CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceColonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

South Carolina

Efficiency #123

2025-26: 13-19 · 4-15 conf

Tue, Nov 3 · TBD

67.9

win 15%

Projected

79.7

win 85%

No line posted yet.

Model: SC −11.8 · total 147.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Carolina 67.6, Stetson 67.9 → 67.2 possessions

−2.3

South Carolina offense vs Stetson defense

+4.9

Stetson offense vs South Carolina defense

−3.1

Projected total

147.7

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Carolina offense vs Stetson defense

+4.9

Stetson offense vs South Carolina defense

+3.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

South Carolina by 11.8

11.8

Stetson side ◂▸ South Carolina side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +11.9 against +11.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Carolina.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Carolina is the faster team (68.0, #202 of 365) and Stetson the slower (67.9, #208). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

147.7

model

Projected team totals

67.9 / 79.7

Stetson / South Carolina

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

67.6#241

South Carolina

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouth Carolina

Where South Carolina scores: ball control

South Carolina turns it over on 14.5% of possessions (#42); Stetson forces turnovers on 15.1% of opponent possessions (#271). Expect about 14.4%, 2.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions.

ClashStetson

Style match: ball movement

Stetson assists on 58.5% of its made baskets; South Carolina allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.5% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (South Carolina) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Stetson at about 41.3% of its shots from three, South Carolina about 44.5%.

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson scores: shooting

Stetson shoots an effective 53.1% (#96); South Carolina allows 51.6% (#188). Expect about 52.5%, 1.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.7 points per 100 possessions.

ClashStetson

Style clash: 3-point volume

Stetson takes 44.7% of its shots from three; South Carolina runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 41.3% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashStetson

Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting

Stetson (#59 in 3-point shooting) against South Carolina (#56 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 34.0%. Historically Stetson's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).

Stetson has the ball

OffenseSouth Carolina allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

51.6% #188

+1.7 pt/100

18.1% #277

14.6% #314

+0.7 pt/100

26.6% #308

32.1% #263

-1.1 pt/100

32.4% #250

34.0% #151

-0.2 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.9 pts/100

South Carolina has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

50.3% #226

55.2% #338

+2.1 pt/100

14.5% #42

15.1% #271

+2.9 pt/100

27.2% #289

31.8% #250

-1.0 pt/100

36.7% #137

30.4% #71

-0.2 pt/100

78.1% #14

—

+0.5 pt/100

South Carolina net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsSouth Carolinadefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

South Carolina allows

38.5

7.1

18.2

36.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	63.9%#340	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	35.3%#65	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	40.5%#258	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	31.8%#56	33.7%

South Carolinaoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

South Carolina shoots

33.0

7.1

15.4

44.5

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#130	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.8%#200	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.4%#32	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	31.1%#317	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

South Carolina

−0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#203 of 365

Off reb %

27.2%

#289

Def reb %

67.9%

#263

Turnover %

14.5%

#42

Forced TO %

14.6%

#314

FT rate

36.7%

#137

FT allowed

34.0%

#151

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn+0.4

Foul shots allowed+0.3

South Carolina has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.6 (#203 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Carolina2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
15	Eli Ellis	G	Fr	6'0"	28-0	26.9	8.6	2.8	2.0	1.0	44.2%	28.0%	2.9	87.9%	20.8%
10	Myles Stute	G	Sr	6'7"	27-24	23.3	5.6	3.7	0.9	1.0	47.6%	30.9%	4.1	64.0%	16.8%
31	Elijah Strong	F	Jr	6'8"	32-18	17.1	10.0	2.3	0.9	0.9	49.3%	27.8%	3.0	75.9%	36.1%
13	Grant Polk	G	Fr	6'6"	30-0	12.9	3.8	1.1	0.1	0.2	51.5%	32.9%	2.6	90.9%	17.1%
6	EJ Walker	F	Fr	6'7"	22-6	15.9	2.9	2.7	0.4	0.8	49.1%	24.1%	1.3	47.1%	13.9%
24	Nordin Kapic	F	Sr	6'8"	22-4	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.4	0.4	52.1%	34.0%	2.1	69.2%	21.7%
20	Hayden Assemian	F	Fr	6'6"	24-4	9.8	2.4	2.5	0.3	0.5	69.4%	—	0.0	57.1%	13.7%
0	Jordan Butler	F	Jr	7'0"	25-4	8.9	2.8	1.8	0.2	0.2	53.4%	25.0%	0.8	77.4%	17.1%
14	Eli Sparkman	G	Sr	6'0"	12-0	3.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.0	42.9%	28.6%	0.6	—	9.7%
7	Abu Yarmah	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
23	Cam Scott	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

South Carolina

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-12-1

Road

7-3

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 5 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-16-1

Home

9-10

Road

3-6-1

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −2.5

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 10 as an underdogOver in 1 of 5 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	OklahomaAdjEM #47	N	L 74–86	+8.0	L−4.0	149.0	O160	116.1	134.9	63.8
Mar 7	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 64–61	+7.0	W+10.0	147.0	U125	96.5	92.0	66.3
Mar 3	#23TennesseeAdjEM #13	H	L 59–78	+11.0	L−8.0	142.0	U137	95.8	126.6	61.6
Feb 28	GeorgiaAdjEM #32	A	L 68–87	+12.5	L−6.5	159.0	U155	107.0	136.9	63.5
Feb 24	KentuckyAdjEM #27	H	L 63–72	+7.5	L−1.5	151.0	U135	87.7	100.3	71.8
Feb 21	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 97–89	+1.0	W+9.0	152.0	O186	133.7	122.7	72.5
Feb 17	#12FloridaAdjEM #5	A	L 62–76	+23.0	W+9.0	155.0	U138	92.5	113.4	67.0
Feb 14	AlabamaAdjEM #18	A	L 75–89	+18.0	W+4.0	169.5	U164	99.1	117.6	75.7
Feb 7	MissouriAdjEM #67	H	L 59–78	+3.0	L−16.0	147.0	U137	90.0	119.0	65.5
Feb 3	TexasAdjEM #38	A	L 75–84	+13.5	W+4.5	149.5	O159	109.9	123.1	68.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonSouth Carolina

Efficiency

105.1

109.7

114.4

107.3

67.9

67.6

—

Shooting

53.1%

50.3%

52.5%

53.2%

36.0%

31.1%

69.2%

78.1%

32.4%

36.7%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

14.5%

15.1%

14.6%

26.6%

27.2%

31.8%

32.1%

11.5%

9.3%

7.7%

11.1%

Style

44.7%

44.4%

40.0%

39.4%

12.2%

8.7%

58.5%

52.9%

32.8%

35.7%

Roster

2.80

2.25

6'4.7"

6'5.7"

—

52.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Carolina

Returning minutes: 52.6%Returning production: 42.7%

Lost

Meechie Johnson 31.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Kobe Knox 29.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Mike Sharavjamts 29.7 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christ Essandoko 4.9 mpg, 1.3 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

Abu Yarmah no D1 minutes last season
Cam Scott no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 53% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 6	2025-26	Stetson 51 – 82 South Carolina

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.