	Fr	6'3"	8-0	1.3	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	8.6%
0	Will Kutzler	F	Jr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
66	Cooper Mueller	G	Jr	6'3"	2-0	2.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	1.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	57.8%
10	Lucas Denault	G	Jr	6'3"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Vermont2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	TJ Hurley	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.9	15.0	3.5	1.4	0.9	58.1%	38.5%	6.0	87.3%	25.8%
20	TJ Long	G	Sr	6'4"	29-17	29.6	12.1	4.8	1.1	1.1	48.2%	31.4%	6.5	79.7%	26.7%
19	Gus Yalden	F	So	6'9"	31-30	25.5	16.1	5.8	2.1	1.7	56.1%	34.7%	3.8	67.3%	37.9%
34	Noah Barnett	F	So	6'9"	31-25	22.3	5.8	3.6	0.5	0.4	66.8%	50.0%	0.1	64.1%	13.3%
24	Ben Johnson	G	Sr	6'3"	34-17	18.2	5.4	2.1	1.1	0.3	59.7%	42.2%	3.2	72.2%	16.2%
21	Lucas Mari	G	Fr	6'6"	30-8	20.0	4.9	4.0	1.7	1.2	46.5%	26.3%	2.5	70.0%	18.8%
2	Ben Michaels	F	So	6'8"	31-11	13.1	2.0	2.2	0.4	0.5	38.3%	9.1%	0.7	62.5%	13.2%
1	Momo Nkugwa	G	Fr	6'3"	29-0	13.1	3.0	2.3	0.7	0.4	54.9%	25.0%	1.1	47.4%	15.0%
4	Jackson Skipper	F	Sr	6'7"	29-1	8.5	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.5	43.9%	27.3%	1.1	76.9%	17.6%
0	David Simon	F	So	6'11"	18-0	10.6	3.4	2.2	0.3	0.6	70.7%	57.1%	0.4	36.4%	18.6%
32	Trey Woodyard	F	Sr	6'6"	4-0	8.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	40.0%	1.3	—	13.6%
12	Ben Wesson	G	Fr	6'4"	7-0	2.3	1.9	0.3	0.1	0.1	85.7%	66.7%	0.4	50.0%	32.4%
25	Sincere Clemons	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	2.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	50.0%	26.3%
15	Drew Bessette	F	Fr	6'8"	5-0	2.4	0.4	1.4	0.2	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.6	—	19.0%
13	Chris Kuzemka	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Princeton2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Princeton's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
33	Jackson Hicke	G	Jr	6'5"	29-29	34.0	15.4	5.2	2.4	1.9	54.3%	39.8%	4.2	83.2%	27.7%
8	Landon Clark	G	Fr	6'8"	29-22	28.8	6.0	4.0	1.8	1.1	52.0%	35.6%	3.6	73.1%	14.6%
7	Malik Abdullahi	F	So	6'7"	27-25	28.5	9.7	5.7	1.3	1.5	56.7%	9.1%	0.8	72.1%	20.7%
21	Jack Stanton	G	So	6'2"	23-22	31.0	10.9	3.5	1.7	0.9	54.8%	37.7%	6.6	93.8%	20.0%
12	Jacob Huggins	F	Jr	6'8"	29-5	21.2	4.8	4.3	1.7	0.7	38.9%	30.0%	0.7	61.9%	17.5%
22	Dalen Davis	G	Jr	6'0"	20-15	27.7	14.7	2.5	2.3	2.1	45.8%	39.0%	4.1	89.4%	35.6%
4	CJ Happy	F	So	6'9"	25-24	18.4	6.8	2.6	1.6	1.3	48.2%	30.5%	3.3	36.0%	28.4%
23	Sebastian Whitfield	F	Fr	6'6"	29-3	12.5	3.4	1.9	0.5	0.8	43.0%	27.3%	1.5	60.0%	22.2%
24	Jacob Hammond	F	Fr	6'6"	23-0	7.1	2.3	1.2	0.2	0.5	40.2%	5.6%	0.8	72.2%	26.3%
2	Peyton Seals	G	So	6'4"	18-0	8.7	2.0	1.3	0.3	0.4	48.4%	29.2%	1.3	100.0%	16.9%
11	Jake Sussberg	G	Fr	6'5"	19-0	6.7	2.3	1.1	0.2	0.2	53.0%	34.6%	1.4	72.7%	19.8%
15	Cash McSweeney	F	Fr	6'8"	14-0	5.6	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.8	38.5%	28.6%	0.5	25.0%	19.5%
5	Zio Kim	G	So	6'4"	8-0	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.1	83.3%	50.0%	0.3	100.0%	26.3%
6	Ryan Mandes	G	Fr	6'3"	8-0	1.3	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	0.0%	8.6%
0	Will Kutzler	F	Jr	6'7"	4-0	1.5	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
66	Cooper Mueller	G	Jr	6'3"	2-0	2.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	1.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.5	—	57.8%
10	Lucas Denault	G	Jr	6'3"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Princeton

Against the spread

Season

15-12-1

Home

7-4

Road

5-7-1

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

13-15

Home

4-7

Road

6-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.7

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	YaleAdjEM #57	A	L 53–78	+14.0	L−11.0	137.0	U131	79.6	117.2	66.6
Feb 28	DartmouthAdjEM #254	H	W 82–61	−2.0	W+19.0	141.5	O143	126.9	94.4	64.6
Feb 27	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 56–58	+4.0	W+2.0	129.5	U114	93.3	96.6	60.0
Feb 20	BrownAdjEM #275	A	L 71–80	+3.0	L−6.0	130.0	O151	110.7	124.7	64.1
Feb 14	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	H	L 65–75	+1.5	L−8.5	136.5	O140	115.5	133.2	56.3
Feb 13	CornellAdjEM #135	H	L 65–89	+3.5	L−20.5	154.5	U154	102.7	140.6	63.3
Feb 7	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 60–61	+3.5	W+2.5	145.0	U121	102.8	104.5	58.4
Jan 31	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 80–68	+5.5	W+17.5	139.0	O148	129.0	109.6	62.0
Jan 30	CornellAdjEM #135	A	L 64–87	+7.0	L−16.0	159.5	U151	104.1	141.5	61.5
Jan 24	BrownAdjEM #275	H	W 63–53	−4.5	W+5.5	133.5	U116	98.7	83.1	63.8

Vermont

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

8-6

Road

5-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.2

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-15

Home

6-8

Road

8-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −3.8

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 59–74	+1.5	L−13.5	134.5	U133	92.1	115.5	64.0
Mar 10	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 63–54	−11.5	L−2.5	135.0	U117	99.6	85.4	63.2
Mar 7	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 77–57	−12.0	W+8.0	131.5	O134	129.5	95.9	59.5
Mar 3	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	W 69–56	−9.0	W+4.0	137.0	U125	112.9	91.7	61.1
Feb 26	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	H	W 66–64	−9.0	L−7.0	146.5	U130	101.5	98.4	65.0
Feb 21	NJITAdjEM #331	A	W 70–64	−6.5	L−0.5	142.0	U134	110.2	100.8	63.5
Feb 19	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 62–75	−2.0	L−15.0	142.0	U137	92.1	111.4	67.3
Feb 14	BryantAdjEM #347	H	W 90–63	−12.5	W+14.5	133.0	O153	134.8	94.4	66.8
Feb 12	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	A	W 73–65	−11.0	L−3.0	136.0	O138	111.3	99.1	65.6
Feb 7	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 80–57	−10.0	W+13.0	138.0	U137	117.9	84.0	67.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

PrincetonVermont

Efficiency

105.7

108.2

109.9

109.4

66.1

66.5

—

Shooting

49.6%

53.1%

48.6%

55.7%

33.9%

33.3%

74.8%

71.9%

34.6%

31.1%

Ball control & glass

17.1%

14.3%

14.8%

27.2%

26.2%

28.5%

23.0%

10.2%

8.3%

10.3%

8.3%

Style

44.5%

44.6%

36.7%

41.8%

4.4%

5.5%

55.0%

47.9%

27.9%

34.4%

Roster

2.10

2.78

6'5.6"

6'6.1"

—

85.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Princeton

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Princeton's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Vermont

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 85.6%

Lost

Sean Blake 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Ball State

Added

Chris Kuzemka no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Dec 30	2025-26	Vermont 69 – 75 Princeton
Wed, Nov 26	2025-26	Vermont 79 – 74 Princeton(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.